[XMR] Monero Speculation

[ArticMine]

...

There is still a minimum amount of time needed for holding XBT, XMR etc even if it is used as a bridge. It is this minimum hold time that in the end gives value to the currency.  By the way the same is true for government / central bank fiat currency (where holding for an extended period of time has significant cost), or even commodity money such as precious metals.

That amount of time is infinitesimal with good software. These transactions in and out of bitcoin can be accomplished in fractions of a second.

Precious metals have great holding appeal. People just dump money into them and let them sit, even while paying large sums of money to guard them.

I think games are one good way to lock up a cryptocurrency and take it out of supply. Much better than merchant activity.
We should think of other mechanisms that require longer-term holding instead of holding for fractions of one second. That's really my point. I'm not praising DASH.

EDIT: the unbanked want to be banked. They just don't want inconvenient or corrupt negative interest banking or banking with fake exchange rates (as in Argentina). They are not cryptoanarchists who want to hold bitcoin.

There is a minimum cost associated with banking that makes it simply uneconomical for both the bank and the customer when the customer is poor. The only way to get rid of cash or crypto-currency is to get rid of poverty.

[jehst]

One thing that was really good for bitcoin (for a while) was bitcoin-denominated stocks. ASICMiner was around since 2011 and had great returns for a while. If you wanted a seat on its board, you needed 5000 BTC. If you wanted to buy shares of it, you needed BTC. Dividends were paid in BTC and were often reinvested. All that BTC stayed BTC and was taken out of supply for extended periods of time, even as those shares were traded back and forth between people.

An XMR-denominated equity that delivers returns based in XMR would be 1000x better than Bitpay-type activity.

[bumpk1nK]

im still watching this closely... we'll she how she end up. Either dead or #2 on market cap. I don't se a middle.

[pa]

One thing that was really good for bitcoin (for a while) was bitcoin-denominated stocks. ASICMiner was around since 2011 and had great returns for a while. If you wanted a seat on its board, you needed 5000 BTC. If you wanted to buy shares of it, you needed BTC. Dividends were paid in BTC and were often reinvested. All that BTC stayed BTC and was taken out of supply for extended periods of time, even as those shares were traded back and forth between people.

An XMR-denominated equity that delivers returns based in XMR would be 1000x better than Bitpay-type activity.

Brilliant idea; would love to see an XMR equivalent!

[Brilliantrocket]

So my simple question to Brilliant Rocket is this, "If another coin is offering a better incentive for operating a masternode and the price starts rising exponentially, will xdarkdashians hold out of loyalty or move to where the most profit is?

And I swear I'm not trying to convince myself to buy crave or other centralizing node junk. I'm just pointing out a very likely scenario.


I do agree that services that reward people for holding are a good idea, I just don't think we should be using flawed models as inspiration.

Why does it have to be one or the other? I've looked into other coins with masternodes, but haven't found any that I've liked. If in the future someone uses masternodes to do something interesting and useful, I'd consider buying in. Yes, the masternode system does create a perverse incentive for node operators to attack each other, as Fluffypony pointed out, but I somehow doubt that this will manifest on a large scale.

[smooth]

EDIT: the unbanked want to be banked. They just don't want inconvenient banking or corrupt, negative interest rate banking or banking with fake exchange rates (as in Argentina). They are not cryptoanarchists who want to hold bitcoin.

I'm not sure there is a third alternative.

I don't agree the unbanked will use bitpay or circle or coinbase. If they do that they would be banked. There is a reason they aren't banked.

[pa]

A decentralized prediction market (like http://www.augur.net/) could be an important use-case for an anonymous coin. You'd get better predictions on controversial topics if users' privacy were protected. Is a Truthcoin-like project doable with Monero?

[iCEBREAKER]

A decentralized prediction market (like http://www.augur.net/) could be an important use-case for an anonymous coin. You'd get better predictions on controversial topics if users' privacy were protected. Is a Truthcoin-like project doable with Monero?

Although ideal, the XMR prediction market need not be decentalized.  An onion or i2p site would work fine too.

[ArticMine]

So my simple question to Brilliant Rocket is this, "If another coin is offering a better incentive for operating a masternode and the price starts rising exponentially, will xdarkdashians hold out of loyalty or move to where the most profit is?

And I swear I'm not trying to convince myself to buy crave or other centralizing node junk. I'm just pointing out a very likely scenario.


I do agree that services that reward people for holding are a good idea, I just don't think we should be using flawed models as inspiration.

Why does it have to be one or the other? I've looked into other coins with masternodes, but haven't found any that I've liked. If in the future someone uses masternodes to do something interesting and useful, I'd consider buying in. Yes, the masternode system does create a perverse incentive for node operators to attack each other, as Fluffypony pointed out, but I somehow doubt that this will manifest on a large scale.

My take is that borrowed stake is the Achilles Heel of any proof of stake system, since once has stake and no exposure. With masternodes the problem is compounded since there is a minimum capital threshold in order make a return and this creates a perverse incentive for borrowed stake. Let us say the masternode return is 25%. A "banker" can then offer say 15% on amounts below the masternode threshold commingle the funds and invest the borrowed funds at a 25% gross return in masternodes. The larger the "bank" becomes the higher the net return for the "bank" since the left over amount that is two small for an additional masternode becomes a smaller portion of the over all portfolio. The result is one or more very large "banks" with a huge "stake" with the corresponding decision making power, and little or no exposure. This is what caused the near collapse of the US banking system in 2008.

Edit:  I actually consider over the long term the threat of borrowed stake on masternodes to be much more serious than the fratricidal attacks Fluffypony pointed out.

[generalizethis]

So my simple question to Brilliant Rocket is this, "If another coin is offering a better incentive for operating a masternode and the price starts rising exponentially, will xdarkdashians hold out of loyalty or move to where the most profit is?

And I swear I'm not trying to convince myself to buy crave or other centralizing node junk. I'm just pointing out a very likely scenario.


I do agree that services that reward people for holding are a good idea, I just don't think we should be using flawed models as inspiration.

Why does it have to be one or the other? I've looked into other coins with masternodes, but haven't found any that I've liked. If in the future someone uses masternodes to do something interesting and useful, I'd consider buying in. Yes, the masternode system does create a perverse incentive for node operators to attack each other, as Fluffypony pointed out, but I somehow doubt that this will manifest on a large scale.

It doesn't have to be one or the other, but people will most likely see one that is superior in ROI and start using it which will increase the price which will increase ROI which will increase the price.... I predict that (and please save this) more and more masternode coins will come out and we will have the same lemmingesque jumping from coin to coin as we do with P&D at the moment. Reasons: people like profit, people get bored, people like the new, the innovative, the catch phrase, the shinier apple with the smaller worm inside, the next great rush....

Somehow doubting is not a convincing argument. I somehow doubted anyone would want follow anyone on twitter, but in hindsight I missed the obvious business and media implications along with famous people using it as a fanboy gathering device (the latter I still think need their own lives, but whatever).

I may be wrong, but that seems like the biggest threat to the current market of dash--if it ever gets to Bitcoin status, it will have a whole other set of problems courtesy of LEAs, the media (that's a ponzi label that can stick courtesy of amway nodes) and the flawed economic model that Artic Mine so eloquently pointed out.

But lets get back to Monero: what would you suggest as a good way to keep Monero held and have a good long-term ROI? I'd like a XMR derivative fund, but only if Risto was the custodian.

[jehst]

EDIT: the unbanked want to be banked. They just don't want inconvenient banking or corrupt, negative interest rate banking or banking with fake exchange rates (as in Argentina). They are not cryptoanarchists who want to hold bitcoin.

I'm not sure there is a third alternative.

Alternative 3: Use an exchange as a bank. There are zero fees incurred by keeping USD or EUR on a  Bitfinex, Bitstamp, Kraken, Btcchina, etc. account
For example, an Argentine will hold his money in the form of bitfinexUSD on bitfinex on his smartphone. Then, when he needs to spend money, he buys the necessary amount of BTC and sends it to the merchant. Then the merchant immediately sells the BTC on his smartphone for krakenEUR or whatever he wants to hold.
Advantages: No volatility risk
Disadvantages: Counterparty risk of exchange failure (though this can be mitigated by spreading cash out among multiple exchanges)

Alternative 4: Hold and use bitUSD/nubits/ethereum USD-stable smart contract/etc.
Advantages: No volatility
Disadvantages: Systemic failure (black swan collapse) probably inevitable at some point

Alternative 5: User-issued, real-world redeemable USD tokens on OpenTransactions/Counterparty/NXT/etc.
Advantages: No volatility.
Disadvantages: Counterparty risk of issuer being a fraud

Alt #1 is paper cash (which can be used with western union or informal money transfer a.k.a. hawala)
Alt #2 is holding bitcoin/xmr for extended periods of time

Personally, I think people are most likely to use a combination of Alternative #1 and Alternative #3.

[jehst]

But lets get back to Monero: what would you suggest as a good way to keep Monero held and have a good long-term ROI? I'd like a XMR derivative fund, but only if Risto was the custodian.

I think a prediction market is very good. If we are betting on an event that occurs next year, we both need to send XMR to the market and it's held there for a year.
That fits the bill exactly. But BTC prediction markets are already well-entrenched.

[generalizethis]

But lets get back to Monero: what would you suggest as a good way to keep Monero held and have a good long-term ROI? I'd like a XMR derivative fund, but only if Risto was the custodian.

I think a prediction market is very good. If we are betting on an event that occurs next year, we both need to send XMR to the market and it's held there for a year.
That fits the bill exactly. But BTC prediction markets are already well-entrenched.

I don't think it would be hard to create a market like that. Here's a simple model where users create their own bets and are in charge of the payouts, time-length, and rules: https://www.betmoose.com/bets In full-disclosure I'm head of MMA promotions and marketing for the site--still don't know how or why.

Why couldn't we have something similar dedicated to Monero?

[jehst]

But lets get back to Monero: what would you suggest as a good way to keep Monero held and have a good long-term ROI? I'd like a XMR derivative fund, but only if Risto was the custodian.

I think a prediction market is very good. If we are betting on an event that occurs next year, we both need to send XMR to the market and it's held there for a year.
That fits the bill exactly. But BTC prediction markets are already well-entrenched.

I don't think it would be hard to create a market like that. Here's a simple model where users create their own bets and are in charge of the payouts, time-length, and rules: https://www.betmoose.com/bets In full-disclosure I'm head of MMA promotions and marketing for the site--still don't know how or why.

Why couldn't we have something similar dedicated to Monero?

I've never used a prediction market ever. They don't appeal to me. Someone else would have to evaluate the possible demand. I'm terrible at assessing demand. For example, I thought demand for sound money such as bitcoin would be huge given how pervasive and insidious the counterfeiting of fiat currencies is. It turns out that people don't really care that much.

[smooth]

EDIT: the unbanked want to be banked. They just don't want inconvenient banking or corrupt, negative interest rate banking or banking with fake exchange rates (as in Argentina). They are not cryptoanarchists who want to hold bitcoin.

I'm not sure there is a third alternative.

Alternative 3: Use an exchange as a bank.

If these get big, they become banks, and they won't serve the unbanked. They're slipping under the regulatory radar by being small (and somewhat, new) now is all.

[rdnkjdi]

Sooo I just read all the drama between DRK / Otah dumping / Smooth.

Two comments.

A.  If the roles were reversed (XMR had higher market cap with massive deceptive (per DRK's opinion) instamine) - trolling from DRK crowd would be much worse in XMR than XMR trolling is in DRK.  

B.  I see no issue raising the cons of a coin more than once or having extended discussions about it.  You have any clue how many people have lost their shirts so a few could get rich in this space?  For every 1 that's made money there are 10 that have lost.  Usually from not knowing the entire story behind pump and dump groups, shadowy devs, premines, technology that was not what it claimed to be, etc.

The more accessible the truth is for the masses about the weakness in each crypto then that's a good thing.  The whales who get pissy when the narrative of their coin is attacked (this goes for Risto & friends as much as anyone) need to get the f*** over it.  Quit being a crybaby.

[generalizethis]

x-post--reddit has a Monero market page  

www.reddit.com/r/moneromarkets/

Now we just need a buttcoin clone to know we've made it! I suggest Morono, Blocka.

[urubu]

Now we just need a buttcoin clone to know we've made it! I suggest Morono, Blocka.

Perhaps Monerror?  or Boner -o

[addseo1115]

 :)All information here is so nice. Thanks for posting here.

[aminorex]

I thought demand for sound money such as bitcoin would be huge given how pervasive and insidious the counterfeiting of fiat currencies is. It turns out that people don't really care that much.

that's how common knowledge works...until it doesn't.