Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

No offense, but you're such a conspiracy nut often times.

that's a funny accusation coming from you, the original 2011 conspiracy nut.  a time when i was denouncing it:

The Manipulator

[cypherdoc]

no reaction yet. not that i'm expecting anything:

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/519908666670329857

no mo selling pressure:

[cypherdoc]

listen to David Seaman's despair and anger.  this is called Capitulation.  sad, but this is no market for the naive and weak minded:

http://davidseaman.libsyn.com/bitcoin-crash-analysis

[Peter R]

My quick and dirty valuation of BTC in 2020 is also based on M2.  Not completely incomprehensible that BTC could be 5% of M2 by 2020, or $2300 or so per BTC.

This would imply that you're also predicting a significant change in bitcoin's historical growth rate starting now.  What would make you believe that growth would be vastly slower moving forward?

Peter, (correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that dot at about $4000 not $2300) that aside when I say the graph it looked a lot like the Bitcoin inflation curve, giving this meager projection more validity.

It got me thinking that the growth in network value and demand with a fixed supply (diminishing inflation) that the relationship would decouple over time as the price would rise as supply shrinks, and that wasn't evident in your model.

I guess that is what Marcus was thinking here by using the market cap which accommodates inflation.

Total BTC value (CAP) and number BTC TXS squared excluding popular addresses (with a simple exponential fit line). Data from Blockchain.info.

On current trend of ~4years, CAP ~$100 billion Aug. 2015, $1 Trillion Aug. 2016 (after next halving) ... unless TXS hit some limit.

Adrian, the Metcalfe value charts I plot always use market cap, including this one.  I just annotated it with the $2300/BTC prediction made earlier in the thread to visually show the sharp decline in the growth rate that such a prediction implied.  

Here's the math to explain why the point is at ~$4 x 10^10:
In 2020, there should be approximately 18 million or so coins: (18x10^6 BTC) x ($2300/BTC) ~ $42 billion ~ $4x10^10, as indicated.  So, yes, the chart is correct.  

[cypherdoc]

all the different Bitcoin buckets continue to fill up with raining fiat except for the price bucket:

http://www.coindesk.com/state-of-bitcoin-q3-2014-report-maturing-ecosystem-price-pressure/

[blaaaaacksuit]

listen to David Seaman's despair and anger.  this is called Capitulation.  sad, but this is no market for the naive and weak minded:

http://davidseaman.libsyn.com/bitcoin-crash-analysis

Yea I was listening to that during bearwhales final hour,  I felt really bad for that guy, twitter was just laughing in his face. 

[Adrian-x]

Andreas talking to a committee of Canadian senators: http://senparlvu.parl.gc.ca/Guide.aspx?viewmode=4&categoryid=-1&eventid=9692&Language=E#

Just wow, I thought this went very well.

[Adrian-x]

Adrian, the Metcalfe value charts I plot always use market cap, including this one.  I just annotated it with the $2300/BTC prediction made earlier in the thread to visually show the sharp decline in the growth rate that such a prediction implied.  

Here's the math to explain why the point is at ~$4 x 10^10:
In 2020, there should be approximately 18 million or so coins: (18x10^6 BTC) x ($2300/BTC) ~ $42 billion ~ $4x10^10, as indicated.  So, yes, the chart is correct.  

Thanks I've got it.
On that point do you see the model scaling while Bitcoins become more scarce? I guess it will as any huge deviation would encourage either spending or saving.

[cypherdoc]

Andreas talking to a committee of Canadian senators: http://senparlvu.parl.gc.ca/Guide.aspx?viewmode=4&categoryid=-1&eventid=9692&Language=E#

Just wow, I thought this went very well.

why can't i open the *.wmv file?

[cypherdoc]

[sidhujag]

Andreas talking to a committee of Canadian senators: http://senparlvu.parl.gc.ca/Guide.aspx?viewmode=4&categoryid=-1&eventid=9692&Language=E#

Just wow, I thought this went very well.

Yea he nailed it

[vuduchyld]

That's great info, cypherdoc!

[tabnloz]

Andreas talking to a committee of Canadian senators: http://senparlvu.parl.gc.ca/Guide.aspx?viewmode=4&categoryid=-1&eventid=9692&Language=E#

Just wow, I thought this went very well.

why can't i open the *.wmv file?

The youtube link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUNGFZDO8mM

[bitrider]

Andreas talking to a committee of Canadian senators: http://senparlvu.parl.gc.ca/Guide.aspx?viewmode=4&categoryid=-1&eventid=9692&Language=E#

Just wow, I thought this went very well.

Yes, an amazing performance. He rocked it! Very bull.  

[cypherdoc]

Andreas talking to a committee of Canadian senators: http://senparlvu.parl.gc.ca/Guide.aspx?viewmode=4&categoryid=-1&eventid=9692&Language=E#

Just wow, I thought this went very well.

why can't i open the *.wmv file?

The youtube link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUNGFZDO8mM

thx, converting to mp3 to listen on my way to Hasher's United.

[NewLiberty]

Loaded == Pantera guy

 

I'd have guessed he's Exante, Pantera is late to the party.

[Bagatell]

No offense, but you're such a conspiracy nut often times.

that's a funny accusation coming from you, the original 2011 conspiracy nut.  a time when i was denouncing it:

The Manipulator

Tinfoil - the new gold! 

[ErisDiscordia]

Further anecdotal evidence providing support for cypherdocs theory:

lol, this just now:


https://blockchain.info/en/tx/6ce42871e8de34b319db37300a07542c11437d000b61bbd8fe65ac6d8e9158f3

this is Bitstamp cold storage address, which now reveal something interesting, these last transactions were made to refill the hot wallet so people who bought that 30K wall can withdraw their coins, but this is not the interesting thing, however there were only 148KBTC in that wallet a couple of weeks back, so this means the owner of the wall already had his coins at stamp all the time and he didn't send them there like some guys suggested here.

what is interesting, or rather annoying is that even after Gox people still leave their coins at exchanges...

I like a good (conspiracy) theory and this one makes a lot of sense!

[shields]

listen to David Seaman's despair and anger.  this is called Capitulation.  sad, but this is no market for the naive and weak minded:

http://davidseaman.libsyn.com/bitcoin-crash-analysis

WTF, this guy's been on TV doing interviews about Bitcoin in the past, and now he thinks it's finished because of a moderate (in the grand scheme of things) short-term drop in price.

[cypherdoc]

listen to David Seaman's despair and anger.  this is called Capitulation.  sad, but this is no market for the naive and weak minded:

http://davidseaman.libsyn.com/bitcoin-crash-analysis

WTF, this guy's been on TV doing interviews about Bitcoin in the past, and now he thinks it's finished because of a moderate (in the grand scheme of things) short-term drop in price.

Yup. Bitcoin up 21% since he recorded that aka capitulated.

 Most ppl investing in cryptocurrencies are going to lose money-cypherdoc

David is no exception.