[XMR] Monero Speculation

[gmaxwell]

(1) people who send BTC in the "ring signature sidechain" (RSSC), taint their BTC who are not entering the RSSC. If their identity is matched with the same identity as who put BTC in the RSSC, this person can become "flagged".

No, it's possible to trustlessly coinswap in and out of such a system, with no detectable connectivity.  And there are many reasons to use such a sidechain, such as improved smart contracting.  I consider improved fungiblity to be an essential basic feature.

Unfortunately, it's appears that it isn't possible to trustlessly swap in and out of monero because the developers of bytecoin didn't carry across smart contract functionality which they didn't understand.  Perhaps the capability could be added later.

[GingerAle]

(1) people who send BTC in the "ring signature sidechain" (RSSC), taint their BTC who are not entering the RSSC. If their identity is matched with the same identity as who put BTC in the RSSC, this person can become "flagged".

No, it's possible to trustlessly coinswap in and out of such a system, with no detectable connectivity.  And there are many reasons to use such a sidechain, such as improved smart contracting.  I consider improved fungiblity to be an essential basic feature.

Unfortunately, it's appears that it isn't possible to trustlessly swap in and out of monero because the developers of bytecoin didn't carry across smart contract functionality which they didn't understand.  Perhaps the capability could be added later.

Heya! Thanks for stopping by the thrilling altcoin section of bitcointalk!

I just read through coinswap - and granted, the reason I'm awake reading things is because I couldn't sleep so, grain of salt and all that.

I agree - any means to increase fungibility is a win. But based on my understanding of coinswap, this protocol would be human-centric? I.e., I'd have to arrange with some sentient thing (be it another human or a centralized service) to make it happen?

I should read your link with morning eyes.

[gmaxwell]

I agree - any means to increase fungibility is a win. But based on my understanding of coinswap, this protocol would be human-centric? I.e., I'd have to arrange with some sentient thing (be it another human or a centralized service) to make it happen?

No, not at all-- it's just the norm to think about and describe protocols in terms of "people" making moves in a game.  All of this is automated and performed by computers.

[generalizethis]

(1) people who send BTC in the "ring signature sidechain" (RSSC), taint their BTC who are not entering the RSSC. If their identity is matched with the same identity as who put BTC in the RSSC, this person can become "flagged".

No, it's possible to trustlessly coinswap in and out of such a system, with no detectable connectivity.  And there are many reasons to use such a sidechain, such as improved smart contracting.  I consider improved fungiblity to be an essential basic feature.

Unfortunately, it's appears that it isn't possible to trustlessly swap in and out of monero because the developers of bytecoin didn't carry across smart contract functionality which they didn't understand.  Perhaps the capability could be added later.

In a cash system, why would I want to go through an extra smart contract feature to send or receive payment?

I would assume the liquidity of Bitcoin, but the liquidity of Monero could change very rapidly.

All things being equal, I would want the simpler system, yes?

[dnaleor]

(1) people who send BTC in the "ring signature sidechain" (RSSC), taint their BTC who are not entering the RSSC. If their identity is matched with the same identity as who put BTC in the RSSC, this person can become "flagged".

No, it's possible to trustlessly coinswap in and out of such a system, with no detectable connectivity.  And there are many reasons to use such a sidechain, such as improved smart contracting.  I consider improved fungiblity to be an essential basic feature.

Unfortunately, it's appears that it isn't possible to trustlessly swap in and out of monero because the developers of bytecoin didn't carry across smart contract functionality which they didn't understand.  Perhaps the capability could be added later.

Ok, using coinswap is possible, but in that case, you are tainting your coins with coins from the other party. You don't know if the other party is a drug lord for example. Coinswapping coins will still be a risk.

and please adress (3) also:

(3) people who want to get their BTC out of the RSSC, immediately taint those BTC. It's even easier to taint these BTC than BTC put through a mixer or using coinjoin because you don't need to do extensive chainalysis. If/when regulation starts to come down on payment processors and/or miners (see my reddit post about fungibility for more info on the risks of tainting your BTC), these BTC's will be hard to spend in the 'regular economy' or even transact with.

if your answer is again, coinswap. Fine. But why would someone voluntarily taint their coins with RSSC-mixed coins?


and also address why miners, who are generally only interested in the mining profit and not the politics, run an RSSC node?
Even if it doesn't take more resources to do it... if it ever becomes illegal to run a node that supports RSSC (money laundering law for example), I don't think many (big) miners/pools will take the risk.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Monero has potential (major) rise in 2016 earliest.
So if you are betting for Monero for long haul, it requires a few years to be safely in profit (assuming the coin will not die before it).
However, I don't think Monero will die - I've drawn this conclusion by the members of the community. Monero community members are like a religious cult led by the cult leader Risto. When Risto says: "time to pump", the price starts to rise even if Risto doesn't buy a single coin. When Risto becomes more pessimistic about the price, it takes maximum a few days and the price is declining.

via Imgflip Meme Maker

[generalizethis]

[macsga]

Regardless of the position and/or influence of a certain individual in the price of any altcoin, there are fundamentals that give extortionate power to XMR. Features that if they will ever be incorporated into BTC then we will have to wonder if we need XMR in the first place, but since there's nothing that points to this direction, I think that XMR is here to stay.

The best thing to do is to pick a price tag that you feel comfortable to accumulate. Then, after your position is reached, just HODL and wait. I personally have some play money on XMR. If it works ok, I will be probably sell within the next pump and buy on the next dip. If we keep going like this I will probably just keep my position for a year or so.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Regardless of the position and/or influence of a certain individual in the price of any altcoin, there are fundamentals that give extortionate power to XMR. Features that if they will ever be incorporated into BTC then we will have to wonder if we need XMR in the first place, but since there's nothing that points to this direction, I think that XMR is here to stay.

The best thing to do is to pick a price tag that you feel comfortable to accumulate. Then, after your position is reached, just HODL and wait. I personally have some play money on XMR. If it works ok, I will be probably sell within the next pump and buy on the next dip. If we keep going like this I will probably just keep my position for a year or so.

Bitcoin's problem is it is pretty expensive considering it is a mere payment token used by pretty niche audience (and probably never will be mainstream - it has too bad reputation for mass adoption).
Also a noob has no reason to invest in btc. Fiat money works just fine and credit cards enables you to pay fast in online transactions + they allow you a free loan for x days.

Monero, on the other hand is digital cash. It cannot be traced (at least easily afaik).
However, Monero is pretty expensive also if you consider the fact that Risto has bought the coins he want to buy so now the others than Risto need to be attracted to owners. And if Monero wants to attract poor people like me, we cannot afford to pay this high price for our Moneros. 
I'll buy if the price is right for me... Now it is not and I am not a buyer. My business is to help the shorters getting Moneros at affordable rates in Polo. Currently I feel however, the rates being way too affordable for short sellers and still they do not see any opportunity in shorting Monero despite the fact that Monero actually can go to 0.001.....

[rangedriver]

Well, I've recently just bought my remaining 25%, which I had hitherto kept liquid in anticipation for a ~0.0015 buy opportunity. But really, I think that the 0.0015 opportunity isn't going to happen anymore, hence just getting it over and done with and buying now. I just can't see it happening with any meaningful volume.

Also, I've noticed a lot of dumpage going on in DASH which isn't happening with XMR. My suspicions are that a lot of the 'Dash community' is being slowly absorbed by Monero, especially as there are major players involved with XMR. A good honest project will always attracted the best of the best.

XMR has a tendency to rocketship fairly quickly and without warning. With imminent new exchange adoption, diminishing block reward, and BTC trend reversal / Greek crypto publicity... I'm expecting XMR to have a new hardfloor at 0.0035 within 1-2 months.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Well, I've recently just bought my remaining 25%, which I had hitherto kept liquid in anticipation for a ~0.0015 buy opportunity. But really, I think that the 0.0015 opportunity isn't going to happen anymore, hence just getting it over and done with and buying now. I just can't see it happening with any meaningful volume.

Also, I've noticed a lot of dumpage going on in DASH which isn't happening with XMR. My suspicions are that a lot of the 'Dash community' is being slowly absorbed by Monero, especially as there are major players involved with XMR. A good honest project will always attracted the best of the best.

XMR has a tendency to rocketship fairly quickly and without warning. With imminent new exchange adoption, diminishing block reward, and BTC trend reversal / Greek crypto publicity... I'm expecting XMR to have a new hardfloor at 0.0035 within 1-2 months.

Now as you have filled your bag at 0.002, how are you going to feel with the bag if it dumps all the way to 0.001 and stays there for a while?
I am not saying Monero will dump, but the charts are not bullish (not extremely bearish neither - more like neutral). Basically the price can go up or down but given the fact that Risto has filled his bag already and knowing the level of poverty of people like me, it is more likely to dump than pump.
Poor people cannot afford to overpay, only the rich ones can do that.

[hodlmybtc]

Stop with all the doom talk that XMR is overpriced, it isn't, if it is overpriced and should be at 0.001 then why is noone selling it down to that level? 100% profit if they are right, even more when they're shorting.

Compare it to Bitcoin, was BTC overpriced at 2x it's all time low? at 0.1 cent, at 1 cent?

Markets don't care if someone thinks something is overpriced, the price you see is usually the fair market price except in highly volatile times.

Monero has been pretty stable lately so the price is the fair market price currently.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Stop with all the doom talk that XMR is overpriced, it isn't, if it is overpriced and should be at 0.001 then why is noone selling it down to that level? 100% profit if they are right, even more when they're shorting.

Compare it to Bitcoin, was BTC overpriced at 2x it's all time low? at 0.1 cent, at 1 cent?

Markets don't care if someone thinks something is overpriced, the price you see is usually the fair market price except in highly volatile times.

Monero has been pretty stable lately so the price is the fair market price currently.

I would not compare Monero with btc 1-2 cent... I would compare BTC 400-500 usd (like it was the floor during the summer months a year ago). Now we are -50 % from those levels.
I am standing behind my words: I have sold over 95 % of my Moneros when it cost 0.003 and people were calling me names on that.
Now those trolls are silent in their caves where they belong to.
Someone called even me an annoying person but I understand it since this person is most likely a bagholder that feels the pain when his bag is getting lighter and lighter day after day.

I am not interested in increasing my position at these price points.
I don't let the permabulls lead me to financial destruction by tempting me to pay too much for Monero.
Despite Monero has established some support on 0.002 levels, it doesn't mean the support is there when it is needed the most.

Markets tend to go to the opposite direction of what the sheep think it will go. Now I am hearing the sheep telling me Monero is bargain etc. I am scared now since so many sheep is bullish (read: a desperate bagholder).

[hodlmybtc]

Stop with all the doom talk that XMR is overpriced, it isn't, if it is overpriced and should be at 0.001 then why is noone selling it down to that level? 100% profit if they are right, even more when they're shorting.

Compare it to Bitcoin, was BTC overpriced at 2x it's all time low? at 0.1 cent, at 1 cent?

Markets don't care if someone thinks something is overpriced, the price you see is usually the fair market price except in highly volatile times.

Monero has been pretty stable lately so the price is the fair market price currently.

I would not compare Monero with btc 1-2 cent... I would compare BTC 400-500 usd (like it was the floor during the summer months a year ago). Now we are -50 % from those levels.
I am standing behind my words: I have sold over 95 % of my Moneros when it cost 0.003 and people were calling me names on that.
Now those trolls are silent in their caves where they belong to.
Someone called even me an annoying person but I understand it since this person is most likely a bagholder that feels the pain when his bag is getting lighter and lighter day after day.

I am not interested in increasing my position at these price points.
I don't let the permabulls lead me to financial destruction by tempting me to pay too much for Monero.
Despite Monero has established some support on 0.002 levels, it doesn't mean the support is there when it is needed the most.

Markets tend to go to the opposite direction of what the sheep think it will go. Now I am hearing the sheep telling me Monero is bargain etc. I am scared now since so many sheep is bullish (read: a desperate bagholder).

BTC was overpriced because of the willy bot, ofcourse this distorted the fair market value for a long time.

And your talk is annoying, not because people are bullish about Monero, not because people are "bagholding", but because most of it is just doom talk with no technical/fundamental analysis to back it up.

Also you sold 95%, so you got a 5% bag left, what are you waiting for? Sell or short that shit to 0.001!

Well good luck buying your 5 XMR back at 0.001, I'm off.

[wpalczynski]

Stop with all the doom talk that XMR is overpriced, it isn't, if it is overpriced and should be at 0.001 then why is noone selling it down to that level? 100% profit if they are right, even more when they're shorting.

Compare it to Bitcoin, was BTC overpriced at 2x it's all time low? at 0.1 cent, at 1 cent?

Markets don't care if someone thinks something is overpriced, the price you see is usually the fair market price except in highly volatile times.

Monero has been pretty stable lately so the price is the fair market price currently.

I would not compare Monero with btc 1-2 cent... I would compare BTC 400-500 usd (like it was the floor during the summer months a year ago). Now we are -50 % from those levels.
I am standing behind my words: I have sold over 95 % of my Moneros when it cost 0.003 and people were calling me names on that.
Now those trolls are silent in their caves where they belong to.
Someone called even me an annoying person but I understand it since this person is most likely a bagholder that feels the pain when his bag is getting lighter and lighter day after day.

I am not interested in increasing my position at these price points.
I don't let the permabulls lead me to financial destruction by tempting me to pay too much for Monero.
Despite Monero has established some support on 0.002 levels, it doesn't mean the support is there when it is needed the most.

Markets tend to go to the opposite direction of what the sheep think it will go. Now I am hearing the sheep telling me Monero is bargain etc. I am scared now since so many sheep is bullish (read: a desperate bagholder).

BTC was overpriced because of the willy bot, ofcourse this distorted the fair market value for a long time.

And your talk is annoying, not because people are bullish about Monero, not because people are "bagholding", but because most of it is just doom talk with no technical/fundamental analysis to back it up.

Also you sold 95%, so you got a 5% bag left, what are you waiting for? Sell or short that shit to 0.001!

Well good luck buying your 5 XMR back at 0.001, I'm off.

This guy is the most annoying tool on BCT, even the DASH trolls were a lot more entertaining.  I wish he would just go away.  Frankly, I don't see how he is allowed to post in here when he brings no analysis to the table just his own "opinion" which no one cares about.  Its like when you step in dog shit and you just can't get it all out from the treads in your shoe, thats truecryptonaire for you.

Ever since he has been around the signal to noise ratio has plummeted. 

Maybe if you guys stop replying to him he will go away after a while.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Stop with all the doom talk that XMR is overpriced, it isn't, if it is overpriced and should be at 0.001 then why is noone selling it down to that level? 100% profit if they are right, even more when they're shorting.

Compare it to Bitcoin, was BTC overpriced at 2x it's all time low? at 0.1 cent, at 1 cent?

Markets don't care if someone thinks something is overpriced, the price you see is usually the fair market price except in highly volatile times.

Monero has been pretty stable lately so the price is the fair market price currently.

I would not compare Monero with btc 1-2 cent... I would compare BTC 400-500 usd (like it was the floor during the summer months a year ago). Now we are -50 % from those levels.
I am standing behind my words: I have sold over 95 % of my Moneros when it cost 0.003 and people were calling me names on that.
Now those trolls are silent in their caves where they belong to.
Someone called even me an annoying person but I understand it since this person is most likely a bagholder that feels the pain when his bag is getting lighter and lighter day after day.

I am not interested in increasing my position at these price points.
I don't let the permabulls lead me to financial destruction by tempting me to pay too much for Monero.
Despite Monero has established some support on 0.002 levels, it doesn't mean the support is there when it is needed the most.

Markets tend to go to the opposite direction of what the sheep think it will go. Now I am hearing the sheep telling me Monero is bargain etc. I am scared now since so many sheep is bullish (read: a desperate bagholder).

BTC was overpriced because of the willy bot, ofcourse this distorted the fair market value for a long time.

And your talk is annoying, not because people are bullish about Monero, not because people are "bagholding", but because most of it is just doom talk with no technical/fundamental analysis to back it up.

Also you sold 95%, so you got a 5% bag left, what are you waiting for? Sell or short that shit to 0.001!

Well good luck buying your 5 XMR back at 0.001, I'm off.

This guy is the most annoying tool on BCT, even the DASH trolls were a lot more entertaining.  I wish he would just go away.  Frankly, I don't see how he is allowed to post in here when he brings no analysis to the table just his own "opinion" which no one cares about.  Its like when you step in dog shit and you just can't get it all out from the treads in your shoe, thats truecryptonaire for you.

Ever since he has been around the signal to noise ratio has plummeted.  

Maybe if you guys stop replying to him he will go away after a while.

I wonder if it is You that bought my bag at 0.003?  

[sdmathis]

Stop with all the doom talk that XMR is overpriced, it isn't, if it is overpriced and should be at 0.001 then why is noone selling it down to that level? 100% profit if they are right, even more when they're shorting.

Compare it to Bitcoin, was BTC overpriced at 2x it's all time low? at 0.1 cent, at 1 cent?

Markets don't care if someone thinks something is overpriced, the price you see is usually the fair market price except in highly volatile times.

Monero has been pretty stable lately so the price is the fair market price currently.

I would not compare Monero with btc 1-2 cent... I would compare BTC 400-500 usd (like it was the floor during the summer months a year ago). Now we are -50 % from those levels.
I am standing behind my words: I have sold over 95 % of my Moneros when it cost 0.003 and people were calling me names on that.
Now those trolls are silent in their caves where they belong to.
Someone called even me an annoying person but I understand it since this person is most likely a bagholder that feels the pain when his bag is getting lighter and lighter day after day.

I am not interested in increasing my position at these price points.
I don't let the permabulls lead me to financial destruction by tempting me to pay too much for Monero.
Despite Monero has established some support on 0.002 levels, it doesn't mean the support is there when it is needed the most.

Markets tend to go to the opposite direction of what the sheep think it will go. Now I am hearing the sheep telling me Monero is bargain etc. I am scared now since so many sheep is bullish (read: a desperate bagholder).

BTC was overpriced because of the willy bot, ofcourse this distorted the fair market value for a long time.

And your talk is annoying, not because people are bullish about Monero, not because people are "bagholding", but because most of it is just doom talk with no technical/fundamental analysis to back it up.

Also you sold 95%, so you got a 5% bag left, what are you waiting for? Sell or short that shit to 0.001!

Well good luck buying your 5 XMR back at 0.001, I'm off.

This guy is the most annoying tool on BCT, even the DASH trolls were a lot more entertaining.  I wish he would just go away.  Frankly, I don't see how he is allowed to post in here when he brings no analysis to the table just his own "opinion" which no one cares about.  Its like when you step in dog shit and you just can't get it all out from the treads in your shoe, thats truecryptonaire for you.

Ever since he has been around the signal to noise ratio has plummeted. 

Maybe if you guys stop replying to him he will go away after a while.

Not everyone wants him to go away. What he says makes more sense than most of the drivel I hear from the permabulls.

[TheKoziTwo]

Might be time to repeat this one:

[TrueCryptonaire]

Might be time to repeat this one:

Yes, I've been wrong once or twice here (based on this post only once). 
Yet people still bring this same thing up all the time but in the same token forgets the numerous times when the permabulls have been wrong.

The dump from 0.004 was since Warz decided to get rid off many of his coins in Polo.

As I told earlier, I asked people to support 0.004 and got a negative response from the community (if you look at that message, it should be below it unless the author has moved it away).
That was a big red flag to me and I decided to look for a exit. Unofrtunately I was not fast enough and ended up doing it around 0.003 and lost a lot of money in this.

I don't know how many times I still have to repeat the same old stuff here... Instead of quoting this you could also quote my response to the critique always under this post. It would be much more honest way to do.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I want Monero to skyrocket.
Therefore it is in my best interest that Monero goes down now as the block reward is still high.
When it has declined, most likely it will get a decent marketcap - even shoot to 2000 usd but the longer it stays lower the more the accumulators are able to collect cheap coins from the miners and later pump it to skyhigh.

Says it all really.

Thank you for your contribution.
I am pro-Monero and interested in owning a large portion of Monero supply.
But not at any cost. If I do not get the coins at the price I want them, I can very well survive the rest of my life without those Moneros.
At some point Monero has a nice potential - never denied the potential of Monero in the long haul... However, long haul many are probably agreeing with me... The disagreements arise when it comes to short term potential.
The permabulls seem to claim Monero should moon, and they do not have any evidence or proof but a Monero price graph which is pretty much neutral triangle shape (not bullish, not bearish) if you know even the basics of Technical analysis.
The fact that the relative emission to BTC is much higher with XMR (3600 btc/day vs. 13 000 xmr/day), is the reason why I tend to give a probability to bear market 70 % and the probability of bullish break out 30 %.
Hence, I am not saying the price cannot make new ATH soon but I am not simply putting too much probability to bullish trend yet.