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2041  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou Boxing October 28 on: November 08, 2023, 08:17:48 PM
So it turns out that if one boxer threw 100 punches and the other zero, but was able to stay on his feet, then the score will only be 10-9 in favor of the first boxer?

Depends. As far as I know a round could be scored 10-8 even if there was no knock-down, if one of the fighters was totally dominating and dealing a lot of damage and if it was a one-sided performance and/or the other fighter was clearly saved by the bell from getting KOed.
Looking only at the number of punches landed could turn boxing into some bizzare match when boxers are focussed on touching the opponent with large volume of zero-power punches just so they could "land" it.
We have this score systems for a reason, even if sometimes it seems unfair.

Yep, i got the point. In general, I initially understood this, but this does not mean that I agree with it so wanted to discuss it. For me this is illogical and opens up scope for manipulation. It would be strange if in football the score in the first half was 3-0 and the score in the second half was 0-1 and the final score was the same, but in boxing this is possible. And I also know that all judges interpret body blows differently, not all consider them to be “real” blows.
2042  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: November 08, 2023, 04:14:15 PM
Newcastle need to learn how to play in Europe, I think they are sound in the English premier league but in Europe they are still trying to find their play.
Newcastle against Dortmund yesterday was a very poor performance from Newcastle especially in the first half, and Dortmund is not in the best form.
I think Newcastle were playing too safe and it worked against them, second half was a bit better but still it was poor compared to what they can do, they have now made it very difficult for themselves to qualify from the group.

Newcastle have three strong opponents in the group and I think their result is not that bad. They still have a chance to even win first place, so it’s too early to say that they should learn something. In previous seasons, we saw the collapse of clubs in much easier conditions (for example, Barcelona, having only two strong opponents, did not qualify from the group).
2043  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: November 08, 2023, 03:45:59 PM
I have nothing against a style of play that is focused on a minimum win (although it can be very sad if the whole league is involved in this, do you remember the cattenacho in Serie A?) the question is whether this is a sign of style or a sign of a team winning hard and soon will start losing points. Basically, we are accustomed to the leader confidently winning games and some games (against underdogs) being won with a large score.

It is not a problem for Nice who do not have high productivity in scoring goals because, at the same time, Nice also has a good defensive line. Thus, at least Nice has good gameplay too, because that kind of balance is of course still good for the team. Also, if so far Nice is only lucky, then of course Nice will experience failure as well as losing. But the fact is not, because so far this season Nice is the only team that has not been defeated in Ligue 1 and also, Nice is the team that has conceded the fewest goals so far in Ligue 1. With results like that, I am not sure that Nice is just lucky prolonged. Because I think luck only happens for a few moments and not for a long time.

At least the bookmakers take this long-term result into account and rate Nice as favorites in the battle for second place:

Paris Saint Germain 1.17

Nice 9.00

As Monaco Fc 15.00

Lille 26.00

As I already wrote, I don’t understand Ligue 1 much, and in general I am inclined to agree with the bookmakers, however, given the anomalous results of Nice and the suspicious (for me) goal difference, I would consider betting against them (as an expectation of reversion to the mean). And if you bet on the exact score, it should obviously be 0-1.
2044  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: November 08, 2023, 03:36:07 PM
Almost the entire first half of the season, even when Bayern was slipping and lagging behind the leaders, its quotes did not change - they were favorites with a +- that coefficient. I remember this well because I wrote all the time that it was unfair and even disrespectful to other clubs.
If this is the best season in Bayer's history and Xabi Alonso really leads the club to the title, it will be legendary. Dortmund, by the way, was close to this last year, because before the World Cup break they were already excluded from the race, but then they were able to become leaders.

I see, I haven't really been paying attention to their odds as I usually never consider them for bets, but this seems to be a bet that could be built into a multi bet or something although for a multi bet there is always the time factor. I guess only high stakes players would be willing to wait for a 1.25 to be paid at out at the end of the season.
~

Some people like to keep money in banks, and as far as I know in most rich civilized countries the bank interest rate is ridiculous (1-5%). Therefore, even a bet on Bavaria with a profit of 6% looks like maximizing profits (including due to the fact that here you have to wait less than a year). But I would like to see the emotions of those people who made a “safe” bet last season, then mentally said goodbye to the money, and then got it back again because of the damn losers from Dortmund  Grin
2045  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🏆Rollbit.com | Champions League Pool | $11,000+ in Prizes ⚽️ Discussion Thread on: November 08, 2023, 03:24:23 PM
People, please welcome the latest bastard of UCL: Hhampuz who bet all-in on Shakhtar Donetsk, his haul of 95 points thereby topping the table. Well bloody done.
~

I was sure that Barcelona would lose points, so I also chose between a Shakhtar victory and a draw. As you can see, I also went all in, but I bet on a draw (I didn’t think that four Barcelona would be so bad).
Xavi continues to be extremely bad in European competitions (only 35% of victories), and by the way, given this defeat, the likelihood that Barcelona will not reach the 1/8 for the third time in a row is small, but still exists.
2046  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [banned mixer] 🦁 Fantasy Premier League Pool ⚽ Discussion Thread on: November 08, 2023, 03:18:14 PM
I’m probably out of the any race there is here, my team keep getting injury plagued after every fortnight of either double transfers or even after multiple points hit.

I was finally glad to be rid of Haaland after the injury scare and wasted captaincy, just to find out I’m just being victim of Guardiola’s roulette and mind games yet again!

As we saw in this thread, someone was so lucky that they scored 170 points with the “average” lineup. If you take a chance and are lucky, then such a number of points will definitely return you to the race (if not immediately to first place). There are already 27 rounds ahead and it seems to me that literally every participant has a chance.
2047  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Europa League 2023/24 Season on: November 07, 2023, 05:18:38 PM
Right now, Roma with Jose Mourinho are the serious side at treating Europa League games, because they see this competition as the most possible way for them to get a trophy. against Slavia Prague, Roma will go on full force to win the game because they want to guarantee their spot in Round of 16, so they can focus to progress their position in the league.

For me, Roma are the most favorite side to win UEL Trophy. They may be not stronger than Liverpool, they have more desire in this competition than Liverpool have, because Liverpool dont see this competition as their priority.

Taking first place in the group stage is important, first of all, to avoid two extra games with teams from the Champions League which will qualify for the play-offs from third place. In addition, we know that there will be very strong clubs there (for example, someone from group F). Therefore, I also think that Roma will win the second game with Slavia and guarantee itself first place two rounds before the end of the group stage.
2048  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: November 07, 2023, 05:01:20 PM
Losing two points in a game with a club that is hanging in the relegation zone is a disaster and there is nothing to be happy about and one point gained cannot be any consolation since there should have been 3. Liverpool is already 3 points behind City (and potentially 5 behind Tottenham) and this is a gigantic gap since in order to catch up with City they need to win a head-to-head match, and a defeat in a head-to-head match will be equal to losing the race since the distance turns into 6 points .
That's right, I even thought this would be a landslide victory for Liverpool but it seems like they were having trouble from the first minute. Against a weak team like Luton Town it shouldn't be something that will bother them from getting 3 points but this time it looks like Liverpool have lost their usual performance. In fact, Liverpool had to fall behind first and fortunately Luiz Diaz was the savior in this match with the goal he scored in injury time. Both teams scored late goals and Liverpool almost lost this match. I'm still surprised by Darwin Nunez when he had an 80% chance of scoring a goal but he failed to do it. With this difference, it seems quite difficult for Liverpool to be able to shift these two teams.

Yes, the game was not over yet and memes about Nunez’s miss had already appeared in all football communities. Unfortunately, in addition to this result, Tottenham also lost and now the standings look bleak again. Chelsea won a spectacular victory and if you take away the previous one result (haha) they already have a good series of games, but at the same time they are still in 10th place   Grin
2049  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: French Soccer League Predictions and Discussion Thread (Ligue 1) on: November 07, 2023, 04:50:19 PM
I haven’t seen how Nice plays, but from the outside, their results look like prolonged luck that could be interrupted at any moment. In 11 games, they scored 13 goals and missed 4. Such efficiency in defense is impressive, but the attack is very weak if we are talking about a team that aspires to something. But they have three games ahead of them against teams from the middle/bottom of the standings, so they will be able to maintain their minimal advantage over PSG for some time.
As long as nice can still score to win the game is more than enough. Nice doesn't need to have strong attackers. The club needs only to make sure its opponents would not able to concede the goals against nice. Winning a with narrow score like 1-0 is not a problem as it doesn't matter how many scores being made. Win is a win. It will never change the lose. Nice played with its own style and its' feeling so confidence with it. No doubt that if nice is now is still at the top positions at this moment.
A middle tier team is getting hyped after nice is consistently winning the game. IT's amazing to see nice is joining in the title race right now.

I have nothing against a style of play that is focused on a minimum win (although it can be very sad if the whole league is involved in this, do you remember the cattenacho in Serie A?) the question is whether this is a sign of style or a sign of a team winning hard and soon will start losing points. Basically, we are accustomed to the leader confidently winning games and some games (against underdogs) being won with a large score.
2050  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: November 07, 2023, 04:38:46 PM
If you follow team quotes, you should know that 1.25 is a fairly generous odds for Bayern. Usually, even if they are temporarily not in the lead or even in a full-fledged crisis like last season, their quotes do not deviate much from 1.06 if we are talking about a long distance. I think this is the last opportunity this season to place a bet with such good odds on Bayern.

I gave your considerations some thought and you are probably right. I can't tell if it usually was around 1.06 as you said, was it? Do you mean in the middle of the season when Bayern was already ahead a few points?

But 1.25 is quite high because Leverkusen going to have some weak games soon isn't unlikely. But I guess this is still the but that the bookies include in their calculations. What if Leverkusen plays the best season in their club history? I think it is the consistency that the bookies integrate in their calculations here.

Almost the entire first half of the season, even when Bayern was slipping and lagging behind the leaders, its quotes did not change - they were favorites with a +- that coefficient. I remember this well because I wrote all the time that it was unfair and even disrespectful to other clubs.
If this is the best season in Bayer's history and Xabi Alonso really leads the club to the title, it will be legendary. Dortmund, by the way, was close to this last year, because before the World Cup break they were already excluded from the race, but then they were able to become leaders.
2051  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [banned mixer] 🦁 Fantasy Premier League Pool ⚽ Discussion Thread on: November 07, 2023, 04:28:18 PM
As far as I understand it was in my favor  Cheesy
I don’t really expect to win any prizes in this poll, so I’ve already started thinking about what strategy to come up with to win at least a few yellow caps. And then, quite by accident, I won one right now (by the way, it would be nice if this was officially announced by someone, since I still doubt it haha).
Official congratulations to this GW champion - KTChampions Smiley

Getting 51 points in a GW like this is a real feet, Pope and Archer really helped you there. As I said before, expect 1 mBTC free bet in your account on Monday.

Thank you!
In fact, I really doubted it because, due to problems that I’ve already written about many times, I didn’t even fully understand the functionality of fantasy football, haha. I'm just used to getting an average of about 50 points and seeing the leaders go ahead, but this round I got 51 points and a yellow cap lol.
2052  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: November 07, 2023, 12:43:06 PM
Last time they met, Manchester City scored 3 goals away against Young Boys, this time they can score 5-6 goals with a much easier game at home. We saw what they did to Bournemouth 2 days ago. They could apply a similar tariff to Young Boys. Of course, they are in a very comfortable position after making it 3 out of 3 in the Champions League. There is a serious difference in quality between the teams. I think you can bet on Manchester City over 3.5 goals in this match. I don't think Pep Guardiola will make a serious rotation.

Regardless of whether there will be rotation or not, the level of all City players is significantly higher than the level of Young Boys players. I made a prediction for City to win with a score of 4-0, but it seems to me that even such a prediction may not be “big” enough. It’s one thing to try to resist in a home game with the support of the crowd, and another thing in an away game against a favorite.
2053  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: November 07, 2023, 12:07:21 PM
Unfortunately, Real couldn't win yesterday and now Girona is the sole leader  Grin I’m happy for them, but still, Real Madrid lacks a top striker and this annoys me - they are one step away from ideal and this is even more offensive than if “everything was bad” for them. I don’t think that the balance of power in La Liga has changed in any way because of this draw, but I have become even more confident that Bayern and City are favorites in the Champions League relative to Real Madrid.
Real Madrid was unable to win their game against Rayo Vallecano last weekend while league leaders defeated Osasuna by 4 goals to two on Saturday which now gives Girona a two point gap ahead of Real Madrid in the Spanish La Liga standings.
Like you rightly pointed out, I think Real Madrid's failure to sign a replacement for Karim Benzema last summer is somehow affecting the squad and that's in a day Jude Bellingham who's been the club's top scorer this season couldn't score, there was no one else to score for Los Blancos. Real Madrid though did not win their game last weekend, but I think they're still my favorites to win the Spanish La Liga title this season

In fact, I’m not worried about La Liga at all, since against the backdrop of Barcelona’s problems, Real should win it without any problems (in principle, everything is going that way now), but the main goals of the season for Real are the Champions League. And here it’s difficult to expect victory with such a big hole (with all due respect to Real Madrid’s strikers) in one of the most important positions. And I'm not even talking about games with favorites - it will be difficult to beat even average teams.
2054  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [banned mixer] 🦁 Fantasy Premier League Pool ⚽ Discussion Thread on: November 07, 2023, 12:00:33 PM
Somehow, my best results are always during these low-scoring rounds but I might struggle in the next few weeks as four of my players are in a questionable spot.

Also, I was on pace to win another free bet until things ended unexpectedly in the Tottenham match, pushing me back by a few points.  Tongue

As far as I understand it was in my favor  Cheesy
I don’t really expect to win any prizes in this poll, so I’ve already started thinking about what strategy to come up with to win at least a few yellow caps. And then, quite by accident, I won one right now (by the way, it would be nice if this was officially announced by someone, since I still doubt it haha).
2055  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: November 07, 2023, 11:48:56 AM
If I understand correctly, Mbappe will be able to conduct official (and not secret) negotiations with Real this winter. And I heard Real is ready to sign him (in the summer) only if he signs a preliminary agreement in the winter (a completely reasonable demand after Mbappe has already cheated once). There is no point in a winter transfer since Mbappe has already started playing this season in the Champions League with PSG and therefore he will not be able to play for Real Madrid.

Although I understand that this is the way that has to be considered officially, I am quite sure that any necessary negotiations have been taking place for a long time and I wouldn't be shocked if they are finalized already. Nobody would ever find out or be informed about it. But unless PSG is approaching Mbappe with an offer that has never been seen before, not even in Saudi Arabia, Mbappe will go to Real Madrid next season. Someone here said that Real Madrid doesn't forget and they don't want him anymore because he rejected one offer, but I don't think that is how this will play out.

It is clear that behind-the-scenes negotiations are always going on, but of course it is impossible to prove anything since, for example, Mbappe’s mother and some friend of Perez are not official representatives of the parties, but can communicate with each other. But taking into account these nuances, agreements cannot be finalized since verbal agreements cost approximately nothing (as Mbappe himself showed by deceiving Real).
I don't think Real Madrid have completely given up on Mbappe, but I think there is a possibility that they will replace him with someone else (Haaland) as their transfer target.
2056  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: November 07, 2023, 11:40:57 AM
Maybe they will drop a little lower (Napoli are only one point behind) if they don’t remember how to score goals. I think that they have already dropped out of the championship race - two teams with a good margin ahead, which means the likelihood of overtaking them is extremely small. Their only real goal for the season is to at least take third place in the group stage of the Champions League and qualify for the Europa League.
AC Milan started the Italian Serie A season on a very good note and were even topping the league standings at some point but their recent poor results and performance has made many to question the strength of the team when it comes to challenging for the Italian scudetto this season.
The club manager must as a matter of urgency fix the problem behind the club's recent poor results or settle for just surviving to remain in the top flight next season. Unless there's an improvement, AC Milan might not be finish the season in top four. Napoli who are currently one point behind them are trying to get past the Milan club in the league table

If earlier the defeat to Inter with a crushing score looked unusual compared to how Milan played in other games, now there is enough distance to admit that they are still weak to compete for the title. Milan have made many transfers, but so far Pioli has not been able to assemble a team from players under his leadership - unsatisfactory results were obtained in all serious games. I don’t believe that Milan will fall below 4th place, but they won’t fight for first place either.
2057  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou Boxing October 28 on: November 06, 2023, 01:17:41 PM
Why are we making this discussion complicated? The rules have already been laid out, and based on the explanation, Ngannou would have had to knock down Fury twice in order to score a 10-7 in a specific round. Since that didn't happen, the score only settles on 10-8. What's hard to understand about that?
~

So it turns out that if one boxer threw 100 punches and the other zero, but was able to stay on his feet, then the score will only be 10-9 in favor of the first boxer? I am interested in this question regardless of the Fury-Ngannou fight. I think this rule (if it really works like that) is delusional. This means a fight (let’s imagine a fight of two rounds) where first one boxer took the round with a score of 10-9 (in terms of blows, the score was, for example, 8-5), and then the other boxer with a score of 9-10 (in terms of blows, the score was 0-100) should be considered equal?  Roll Eyes
2058  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Football Transfers Speculation, Odds and Predictions on: November 06, 2023, 01:10:47 PM

I think Real's strategy (after they focused on Mbappe and abandoned Haaland, and he ended up deceiving them) is clear - they want to have a wide range of options and not depend on one player. Therefore, we will continue to see similar statements, plus Real will show interest in other strikers (fake or real) in order not to put themselves in a dependent position on Mbappe. Now Real's position is strong: they have assembled a squad that can dominate in the coming years. In Europe, the only thing missing is a striker who will skim the cream at the club's expense (those who score goals always attract more attention than those who make it possible), and Mbappe has what he has. ? He is getting old and new stars are already appearing that can supplant him, he is fading away at PSG, he won’t go to City because of Haaland, to Bayern because of their economical policy, etc. I don't see any good options for him.
I feel the best option Mbappe has right now has to be to land in Spain but with less than 7 months left on his contract and the feud between him and his club, with no concrete interest from Spain he has no option than to search else where for a club not just to play for the fun, and money but also to gain recognition both locally and internationally and that’s majorly possible whilst he plays in Europe.

In the Spanish Side we’ve got some quality clubs like FC Barcelona, Real Madrid and preferably they’ll be fit for Mbappe’s play style but there’s still quite a lot of time and as the trend goes in the world of football ‘it’s not over till it’s finally over’; let’s see what the future has in stock for the young French Star Kylian Mbappe,  there's possibility that he might still land in Spain probably Realmadrid.

If I understand correctly, Mbappe will be able to conduct official (and not secret) negotiations with Real this winter. And I heard Real is ready to sign him (in the summer) only if he signs a preliminary agreement in the winter (a completely reasonable demand after Mbappe has already cheated once). There is no point in a winter transfer since Mbappe has already started playing this season in the Champions League with PSG and therefore he will not be able to play for Real Madrid.
2059  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: November 06, 2023, 01:03:39 PM
Damn  Grin My prediction came true 100%. The value of this bet was obvious to me, but I didn’t think that it would be realized right away, and now I’m not in the mood to make long-term bets.
Milan played another match without scoring goals and I think we can already cross them out of the contenders for the title. They are in a serious crisis and you shouldn’t expect a comeback from them in the Champions League either.

This could be the end for milan in the title race for scudetto this season. Acmilan is almost losing its good gameplay. Udinese was able making some players of club feel so panic with its counter attack. ACmilan seems to struggle till the end of season.
I have lost my hope for milan. I never bet in this shit again since milan was always losing. Milan never won even a single game in UCL. This is so damn bad for pioli. The protests are starting to come for him.
How long the management to let this shit coach to manage the club? As the tenure of Pioli as coach of Inter Milan continues, the likelihood of achieving poor results for the club increases.
Someone needs to stop this. Acmilan is not the same like last season and this time it's playing even worse than udinese. You may see milan to go down even deeper. What a horrible result from acmilan.

Maybe they will drop a little lower (Napoli are only one point behind) if they don’t remember how to score goals. I think that they have already dropped out of the championship race - two teams with a good margin ahead, which means the likelihood of overtaking them is extremely small. Their only real goal for the season is to at least take third place in the group stage of the Champions League and qualify for the Europa League.
2060  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: November 06, 2023, 12:50:06 PM
Barcelona is constantly balancing on the verge of losing points, and if last season everything ended successfully for them, then this year I would say that this is not “the luck of the champion” but simply a weak game. If we remember all their “accidental” victories, now they could be at the level of Betis. If Real wins today, then despite the unchanged distance between the clubs, I think Real's quotes will increase slightly again.
However even though they won, Barcelona's performance was not that good, and I'm not sure if Barcelona can retain the La Liga title if their performance can't improve and only rely on winning with a bit of luck in every match.
If you control the game and score a goal at the end of the match, maybe we will understand a little and say that it wasn't a lucky win, but that's not the case for Barcelona, in fact they often concede in matches but fortunately the Barcelona goalkeeper played well in this match.
I think even though they won, Barcelona still hasn't changed and they need to immediately recover from their erratic performance.

Unfortunately, Real couldn't win yesterday and now Girona is the sole leader  Grin I’m happy for them, but still, Real Madrid lacks a top striker and this annoys me - they are one step away from ideal and this is even more offensive than if “everything was bad” for them. I don’t think that the balance of power in La Liga has changed in any way because of this draw, but I have become even more confident that Bayern and City are favorites in the Champions League relative to Real Madrid.
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