[XMR] Monero Speculation

[dnaleor]

My mistake will be that I exchange XMR for BTC too early. I'm still super bullish on bitcoin. When XMR:BTC is at .01  I don't think I'll be able to resist the opportunity to have more bitcoin than I've ever held at once.

USD is no longer fashionable. If I want something that loses value every year, I'll buy a Rolls Royce.

indeed. I will sell some XMR for BTC at some point. I currently almost hold zero BTC.
I'm bullish on BTC because I think that the lack of privacy will be seen as usefull by the government-bank cartel. They will start to give BTC an "easy path" because they'll benefit from it.

Yep. BTC also simply has momentum going for it. Even though XMR might be technically superior for privacy, we'll continue to see BTC used almost exclusively on dark net markets in the near future due to its historical legacy.

With Crypto Kingdom, XMR enjoys more non-speculative use than just about every other digital currency asset in existence. LTC is just a Chinese pump-and-dump plaything at this point. So there's a very good chance that XMR will surpass DOGE, LTC, Peercoin, etc. and become a Top 3 cryptocurrency by market cap after its distribution phase is over.

I don't think the bolded part will be the case. We'll see dark markets move from BTC to XMR in the next few years.
I can see XMR becoming the second largest cryptocurrency (if we ignore RippleScam) when distribution becomes low (< 5 XMR per minute). Difficult to say what this will mean in BTC terms, but I gues it will be at least 0.05 BTC (remember that XMR was around 5-10 USD for a long time when most of the BTC was used on dark markets (2012). I think 5-10 USD has a very big chance in the next few years.

[jehst]

I don't think the bolded part will be the case. We'll see dark markets move from BTC to XMR in the next few years.
I can see XMR becoming the second largest cryptocurrency (if we ignore RippleScam) when distribution becomes low (< 5 XMR per minute). Difficult to say what this will mean in BTC terms, but I gues it will be at least 0.05 BTC (remember that XMR was around 5-10 USD for a long time when most of the BTC was used on dark markets (2012). I think 5-10 USD has a very big chance in the next few years.

If a large number of people get caught specifically because of blockchain-based analysis, then major markets might begin to switch over. Even then, they might not. I just don't have much faith in people's ability to be proactive and exercise vigilance in the face of potential dangers, especially when it doesn't seem that people are getting caught because of blockchain analysis (but rather via controlled deliveries). If a significant portion of dark net markets were move to XMR, then $5-10 would be thinking small. In that scenario, forget about Ripple. XMR could challenge BTC itself. In two years, it would have superior decentralization, lower supply inflation, and more or equal non-speculative use.

[dnaleor]

I don't think the bolded part will be the case. We'll see dark markets move from BTC to XMR in the next few years.
I can see XMR becoming the second largest cryptocurrency (if we ignore RippleScam) when distribution becomes low (< 5 XMR per minute). Difficult to say what this will mean in BTC terms, but I gues it will be at least 0.05 BTC (remember that XMR was around 5-10 USD for a long time when most of the BTC was used on dark markets (2012). I think 5-10 USD has a very big chance in the next few years.

If a large number of people get caught specifically because of blockchain-based analysis, then major markets might begin to switch over. Even then, they might not. I just don't have much faith in people's ability to be proactive and exercise vigilance in the face of potential dangers, especially when it doesn't seem that people are getting caught because of blockchain analysis (but rather via controlled deliveries). If a significant portion of dark net markets were move to XMR, then $5-10 would be thinking small. In that scenario, forget about Ripple. XMR could challenge BTC itself. In two years, it would have superior decentralization, lower supply inflation, and more or equal non-speculative use.

just want to be conservative
Don't underestimate what wall street can o to bitcoin. if wallstreet gets involed, I can easily see it going to 10k.
Will XMR be at that point be able to get to the same level as BTC? Don't think so. Maybe 5-10 USD is too conservative in that scenario, considering a lot of people will heard about TC by then... 0.05 BTC/XMR seems a good conservative target in any (BTC-)scenario

[jehst]

I don't think the bolded part will be the case. We'll see dark markets move from BTC to XMR in the next few years.
I can see XMR becoming the second largest cryptocurrency (if we ignore RippleScam) when distribution becomes low (< 5 XMR per minute). Difficult to say what this will mean in BTC terms, but I gues it will be at least 0.05 BTC (remember that XMR was around 5-10 USD for a long time when most of the BTC was used on dark markets (2012). I think 5-10 USD has a very big chance in the next few years.

If a large number of people get caught specifically because of blockchain-based analysis, then major markets might begin to switch over. Even then, they might not. I just don't have much faith in people's ability to be proactive and exercise vigilance in the face of potential dangers, especially when it doesn't seem that people are getting caught because of blockchain analysis (but rather via controlled deliveries). If a significant portion of dark net markets were move to XMR, then $5-10 would be thinking small. In that scenario, forget about Ripple. XMR could challenge BTC itself. In two years, it would have superior decentralization, lower supply inflation, and more or equal non-speculative use.

just want to be conservative
Don't underestimate what wall street can o to bitcoin. if wallstreet gets involed, I can easily see it going to 10k.
Will XMR be at that point be able to get to the same level as BTC? Don't think so. Maybe 5-10 USD is too conservative in that scenario, considering a lot of people will heard about TC by then... 0.05 BTC/XMR seems a good conservative target in any (BTC-)scenario

What exactly does "wall street getting involved" consist of, though? Market-making? Pump-and-dumping? I don't trust Wall Street to come in and make BTC holders or XMR holders rich at their expense. They are going to make themselves rich in ways that don't necessarily involve bidding up XMR/BTC. I think bitcoin can go to 10k without Wall Street. We just need less supply while demand grows. And those two things are both occurring.

[G2M]

FWIW; Seems nobody wants to take an XMR loan for shorting, even if you're practically giving it away.

[smooth]

monero hands are very strong, you should know by now.. no one will risk his position for a 10-20% profit chance. sounds like TrueCryptonaire is the one that bougth 30k today  (btw. good trade i think)
we all make the miners rich, but damn, they put up so many cpu/gpus, it's impossible to compete with this.

Mining is a tough competitive business with margins that are often very thin (though of course higher during periods of rapid growth). Miners earn their money.

Cloud mining is usually a scam, but I wonder if it wouldn't be easy money to rent CPU power if XMR moons (goes up 10x) during its high-inflation period (within the next 1-2 years)?

What usually happens when a CPU mined coin moons is that rental CPU power quickly becomes less available and more expensive. I've seen times in the past when high power servers quickly sell out at many cloud computing vendors. (I've wondered how this looks to people outside of the cryptocoin market who I guess have no idea why all of the sudden everyone wants 1000 Xeon servers.) Money can be made by knowing the best ways to get CPU inexpensively in a tight market but again miners are earning their money, especially if you want to do this at significant scale.

[dnaleor]

My previous post

Let's do an update of my previous chart:


I assumed an exponential uptrend. We touched the linear downtrend in the short term yesterday.

Long term log chart is showing a nice wedge. This wedge closes around 0.0028 in august.
I assume that when the wedge is broken to the upside, én the 23.6% fib level is also cleared, we will see the exchnage rate going > 0.0043 in a short period.
Long term exponential trendline suggests that the exhcnage rate will reach 0.01 BTC at the end of march 2016

[TrueCryptonaire]

My previous post

Let's do an update of my previous chart:


I assumed an exponential uptrend. We touched the linear downtrend in the short term yesterday.

Long term log chart is showing a nice wedge. This wedge closes around 0.0028 in august.
I assume that when the wedge is broken to the upside, én the 23.6% fib level is also cleared, we will see the exchnage rate going > 0.0043 in a short period.
Long term exponential trendline suggests that the exhcnage rate will reach 0.01 BTC at the end of march 2016

Yes, but now we are starting to drop.

Yesterday we had tons of shorters - today the lending market is completely dead.
Only investors have been covering their short positions and no new shorters in the markets... I am afraid it cannot continue like this.
I wish Polo would soon publish some information on the long/short ratios so I am not the only one talking here.

Any trader understands a situation where there is no shorters is not a healthy situation.

What comes to your graphs, they are not bullish nor bearish. A triangle which is pretty neutral... Only your interpretation sounds like it is a bargain to buy Monero this expensive.

[wpalczynski]

what a broken record

[Calabi–Yau Manifold]

Now it would be good to have some people were shorting since Monero is about a lose its liquidity.
If there were open shorts, there would be more liquidity in the dumps as the shorters want to cover and exit their positions.

Where I can see shorts/longs ratio? Only poloniex allows using leveraging tool in XMR?

[dEBRUYNE]

Now it would be good to have some people were shorting since Monero is about a lose its liquidity.
If there were open shorts, there would be more liquidity in the dumps as the shorters want to cover and exit their positions.

Where I can see shorts/longs ratio? Only poloniex allows using leveraging tool in XMR?

[1] shorts/longs ratio are not published publicly yet. However, poloniex said this would change in the foreseeable future.

[2] As far as I know, poloniex is currently the only exchange offering margin trading for altcoins.

[Calabi–Yau Manifold]

Thank you. I hope they'll publish shorts-longs data soon, it would be very helpful to us.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Now it would be good to have some people were shorting since Monero is about a lose its liquidity.
If there were open shorts, there would be more liquidity in the dumps as the shorters want to cover and exit their positions.

Where I can see shorts/longs ratio? Only poloniex allows using leveraging tool in XMR?

Hello,

Thank you for your question.
That info is available indirectly.
You need to follow how the interest rates goes.
Please bear in mind, it is a little bit biased way to follow it since btc is used for longing several currencies while xmr is used only against btc in margin trading.
But still you can see which way the short/long ratio is moving.

[newb4now]

Now it would be good to have some people were shorting since Monero is about a lose its liquidity.
If there were open shorts, there would be more liquidity in the dumps as the shorters want to cover and exit their positions.

Where I can see shorts/longs ratio? Only poloniex allows using leveraging tool in XMR?

Hello,

Thank you for your question.
That info is available indirectly.
You need to follow how the interest rates goes.
Please bear in mind, it is a little bit biased way to follow it since btc is used for longing several currencies while xmr is used only against btc in margin trading.
But still you can see which way the short/long ratio is moving.

You are right that it means something, but interest rates can be manipulated as well for various reasons (small quantities can be loaned at very low rates).

Similarly market depth can be a clue that bid/ask spreads are being manipulated in a market. That is why level 2 quotes are important

I do not recommend trading on margin in a market where this data remains private. Insiders with access to the data have a huge advantage and with enough funds can force short squeezes by being able to predict price points where margin loans will be called in.

If you must trade on margin, keep your equity % as high as possible. However I don't recommend margin trading at all until the margin data is made public.

[Bavaria]

I`m interested in lending money on Polo. Is there a chance that the borrower of the funds does not pay me my money and runs away?

[dEBRUYNE]

I`m interested in lending money on Polo. Is there a chance that the borrower of the funds does not pay me my money and runs away?

I guess you can obtain your answer from here -> https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading

Don't have time to read it thorougly now.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Now it would be good to have some people were shorting since Monero is about a lose its liquidity.
If there were open shorts, there would be more liquidity in the dumps as the shorters want to cover and exit their positions.

Where I can see shorts/longs ratio? Only poloniex allows using leveraging tool in XMR?

Hello,

Thank you for your question.
That info is available indirectly.
You need to follow how the interest rates goes.
Please bear in mind, it is a little bit biased way to follow it since btc is used for longing several currencies while xmr is used only against btc in margin trading.
But still you can see which way the short/long ratio is moving.

You are right that it means something, but interest rates can be manipulated as well for various reasons (small quantities can be loaned at very low rates).

Similarly market depth can be a clue that bid/ask spreads are being manipulated in a market. That is why level 2 quotes are important

I do not recommend trading on margin in a market where this data remains private. Insiders with access to the data have a huge advantage and with enough funds can force short squeezes by being able to predict price points where margin loans will be called in.

If you must trade on margin, keep your equity % as high as possible. However I don't recommend margin trading at all until the margin data is made public.

Based on my lending experience a short squeeze in a big deal is pretty unlikely since almost nobody is interested in borrowing Moneros right now.
There simply is a shortage of bears or bear-minded bulls in the marketplace.
On the other hand, bitcoin loans will disappear much faster (this could be due to the fact that btc is borrowed also trading Dash etc - however XMR usually have the most volume in Polo so I would assume that is a bigger player than the other currencies when it comes to trading with margin.

However, as you said, as long as Polo has something to hide with the data, it is all vague assumptions that we can do.

[Bavaria]

I`m interested in lending money on Polo. Is there a chance that the borrower of the funds does not pay me my money and runs away?

I guess you can obtain your answer from here -> https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading

Don't have time to read it thorougly now.

Thank you for your reference, but those infos do not include the answer to my question.

[dEBRUYNE]

I`m interested in lending money on Polo. Is there a chance that the borrower of the funds does not pay me my money and runs away?

I guess you can obtain your answer from here -> https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading

Don't have time to read it thorougly now.

Thank you for your reference, but those infos do not include the answer to my question.

Try the trollbox or perhaps #poloniex on freenode. I am pretty sure someone has an answer for you there.

[luigi1111]

I`m interested in lending money on Polo. Is there a chance that the borrower of the funds does not pay me my money and runs away?

I guess you can obtain your answer from here -> https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading

Don't have time to read it thorougly now.

Thank you for your reference, but those infos do not include the answer to my question.

It should be pretty apparent from that page. The answer is not really. The borrower has no choice in the matter of paying/not paying. What *could* happen is a market experiences atypical volatility and the borrower's account is unable to be settled with a positive balance. How real a risk this is depends on the market and Polo's algorithms, not the borrower.