[XMR] Monero Speculation

[OrientA]

#2 on voting list at cryptsy with more than 13K.
Though not knowing how many votes are paid (via cryptsy points), it gives an impression of how many people are involved and/or interested in Monero. I guess that the number of cryptsy-abstainers exceeds the number of paid votes, but that's a personal opinion, which may be completely wrong.

Anyway: impressive progress in that short time.

It is very impressive,even though I think most are paid votes.

[1714932710]

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[1714932710]

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[1714932710]

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[wachtwoord]

#2 on voting list at cryptsy with more than 13K.
Though not knowing how many votes are paid (via cryptsy points), it gives an impression of how many people are involved and/or interested in Monero. I guess that the number of cryptsy-abstainers exceeds the number of paid votes, but that's a personal opinion, which may be completely wrong.

Anyway: impressive progress in that short time.

It is very impressive,even though I think most are paid votes.

Monero cannot have paid votes (see the absence of an address).

[farfiman]

#2 on voting list at cryptsy with more than 13K.
Though not knowing how many votes are paid (via cryptsy points), it gives an impression of how many people are involved and/or interested in Monero. I guess that the number of cryptsy-abstainers exceeds the number of paid votes, but that's a personal opinion, which may be completely wrong.

Anyway: impressive progress in that short time.

It is very impressive,even though I think most are paid votes.

Monero cannot have paid votes (see the absence of an address).

Buy cryptsy points with any coin.
vote with those points

[aminorex]

The price crashed within 5 minutes of BCX threat on Poloniex trollbox, with very large volume. It seemed that at least one very large holder did cash out because of the threat.
You may call him "weak hand", but certainly he had enough to move the market.

I call him Santa Claus.

[rpietila]

The price crashed within 5 minutes of BCX threat on Poloniex trollbox, with very large volume. It seemed that at least one very large holder did cash out because of the threat.
You may call him "weak hand", but certainly he had enough to move the market.

I call him Santa Claus.

The threat was (likely intentionally) issued at a time when me and several other large holders were online in the trollbox. I don't know if the other holders sold, but if they did, it was likely in anticipation of a bigger drop (which never materialized, so they bought back at a loss).

What I do remember for certain is that most of the bid side was pulled instead of being sold into, resulting in <50 BTC of bids at the lowest point instead of the normal ~300 BTC and high of >600 BTC. It builded up in minutes after seeing the initial flashcrash to 0.00280.

By the way, contrary to what many think, the higher lows trend has not been violated daily vwap-wise. The last low from August was 0.00305 and lowest during this bottom is 0.00310.

[NewLiberty]

The price crashed within 5 minutes of BCX threat on Poloniex trollbox, with very large volume. It seemed that at least one very large holder did cash out because of the threat.
You may call him "weak hand", but certainly he had enough to move the market.

I call him Santa Claus.

The threat was (likely intentionally) issued at a time when me and several other large holders were online in the trollbox. I don't know if the other holders sold, but if they did, it was likely in anticipation of a bigger drop (which never materialized, so they bought back at a loss).

What I do remember for certain is that most of the bid side was pulled instead of being sold into, resulting in <50 BTC of bids at the lowest point instead of the normal ~300 BTC and high of >600 BTC. It builded up in minutes after seeing the initial flashcrash to 0.00280.

By the way, contrary to what many think, the higher lows trend has not been violated daily vwap-wise. The last low from August was 0.00305 and lowest during this bottom is 0.00310.

Confirmed.
I was also online, pulled bids, sold nothing from this.  Since then have bought more than those bids I pulled.

[oda.krell]

I'll say again what I said a few pages ago: XMR is in a fragile balance now that almost eerily resembles the fragile balance BTC is in. If there is only one prediction I'd be allowed to make, it would be that, short-to-mid term at least, XMR won't escape a breakdown if BTC enters another breakdown, but has a chance to outperform BTC if BTC stabilizes in the region of high 300s, and moves upwards from there.

[rdnkjdi]

I'll say again what I said a few pages ago: XMR is in a fragile balance now that almost eerily resembles the fragile balance BTC is in. If there is only one prediction I'd be allowed to make, it would be that, short-to-mid term at least, XMR won't escape a breakdown if BTC enters another breakdown, but has a chance to outperform BTC if BTC stabilizes in the region of high 300s, and moves upwards from there.

This is a little off topic.  But how can we expect bitcoin to stabilize when the paypal AND circle announcement did almost nothing & it continues it's decline?  I don't get it ... unless what we have a huge speculation bubble that is about to burst.

Almost everyone I know has now been exposed to bitcoin (and not by me).  I even saw a reference to it in Parks & Recreation the other day.  Maybe we are entering the adoption phase & exiting the "speculation on adoption" phase?

[rpietila]

Almost everyone I know has now been exposed to bitcoin (and not by me).  I even saw a reference to it in Parks & Recreation the other day.  Maybe we are entering the adoption phase & exiting the "speculation on adoption" phase?

Per user, Bitcoin's marketcap is about $5,000, which is not exactly a huge figure given that the median is probably <$1,000. It has about 1 million owners, unchanged from late 2013.

If adoption goes to 10 times what it is now, likely also average investment goes higher, leading to 10+ times price growth. Otherwise the math does not add up.

And since we are in a Monero thread, and Monero's marketcap just declined to less than 1/1000 of Bitcoin's, the same numbers apply, but there is (even) more room for growth.

[oda.krell]

I'll say again what I said a few pages ago: XMR is in a fragile balance now that almost eerily resembles the fragile balance BTC is in. If there is only one prediction I'd be allowed to make, it would be that, short-to-mid term at least, XMR won't escape a breakdown if BTC enters another breakdown, but has a chance to outperform BTC if BTC stabilizes in the region of high 300s, and moves upwards from there.

Of course, Monero is just Speculation right now and for now, almost no real use except it being proved a good altcoin for storage of value.

Maybe, but in the longer term speculation on future valuation of XMR might well detach from speculation of future BTC valuation, since there are good reasons to assume different usage cases and adoption scenarios.

[dEBRUYNE]

The price crashed within 5 minutes of BCX threat on Poloniex trollbox, with very large volume. It seemed that at least one very large holder did cash out because of the threat.
You may call him "weak hand", but certainly he had enough to move the market.

I call him Santa Claus.

The threat was (likely intentionally) issued at a time when me and several other large holders were online in the trollbox. I don't know if the other holders sold, but if they did, it was likely in anticipation of a bigger drop (which never materialized, so they bought back at a loss).

What I do remember for certain is that most of the bid side was pulled instead of being sold into, resulting in <50 BTC of bids at the lowest point instead of the normal ~300 BTC and high of >600 BTC. It builded up in minutes after seeing the initial flashcrash to 0.00280.

By the way, contrary to what many think, the higher lows trend has not been violated daily vwap-wise. The last low from August was 0.00305 and lowest during this bottom is 0.00310.

Warz stated in the trollbox he sold about 80% off his stash, but he would buy back if this threat was over.

[dEBRUYNE]

The price crashed within 5 minutes of BCX threat on Poloniex trollbox, with very large volume. It seemed that at least one very large holder did cash out because of the threat.
You may call him "weak hand", but certainly he had enough to move the market.

I call him Santa Claus.

The threat was (likely intentionally) issued at a time when me and several other large holders were online in the trollbox. I don't know if the other holders sold, but if they did, it was likely in anticipation of a bigger drop (which never materialized, so they bought back at a loss).

What I do remember for certain is that most of the bid side was pulled instead of being sold into, resulting in <50 BTC of bids at the lowest point instead of the normal ~300 BTC and high of >600 BTC. It builded up in minutes after seeing the initial flashcrash to 0.00280.

By the way, contrary to what many think, the higher lows trend has not been violated daily vwap-wise. The last low from August was 0.00305 and lowest during this bottom is 0.00310.

Warz stated in the trollbox he sold about 80% off his stash, but he would buy back if this threat was over.

But then he'll be at loss

rpietila is right, we lose good folks

He said he wouldn't mind that (buying back at a loss), he just wasn't comfertable with the amount off his stash then and the attack. Warz, if this isn't right please correct me!

[NewLiberty]

The price crashed within 5 minutes of BCX threat on Poloniex trollbox, with very large volume. It seemed that at least one very large holder did cash out because of the threat.
You may call him "weak hand", but certainly he had enough to move the market.

I call him Santa Claus.

The threat was (likely intentionally) issued at a time when me and several other large holders were online in the trollbox. I don't know if the other holders sold, but if they did, it was likely in anticipation of a bigger drop (which never materialized, so they bought back at a loss).

What I do remember for certain is that most of the bid side was pulled instead of being sold into, resulting in <50 BTC of bids at the lowest point instead of the normal ~300 BTC and high of >600 BTC. It builded up in minutes after seeing the initial flashcrash to 0.00280.

By the way, contrary to what many think, the higher lows trend has not been violated daily vwap-wise. The last low from August was 0.00305 and lowest during this bottom is 0.00310.

Warz stated in the trollbox he sold about 80% off his stash, but he would buy back if this threat was over.

But then he'll be at loss

rpietila is right, we lose good folks

He said he wouldn't mind that (buying back at a loss), he just wasn't comfertable with the amount off his stash then and the attack. Warz, if this isn't right please correct me!

Why doesn't he just drive over to BCX's place and hand him wads of cash?
It was over when it started.

If he is waiting until BCX declares it over, then he sold his coins to BCX at the bottom and will buy back after BCX pumps it up by deceiding when and how to announce it is 'over'.

Seriously.  If he is thinking of buying back, he shouldn't be waiting on BCX.

[robinwilliams]

Buy depth down to 258btc & there's a 178btc sell wall at .004

[nioc]

Buy depth down to 258btc & there's a 178btc sell wall at .004

I guess they are confident the price is going up.

Or they are manipulating the ask/sell total

You don't think it's going to stay there do you?

[dEBRUYNE]

The price crashed within 5 minutes of BCX threat on Poloniex trollbox, with very large volume. It seemed that at least one very large holder did cash out because of the threat.
You may call him "weak hand", but certainly he had enough to move the market.

I call him Santa Claus.

The threat was (likely intentionally) issued at a time when me and several other large holders were online in the trollbox. I don't know if the other holders sold, but if they did, it was likely in anticipation of a bigger drop (which never materialized, so they bought back at a loss).

What I do remember for certain is that most of the bid side was pulled instead of being sold into, resulting in <50 BTC of bids at the lowest point instead of the normal ~300 BTC and high of >600 BTC. It builded up in minutes after seeing the initial flashcrash to 0.00280.

By the way, contrary to what many think, the higher lows trend has not been violated daily vwap-wise. The last low from August was 0.00305 and lowest during this bottom is 0.00310.

Warz stated in the trollbox he sold about 80% off his stash, but he would buy back if this threat was over.

But then he'll be at loss

rpietila is right, we lose good folks

He said he wouldn't mind that (buying back at a loss), he just wasn't comfertable with the amount off his stash then and the attack. Warz, if this isn't right please correct me!

Why doesn't he just drive over to BCX's place and hand him wads of cash?
It was over when it started.

If he is waiting until BCX declares it over, then he sold his coins to BCX at the bottom and will buy back after BCX pumps it up by deceiding when and how to announce it is 'over'.

Seriously.  If he is thinking of buying back, he shouldn't be waiting on BCX.

I don't know if he already bought back in, just stating what was said then because someone asked if any big holder sold. Don't have more info. But let's see how this plays out.

[pinky]

Buy depth down to 258btc & there's a 178btc sell wall at .004

I guess they are confident the price is going up.

Or they are manipulating the ask/sell total

You don't think it's going to stay there do you?

The bubble has popped. Only whales were buying XMR - other small time investors that really matters and drive the market up don't give shit about XMR as they see other coins with more potential and less risk. Growth has now virtually stopped and is around 1% per week (IMO strong bear market for any coin) and prices are just too high to sustain 0.003 level for much longer (every rally is smaller and got hammered big time, longterm trendline is broken). But hey, I might be totally wrong.

[robinwilliams]

The bubble has popped. Only whales were buying XMR - other small time investors that really matters and drive the market up don't give shit about XMR as they see other coins with more potential and less risk. Growth has now virtually stopped and is around 1% per week (IMO strong bear market for any coin) and prices are just too high to sustain 0.003 level for much longer (every rally is smaller and got hammered big time, longterm trendline is broken). But hey, I might be totally wrong.

coins such as?

[pinky]

The bubble has popped. Only whales were buying XMR - other small time investors that really matters and drive the market up don't give shit about XMR as they see other coins with more potential and less risk. Growth has now virtually stopped and is around 1% per week (IMO strong bear market for any coin) and prices are just too high to sustain 0.003 level for much longer (every rally is smaller and got hammered big time, longterm trendline is broken). But hey, I might be totally wrong.

coins such as?

Coins that proclaim anonimity.

[smooth]

Deleted some back-and-forth name calling and sniping directed at and about pinky's post. If you disagree, please respond substantively.