[XMR] Monero Speculation

[medusa13]

i dont want to ruin the party but please only post price related stuff here. (not like my post now ):

very glad to hear the news with the fiat exchange(s). i will definetely support this projects once they go live. Cant wait for the day once i am able to leave poloniex.

i want to offer my help, i can test this kind of applications. i worked many years in quality assurance industry and i still am as a testmanager, supervising several trading applications.

if you develop one of these projects, do not hesistate to contact me. i only have limited time since i work a lot too, but i can promise you it will help you having me klicking through it.

i work for free of course + i can not make security testing

btw about price: maybe we go a little bit lower, 150 sounds ok but still somehow difficult to imagine. i try to keep some powder dry but its difficult for me

[LuxMoneroj]

On the other hand, the fiat exchanges are coming online soon, and this will cause upside pressure.

Which fiat exchanges?

[futureofbitcoin]

I can see monero as a really good potential anonymous and secure store of wealth; when the marketcap of monero is in the hundreds of billions or trillions, I can see HNW and UHNW storing at least some of their wealth in monero, either because they want privacy or because they're trying to hide their assets from family/friends/government/mafia etc.

But how can we help it make that first leap? For the first UHNW guy, monero is not yet a great store of value. How can we convince him and others to store their value in monero? It's not going to happen if we just say "oh, if even one rich guy comes here we'll go to the moon".

How do we get that rich person/people to join monero? What could we do to promote it and make it more attractive to that group of people?

Also, where did americanpegasus go?

[QuantumQrack]

AmericanPegasus moderates the Monero reddit forum.  Seems fairly active there.  As far as Monero going up in price, I really think its a matter of education regarding cryptocurrencies.  Bitcoin is the big mover, but it has fallen short of my expectations for digital cash.  I hope as time goes on, people will realize that ring signatures, stealth addresses and specifically cryptonote protocols as implemented in Monero assure much more privacy and independence from the banking establishment.

[GingerAle]

I can see monero as a really good potential anonymous and secure store of wealth; when the marketcap of monero is in the hundreds of billions or trillions, I can see HNW and UHNW storing at least some of their wealth in monero, either because they want privacy or because they're trying to hide their assets from family/friends/government/mafia etc.

But how can we help it make that first leap? For the first UHNW guy, monero is not yet a great store of value. How can we convince him and others to store their value in monero? It's not going to happen if we just say "oh, if even one rich guy comes here we'll go to the moon".

How do we get that rich person/people to join monero? What could we do to promote it and make it more attractive to that group of people?

Also, where did americanpegasus go?

IMO, a lot of it has to do with network security. And with cryptocurrency, the network security depends on network hashrate. As I've posted before, Our current network hashrate could be doubled for ~5 million USD, so no one is going to store their value in Monero if the entire network can be attacked for ~5 million USD in hardware. Hence, my effort to get a crazy bounty going for publicly releasing any optimized mining software, and my push, in general, to encourage mining. 

Of course its a catch 22, because an increase in value causes an increase in hashrate, and an increase in hashrate can cause an increase in value........... so.............

[aerbax]

...
Also, where did americanpegasus go?

He's an active mod on the Monero subreddit now.

[G2M]

I can see monero as a really good potential anonymous and secure store of wealth; when the marketcap of monero is in the hundreds of billions or trillions, I can see HNW and UHNW storing at least some of their wealth in monero, either because they want privacy or because they're trying to hide their assets from family/friends/government/mafia etc.

But how can we help it make that first leap? For the first UHNW guy, monero is not yet a great store of value. How can we convince him and others to store their value in monero? It's not going to happen if we just say "oh, if even one rich guy comes here we'll go to the moon".

How do we get that rich person/people to join monero? What could we do to promote it and make it more attractive to that group of people?

Also, where did americanpegasus go?

Simple really.

Just change 'Really good potential anonymous and secure store of wealth' to 'Really good anonymous and secure store of wealth'.

Gotta confront the potential. Everybody can't buy potential, or we'd all be broke.

Show them its a tool that can be used to bend other peoples wills, a tool that gives them the power of control over other people, and not just produce more value. They'll figure out the rest.

[smooth]

I can see monero as a really good potential anonymous and secure store of wealth; when the marketcap of monero is in the hundreds of billions or trillions, I can see HNW and UHNW storing at least some of their wealth in monero, either because they want privacy or because they're trying to hide their assets from family/friends/government/mafia etc.

But how can we help it make that first leap? For the first UHNW guy, monero is not yet a great store of value. How can we convince him and others to store their value in monero? It's not going to happen if we just say "oh, if even one rich guy comes here we'll go to the moon".

How do we get that rich person/people to join monero? What could we do to promote it and make it more attractive to that group of people?

Also, where did americanpegasus go?

IMO, a lot of it has to do with network security. And with cryptocurrency, the network security depends on network hashrate. As I've posted before, Our current network hashrate could be doubled for ~5 million USD, so no one is going to store their value in Monero if the entire network can be attacked for ~5 million USD in hardware. Hence, my effort to get a crazy bounty going for publicly releasing any optimized mining software, and my push, in general, to encourage mining. 

Of course its a catch 22, because an increase in value causes an increase in hashrate, and an increase in hashrate can cause an increase in value........... so.............

This is just a typical chicken-egg problem and as usual it doesn't really matter which comes first. If people want to start bumping the hash rate then more value can come in, and if more value wants to come in then mining profitability will bump and hashrate will follow.

[hodlmybtc]

XMR breaking out to the upside, RSI and OBV forecasting this, too bad Cryptrader doesn't have the Ultimate Oscillator indicator though.



Resistance at 0.002, first target 0.00235 (23.6% retrace), second target 0.00272 (38.2% retrace).

[medusa13]

yeah with monero there still always is the possibility to load up some additional aws spot gpu or cpu instances if price should rise too high too fast without taking the hashrate up with it. both situations can be very profitable for one side as we allready saw i guess.

due to the asic unfriendly hashing function of cryptonight it is possible to push the hashrate up fast (at least at this stage). be it through zombie bots, vps, gpu farms, whatever.

i think there are still huge gpu capacities out there

btw. orderbook is still way to weak to support a real push up in my opinion. still stealth accumulation from all the known bastardz i guess 

[vgo]

More dumpity dump??   

not really.

Try with Bitcoinwisdom. 



Waiting 0.0016.

Is that the price at which you plan to come gloat? 

It depends on the number of "400k supporting walls" at that time. 

[medusa13]

volume is heavily down, we should move soon i guess, in one or the other direction ofc
big buyers holding back a lot of ammunition and maybe they let if fall even further. some might also just be waiting for the new exchanges to open.

maybe its just because big part of the xmr community is located in europe and its fucking hot right now and a good time to party anyway

[Bassica]

It might be the temperature, but I think we'll soon see the last stab down for the reversal. Monero tends to adhere to some sort of cycled pagtern, and it looks like we're towards the end of one. My guess is up from here.

Would be great if this turns out this way, and being able to bottomfish those last dumpefforts.

[aerbax]

IMO, these downward shifts are just equilibrium for the upward trend of BTC.  XMR wants to stay at US .50 cents.

And I see no signs of that changing until something really new/interesting happens in XMR-land.

[Oscilson]

If XMR is developed continuously, I do not worry about its future.

The price is affected by cost of mining. Some people's mining cost is almost 0.

[SmoothCurves]

I think Monero at .01 in the next 12 months is possible.

[Hueristic]

I think Monero at .01 in the next 12 months is possible.

I doubt it with the botnets dumping. Botnets are a 2 edged sword, One they secure the network and two they dump. I don't see why they don't hold. Even criminals want profit, they seem to be very shortsighted. But no one ever said criminals were smart.

Another extremely detrimental effect they have is making competitors that actually have overhead unable to compete and therefor the network cannot grow. This should probably be addressed but I don't see how until the emissions are extremely low. But then again If the coin gets adopted and skyrockets in some (I wonder where) market then these issues should become less significant.

[infovortice2013]

just now is an alone buy wall over 0.0019 of 40 btc ...later is a freedowntrend without resistances

[rangedriver]

IMO, these downward shifts are just equilibrium for the upward trend of BTC.  XMR wants to stay at US .50 cents.

That might be true if the dollar was XMR's dominant pair, but without USD markets I would say that it is mainly fuelled by the BTC economy, especially considering how niche XMR currently is.

Typically XMR tends to rise in harmony with BTC rises, and with fairly short latency. I think we'll see evidence of this in the next few weeks, depending of course on the speed of BTC's elevation.

[saddambitcoin]

IMO, these downward shifts are just equilibrium for the upward trend of BTC.  XMR wants to stay at US .50 cents.

That might be true if the dollar was XMR's dominant pair, but without USD markets I would say that it is mainly fuelled by the BTC economy, especially considering how niche XMR currently is.

I think the USD is an important factor, if you consider that miners are likely paying for their electricity bills with fiat. You would then be able to say that the miners paid USD for their XMR, no BTC involved. There are surely some people mining Monero out there who have very little costs, that's why we see these big dumps. Then they exhaust their supply and XMR goes up.

Since most believers and speculators in XMR are not selling anywhere near the price of $0.50 (you can see volume has been very low), we can assume that miners are the the main sellers here.