Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[tvbcof]

...
b/c silverbox, a quintessential gold and silver bug, insisted on using the beginning date of this thread (when everything looked like it was going gold's way) so that he could harass me on a daily basis about how wrong i was.

I've not seen much from him for some time, though he and I were both members of the same group buy to obtain an ASIC not long ago.  I think he only bought one, but I don't remember for sure.  The prices were absurd.  I've not even bothered to fire mine up yet.

I used to harass you regularly by going back 365 days because I knew BTC would look bad for a while by this metric.  It will be interesting to find out if I'll be able to pull that stunt again.

[N12]

I used to harass you regularly by going back 365 days because I knew BTC would look bad for a while by this metric.  It will be interesting to find out if I'll be able to pull that stunt again.

With a top of 266 put in? Very probable.

[tvbcof]

I used to harass you regularly by going back 365 days because I knew BTC would look bad for a while by this metric.  It will be interesting to find out if I'll be able to pull that stunt again.

With a top of 266 put in? Very probable.

Not totally clear.  By my ball-park estimations, I'll have to wait several quarters to start.  Then the fun may last only as long as it did last time.  That is, for the duration of the meat of the bubble.

As for the top, I'm still hoping for another leg up in a few years, or any time there is a significant financial calamity in mainstream-land which could easily happen before that.  If we are so lucky then gold will again be badly beaten...at least in the minds of those who take a simplistic view of investment/speculation strategies.

[keewee]

the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin is 69.04 Gold is 1223.6
Bitcoin: 1178%
Gold:    -27.6%
Diff:  1666% advantage Bitcoin

[lebing]

[Adrian-x]

there is gold in that computer.

[molecular]

could some of the smart people in here help shed some light about wether the winklevoss etf might be an attack on bitcoin trying to suppress its price?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=252330.msg2712210#msg2712210 and the posts before that

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

could some of the smart people in here help shed some light about wether the winklevoss etf might be an attack on bitcoin trying to suppress its price?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=252330.msg2712210#msg2712210 and the posts before that

Sure an ETF can be used to manipulate prices, but before that this ETF would have to push the Bitcoin price WAYYYYYY higher.

[tvbcof]

could some of the smart people in here help shed some light about wether the winklevoss etf might be an attack on bitcoin trying to suppress its price?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=252330.msg2712210#msg2712210 and the posts before that

I doubt that they will be able to be credible enough to have customers, much less become the authoritative market maker, unless they open their books and show their reserve.  Unlike almost anything else this is very possible with Bitcoin.  So, my gut sense is that they are less of a threat than other similar structures.  I also don't believe that structures such as ETFs can successfully manipulate prices both heavily and over a long period since market forces are stronger.

OTOH, if I were a trader I would be pissing myself.  It is a fair bet that there will be massive short-term manipulation with insiders and dark pool participants having better information.  So I guess I am saying (guessing) 'yes, they will suppress prices', but they will also explode prices from time to time.  They and their buddies will be mopping the floor with the poor schmucks who are not on the inside.

[molecular]

could some of the smart people in here help shed some light about wether the winklevoss etf might be an attack on bitcoin trying to suppress its price?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=252330.msg2712210#msg2712210 and the posts before that

Sure an ETF can be used to manipulate prices, but before that this ETF would have to push the Bitcoin price WAYYYYYY higher.

Only if they actually have to have an auditable supply of bitcoin in their "vaults".

[vokain]

could some of the smart people in here help shed some light about wether the winklevoss etf might be an attack on bitcoin trying to suppress its price?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=252330.msg2712210#msg2712210 and the posts before that

Sure an ETF can be used to manipulate prices, but before that this ETF would have to push the Bitcoin price WAYYYYYY higher.

Only if they actually have to have an auditable supply of bitcoin in their "vaults".

they don't, but they might have a hard time convincing people to buy into their etf without an audited supply when the alternative of holding your own coins is that much more attractive. the market will sort its prices out

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

could some of the smart people in here help shed some light about wether the winklevoss etf might be an attack on bitcoin trying to suppress its price?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=252330.msg2712210#msg2712210 and the posts before that

Sure an ETF can be used to manipulate prices, but before that this ETF would have to push the Bitcoin price WAYYYYYY higher.

Only if they actually have to have an auditable supply of bitcoin in their "vaults".

Even if they cheated, the official price would still rise. There have to be a number of big investors who won't/can't get any exposure to BTC until this ETF is created. Dropping a few billion into the pot is going to spike the price in an extreme way, regardless of any shenanigans (which, in any case, should be much harder to pull with a Bitcoin ETF, especially one started by Bitcoin enthusiasts).

[miscreanity]

could some of the smart people in here help shed some light about wether the winklevoss etf might be an attack on bitcoin trying to suppress its price?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=252330.msg2712210#msg2712210 and the posts before that

Sure an ETF can be used to manipulate prices, but before that this ETF would have to push the Bitcoin price WAYYYYYY higher.

Only if they actually have to have an auditable supply of bitcoin in their "vaults".

they don't, but they might have a hard time convincing people to buy into their etf without an audited supply when the alternative of holding your own coins is that much more attractive. the market will sort its prices out

DrGregMulhauser's answer in the linked thread is as eloquent as it gets.

I haven't bothered reading the filling, but I would not discount the inclination of retail investors to buy a fad without understanding it. As  Zangelbert points out, institutional investors could easily kick up the price, attracting attention, then reap the reward of a saturated order book.

For the Twinklevii, fees are collected either way, so the ETF being proposed as an attack vector is ambiguous. Shares of the ETF would take on sort of a life of their own in the sense that they are largely separate from the actual bitcoins they represent.

While the fund can then be wielded as a leveraged tool, there is no way to stop the flow of wealth - it can only be accelerated or delayed. In other words: if Bitcoin usage continues to demonstrate benefits and garner new users, all the suppressing power of the ETF would only serve to allow more entrants and wider adoption at a faster rate.

I think it's more of an effort to diversify revenue-generating ventures. When a business is self-sustaining, starting another is a prudent step; the twins now hold a huge sum of bitcoins and may soon be pulling a commensurately large flow of fiat, and flow of funds is as important as reserve.

The real asset is all that matters in the end, though. Bitcoin will thrive or fail based on its own merits.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

What I don't get is, instead of waiting many months (years?) to to get an ETF approved, why not just start a Bitcoin-heavy mutual fund or something that doesn't require such approval? Or why not have an existing hedge fund just add some bitcoin exposure? It surely comes done to regs that are out of my 圏, but maybe someone knows.

[vokain]

What I don't get is, instead of waiting many months (years?) to to get an ETF approved, why not just start a Bitcoin-heavy mutual fund or something that doesn't require such approval? Or why not have an existing hedge fund just add some bitcoin exposure? It surely comes done to regs that are out of my 圏, but maybe someone knows.

an ETF is a type of mutual fund apparently, but this is not an answer to your question.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_fund#Types

[rocks]

What I don't get is, instead of waiting many months (years?) to to get an ETF approved, why not just start a Bitcoin-heavy mutual fund or something that doesn't require such approval? Or why not have an existing hedge fund just add some bitcoin exposure? It surely comes done to regs that are out of my 圏, but maybe someone knows.

What I am curious about is if this ETF is 100% backed by bitcoins in an actual provable wallet of theirs. The gold analogy here would be the Sprott Physical Gold fund PHYS that is 100% backed by gold.

Or if this ETF will be run more like GLD, with few actual bitcoins and many "paper-backed" promises.

If they do run it in a way that relies on future paper-based promises, then I will be very curious on the overall effect and outcome. There are a fixed number of bitcoins and banks can not multiply the availability of bitcoins the way they do with fiat and gold through fractional reserve lending. They can try, but there is no FED to bail them out.

[Chainsaw]

Anyone have any analysis/insights to add to either of these recent changes in the gold market:
-Backwardation for the 7th day running.
-Dealer reserves continuing to dwindle.
-Bernanke's speech (with Q&A) today.

I've anticipated one of two scenarios:
-A short squeeze which doesn't leave enough time to acquire at still-low rates.
-The often-discussed paper/physical disconnect, at which point physical becomes unattainable/significantly higher in price.

Really, it's a question of timing.  We're just speculating of course, but - when?
Today?
Another month?
Another year?
Never - you're crazy, gold is going nowhere but down?

I'm curious what other opinions there are around this.

[dozerz]

its going down, along with silver and bitcoin..

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1550742-gold-still-has-room-to-fall?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0

[xavier]

Gold price is going down, no question

[molecular]

silver still over that key support at mid 18, not saying it will stay over it forever, but interesting none the less...

only looking at silver I can tell what Ben said today: something like "Don't worry guys, no tapering or tightening on my watch"