Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[molecular]

quite insightful and interesting video (also) about bitcoin and gold: Karen Hudes (formerly world bank): we need to get new currency like BTC ready

[NewLiberty]

Folks used to trade the Fed expectation based on what Greenspan had for breakfast and the heft of his briefcase.
http://money.cnn.com/1999/06/29/economy/fed_briefcase/

[cypherdoc]

you know there's a problem simply by the fact that ALL asset classes moved inversely to the USD. 

after the announcement, USD down, everything else up.  everything.  everything except Bitcoin interesting enough. 

Bitcoin users not affected?

absolutely ridiculous and indicates that this world of ours is responding economically only to Fed pumping.

[thezerg]

you know there's a problem simply by the fact that ALL asset classes moved inversely to the USD. 

after the announcement, USD down, everything else up.  everything.  everything except Bitcoin interesting enough. 

Bitcoin users not affected?

absolutely ridiculous and indicates that this world of ours is responding economically only to Fed pumping.

Probably already priced into bitcoin... given the outlook of most bitcoiners.

[wachtwoord]

you know there's a problem simply by the fact that ALL asset classes moved inversely to the USD. 

after the announcement, USD down, everything else up.  everything.  everything except Bitcoin interesting enough. 

Bitcoin users not affected?

absolutely ridiculous and indicates that this world of ours is responding economically only to Fed pumping.

Probably already priced into bitcoin... given the outlook of most bitcoiners.

Wow, there were people that did not expect this? :|

[NewLiberty]

you know there's a problem simply by the fact that ALL asset classes moved inversely to the USD. 

after the announcement, USD down, everything else up.  everything.  everything except Bitcoin interesting enough. 

Bitcoin users not affected?

absolutely ridiculous and indicates that this world of ours is responding economically only to Fed pumping.

Probably already priced into bitcoin... given the outlook of most bitcoiners.

Wow, there were people that did not expect this? :|

Nods, as clearly evidenced by the market movement in everything except bitcoin.

[Adrian-x]

Bitcoin users not affected?

Probably already priced into bitcoin... given the outlook of most bitcoiners.

Wow, there were people that did not expect this? :|

Nods, as clearly evidenced by the market movement in everything except bitcoin.

LOL'd at the above,
as chodpaba put it yesterday somewhere in cyberspace, [Bitcoin] "honey badgers unaffected."

[notme]

today's whole FOMC exercise is the #1 reason why a centrally planned printing press favors those who control it.

i guarantee you someone other than just Ben knew ahead of time what the decision was going to be.  which is precisely why the gold market popped a full 3 min before the announcement.

if there was ever a time and need for a "fair" money...

When were the meeting notes released to the public exactly?

this is what you are looking for.  times are PST:
<snip>

No, I want to know when a website first made the meeting notes available to the public.

Pretty sure website makers knew after just about everyone else.

??What??

How are the meeting notes distributed to the public?  I assumed some .gov site would just host them.

Sure the news sites and blogs write up a story after the minutes are released... but I want to know the first moment a trading bot could have gotten the minutes from a public source.

Pretty basic stuff, I was going to lmgtfy, but I'll be nice and give you a direct link:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/default.htm

When the Fed announces a 2pm release, they don't publicly release early.

[NewLiberty]

Line 1: Venezuela asks London for its gold back (repatriation of 99 tons).
Line 2: Germany asks New York and Paris for its gold back (repatriation of 674 tons).

Normal trading activity would generally cause prices to rise following these events as leased gold would be called back for delivery, but these countries are told to sit on their thumbs for years instead.

Then there is this:



Which looks like a steep drop in physical inventory, yes?

But wait...Lets step back a bit for some perspective...



So it is not just a drop, it is a precipitous drop, unprecedented (it only rose until Germany's demand, then only fell).

But... lets step back just a bit more and add the ETFs into the picture.  The ETFs are the general price setting metric as they are more liquid.  But they are really just paper, and unless you are a bullion bank, it might as well be just fiat, and well, a picture speaks volumes.



There you have the price falling, but massive redemption of the paper for the physical.  Intuitively redemption SHOULD cause the price to rise as the underlying asset becomes bought and also depleted through redemption.  It is becoming increasingly scarce.  So unless something weird is happening...

Consider that maybe the price is being driven down so that the redemption can be more affordable?  The central banks have it within their charter to manipulate currencies.  Gold (and bitcoin) fall into that category.  They can legally manipulate the price and not suffer the teeth of the CFTC.
I'm no conspiracy buff, but this seems consistent with the evidence at hand.

So tell me... am I crazy to be redeeming bitcoin for physical gold and silver?  Is it crazy to sell the oldest form of money for the digital/virtual/ephemeral at a time when the world is scrambling for the physical?  Maybe I am, but I am having fun doing it, and I like inflation-proof asset diversity.  More than anything, the opportunity to craft the best of its kind Bitcoin Specie has me giddy.  It is the most significant contribution I can make to the community at this time as a designer of numismatic physical money, to back the worlds best virtual currency with the worlds most durable asset.  Others may also do this, so the challenge of setting a higher standard, is exhilarating.

The production minting is starting TODAY (yay, at last), first with the Quarter Bitcoin one troy ounce silver, and soon also in gold, and I am very excited.  My team and I have been working on this for quite a while, and we are pretty happy with the result and hopeful that others will be also.  Sorry if this feels like advertising to you, it is personally exciting and so hard for me to avoid talking about it... but I will stop now.

[miscreanity]

Probably already priced into bitcoin... given the outlook of most bitcoiners.

The internal dynamics are having a large effect as well. We've entered the 100-200mm difficulty range; things are going to get very interesting from here on out.

[SkRRJyTC]

today's whole FOMC exercise is the #1 reason why a centrally planned printing press favors those who control it.

i guarantee you someone other than just Ben knew ahead of time what the decision was going to be.  which is precisely why the gold market popped a full 3 min before the announcement.

if there was ever a time and need for a "fair" money...

When were the meeting notes released to the public exactly?

this is what you are looking for.  times are PST:
<snip>

No, I want to know when a website first made the meeting notes available to the public.

Pretty sure website makers knew after just about everyone else.

??What??

How are the meeting notes distributed to the public?  I assumed some .gov site would just host them.

Sure the news sites and blogs write up a story after the minutes are released... but I want to know the first moment a trading bot could have gotten the minutes from a public source.

Pretty basic stuff, I was going to lmgtfy, but I'll be nice and give you a direct link:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/default.htm

When the Fed announces a 2pm release, they don't publicly release early.

I assume this to be true, yet I still have not found actual data to support it.  A time stamp would be great.

[NewLiberty]

I assume this to be true, yet I still have not found actual data to support it.  A time stamp would be great.

I'm with you on this.  It looks dirty.  But its a goose chase.  Even with a time stamp, calling foul on early trades without either evidence of communication or a confession doesn't get us anywhere.  The reason for the trade is not going to be in evidence.  It is one thing to believe it, yet another to prove it forensically.

The trader could have decided to sell dollars against stocks and gold because Bernanke walked at 40 paces a minute instead of 45 and decided that was because he was reluctant to be seen as wavering.  There are fed-watching analysts that really do monitor such minutia and base trading decisions on it, and even if they don't, it gives them "plausible deniability".  (Or his briefcase looked heavier, or his shoes weren't recently polished.)

Martha Stewart went to jail for it because she doesn't have the criminal mind that your professional inside trader has cultivated.  They are going to have a bunch of other "reasons for trade" and less of an identifiable communication nexus.

[notme]

today's whole FOMC exercise is the #1 reason why a centrally planned printing press favors those who control it.

i guarantee you someone other than just Ben knew ahead of time what the decision was going to be.  which is precisely why the gold market popped a full 3 min before the announcement.

if there was ever a time and need for a "fair" money...

When were the meeting notes released to the public exactly?

this is what you are looking for.  times are PST:
<snip>

No, I want to know when a website first made the meeting notes available to the public.

Pretty sure website makers knew after just about everyone else.

??What??

How are the meeting notes distributed to the public?  I assumed some .gov site would just host them.

Sure the news sites and blogs write up a story after the minutes are released... but I want to know the first moment a trading bot could have gotten the minutes from a public source.

Pretty basic stuff, I was going to lmgtfy, but I'll be nice and give you a direct link:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/default.htm

When the Fed announces a 2pm release, they don't publicly release early.

I assume this to be true, yet I still have not found actual data to support it.  A time stamp would be great.

A timestamp is worthless.  It only records the system time, which can be off by several minutes either intentionally or unintentionally.  I don't think you need to be looking for an early public release when there were dozens of people who knew early that are highly connected to both Washington and Wall Street.

[SkRRJyTC]

Pretty basic stuff, I was going to lmgtfy, but I'll be nice and give you a direct link:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/default.htm

When the Fed announces a 2pm release, they don't publicly release early.

I assume this to be true, yet I still have not found actual data to support it.  A time stamp would be great.

A timestamp is worthless.  It only records the system time, which can be off by several minutes either intentionally or unintentionally.  I don't think you need to be looking for an early public release when there were dozens of people who knew early that are highly connected to both Washington and Wall Street.

...  The timestamp could be from the .gov site or any site that crawled it.

And I still have seen no proof for what you are saying.

[NewLiberty]

...  The timestamp could be from the .gov site or any site that crawled it.

And I still have seen no proof for what you are saying.

Yes, proving what they knew and when they knew it...and then drawing the connection between someone who knew, and a trade.
Others at the Fed knew certainly...  But who traded with inside knowledge?
Without that, its "objection conjecture, your honor".

[notme]

...  The timestamp could be from the .gov site or any site that crawled it.

And, as I explained, it would be worthless.  I don't understand your obsession with it.

And I still have seen no proof for what you are saying.

What exactly are you disagreeing with?  I only made two claims:

1. There are dozens of people (Fed employees, board members) who knew the decision before it was public.

or

2.  Most of those people are very well connected with Wall Street and government officials.

[cypherdoc]

sure, i could say i didn't wipe my ass after taking a shit this morning but what would be the odds of that?

this un-taper one was especially suspicious given the poll on September 6 in which 13 of 18 dealers forecast a taper in purchases would be announced at Wednesday's meeting.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/09/30/us-usa-fed-idUSTRE68S01020100930

[NewLiberty]

And, as I explained, it would be worthless.  I don't understand your obsession with it.

If there were some evidence of early release, it would be valuable, as it would point to malfeasance.  Though it is very unlikely to find that in the clear anywhere.

What exactly are you disagreeing with?  I only made two claims:
1. There are dozens of people (Fed employees, board members) who knew the decision before it was public.
or
2.  Most of those people are very well connected with Wall Street and government officials.

No problem with these as written, just that they don't lead to a meaningful conclusion in this context without a #3.
Trading something public with inside knowledge, or disclosing that knowledge to someone that trades is what brings the trouble for them.

[notme]

And, as I explained, it would be worthless.  I don't understand your obsession with it.

If there were some evidence of early release, it would be valuable, as it would point to malfeasance.  Though it is very unlikely to find that in the clear anywhere.

What exactly are you disagreeing with?  I only made two claims:
1. There are dozens of people (Fed employees, board members) who knew the decision before it was public.
or
2.  Most of those people are very well connected with Wall Street and government officials.

No problem with these as written, just that they don't lead to a meaningful conclusion in this context without a #3.
Trading something public with inside knowledge, or disclosing that knowledge to someone that trades is what brings the trouble for them.

I never made that claim.  I was just saying that if #3 were to happen, a public release would not be necessary and a timestamp wouldn't show shit.  I got in this whole mess because he asked what time the notes were released and I knew off the top of my head.  I guess I should have just lmgtfy and walked away.  I have no horse in this race, so I'm not going to run any more.  Have fun guys.

[SkRRJyTC]

...  The timestamp could be from the .gov site or any site that crawled it.

And, as I explained, it would be worthless.  I don't understand your obsession with it.

And I still have seen no proof for what you are saying.

What exactly are you disagreeing with?  I only made two claims:

1. There are dozens of people (Fed employees, board members) who knew the decision before it was public.

or

2.  Most of those people are very well connected with Wall Street and government officials.

I was disagreeing with this assumption

> When the Fed announces a 2pm release, they don't publicly release early.

I think its entirely possible that the minutes were available on a public facing server before 2PM EST.  If I was able to find half a dozen independent sources that had crawled this public facing page at 1:56 then the reasonable assumption to make would be that the minutes were released early, not that the half a dozen independent servers had their system times manipulated.