[XMR] Monero Speculation

[NeuroticFish]

"We do not know Ryan's current location, and he is unfortunately the only one with access to customer funds." - Mintpal, twitter.

https://twitter.com/MintPalExchange/status/523939006988701696

Ryan is probably on the run/cashing out. This is disgusting, everyone at Moolah.io needs to be prosecuted to the highest extent, I'm sure the other members knew better than to allow 1 guy access to the customer funds...They're probably all in on it.

Very hard to just take people at their word on the internet, but this definitely presents an alternate viewpoint: http://pastebin.com/VYpQ5CWA

TLTR; Can someone summarice this?

Ryan aka Moolah CEO seems to be the only one that can access Mintpal cold wallets (where most of the funds should be). Moolah acquired (more or less) not so long ago.
Ryan was declared a scammer, he seems to be hiding now.
He is a smart person, he uses proxies from Russia and China when he comes online so it's hard to find his real location.


And the pastebin story is the story of one of dogecoin devteam members about how was Ryan behaving with his partners. Quite an interesting (but very long) read, that also convinced me too that moolah is indeed a scammer.


The conclusion is that most of people that had big funds for long time on Mintpal may never get them back.

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[dEBRUYNE]

Monero has lost 2 positions in the coinmarketcap in favor of cannabiscoin and nubits.

Something is wrong here

Cannabis coin is down 73% today. Nubits made a sudden jump of 2 mil marketcap to 6 mil marketcap (Have a look yourself here:http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/nubits/#charts (on 17 october). Don't really know what's going on there, but it isn't threat to me.

[rdnkjdi]

Monero has lost 2 positions in the coinmarketcap in favor of cannabiscoin and nubits.

Something is wrong here

Cannabis coin is down 73% today. Nubits made a sudden jump of 2 mil marketcap to 6 mil marketcap (Have a look yourself here:http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/nubits/#charts (on 17 october). Don't really know what's going on there, but it isn't threat to me.

Darkcoin is doing badly too. 

It appears the anon fad is over.

[rpietila]

It appears the anon fad is over.

Very good for Monero.

[rdnkjdi]

Very good for Monero.

how so?

[Come-In-Behind]

Very good for Monero.

how so?

I don' believe it's over. Until one coin(I'm betting on Monero) reigns supreme completely, then it's not over and there's always going to be new coins coming out offering blah blah, an people buying/pumping/dumping them.

[aminorex]

If the anon fad is over, then hype will have less impact on price.  Technical merit and community effort will play a larger role in determining the outcome.  Lows are always the best time to invest.  If the froth is gone, volatility declines and appreciation is more reliable.  The end of the bubble is always good for the high-quality enterprises.  Their fly-by-night competition is weeded out by the depressive lows.  Fewer fools throwing money around means less malinvestment.  I.e. investment goes to the most fit.  Because monero is the most fit, monero will benefit.

Let us recap the situation and the contenders:

ANC - Zerocoin has serious UX problems due to high computational complexity and data-intensive operation.  Also, it is moon math, and only time and extensive review within the cryptographic community will lend confidence.  A promising crypto in the zygote stage.
DRK - Snake oil, plus instamine, plus ponzi, large entrepreneurial community, late-term fetal development stage.
XMR - High-quality well-tested crypto, large development and entrepreneurial community, mid-term fetal development stage.

Nothing else has enough promise*liquidity to be a contender.  Of the three, XMR and ANC are respectable.  XMR is substantially ahead of ANC in terms of technical development, mind-share and liquidity.  DRK is substantially ahead of XMR in those terms, but it is technically unfit for most legitimate purposes.

[rdnkjdi]

Very good for Monero.

how so?

I don' believe it's over. Until one coin(I'm betting on Monero) reigns supreme completely, then it's not over and there's always going to be new coins coming out offering blah blah, an people buying/pumping/dumping them.

thing is - look at darkcoin.  Reigned supreme as the earliest and it's dumped even though they've open sourced.

XC - PoS 100 day POW closed sourced shit.  Moved on to building the blocknet and incorporating their own company.  Doing literally anything they can to pump the price and it's still dumping.  Out of the top 20.

BTCD - Dumping even though work on the SuperNET continues and BTCD is going to be the "backbone"

The number of primarily anon coins in the top 20 is falling off.  XC will continue dropping spaces (closed sourced anon doesn't belong in the top 20).  I expect BTCD to drop more.  The trend seems bearish for anon coins IMO.

Maybe the point is that the market is more rational about picking winners in a bear trend than in a bull / bubble trend?

[Come-In-Behind]

Very good for Monero.

how so?

I don' believe it's over. Until one coin(I'm betting on Monero) reigns supreme completely, then it's not over and there's always going to be new coins coming out offering blah blah, an people buying/pumping/dumping them.

thing is - look at darkcoin.  Reigned supreme as the earliest and it's dumped even though they've open sourced.

XC - PoS 100 day POW closed sourced shit.  Moved on to building the blocknet and incorporating their own company.  Doing literally anything they can to pump the price and it's still dumping.  Out of the top 20.

BTCD - Dumping even though work on the SuperNET continues and BTCD is going to be the "backbone"

The number of primarily anon coins in the top 20 is falling off.  XC will continue dropping spaces (closed sourced anon doesn't belong in the top 20).  I expect BTCD to drop more.  The trend seems bearish for anon coins IMO.

Maybe the point is that the market is more rational about picking winners in a bear trend than in a bull / bubble trend?

Maybe the point is that the market is more rational about picking winners in a bear trend than in a bull / bubble trend? - I guess that's true. This could also be due partly to Bitcoin's bearish status lately. If Bitcoin spikes up(as it did in May, also when DRK hit it's ATH, and Monero shortly after in June), then I suspect the fad will be "reborn". I might be completely wrong however, but I think until a clear winner has taken place, the whole anon craze is going to continue.

[aminorex]

I think until a clear winner has taken place, the whole anon craze is going to continue.

Personally, I see facts on the ground as having already determined the clear winner.  I say this as someone who was in DRK before XMR, and who would bail on XMR for ANC were it not for the problems I see in ANC disqualifying it from dominance.  At this point I think it would require a new player with a fundamental innovation and substantial financial backing to displace XMR from leadership.  

By leadership I do not mean marketcap, or user-base, although those are important factors (marketcap because liquidity providers must first and foremost provide liquidity, and user-base because the size of the user-base contributes to but does not determine the quality and scale of the development and entrepreneurial communities).  I mean the overall combination of the critically necessary factors for success, among which are the well-founded trust of the community in the major actors in all aspects of the socioeconomic network, the balance of architecture and design features, the quality of the software project management and development community, and the resources of the entrepreneurial community, as well as the legal and political exposure profile, and the market-suitability of the technical infrastructure.

The market is not rational in any epistemic sense.  But reality forces the market to pick the most fit for an economic niche in the long run.

[rpietila]

I think until a clear winner has taken place, the whole anon craze is going to continue.

Personally, I see facts on the ground as having already determined the clear winner.  I say this as someone who was in DRK before XMR, and who would bail on XMR for ANC were it not for the problems I see in ANC disqualifying it from dominance.  At this point I think it would require a new player with a fundamental innovation and substantial financial backing to displace XMR from leadership.  

By leadership I do not mean marketcap, or user-base, although those are important factors (marketcap because liquidity providers must first and foremost provide liquidity, and user-base because the size of the user-base contributes to but does not determine the quality and scale of the development and entrepreneurial communities).  I mean the overall combination of the critically necessary factors for success, among which are the well-founded trust of the community in the major actors in all aspects of the socioeconomic network, the balance of architecture and design features, the quality of the software project management and development community, and the resources of the entrepreneurial community, as well as the legal and political exposure profile, and the market-suitability of the technical infrastructure.

The market is not rational in any epistemic sense.  But reality forces the market to pick the most fit for an economic niche in the long run.

Could not have said it better myself. Or let me try....

If a function F(t) has a certain value in a certain point of t, knowing the value (market cap) has little significance in forecasting the future value. It requires knowing the function, at least partly, to be able to forecast efficiently. XMR and BTC have the largest highest-order terms. This wins in the long run.

[dnaleor]

Monero never was as stable as now... Realy amazing


Let's hope that when BTC goes up in fiat terms, XMR will follow.

[nakaone]

the winner will be taken once zerocash is out - anc failed so miserably that I think it is dead.

I think we will see the classical situation of two networks competing - the dominant ledger from the cryptonote implementations which is by no question monero and the dominat zerocash implementation.

from a game-theoretic point odds for monero are not that bad, it will strongly depend how zerocash is distributed.

[dnaleor]

DRK is now in direct competation with XMR for market cap:



when we are above DRK, we'll clearly be the market leader.

[dEBRUYNE]

Monero never was as stable as now... Realy amazing
Image

Let's hope that when BTC goes up in fiat terms, XMR will follow.

Seems like there is still pretty much sell pressure. Everytime someone marketbuys 5-10k, the asks fill again after a few hours. For example: someone bought 7k to 0.0026 between 5:30 and 6:00 (GMT+1) and now there is again 7k till 0.0026.

[pa]

Sidechains vs Monero? see: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2k070h/enabling_blockchain_innovations_with_pegged/clgnykt

[nakaone]

Sidechains vs Monero? see: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2k070h/enabling_blockchain_innovations_with_pegged/clgnykt

did not read the paper - but I remember the discussion from april/may - is the idea still to two-way peg the sidechain? If yes this will fail miserably. Unpegged it is a very interesting concept.

[rdnkjdi]

Sidechains vs Monero? see: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2k070h/enabling_blockchain_innovations_with_pegged/clgnykt

I'd be interested to know if this could work with the cryptonote codebase.

Tying the anon technology to bitcoin would be fine with me.

[smooth]

Sidechains vs Monero? see: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2k070h/enabling_blockchain_innovations_with_pegged/clgnykt

did not read the paper - but I remember the discussion from april/may - is the idea still to two-way peg the sidechain? If yes this will fail miserably. Unpegged it is a very interesting concept.

Two way-peg is still part of the concept. I don't know if they are pursing unpegged or 1-way sidechains at all. I would guess not as part of the intent seems to be to rally around the use of BTC as the currency for everything.

[aminorex]

the winner will be taken once zerocash is out - anc failed so miserably that I think it is dead.

I think we will see the classical situation of two networks competing - the dominant ledger from the cryptonote implementations which is by no question monero and the dominat zerocash implementation.

from a game-theoretic point odds for monero are not that bad, it will strongly depend how zerocash is distributed.

zerocash has data size and compute time issues which make it unsuitable for many uses cases of xmr.  
it also has the trusted mint problem, last i heard.
for those reasons i doubt that it can attain sufficient liquidity to displace monero as the dominant provider of dark liquidity.