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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1803499 times)
Carlton Banks
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August 14, 2014, 08:59:52 PM
 #10601

Are your bitcoins in your Coinbase or Circle really sitting idle in cold storage, or are they being used to short the market?

With the current design of exchanges and web wallets, it's impossible to know.

Don't get me wrong, it's not like I'm saying "This kind of market movement is impossible", that's certainly not the case. But at the moment, as Justus rightly points out, we're simply taking the "good" word of these people that these are real market forces playing out. And there's a more than plausible range of scenarios under which serious finagling could be taking place.

To put it another way, the idea that these exchanges are happily operating totally freely & under zero political pressure is the least plausible version of reality. How and to what extent that's manifesting, I do not know.

I'll remind everyone of an observation I've made in the past: the significant differences in price chart characteristics between fiat-holding exchanges and localbitcoins.com, specifically the extra high buy prices. This phenomenon is still with us, not entirely confined to the extant part of the volume range, and is so consistent over the long term that it cannot all be attributed to accidents. These buyers are either foolish, desperate, or both. These figures are much more believable as a cross section of what decisions real traders make when fully considering their actions. Note that the bottoms exhibited on the fiat-centralised exchanges don't really appear on localbitcoins, and in fact, the negative volatility is significantly dampened (i.e. significant skew towards price increases). Is this because traders are operating at mammal based decision making speeds, or is it just because these are actually all real trades with real money?

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vuduchyld
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August 14, 2014, 09:47:33 PM
 #10602

It doesn't look like it to me, the market is now locked into a new long term downtrend ... by fair means or foul the banksters want cheap coinz ... and people seem to be willing to sell them ever lower. It appears to me to be some kind of algorithm that is designed to walk the market steadily lower, after each dump, new blocking sell walls spring up of a consistent size and interval above market to cap any bounce back rallies developing.
Bitcoin needs a new Silk Road.

As long as price discovery takes place on the exchanges, instead of via supply and demand for commerce, the banksters can play their tricks very easily.

The only killer app for Bitcoin is to enable commerce that would otherwise impossible, and that means the black market.

Note that the black market doesn't imply violent or destructive - it can be as ordinary and benign as operating a lemonade stand without a permit from the city, or participating in a ride sharing service without a taxi license.

Bitcoin needs to give people access to things they can't have without it. A safe and pleasant drug buying experience was a great start, but it's time to think bigger now.

pr0n?
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August 14, 2014, 10:55:23 PM
 #10603


Did BTC just dip into the $400's?!?  Who could have guessed?


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August 14, 2014, 10:57:41 PM
 #10604

It doesn't look like it to me, the market is now locked into a new long term downtrend ... by fair means or foul the banksters want cheap coinz ... and people seem to be willing to sell them ever lower. It appears to me to be some kind of algorithm that is designed to walk the market steadily lower, after each dump, new blocking sell walls spring up of a consistent size and interval above market to cap any bounce back rallies developing.
Bitcoin needs a new Silk Road.

As long as price discovery takes place on the exchanges, instead of via supply and demand for commerce, the banksters can play their tricks very easily.

The only killer app for Bitcoin is to enable commerce that would otherwise impossible, and that means the black market.

Note that the black market doesn't imply violent or destructive - it can be as ordinary and benign as operating a lemonade stand without a permit from the city, or participating in a ride sharing service without a taxi license.

Bitcoin needs to give people access to things they can't have without it. A safe and pleasant drug buying experience was a great start, but it's time to think bigger now.

Adoption is proceeding fine IMHO, the number of new services combined with steady/accelerating merchant adoption shows the future direction.

2013 was a crazy speculative year. The price ran up 10,000% from $10 to $1,000 in around 12 months, yet adoption (although growing exponentially) definitely did not grow 10,000% in the same time period. This is why 2013 was a speculative bubble. That does not mean such speculation was wrong, but it was driven by expectation for future adoption that has not yet been realized.

2014 is a pause and catch up year (and maybe 2015 and 2016 too). Adoption is growing which continues to increase the "floor" price, however the price is still ahead of adoption.

Going forward we are starting to see merchants offer BTC discounts (because it saves them money), this will grow adoption. It seems some parts of the porn industry are waking up to BTC as a way to bypass 40% fees and chargebacks, this will grow adoption. We will have OpenBazaar coming up as a global ebay, this will grow adoption. We will have all these VCs services start to come online, this will grow adoption. We can list dozens of other areas, these all will grow adoption.

The end result will be a higher BTC price, but don't be surprised if adoption takes a while to catch-up to the 2013 10,000% run in the price and/or for the price to stall for some time.
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August 15, 2014, 12:17:49 AM
 #10605


Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
kodtycoon
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August 15, 2014, 12:19:20 AM
 #10606



could you explain briefly how those circles work? it looks like anyone could just draw those no matter the chart and they would work??

"Pioneering a revolutionary novel consensus mechanism called proof of importance."
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August 15, 2014, 12:24:04 AM
 #10607



could you explain briefly how those circles work? it looks like anyone could just draw those no matter the chart and they would work??

YUP!
its that easy
draw circles around what is clearly consolidation periods after price spikes, and you reveal an interesting piece of info.

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August 15, 2014, 12:29:58 AM
 #10608



LOL where r u ?

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blumangroup
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August 15, 2014, 01:04:09 AM
 #10609

It doesn't look like it to me, the market is now locked into a new long term downtrend ... by fair means or foul the banksters want cheap coinz ... and people seem to be willing to sell them ever lower. It appears to me to be some kind of algorithm that is designed to walk the market steadily lower, after each dump, new blocking sell walls spring up of a consistent size and interval above market to cap any bounce back rallies developing.
Bitcoin needs a new Silk Road.

As long as price discovery takes place on the exchanges, instead of via supply and demand for commerce, the banksters can play their tricks very easily.

The only killer app for Bitcoin is to enable commerce that would otherwise impossible, and that means the black market.

Note that the black market doesn't imply violent or destructive - it can be as ordinary and benign as operating a lemonade stand without a permit from the city, or participating in a ride sharing service without a taxi license.

Bitcoin needs to give people access to things they can't have without it. A safe and pleasant drug buying experience was a great start, but it's time to think bigger now.

As far as I can tell there are already a couple markets that have filled the void left behind by the Silk Road. People simply need to regain confidence in the security of black market purchases. The about busting an internet marketplace is that nothing significant is really lost. The majority of the userbase remains unscathed and when there's a userbase, there's always a vendor willing to sell.

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Hfleer
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August 15, 2014, 01:09:44 AM
 #10610

If you just enter a bitcoin position just now, the lower price is good because of 2 effects:

- You bought lower (thanks, caption obv)
- The 3600 coins that are dumped daily due to miners, now need less FIAT currency to get absorbed. So if nothing has changed about the cashflows moving in/out of BTC, then this is a good longterm effect on your investment.!

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August 15, 2014, 01:14:42 AM
 #10611

As far as I can tell there are already a couple markets that have filled the void left behind by the Silk Road.
I don't mean a copy of the original Silk Road.

I mean a marketplace that improves on existing marketplaces to the same extent to which Silk Road was an improvement over buying drugs on the street.

It could be anything, but it should be something that will get people using Bitcoin because otherwise something they want to do would be impossible.
Hfleer
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August 15, 2014, 01:17:04 AM
 #10612

As far as I can tell there are already a couple markets that have filled the void left behind by the Silk Road.
I don't mean a copy of the original Silk Road.

I mean a marketplace that improves on existing marketplaces to the same extent to which Silk Road was an improvement over buying drugs on the street.

It could be anything, but it should be something that will get people using Bitcoin because otherwise something they want to do would be impossible.

Decentralised market placed like Dark Makret, bazar or NXT marketplace will be a big part of helping the adoption. Imagine one of those services getting as big as ebay or craigslist. The coverage would be enourmous.

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blumangroup
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August 15, 2014, 01:53:57 AM
 #10613

As far as I can tell there are already a couple markets that have filled the void left behind by the Silk Road.
I don't mean a copy of the original Silk Road.

I mean a marketplace that improves on existing marketplaces to the same extent to which Silk Road was an improvement over buying drugs on the street.

It could be anything, but it should be something that will get people using Bitcoin because otherwise something they want to do would be impossible.

Oh, sorry, I misunderstood what you were trying to say. That makes sense.

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August 15, 2014, 01:59:05 AM
 #10614

The only killer app for Bitcoin is to enable commerce that would otherwise impossible, and that means the black market.

That doesnt mean the black market, that means any market to some extent.   We have plenty of countries where commerce is controlled or restricted in some way.  1.3 billion people in China live under a currency not freely exchangable.  Their government maintains its power partly by buying dollars and inflates their own currency base in order to maintain a price fix and control of export markets.

Ideally Bitcoin should be increasingly easy and yet secure to exchange via any medium over a short term period or long term and for any amount.  It might just be this runs in line with mobile technology becoming more commonplace.  I have always thought that the smallest things can have the greatest effect and yet this accumulative process is overlooked and people look to grand events to unlock value.  We just need a positive and beneficial economy to those that use bitcoin and they will come


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August 15, 2014, 02:45:54 AM
 #10615


Cheap international transfers, routing around capital controls and avoiding dragnet monitoring of cross-border financial transactions, i.e anything cross-border is the killer app for bitcoin right now. imho.

Front-end tools for cross-border end-user btc wealth management are less than stellar, i.e. non-existent.

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August 15, 2014, 02:46:52 AM
 #10616

That doesn't mean the black market, that means any market to some extent.
It does though.

Developed economies are so bound up in cronyism that any innovation can only take place outside the regulations and laws, a.k.a the black market.

Exhibit A: Lyft
Exhibit B: Uber

We have plenty of countries where commerce is controlled or restricted in some way.
And working around those controls and restrictions is, by definition, the informal economy a.k.a black market.
traderCJ
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August 15, 2014, 03:46:47 AM
 #10617

It's 2014, who's still investing in gold?  Cheesy

Central banks are  Grin


He said investing, not speculating Wink

What's the difference?  There is none.
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August 15, 2014, 05:07:16 AM
 #10618

It's 2014, who's still investing in gold?  Cheesy

Central banks are  Grin


He said investing, not speculating Wink

What's the difference?  There is none.

'Investing' nowadays is speculating on the behavior of central banks. Interest is being killed, and thus the very basis of capitalism.

Like this post? you can tip me (BTC) 1LGi2DMhectdFSkBid5srrnHk8WHgD3V1d or very WoW (Doge) D9p6FZQb1sKkq9hApy4tnjSduYfdnc74bb
traderCJ
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August 15, 2014, 07:22:20 AM
 #10619

'Investing' nowadays is speculating on the behavior of central banks.

This is about the most profound statement I've read in this thread (not that that's saying much!)  Smiley
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August 15, 2014, 09:26:38 AM
 #10620

It's 2014, who's still investing in gold?  Cheesy

Central banks are  Grin


He said investing, not speculating Wink

What's the difference?  There is none.

'Investing' nowadays is speculating on the behavior of central banks. Interest is being killed, and thus the very basis of capitalism.

Investing is buying something below it's real economic value. Speculating is buying something because you believe people will buy it for a higher price, irrespective of value.

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