First episode of Peripherie looked damn good.
Peripheral? just making sure |
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OT: I vote...so...a simple US based story.
Always trying to vote early as I dislike lines on election date.
Not every state is the same, but here is how voting occurs in mine (cry or laugh):
1. You give them your photo id, then after signing some form to confirm that you are, indeed, the "guy", you are given two strange looking sheets (made of plastic?).
2. You suppose to proceed to a voting machine and insert the first, but not second sheet in it (before voting).
3. Then you proceed clicking/touching (touch screen) on a 100 pages one by one (only one choice per page!), while crouching over a screen that is properly positioned for people that are less than 5ft tall.
4. Then you "submit" and your plastic page disappears into machine, then comes out at which step you suppose to yank it out and stick in the second sheet.
5. Finally, you yank out the second sheet and then move to yet another machine and feed your two sheets there...at which moment you "voted" upon "submit" command or something like this.
TL;DR the whole system is made to be incredibly time consuming and overall bizarre. I cannot imagine how people will manage on Nov 8.
One disappointment is that this year there were only a few libertarian candidates. I guess that party is not competitive at all (in my state).
..man..this should be done by any other method, but this.
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we live in a dream
where the success of bitcoin
already happened
#haiku
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Had to sell a smol amount for end of year bills and expenses.
Now it will go up.
You're welcome, WO.
Breaking. It's going up anyway because bitcoins CEO decided to increase its price.  Finally...took him long enough  |
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Is that what you are going to do when your 20 BTC are worth $200 million.. ? Maybe 10 years, but maybe longer than that? Gosh can we expect to live until we are 85 years old? Hopefully we can spend some of it along the way... and we might not need to accumulate that much.. I mean it might be o.k. to just start to draw from your bitcoin when your stash is around $2million to $10 million rather than waiting until it is worth $200 million.. at least seems to me. There seem to be pretty solid strategies that any of us should be able to employ in order to not worry about drawing from our BTC along the way and still be able to continue to allow our BTC to grow too.... Yeah...maybe. Sounds like an interesting goal to pursue. |
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1993- world wide web became royalty-free (thanks to CERN's decision, btw)
1994-Yahoo and Amazon started
1998-Google search
Conclusion: apps developed pretty fast
2009-bitcoin started
2017-first lightning tx
Nothing else in the app layer really.
I am not criticizing and I know of all fight that we had to go through, but apart from lightning, I don't see much development in such apps, albeit 13 years had passed.
Tl;Dr it is not the same and, imho, we should focus on what bitcoin does best (trustless value transfer and a store of value).
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Imagine being asleep since Dec 10 2017 (5 years minus less than 60 days). The price is almost identical. That probably was the LEAST expected outcome back then, right? No one was predicting it. My point is that we have NO idea where the price would be in another 5 years. Another 19184? That would be crazy. Hoping for a 500K per btc. To me, this story is inspiring: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-musician-retired-after-making-170-million-in-the-stock-market-now-hes-sharing-his-secrets-11666293074TL;DR Musician on a relatively modest salary makes a lot on investments (over 40 years), now he is old and sick at 85 (started investing in his 40ies), but donated more than $105 mil to clinics, universities, schools, etc. |
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Interesting... TL;DR 1. There will be high nominal growth rates caused by capex and re-industrialization. Government-directed investment and credit guarantees would proliferate (EU especially). 2. Wages will rise. 3. Don't invest much in bonds as bond yields might become controlled (bonds yeilds will be below nominal growth). 4. Homeshoring and/or friendshoring. 5. It will continue for 15-20 years and then we would have real stagflation aka 70ies. 6. Due to nominal GDP growth, debt to GDP will decline. 7. Thinks that main areas of investment will include moving production back from China, energy, defense, climate change and inequality [not sure where is investment there?]. Therefore, it's mainly a capex boom. |
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A decent movie I saw last week at home was The Outfit with Mark Rylance. Worth a watch if you like the sort of Alfred Hitchcock stuff.
Interestingly, I also watched it last night, very nice acting and NO 'special effects' for a change. I liked Mark Rylance acting in the Wolf Hall show where he brilliantly plays Thomas Cromwell (chief minister for Henry VIII), from 1520-30ies. |
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I have no idea why there has been a tremendous influx of pompous, loud-mouthed newbies, but can I assume that Bitcointalk's new-registration activity itself is a good metric for how Bitcoin adoption is doing?
Even our little island has been invaded... with some bizarre posts, no less  half of the time I don't even get the main idea or direction. say, maybe it is being used as a training platform for various AI-lites? I had that feeling before, but was wrong back then, perhaps. |
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6mil in 2026? Too soon, bro...it would mean some kind of a hyperinflation incident.
Not a good vibe...1/10 of it at 600K...this could happen "naturally" without a big mac costing $50.
Still, my cash (good ol' money market in the ret account) had positive return this year while bitcoin, SP500, gold, bonds, ALL cratered.
I have that mm account to counteract bitcoin volatility..and this year it truly worked.
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Anybody here tried recently to sell some RE? I would like to hear a story if you have something to tell. With mortgage interest rates at a 'shocking' 7% about a year after less than 3% there has to be some major slowdown (at least). Will prices also drop? I would expect so, but inflation might prop them up a bit, paradoxically. EDIT: apparently, I spent 4 mo of my life on btctalk....gawd...I blame it on not logging out |
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What you fellas think about tomorrow?
If inflation is up less than expected, then markets would start pricing in earlier pivot and, perhaps, just 50bp rise at the next meeting.
If inflation perked up (less likely, imho, since gas prices are not increasing), the we might jerk down.
Place your bets.
It might go up, or down, or go sideways tomorrow. sorry, that prediction is not playable, |
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What you fellas think about tomorrow? If inflation is up less than expected, then markets would start pricing in earlier pivot and, perhaps, just 50bp rise at the next meeting. If inflation perked up (less likely, imho, since gas prices are not increasing), the we might jerk down. Place your bets. Philosophically, if time is an illusion and everything that is going to happen already happened (in the block universe theory, see https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-09-02/block-universe-theory-time-past-present-future-travel/10178386 ), then bitcoin's success either happened or not happened. Let's hope for the former. As a side note, it seems that this universe is devoid of advanced civilizations...perhaps an indication that some "things" did not happen...would be sad, really. Still, there is a chance that those "things" did not happen so far, but would happen eventually...we have less a billion years on Earth (would have to move to a planet around a K-type star), then in 4 bil years a collision with Andromeda (dramatic skies). A story here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wd0AYx8j0Uand https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R12DMYoYWFw |
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The world is shocked by Elon's betrayal of Ukraine. Refusing Starlink in Crimea for the Ukrainians, accepting occupied territories as russian, etc. Honey Badger says to the shocked peeps: hold my beer! The same betrayal Elond tried to do to the Honey Badger. But he failed miserably gaining only laughs for his total lack of knowledge and understanding how Bitcoin works. The damage to shitcoiners however was severe. Nonetheless Elon rejoiced on the news of desperation and suicides because of his tweets. Now he is happy with the videos of killed women and children and wants this to continue. The power to influence people to their death is intoxicating for those with broken concsience like our asperger guy.
This is how asperger morons behave: first they pledge their friendship to you. And after they are convinced you trust them, they enjoy stabbing your back by robbing everything from you. But this is a textbook rule. They are mentally damaged people. They have feelings opposite the normal people have. It is like the cleptomania - they know their weakness and still continue doing it even to their closest friends and family. But since the bipolar aspergers have good mechanical memory, the world sees them as intelligent people and makes the mistake of forgiving them everything. So it is definitely a shocker for the most people to understand that someone can be a successful businessman/scientist/artist, etc. and at the same time to have the moral of Putler. So no wonder Putler and Elon became besties.
I strongly disagree. Elon is not a "typical Asperger's representative", and Asperger's isn't even just a "disorder", it's a spectrum of neurological differencies combined with genetic factors, compared to the neurotypical society (who are commonly called the "normies", or "NT's"). Asperger's Syndrome was erased from the ICD, and added to the ASD (Autistic Spectrum Disorder). Well, i can say Elon is a moron for sure, and i doubt his ASD is the root cause. I don't even credit you any deeper knowledge about Autism, based on the rubbish you let off in the quoted post. Elon's problem is self-righteousness. My wife is working with "low functional" ASD people since many years, i know quite a lot about ASD and Asperger's and in this same sentence i decided to finally come out revealing my high functional ASD diagnosis to you all. I was thinking a lot of times about mentioning it here, at the same time i knew how polarizing and misunderstood this particular range of disorders still is (thanks to "Rain Man", Thunberg, Elon and more). The core fact is, if you are willing to learn: You can't compare any two individuals having ASD. They're all different, and your comparative rant is just bullshit. Elon is an egoistic fuckhead, but something like an asperger moron is inexistant in high functional ASD individuals. It's your (neurotypical) urge to simplify which gave birth to the prejudiced assumption "all Asperger's are the same". Albert Einstein was an asperger moron, too  Last not least, replying to your bullshit post made me feel a little better. Thanks for the opportunity  Asperger "moron" is a misnomer...all people with Asperger I know are highly intelligent, some are with social quirks which makes them interesting. Lately, I observe a lot of name calling on this thread and board as a whole. It's possibly someone's prerogative to say these things, but the "silence of the crowd" does not indicate acceptance on the part of the readers. Au contraire. |
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Observing $19,433 & twiddling my thumbs during an expected, long term boring crab market. I wish bitcoin would break up hard or even in the opposite direction so I can gobble up loads of cheap coins (obviously preference is up). It’s just, the current price does nothing for any of us. There is no way I am selling a single satoshi at this price. I have bought a big % of what I sold in 2021 back already but I am sitting on a pile of fiat now, unwilling to buy more. It either dumps to make me buy more or I keep that fiat. So any way yeah, just willing bitcoin to do SOMETHING so I can do something positive Feels like we’ve been stuck between $18,000 & $23,500 for ages. This is not unexpected though, the way it should go if we are repeating past cycles is, one more dump, an awful capitulation to about $12,000 to $14,000 which causes suicidal thoughts & more mindrust’s. Mainstream media says it’s over, everybody thinks we’re going to $0. This is what forms cycle bottoms, could happen between now & mid 2023. Then we start to slowly climb up, maybe reach the halving in mid 2024 at $30,000 to $40,000. Still boring but with a slight upwards trajectory we plod to the end of 2024. 2025 comes & we start to break upwards, memes & green dildos everywhere we see a new ATH. Couple of pullbacks mid 2025 but then we power to over $150,000 by the end of 2025 as the cycle top & then the cycle starts all over again.Are you ready?  Yeah, this seems like a consensus for most...which makes it unlikely to happen. Personally, I see two other possibilities, depending on overall macro: 1. More likely time-wise (Scenario 1): Despite their current pronouncements, Fed is going to pivot at the end of 2022 or by the end of Q1 2023 and this would mark the start of the bull in bitcoin. From what price? Unknowable, but your numbers are certainly possible. If this happens as described, we should go close to max long by April 2023 and stay there. 2. Scenario 2: dark times. It's hard to discuss it, but if macro will turn depression-like, bitcoin would (at least initially) turn sideways and/or down and the price could become highly volatile and, basically, random. In this scenario, we are in 2007 and the main volatility is ahead. Yes, BOE made some moves and bought itself time, but as we know from 2007, these "small" moves only work for a limited time duration (the rescue of Countrywide in US in the summer of 2007 did not prevent Bear Stearns and Lehman 6-10 mo later). My allocation of probability to this scenario is still less than 20%, but is rising, unfortunately. In this scenario, the bottom is unpredictable, but once everyone start printing en masse and implement yield control, bitcoin should revitalize and go to ATH, eventually. |
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@jjg...naah, I am in a good mood today-weather is finally cooperating and I decided to ignore the larger world and be philosophical, but not ignorant, about it.
That said...your 0.31 BTc or 0.63 BTc is not likely to be a 'proper' disclosure either, lol, considering that you are at it since 2013 and had 20 years of investing experience beforehand, allegedly. That's OK, though, you have what you have, mostly "hot" as a pancake, not "moldy", right?
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