[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

i still dont know the truth, i think only a few know. if its really possible to have a real functioning RSSC without telling what goes in an out? how will it be secured? how pegged if at all? so many questions, i better just stay with monero

I've not seen where it is possible to have a pegged sidechain (of any kind) that is sound, secure, and decentralized. It looks like voodoo economics to me. Sure the cryptography works, I'm convinced of that, but as an economic system, I'm not convinced at all.

But in any case the same cryptography can be used to create sidechains of Monero and even make the Bitcoin main chain a sidechain of Monero, and these will work or not work to exactly the same extent that Bitcoin's sidechains do. I don't really see where it changes much of anything in terms of people wanting to speculate on different assets or bundles of assets.

[1714730129]

1714730129

[1714730129]

1714730129

[1714730129]

1714730129

[TrueCryptonaire]

Just wanted to post and tell that I don't see anything happening in Monerosphere. Once we get one serious buyer (and I still have many in the pipeline, and some small ones are accumulating as we speak), then there will be price action.

As long as the whole world does not provide one person interested in a private cryptocurrency, well, then we'll have to languish at the current levels 

Let it drop before the pump. 
I (and I assume many others, too) want some cheap coinz.

What is "cheap" for you ?

It is always lower than the spot price.

[TaunSew]

LTC:USD has nearly tripled in anticipation of the block reward halving 50+ days from now. As a currency, it has zero actual use. Doesn't make much sense to me. The crash will be amusing but I won't pretend that I can time it. The market can stay irrational far longer than I can stay solvent. XMR:BTC went from .001x to .004x. BTC:USD went from 100s to $1000 and fell to a stable value in the $200s.

Clearly cryptocurrencies can overshoot their stable values by 2x or 4x or 20x. And you don't know which it's going to be until it's over.

Litecoin is a "noob trap" or "alternates for noobs".  People brand new to cryptocurrency will load up coinmarketcap or a similar website, and they see Litecoin at #2 / #3 and see it is virtually identical to Bitcoin, so they figure a higher capitalization & volume than rest of the alternates indicates it is a better investment.  This is why Litecoin has consistently always been able to go through pump and dumps.  It's a great short term investment but long term...

They could not be more wrong.  As your post suggested - no one wants to be holding Litecoin the day when a serious alternate rivals Bitcoin.  Right now no alternates really rival Bitcoin, beyond cheap clones like Litecoin and Doge, but that will change when one of the serious alternates develops products and services people need.  Bitcoin itself is only 100,000 users after 6 years.  You just need the one decent product and you will get more users than Bitcoin and the day that happens no one wants to be holding a hot potato like Litecoin.

[macsga]

LTC:USD has nearly tripled in anticipation of the block reward halving 50+ days from now. As a currency, it has zero actual use. Doesn't make much sense to me. The crash will be amusing but I won't pretend that I can time it. The market can stay irrational far longer than I can stay solvent. XMR:BTC went from .001x to .004x. BTC:USD went from 100s to $1000 and fell to a stable value in the $200s.

Clearly cryptocurrencies can overshoot their stable values by 2x or 4x or 20x. And you don't know which it's going to be until it's over.

Litecoin is a "noob trap" or "alternates for noobs".  People brand new to cryptocurrency will load up coinmarketcap or a similar website, and they see Litecoin at #2 / #3 and see it is virtually identical to Bitcoin, so they figure a higher capitalization & volume than rest of the alternates indicates it is a better investment.  This is why Litecoin has consistently always been able to go through pump and dumps.  It's a great short term investment but long term...

They could not be more wrong.  As your post suggested - no one wants to be holding Litecoin the day when a serious alternate rivals Bitcoin.  Right now no alternates really rival Bitcoin, beyond cheap clones like Litecoin and Doge, but that will change when one of the serious alternates develops products and services people need.  Bitcoin itself is only 100,000 users after 6 years.  You just need the one decent product and you will get more users than Bitcoin and the day that happens no one wants to be holding a hot potato like Litecoin.

I think that most people using LTC as a fast "vessel" towards moving funds from one place to another. Generally speaking, the transactions with BTCs are a lot slower than those with LTCs. That may explain the prior pumps every time BTC is on the move. If you check historical data you will see that most of the times it was LTC (sometimes PPC & NMC also) that first moved, with BTC following. I *think* there was a text that presented this fact back in 2013, but I cannot really remember if it was an actual post here or an article on some crypto-coin site.

[AnonCoinTwitter]

Lack of ANC github activity has caused me to lose hope of any Zerocoin implementation. CryptoNote exists, the future is now. #XMR #BBR

Tweeted to 1000+ followers

[rpietila]

Don't sell your coins to early when a bubble happens, just look at the % gains LTC made in 2013.

It is the "sticky price" phenomenon that has previously manifested itself in "trading ranges". When the price or exchange rate is relatively steady for a longer time (let's say 2 months), the market participants start to "enforce" it in their trades, refusing to buy higher or sell lower.

With BTC, we had the original electricity cost era of <$0.01, then the $1 before the bubble in 2011, the next one was at $5 and then about $10 later in 2012, then some at $120 in 2013, and now $220ish. Each time the price held its ground a "long" time after fundamentals already warranted a rise, and when the rise finally began, it often overshoot.

The trading range I originally prescribed to Monero in May 2014, was BTC0.002-0.004. The prediction was not bad at all, if you look at the reality during the year. Now we are at the lower end of the range, with a project that is still alive with all the major contributors.

Trading ranges with sticky prices tend to make people incredibly myopic - they start to seriously regard 0.0017 as cheap and 0.0023 as expensive. The logarithmic nature of price increase is all but forgotten, until it happens, taking all by surprise.

Both 0.0017, 0.0023, 0.01 and even 0.1 are cheap if Monero makes it. (If it does not, there is no difference how many monero you have in your bag which is worth $0 anyway.)

Yes it is summer and the mood in the markets is according. I don't forecast a quick rise in price before new money comes. There are some signs of price stickiness around

[TrueCryptonaire]

Don't sell your coins to early when a bubble happens, just look at the % gains LTC made in 2013.

It is the "sticky price" phenomenon that has previously manifested itself in "trading ranges". When the price or exchange rate is relatively steady for a longer time (let's say 2 months), the market participants start to "enforce" it in their trades, refusing to buy higher or sell lower.

With BTC, we had the original electricity cost era of <$0.01, then the $1 before the bubble in 2011, the next one was at $5 and then about $10 later in 2012, then some at $120 in 2013, and now $220ish. Each time the price held its ground a "long" time after fundamentals already warranted a rise, and when the rise finally began, it often overshoot.

The trading range I originally prescribed to Monero in May 2014, was BTC0.002-0.004. The prediction was not bad at all, if you look at the reality during the year. Now we are at the lower end of the range, with a project that is still alive with all the major contributors.

Trading ranges with sticky prices tend to make people incredibly myopic - they start to seriously regard 0.0017 as cheap and 0.0023 as expensive. The logarithmic nature of price increase is all but forgotten, until it happens, taking all by surprise.

Both 0.0017, 0.0023, 0.01 and even 0.1 are cheap if Monero makes it. (If it does not, there is no difference how many monero you have in your bag which is worth $0 anyway.)

Yes it is summer and the mood in the markets is according. I don't forecast a quick rise in price before new money comes. There are some signs of price stickiness around

Definetely a good thing to have some kind of stickness.. However, I am not so certain yet that we couldn't go lower from the current price.
The previous stickness was 0.001-0.0012 area for a few months so chances are we might actually test those as well. I am not saying it will happen but there are some chances for it.
Fundamentally, the whales have quit accumulation and there is no new whales in the horizon. Also a whale may not want to buy coins at too high price but sell at high instead so most likely a whales prefer swimming in the deep dark waters.

I agree that if Monero makes it, the price of 0.1 btc is a bargain. After all, 0.1 btc is only 26 usd. and then the marketcap with current emission is 215 million usd. That's quite small for a currency.

[AnonCoinTwitter]

Don't sell your coins to early when a bubble happens, just look at the % gains LTC made in 2013.

It is the "sticky price" phenomenon that has previously manifested itself in "trading ranges". When the price or exchange rate is relatively steady for a longer time (let's say 2 months), the market participants start to "enforce" it in their trades, refusing to buy higher or sell lower.

With BTC, we had the original electricity cost era of <$0.01, then the $1 before the bubble in 2011, the next one was at $5 and then about $10 later in 2012, then some at $120 in 2013, and now $220ish. Each time the price held its ground a "long" time after fundamentals already warranted a rise, and when the rise finally began, it often overshoot.

The trading range I originally prescribed to Monero in May 2014, was BTC0.002-0.004. The prediction was not bad at all, if you look at the reality during the year. Now we are at the lower end of the range, with a project that is still alive with all the major contributors.

Trading ranges with sticky prices tend to make people incredibly myopic - they start to seriously regard 0.0017 as cheap and 0.0023 as expensive. The logarithmic nature of price increase is all but forgotten, until it happens, taking all by surprise.

Both 0.0017, 0.0023, 0.01 and even 0.1 are cheap if Monero makes it. (If it does not, there is no difference how many monero you have in your bag which is worth $0 anyway.)

Yes it is summer and the mood in the markets is according. I don't forecast a quick rise in price before new money comes. There are some signs of price stickiness around

This makes sense. Picking the right coins (that will fill a market need and survive) is infinitely more important than finding the right entry point. 99.9% of alt coins will eventually fail (I believe that) but those that succeed with eventually assume an appropriate money supply for the market they serve.

This is the reason why I care much more about development and innovation than price.

The chance of Monero failing is actually pretty high (this is not meant to be an insult).  I still really like it because the potential reward if it does succeed is so incredible. Cryptonote is the best tech that exists today. Of the cryptonote coins with a fair emission schedule, Monero is the leader in terms of community involvement and development of supporting services. 

[Eastwind]

This makes sense. Picking the right coins (that will fill a market need and survive) is infinitely more important than finding the right entry point. 99.9% of alt coins will eventually fail (I believe that) but those that succeed with eventually assume an appropriate money supply for the market they serve.

This is the reason why I care much more about development and innovation than price.

The chance of Monero failing is actually pretty high (this is not meant to be an insult).  I still really like it because the potential reward if it does succeed is so incredible. Cryptonote is the best tech that exists today. Of the cryptonote coins with a fair emission schedule, Monero is the leader in terms of community involvement and development of supporting services. 

Monero is THE altcoin other than bitcoin.

[AnonCoinTwitter]

This makes sense. Picking the right coins (that will fill a market need and survive) is infinitely more important than finding the right entry point. 99.9% of alt coins will eventually fail (I believe that) but those that succeed with eventually assume an appropriate money supply for the market they serve.

This is the reason why I care much more about development and innovation than price.

The chance of Monero failing is actually pretty high (this is not meant to be an insult).  I still really like it because the potential reward if it does succeed is so incredible. Cryptonote is the best tech that exists today. Of the cryptonote coins with a fair emission schedule, Monero is the leader in terms of community involvement and development of supporting services.  

Monero is THE altcoin other than bitcoin.

I agree. It is now my favorite alt as well.

I am basically agreeing with some prior comments of rpietila. Something can have a less than 50% chance of success AND still be a GREAT investment on the basis of EV or expected ROI.

For a simple example if I thought ABC had a 90% chance of being worth zero (100% loss) in 3 years but a 10% chance of gaining 20,000% I would buy a lot of it.

[TrueCryptonaire]

This makes sense. Picking the right coins (that will fill a market need and survive) is infinitely more important than finding the right entry point. 99.9% of alt coins will eventually fail (I believe that) but those that succeed with eventually assume an appropriate money supply for the market they serve.

This is the reason why I care much more about development and innovation than price.

The chance of Monero failing is actually pretty high (this is not meant to be an insult).  I still really like it because the potential reward if it does succeed is so incredible. Cryptonote is the best tech that exists today. Of the cryptonote coins with a fair emission schedule, Monero is the leader in terms of community involvement and development of supporting services.  

Monero is THE altcoin other than bitcoin.

I agree. It is now my favorite alt as well.

I am basically agreeing with some prior comments of rpietila. Something can have a less than 50% chance of success AND still be a GREAT investment on the basis of EV or expected ROI.

For a simple example if I thought ABC had a 90% chance of being worth zero (100% loss) in 3 years but a 10% chance of gaining 20,000% I would buy a lot of it.

You should be agreeing with Risto because Monero is Risto's coin.
I know some people may get offended about my statement but it is the truth largerly and sometimes truth hurts. 

[rangedriver]

This makes sense. Picking the right coins (that will fill a market need and survive) is infinitely more important than finding the right entry point. 99.9% of alt coins will eventually fail (I believe that) but those that succeed with eventually assume an appropriate money supply for the market they serve.

This is the reason why I care much more about development and innovation than price.

The chance of Monero failing is actually pretty high (this is not meant to be an insult).  I still really like it because the potential reward if it does succeed is so incredible. Cryptonote is the best tech that exists today. Of the cryptonote coins with a fair emission schedule, Monero is the leader in terms of community involvement and development of supporting services.  

Monero is THE altcoin other than bitcoin.

I agree. It is now my favorite alt as well.

I am basically agreeing with some prior comments of rpietila. Something can have a less than 50% chance of success AND still be a GREAT investment on the basis of EV or expected ROI.

For a simple example if I thought ABC had a 90% chance of being worth zero (100% loss) in 3 years but a 10% chance of gaining 20,000% I would buy a lot of it.

You should be agreeing with Risto because Monero is Risto's coin.
I know some people may get offended about my statement but it is the truth largerly and sometimes truth hurts. 

It's not the truth though.

It's like saying Bitcoin is Erik Voorhees' coin.

[Bassica]

Lack of ANC github activity has caused me to lose hope of any Zerocoin implementation. CryptoNote exists, the future is now. #XMR #BBR

Tweeted to 1000+ followers

Thanks for that tweet, I think you're right. Zerocoin is a great concept, but will not be a competitor for a long time.

Monero is here today and fully functioning (and active, and lively). It is currently (and will be for a long time) the main candidate for the anon-niche. 

[dnaleor]

Bitcoins—a highly traceable digital currency

Bitcoin - a trojan horse with monero inside

Just let it past the gates and see what happens.

Just pitch it to bill gates and see what happens.

[dnaleor]

wasn't maxwell here because of that?

no seriously, it's sad those comments get burried so fast. but the real discussion about this was/is in the gold collapsing-bitcoin up thread anyway. monero was not mentioned too often, but everyone was thinking about it for sure

i still dont know the truth, i think only a few know. if its really possible to have a real functioning RSSC without telling what goes in an out? how will it be secured? how pegged if at all? so many questions, i better just stay with monero

if tptb_need_war makes an RS coin i will maybe buy some too

Glad to see the term "RSSC" catch on

[iCEBREAKER]

Lack of ANC github activity has caused me to lose hope of any Zerocoin implementation. CryptoNote exists, the future is now. #XMR #BBR

Tweeted to 1000+ followers

Welcome to Monero Mountain, home of the Wild & Free^TM mustangs!

May I suggest on-boarding your followers via fluffypony's excellent introduction?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEVm1dMn5Ks

[iCEBREAKER]

LTC

Litecoin.

LTC!  LTC!  LTC !

LTC does two things, and does them well.  Primarily, it acts as the main (IE high market cap/volume) hot-swappable backup/failover chain to BTC.  Secondly, as BTC load tend towards capacity, LTC's 4x more rapid blocks are thus the most natural place for overflow tx.  (LTC is also most suitable for cross-chain mixing, but that function is arguably subsumed by the previous points.)

LTC is Done^TM and now in maintenance mode, sparing it from Blocksize Missile Crisis type situations.  Doesn't hurt that it was made by the eminently respectable coblee and enjoys the 2nd highest degree of ASIC-facilitated network security either.

Monero is THE altcoin other than bitcoin.

Something can have a less than 50% chance of success AND still be a GREAT investment on the basis of EV or expected ROI.

For a simple example if I thought ABC had a 90% chance of being worth zero (100% loss) in 3 years but a 10% chance of gaining 20,000% I would buy a lot of it.

For the sake of consistency let's recognize the above quoted reasoning also applies to LTC, in a form amplified by its longer track record and greater network effects.

Eastwind's assertion is not verifiably true given objective market conditions.  It makes logical sense to us Mustangs, but let's not overly delude ourselves in the reprehensibly absurd manner of circle-jerking Dash cultists.  What's next, herding us off BTCT to a private mustangs-only echo chamber forum?   

[vgo]

More dumpity dump??   

[shitaifan2013]

More dumpity dump??   

not really.

[TrueCryptonaire]

The market psychology in my opinion has two alternatives now:

-It could build a base and a long-waited whale comes and brings the price higher
-It could make the bagholders bags heavier and therefore in order to encourage new buying from the bagholders, the price must adjust down.

Even holding the support level we need new buying taking place all the time not to mention to rise the price.