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1061  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Another question? Tell me your average amount per bet and your monthly income? on: January 14, 2024, 03:14:15 PM
Hello gamblers, this is a kind of survey aimed at getting to know my fellow gamblers better, particularly in the context of sports betting. I would like to know your average bet amount and your monthly income.

You don't need to provide exact figures; an estimate would suffice. Through this discussion, we can assess whether we are being too aggressive in our gambling habits or if we are playing it safe with our bets.

First of all, I won't tell you any numbers  Grin
Secondly, it seems to me that there is no point in information like “my income is a million, but I bet 500k on average.” Not all people live on income, some live on (spend) savings. And income is also a flexible concept - it can be a banal salary or profit from real estate, shares, etc. which is more logical to calculate in an annual format. Plus, all these numbers will have completely different meanings from country to country. It may make sense to compare the percentage of spending on gambling from the monthly budget, but there are also many nuances that will devalue this information.
1062  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Europa League 2023/24 Season on: January 14, 2024, 03:07:21 PM
You're right about Roma's problems with Liverpool and Bayer Leverkusen. These clubs are serious, and Roma's form isn't prime-time ready. The twist: Mourinho. He's a tactical genius who can surprise when it counts. Remember his Roma semi-final run last season? That wasn't luck. His strategic brain works.

I don't like Mourinho's defensive tactics, but they work. Roma needs that now. They must first beat Feyenoord, which isn't guaranteed. Mourinho's leadership makes me feel euphoric and anxious. I'm ready for the wild trip. If they get past Feyenoord, we'll see how they compare to the big guns. Football is unpredictable, but that's its appeal, right?

Mourinho is the one who makes the difference and squeezes the water out of the stone, that's for sure. And it is naive to assume that he can build a galaxy from the usual set of players, so naturally we see mainly defensive tactics and tactical decisions that allow him to beat stronger opponents, even if these decisions are not spectacular.
An additional advantage that Roma has is that Liverpool and Bayer are primarily focused on the title race. Both clubs have a chance, and if Roma meets them not in the final, but in earlier stages, then Roma will have increased chances in my opinion.
1063  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: January 14, 2024, 03:00:53 PM
Yes, this victory is rather an argument in favor of continuing to doubt Napoli. It is noteworthy that the game ended as if Napoli were a completely average Serie A team: Salernitana had scored 16 goals in 19 games before this game (almost one goal per game on average) and conceded 38 goals (exactly two goals per game on average). It turns out that Napoli conceded a little more than they should have (for an average team from Serie A lol) and scored exactly as much as they should. 3 points is better than another loss, but I would call this victory painful.

Yes, that's why. Don't know exactly what the handicap is in this match, but I think people who play handicap betting and choose Napoli lose their bets. Because of the high expectations they have for Napoli. Previously Napoli almost always made a real gap in the score against Salernitana, but this time they were completely different, as their good performance last season was a fluke.

I almost always place handicap bets (I multi-bet and at least half of my picks are handicap bets), but this season Napoli is not suitable for that at all (nor for regular bets haha). There's no point in comparing them to last season's team, they're just two different teams. An eloquent figure: now Napoli has 31 points after 20 rounds, and last season after 20 rounds they had 53 points! 22 points difference!  Shocked
Probably even the cunning Spalletti, who knew for sure that a decline in results was inevitable, did not expect such a monstrous failure.
It’s more profitable to bet now on Napoli’s opponents, I don’t know what will happen next, but now they are just a random average team.
1064  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🌍⚽Sportsbet.io AFCON 2024 prediction pool discussion thread on: January 14, 2024, 02:51:56 PM
just 2-0 for the first game, when I see 1st goal in 5 min, I was pick over 3.5, but, its finshed 2-0, cote d evoir not big team

I’m glad that they stopped on time (I chose 2-0 and getting 3 points for an exact score is always super profitable since it’s pure randomness). In general, it seems to me that teams have no motivation to overexert themselves, regardless of the difference in the class of the teams, especially at the group stage, if victory is already in their pocket. Maybe I'm wrong, but here (among the players) there are no fans who are very concerned about statistics. Plus, if we take into account the previous results in the World Cup qualifying tournament, then I would assess the likelihood of games with a total of more than 3.5 as extremely low.
1065  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 14, 2024, 02:44:43 PM
Important win for Dortmund today as they are back on 5th position and I couldn't hold myself not to laugh when I saw Sancho making an assist in his first game since his return and boy ...now I know for sure he didn't like to play for United and I can't blame him as no one really sane would like to play for United right now.

Also very glad to see Leverkusen taking another victory and another 3 important points for title fight as they still have 4 points difference than Bayern which is pretty amazing.

When Sancho made the assist, there was an avalanche of mockery of Ten Hag on Twitter and forums. For example: Sancho makes a goal pass - Ten Hag punching the air right now  Grin
I hope this is not a one-time success for Sancho and he will continue to delight Dortmund fans. As for Ten Hag, he is now in an even more unpleasant situation than before - it will be quite difficult to justify to the management why a player was bad at United, but good at another club. Plus all this bullying and memes... maybe it will all end with him being fired simply for image reasons. United is a great club (historically) and turning into a circus club is unlikely to be in the plans of the owners.
1066  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: January 14, 2024, 02:36:26 PM
At the moment, bookmaker quotes for the game are as follows:

2.21 - 3.68 - 2.88

In my opinion, this is the easiest bet on Real Madrid. Yes, the teams are playing with suboptimal lineups, yes, this is a cup and the importance of the game is in question (although there is a step to the title and motivation should be maximum), but it seems to me that Real should be the favorite with odds of about 1.8-1.9 maximum. Maybe the status of the game distorts the odds or people are betting on Barcelona for old times' sake and bookmakers are forced to take this into account?

The next Real Madrid versus Barcelona match going to be the Supercopa de España final. And I think it is going to be a very intense game between these two, that's why odd's lookin so close. Both of them are going to be very interested in winning the final. Real Madrid is definitely better than last season. And Barcelona is facing some problems regarding injuries. So I am honestly not very hopeful about Barcelona in this match.  if Barcelona was in better shape, I think we could have given them a chance. But so far, the way things have gone, I have to take the side of Real Madrid in this match.

The game will take place in Riyadh and it seems to me that all games outside of Spain (except for the Champions League of course) have the atmosphere of friendly games, maybe for this reason the chances are close.
I wonder if Ronaldo will attend the game? As a former Real Madrid player and a very popular figure in Saudi Arabia, it will most likely be profitable for him in every sense to be there. And maybe he can talk to the players personally and convince them to move to him.
1067  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: January 14, 2024, 02:19:01 PM
People talking about the game between Fulham and Cheslea and they think Cheslea had a good performance against Fulham because of won the match against this team but that's not right and Cheslea awful performance but was just lucky because even Pochettino the coach of Chelsea said they had lucky enough because their player, Malo Gusto didn't get the red card in this match.



If the referee had looked at the VAR, he would most likely have given a red card - playing with a straight leg and hitting an opponent with spikes is sufficient grounds for this. But for some reason he made the decision without VAR. I agree that if Chelsea had played with ten men from the 38th minute, they would hardly have received 3 points, but if you look at the statistics, even with a full team, the result does not look entirely fair - their advantage over Fulham is very small.
1068  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: January 14, 2024, 02:11:11 PM
I don’t think that the likelihood of such a final is high - firstly, the teams can meet at earlier stages of the tournament, and secondly, they are not favorites. Take a look at the bookmakers' odds on who will reach the final:

Manchester City 1.96

Fc Bayern Munich 2.58

Real Madrid 3.19

Arsenal 3.68

Now the quotes are a little distorted because City have the easiest opponent of all possible and we can say that City are already in the quarter finals, but in any case they are the favorites of the tournament and in order for us to see the final without them, someone has to knock them out. I would like to believe that someone will succeed.

Why's Arsenal on this list? They're not the side to leave there,I'd rather want to see Paris Saint Germans.

Real Madrid with that odd because they have no good enough striker. They're still my favorites to win regardless.

Bayern Munich are good I just double doubt the impact Thomas Tuchel can bring Into Bayern Munich and the players,  Manchester City yet again Buzzing with the return of Kevin De Bruyne back. He's already made a great impact right now in this game. They have a very good chance of defending but I won't support until they do win.

Arsenal are in the top group of the Premier League and they are consistently good. Who are PSG? At the moment, this can be said to be a new team and even if there is a top player Mbappe, but this team always suffers from low competition in Ligue 1. There are rumors that PSG will loan Benzema until the end of the season, but Benzema is a striker and with this PSG has no problems, so he is unlikely to seriously strengthen the team. In general, Arsenal are naturally higher than PSG - they are better in all respects.
1069  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: January 13, 2024, 08:37:05 PM
Kevin De Bruyne contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 35 touches during his 21 minutes of play.
The best player in this match should be Kevin De Bruyne but Bruyne lost in the number of minutes played with Rodri who played the full game.

Manchester City achieved 3 consecutive wins after this match. Newcastle United experienced 4 consecutive defeats in the Premier League after this match.
In January, I think there will be new information regarding Eddie Howe's future. Newcastle United officials want the best results this season.

Yes, this player makes a difference. Damn, I was hoping that City would lose points today (especially with the score 2-1 in favor of Newcastle) but it all ended in great disappointment for me. If Liverpool makes a mistake in the next rounds, we will quickly return to a situation where bookmakers estimate the probability of the title for City as 1.1  Undecided
Newcastle's fall is terrible - already 10 defeats and they are lower than Chelsea and United. Against the backdrop of a great start (it seems that this was a record-breaking good strat for them), such a fall looks even more tragic.
1070  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: January 13, 2024, 06:04:28 PM
I think the final match will be Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich. City is indeed very strong in the Champions League and they are also the defending champions. De Bruyne's injury had a big impact on City's game and we know last season they won the treble with a big role from KDB and Haaland. So I favor Madrid vs Munich which will be the final match. I put City in third place and Barcelona in fourth place. I think everyone should not forget Barcelona because they are also one of the strong teams in the Champions League even though their current performance does not make them one of the favorites to win this season.

I don’t think that the likelihood of such a final is high - firstly, the teams can meet at earlier stages of the tournament, and secondly, they are not favorites. Take a look at the bookmakers' odds on who will reach the final:

Manchester City 1.96

Fc Bayern Munich 2.58

Real Madrid 3.19

Arsenal 3.68

Now the quotes are a little distorted because City have the easiest opponent of all possible and we can say that City are already in the quarter finals, but in any case they are the favorites of the tournament and in order for us to see the final without them, someone has to knock them out. I would like to believe that someone will succeed.
1071  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: January 13, 2024, 05:48:33 PM
I am looking forward to the next El Clasico. Real Madrid is stronger than last year, and it will be more challenging for Xavi and his squad. The two clubs are extra motivated for the rivalry, and it is for the Super Cup championship. They will without a doubt give all that to bring home the championship.

The injury of Raphinha is a significant issue for Barcelona and Xavi will make essential changes. The fans are also mused on how Lamine Yamal will be used in the approaching match. The young kid showed his exceptional talent and scored in their victory over Osasuna.

At the moment, bookmaker quotes for the game are as follows:

2.21 - 3.68 - 2.88

In my opinion, this is the easiest bet on Real Madrid. Yes, the teams are playing with suboptimal lineups, yes, this is a cup and the importance of the game is in question (although there is a step to the title and motivation should be maximum), but it seems to me that Real should be the favorite with odds of about 1.8-1.9 maximum. Maybe the status of the game distorts the odds or people are betting on Barcelona for old times' sake and bookmakers are forced to take this into account?
1072  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 13, 2024, 05:33:16 PM
Bayer still won (in the 4th added minute), but it seems that Xabi has not yet figured out how to replace Boniface. Just look at the statistics:

Shots - 2:25
Shots on target - 0:6
Corners - 0:12

This is complete dominance (+ 66% ball possession), but the implementation of the advantage is extremely weak. In the next round, Bayer is playing away at Leipzig and I think there will be fewer opportunities to score there, and the fact that even Eintracht was able to win there today does not mean that Bayer will be able to repeat this.

Leipzig lost in their home but if you analyse the statistics like you did above, you will see that Leipzig totally dominated the game with 64% dominance, 31 shots including 8 on target versus only 5 shots including one on target for Frankfurt. For the corners, we are talking about 15 for Leipzig and 8 for Frankfurt.
As you see this doesn't mean big things when the opponent with worst statistics, could use a good opportunity to score while the other team which dominated the game just continue to miss it.
Next game between Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen will be close and if you look to the statistics, you will see clearly that Leipzig are favourite so far, even though the odds are close.
The results until now kept Bayer Leverkusen in top followed by Bayern Munich and the gap is getting wider with Leipzig until we see if Stuttgart could win, most likely, against M'Gladbach tomorrow.

Such a distortion in statistics (and the victory of a team that is statistically worse) is a normal thing if one team plays bus and catches its chances on contact attacks. I don’t think that in the Leipzig - Bayer game anyone will play the bus, so the total number of chances is no less important than their conversion. Bayer has obvious problems with conversion.
Now about the odds:

2.43 - 3.48 - 2.69

Maybe the bookmakers took into account all the factors and Leipzig is a fair favorite, but for me it looks unfair. What kind of nonsense is this - one team collected 45 points out of 51, and the other only 33, and the goal difference is +35 versus +20, but the statistically weaker team is the favorite. I understand that Bayer's phenomenal series cannot be endless, but these quotes are unfair.
1073  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 🌍⚽Sportsbet.io AFCON 2024 prediction pool discussion thread on: January 13, 2024, 05:14:36 PM
It seems like nothing shocking, just normal safety requirements? As you know, these lasers can damage the retina of the eye even from such a distance, there are many videos on YouTube where the beam of such lasers bursts balloons lined up in a row.
I wonder if vuvuzelas will be banned? It seems that if you look at the map, Cote Divoire is located far from South Africa, but maybe these things are also popular there.

It's a good development from the AFCON committee but I'm still waiting for the CAF to take the same action against lasers in our league games.

vuvuzelas was banned after the 2010 worldcup.

Yep, I remember this, but Blatter then (if I’m not mistaken, this swindler was still in business) put it in the sense that “vuvuzelas should stay in Africa.” Therefore, I don’t remember that they were banned everywhere, but if this is already the case, then I’m glad.

Good news everybody Smiley

Should be at least 20 of this season. Already collected money from 18, 2 I am quite sure it is just a matter of hours and then I have some more stranglers from my Sportsbet chat that are interested to join.

I will still allow people to join during first GW, with the start of GW2 pool will be officially closed. Detailed rewards will be written out at that moment. It will be similar spread as in my La Liga and Serie A pools (percentage wise).

Anyway it all starts today so make your picks and good luck, not that you need it.

bloody lucky bastards every one of you


20 participants are already in the pool, super! I was sure that we would collect the required amount.

Is anyone surprised by the bookmakers' odds on BTTS? Mostly they are seriously higher than 2 - in some cases almost close to 3. If you make a money bet, then such cases always attract me.
1074  Local / Майнеры / Re: Глобальные новости крипто-майнинга on: January 13, 2024, 04:53:22 PM
про разгоны всякие вот подумалось. я, наверное, старомодный, но в крипте, когда захожу в любой проект, у меня первая задача вывести депо. а вот потом уже можно извращаться по полной.
и я буду лить в стакан, пока не отобью фермы, выводить дропы по текущему, продавать нфт по рынку и тыды. пока не отобью первоначалку. сейчас проще намного, конечно. уже со всех сторон всё отбито и можно ради красивых цифирок в 50-100% прибыли рискнуть и просрать тысчонку другую уев, вряд ли больше.

Аналогично (и не только в крипте кстати). Для меня есть деньги "свои" и "игровые". Когда я свои вернул, задача-минимум выполнена, а к игровым у меня отношение легкое - пока не вывел это все фантики, а не деньги. Поэтому распоряжаюсь ими легко и нет психологического давления которое бы мешало рисковать в тех случаях когда рисковать стоит.
1075  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 13, 2024, 04:48:55 PM
Bayer still won (in the 4th added minute), but it seems that Xabi has not yet figured out how to replace Boniface. Just look at the statistics:

Shots - 2:25
Shots on target - 0:6
Corners - 0:12

This is complete dominance (+ 66% ball possession), but the implementation of the advantage is extremely weak. In the next round, Bayer is playing away at Leipzig and I think there will be fewer opportunities to score there, and the fact that even Eintracht was able to win there today does not mean that Bayer will be able to repeat this.
1076  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2023/2024 on: January 13, 2024, 04:32:21 PM
Congratulations to everyone for winning zero points in Superberu today  Grin
Sevilla team and all players should be ashamed for this year performance!
Another loss at home against Alaves, just when I expected they will somehow manage to win.

1 point to 18th place  Grin
Taking into account the fact that Cadiz and Celta have quite ordinary opponents, Seville may find themselves in the relegation zone today (more precisely, tomorrow since Cadiz plays tomorrow). Not a bad way for the reigning Europa League champions  Roll Eyes


By the way, will this short tour be considered completed tomorrow or when all the games are played?
1077  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: January 13, 2024, 04:19:44 PM
The match was over and Napoli won with a small score. We could say this match was quite dramatic because Napoli's 2 goals were scored at the end of the first and second half. Even though Napoli won, I'm not satisfied with their performance, they only managed to win by a small margin even when facing a team that's at the bottom of the Serie A standings.

With the results obtained by Napoli today, they're currently in 6th place in the standings. They're not the only team that has performed poorly this season, because we still have Lazio & AS Roma below them.

Yes, this victory is rather an argument in favor of continuing to doubt Napoli. It is noteworthy that the game ended as if Napoli were a completely average Serie A team: Salernitana had scored 16 goals in 19 games before this game (almost one goal per game on average) and conceded 38 goals (exactly two goals per game on average). It turns out that Napoli conceded a little more than they should have (for an average team from Serie A lol) and scored exactly as much as they should. 3 points is better than another loss, but I would call this victory painful.
1078  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Europa League 2023/24 Season on: January 13, 2024, 04:12:39 PM
From the bookmakers' point of view, Roma's odds are as follows:

Liverpool 3.19

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 6.37

Ac Milan 10.78

Brighton And Hove Albion 12.74

West Ham United 12.74

As Roma 16.66

In my opinion, it’s strange that they are rated worse than West Ham or Brighton. However, the favorites' chances are also not so great - Liverpool have about 30% and Bayer 15%. Let's look at what pairings we get in the 1/8 - this can greatly change the teams' chances, for example, if Liverpool gets Milan as opponents, and Roma gets Rangers (as I understand this pairing is possible), then the quotes will become more even.

I agree with you on that definitely. I was also surprised very much to see Roma being shown as less favourite than those 2 teams. I just say why? Above all else we shouldn't forget Roma's reaching the final round of the Europa League last season. They fought well against Sevilla too even though they couldn't become champions.

Now they still look strong in the Europa League. They have a tough draw on paper in this round maybe but they should be able to eliminate Feyenoord anyway and move on.

I think they can push West Ham and Brighton both out of the competition too and even Milan also. Therefore I would rather put Roma right behind Leverkusen at worst when it comes to odds.

There may be such an imbalance in the odds due to the fact that bookmakers take into account that West Ham and Brighton are already in the 1/8 finals, and to get there, Roma needs to play a knockout match with Feyenoord. Feyenoord is not the easiest opponent, but still I see Roma as the favorite in this pair (most likely Mourinho will simply strangle this bright attacking team with his rational defensive game haha), let's see how the odds change after these qualifying games (how this whole multi-level system infuriates me).
1079  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 13, 2024, 04:04:22 PM
Augsburg  vs  Leverkusen

Leverkusen's players are fighting hard today against Augsburg. Neither team could score in 40 minutes. However, Leverkusen's players are trying to dominate the match. Maybe in the second half they will increase the pace of attack.

After 40 minutes, Leverkusen had 75% of the ball and had 6 shots on goal. Despite several strong attacks, Augsburg's players and goalkeepers parried every attack. Augsburg's players will probably be happy with the draw. However, if they want to keep the top spot in the points table, the Leverkusen team must gain 3 points.

It's already the 70th minute of the match and the score is still 0-0. It will be interesting to see the statistics on expected goals after the game. It feels like even Augsburg “earned” one goal, and Bayer at least two. I hope that in the remaining 20 minutes Bayer can tip the scales in their favor, I would really like them to tease Bayern with their leadership for as long as possible  Grin
1080  Local / Юристы / Re: Судебная практика по криптовалютам on: January 13, 2024, 03:20:27 PM

При всем уважении, но вряд ли здесь кто-то прям будет зачитываться целой диссертацией (особенно вот этим музыкальным казенным языком пример которого в новости ниже), вы бы выжимку какую-то сделали что ли. Там же есть какие-то итоги/выводы? Ознакомиться с ними было бы интересно а может быть даже полезно.
Выводы там, во основном, либо спорные, либо пустые. Интересен сам дискурс: упоминания судебных решений, их оценка, отсылки к другим работам по смежным темам. В общем, по мелочи можно очень много всякого занимательного нахватать. А итоги нет смысла перепечатывать. Они там в заключении есть, а во введении даже в ещё более сжатом виде: как тезисы, выносимые на защиту.

Но, повторюсь, в плане итогов диссертация, пожалуй, бессмсленная. Её основная ценность, на мой взгляд, - в собранном материале. В этом смысле работа достойна внимания. Однако таких интересных частностей там слишком много: выжимку я сделать не возьмусь.

Ну вот мне сразу так подумалось. У нас же право не прецедентное так что смысла смотреть, что было где-то, нет, так как в новом случае все может быть ровно наоборот. Я подборочку разной уголовщины смотрю в неокторых ТГ каналах и там все это хорошо видно: для людей определенной категории закон работает так, а для других иначе  Grin Да и вообще если честно рассуждения о законе в папуасиях это так... теоретический треп, не более.
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