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1041  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 16, 2024, 02:22:24 PM
Leverkusen has some problems at the moment. They have to do without players who are injured (as you pointed out). And they also have to do without 3 players who are playing in the Africa Cup. Leverkusen have to compensate that and it will not be easy.
Regarding to the game against Leipzig, for me Leverkusen is the favorite. The performance from Leipzig has been rather mixed and not many people expected them to lose against Frankfurt in theier last game.

Bookmakers see this game as completely random:

2.45 - 3.48 - 2.69

Apparently they take into account Bayer's losses, otherwise it is impossible to explain why the leader has such low chances. There are still 4 days before the game and if the odds begin to change sharply (at least by 0.15) in favor of one of the teams, then most likely it will make sense to bet on it. I noticed this pattern a long time ago and in fact, such a seemingly insignificant change in quotes means a lot.
1042  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: January 16, 2024, 02:03:02 PM
I think one of the three teams you've mentioned above (City, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich) will be champions, of course City are the defending champions (having won the CL for the first time last season), and they'll want to defend their title. The thing i love most about City is their lack of complacency, they always want success every season, notwithstanding whatsoever they achieved the previous season.

City beat Bayern (in the QF) and Real Madrid (in the SF) on their way to the trophy last season, and if they meet either team in this knockout stage, it would be pretty tough and there would be a sense of revenge. It would be interesting to see how things pan out.

Doesn't this apply to Real Madrid or Bayern? Bayern wins the Bundesliga every year and for them this is a routine/norm that they cannot fall below and every year they want to win the Champions League. Real won the Champions League three times in a row and 4 times in 5 years. It is difficult to imagine that at some point they will say “perhaps we have enough.” Each top team strives to win all tournaments in which it participates. As for personal meetings between them, I hope that City will be knocked out earlier and there simply won’t be any  Grin
1043  Local / Oбcyждeниe Bitcoin / Re: «Грязные» биткойны on: January 16, 2024, 01:28:54 PM
Отсюда имеем потребность вольных людей иметь справку что они биток не украли, не отмыли а честно приобрели... вот собственно это понятие и введено.

Если есть доверие к системе, то большинство криптанов прекрасно сможет подтвердить все свои транзакции и источники, потому что всё прозрачно, всё хранится вечно, и ото всего есть ключики.~

Ага, конечно. Ну вот получили вы три года назад 0,1 битка за какой-нибудь набор шмота в игре Х от пользователя в дискорд канале.
Расскажите как вы это сможете обосновать? И чем ваше "обоснование" будет отличаться от рассказов какого-нибудь отмывщика который тоже получил битки за якобы продажу виртуального барахла незнакомому анониму?

Или вот другой пример: Ратимов  Grin у которого были персональные контракты на подпись, что он скажет полиции/налоговой полиции? "Ну типа у меня был крутой акк на форуме (правда сейчас доступа нет и следов почти нет, мне там деньги платил проект такой-то (проекта уже тоже нет) за то что я их баннер носил. Пруфов не будет Подтвердить ничем не могу ну вы там погуглите или вот спросите людей (анонимные акки в мессенджерах)".
Неплохо выглядит да? Все сразу поверят  Grin

Проблема же не на стороне добросовестных криптанов, проблема на тех, кто начинает докапываться формально и требовать избыточных данных, когда это вовсе не является необходимым.

К сожалению ваше мнение не учитывается. Не вы решаете что необходимо и что избыточно. И даже то что вы считает каких-либо криптанов добросовестными не означает что их будут таковыми считать регуляторы.
Я ж уже выше писал принцип: вы (или любой другой пользователь битка) от Лазаруса вообще ничеми не отличаетесь пока не доказали обратного (КУЦ + налоги).

Когда невесть кто получает право требовать избыточных данных и решать, хочет ли он разрешать пользоваться твоими же деньгами, мне для этого и чисто фиатной системы хватает, спасибо!

Этот невесть кто может вас в тюрьму посадить, вот если бы не эта маленькая неприятность то и говорить было бы не о чем.
1044  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Ballon d'Or discussion and odds on: January 16, 2024, 12:54:00 PM
The clownery continues!  Grin

Winners from Best FIFA Football Awards 2023
The Best FIFA Men's Player - Lionel Messi

https://www.90min.com/posts/the-best-fifa-football-awards-2023-full-winners-list

Seriously? It seems that when he retires, they will create a new nomination “the best among pensioners” and will award it to him every year. What makes what happened especially poignant is the fact that, according to leaks, Haaland was supposed to win, so Messi didn’t even come to the ceremony, and when the winner was announced it was very awkward.
What a shameful, pathetic circus. There is a feeling that this clownery will continue until 2027 (in 2026 they will hold the World Cup and finally bury this PR story that everyone is already tired of).
1045  Local / Бизнес / Re: Обзор подписных рекламных компаний за BTC on: January 15, 2024, 09:48:01 PM
Подписная кампания poorbot (a.k.a анонимный бот для обмена криптовалют в казино Stake.com) от менеджера yahoo62278 завершила свою рекламную деятельность спустя всего две недели нахождения на форуме. Видимо, результаты их не совсем удовлетворили и они посчитали нужным не работать себе в убыток. А жаль, вроде там и комиссии за обмен небольшие, да еще и курс близкий к биржевому.

Более чем уверен что их бизнес просто грохнули (вычислили адреса пополнений -> аккаунты в самом казино -> забанили все нахер).
Чудаки хотели на чужом бизнесе руки греть, это как вообще?  Grin
Кроме того что такой схематоз никто не любит даже просто по идейным соображениям, так тут еще и охренеть как они казино могли подставить - если бы по этой схеме пошла грязь (чрезмерно) то казинохе пришлось бы либо вообще такие функции прикрыть, либо душить всех пользователей жестким КУС.
План короче был великолепный, надежный как швейцарские часы. Что могло пойти не так?  Roll Eyes
1046  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [ POLL ] The Unification Fight: FURY vs USYK 17th FEBRUARY 2024 on: January 15, 2024, 05:33:27 PM
~ The lack of promo and activity from all parties involved was starting to make people suspicious.

True. Just the other day I was thinking about this: silence, as if this fight had been crossed out from the schedule and everyone had forgotten about it. Thank God we see activity.

An Ngannou KO wouldn't surprise me at all, but I'm going with what I said about the Fury fight: either Francis KO or AJ on points. The press conference for the AJ/Ngannou fight is going live in London in a few minutes. Watch it on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oES2Ke6bi80

Probably bookmakers consider the probability that Ngannou will win by knockout as not the smallest - approximately 25%:

1.15 - 4.12

It’s unlikely that they believe in the possibility that he will win on points, which means these quotes almost 100% reflect the likelihood that he will win by knockout.
For me personally, the odds look uninteresting for both sides.
1047  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season on: January 15, 2024, 05:24:02 PM
Real Madrid or Manchester City. Don't try to buy quotes from scraps. European football is over, there are only these two teams Smiley

It's quite pathetic how you forgot to mention bayern munich as one of the strong team this season. It has been doing a lot of efforts to strengthening its club like bought kane from totenham. City and real madrid are the best but bayern munich can still count on the miracle that can happen anytime.

Since Manchester City has De Bruyne back in the main squad, I am guessing that other clubs will be scared when they face Manchester City. I can imagine that when real madrid to face manchester city as its opponent when haaland wil be also be able to playing against real madrid.
This will be the most interesting match, I hope that i can see madrid to face manchester city again.

Three times in a row?  Grin Maybe that's enough? I would like Copenhagen to knock out City and we won’t see them in the Champions League anymore. But after yesterday's game where Real started to fool around even with the score 3-1, I would actually be interested to see how they could perform against City. In principle, if half-dead Newcastle could cause them problems, then Real Madrid would have a good chance of winning.
1048  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread on: January 15, 2024, 05:09:42 PM
When Sancho made the assist, there was an avalanche of mockery of Ten Hag on Twitter and forums. For example: Sancho makes a goal pass - Ten Hag punching the air right now  Grin
I hope this is not a one-time success for Sancho and he will continue to delight Dortmund fans. As for Ten Hag, he is now in an even more unpleasant situation than before - it will be quite difficult to justify to the management why a player was bad at United, but good at another club. Plus all this bullying and memes... maybe it will all end with him being fired simply for image reasons. United is a great club (historically) and turning into a circus club is unlikely to be in the plans of the owners.
Now when a player does not play well at Manchester United, they are able to play better in other teams after they move, is this a signal that the real problem at Manchester United lies with the coach? One of the players who feuded with Erik Ten Hag was Ronaldo, even he was not given much opportunity, but when he had a new team he could bring fresh air. This is like breaking all the assumptions that Ronaldo cannot be as expected.
I think Manchester United should start looking at this as something serious, because there are several similar incidents.
Borussia Dortmund's victory can actually be predicted beforehand, because the opponents they face are also not a strong and luxurious team. They did their job well in this match.

Ten Hag had the same case in Ajax - he got rid of a young player (unfortunately I don’t remember his last name) but that player then played as well as before. The facts show that Ten Hag is a conflicted asshole. In small teams this may work, but in big clubs there is no chance - there are many stars here and playing “I’m the boss” will lead to nothing but conflicts.
Meanwhile, Leipzig and Stuttgart lost points and Bayer and Bayern are ahead of everyone else even more (which, however, is not surprising given almost 90% of the points scored).
1049  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Italian League Prediction Thread (Serie A) on: January 15, 2024, 05:02:23 PM
Unfortunately Fiorentina lost some points today and a chance to come closer to Ac.Milan but I must say Udinese played well today and a draw was the correct result in my opinion.

Next is Ac.Milan vs Roma and both teams are looking for points today but Roma needs a victory today no matter what so that's why I can't see this game being a draw.

I remember that before the start of the tour, someone posted their multi-bet here and there were good selections + Fiorentina. I immediately wrote that this was a dubious pick and in the end that multi-bet burned out because of Fiorentina. It seems to me that everything is logical here - Udinese, no matter what position they are in the standings, is always a tough nut to crack, and Fiorentina is not the team to constantly win and confidently be in the top 4. In the end, the result was quite natural - a draw.
1050  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: UEFA Europa League 2023/24 Season on: January 15, 2024, 04:36:12 PM
Mourinho is the one who makes the difference and squeezes the water out of the stone, that's for sure. And it is naive to assume that he can build a galaxy from the usual set of players, so naturally we see mainly defensive tactics and tactical decisions that allow him to beat stronger opponents, even if these decisions are not spectacular.
That's sad that roma doesn't have capital to support any decision from mourinho. People were always expecting big from him coz he was a world class coach with so many achievements. The main problem is in the quality of players owned by roma.
Im not even seeing good players there and that's only lukaku and dybala. The rest was just average player and this is hard to be solved. Mourinho needs a high class squad to win everything.

Moreover, both Lukaku and Dybala are good players, but they were rejected by all the top clubs. Plus, Dybala has already received 4 injuries this season and has missed many games. To win everything you need a top team, but Roma won the Conference League and reached the Europa League final - these are already good achievements. And these are the best achievements of Italian teams until someone takes at least some title. The last two times this was done by Mourinho and only him - in 2011 with Inter and recently with Roma.
1051  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Another question? Tell me your average amount per bet and your monthly income? on: January 15, 2024, 04:27:06 PM
Seems that this is a little too invasive IMO. Average bet is fine, but no one needs to know what anyone's monthly income is unless they are an agent of the IRS or whatever the financial entity is of your country.

Back on the subject, my average bet is small 20-40$ as I like to bet parlays. High risk/high reward. Sometimes smaller if putting in alot of teams(6-10).

 Grin I don’t have statistics on what percentage of forum participants are from which country, but it seems to me that for many people a bet of 20-40 dollars (especially a very risky one with a low return frequency) is a very serious bet. Just to give an example, in my country the average salary is approximately $500. It turns out that your bet is from 4 to 8 percent of the average salary here. If we talk about monthly spending on gambling, then this is the usual amount, but if we talk about a one-time bet, then I would say that it is large.
1052  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Saudi Professional League 2023/2024 on: January 15, 2024, 04:21:25 PM
At the moment, Benzema is suspended from training with the team by the decision of head coach of Ittihad - this is official information. The reason (or occasion) was that he did not arrive with the team at the training base and apparently the head coach is not satisfied with such indiscipline (or lack of subordination), as we remember this happened even at PSG with Messi. Therefore, you should not exaggerate the significance of what is happening. On the other hand, according to rumors, Benzema will be loaned to PSG and then this decision is quite logical - why is he on the team if he still won’t help it in the championship?
It’s a confusing situation, but we’ll definitely know the details before the end of the winter transfer window - if the transfer to PSG takes place, then everything will be clear.
Thank you for providing information that is very easy for me to understand and after reading about the Benzema problem that you wrote about, I became curious and tried to find news from the media and it turned out to be true that Benzema behaved unprofessionally and did not attend the training.
This may be a logical punishment for Benzema because he is a star player who should be more professional and not take it lightly and be absent from training.
I was surprised that a lot of media linked Benzema with other clubs after problems like this occurred. Benzema was linked with PSG. I even read that MU also wanted Benzema but I hope he doesn't choose to be loaned to MU, but rather to PSG.
It's sad to hear this news but it a risk that Benzema must take so he can take this lesson to become a more professional player.

Yes, Benzema could have been more disciplined, but this whole situation is just part of another more general situation where, as I understand, there are other factors such as a conflict with the fans. Moreover, this is not a mutual conflict, but rather harassment of Benzema. Despite the fact that he plays quite well - 9 goals and 5 assists in 15 games is not the worst indicator in the league, the fans insult him (because of this he closed his Instagram account) and pester him in every possible way. By the way, the fact that he reacts to it this way shows that he cares. If he were only interested in money, he would continue to formally fulfill all the requirements (even if he played poorly), but as we see, such a situation is unacceptable for him.
1053  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: January 15, 2024, 04:09:58 PM


In fact, from various sources, Jurgen Kloop said that Kevin De Bruyne's return would shake a country and it was true that in the match against Newcastle, Kevin De Bruyne proved his talent and even though he had just recovered from injury, his performance still amazed everyone who watched. Manchester City's victory was not entirely Pep Guardiola's strategy and was purely the talent of Kevin De Bruyne who had the vision to see his teammate preparing to run to meet the ball and avoid being offside. That is a classy assist that only a few players have and Kevin De Bruyne is one of them.

 Grin Klopp, as always, produces phrases that are more like memes!
Regarding the above, I have long said that Guardiola is just a lucky man who managed to coach three teams that were among the greatest in history. If he has genius or at least talent, it is only in not stopping brilliant football players from expressing themselves. It’s a pity that KDB, in terms of individual awards, was an average player and always will be, no justice here.
1054  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: January 15, 2024, 03:59:04 PM
At the moment, bookmaker quotes for the game are as follows:

2.21 - 3.68 - 2.88

In my opinion, this is the easiest bet on Real Madrid.~

 Cool I hope many people saw the unfairness of the quotes and made a little profit.
After yesterday's destruction of Barcelona, these quotes raise even more questions in me - what were they based on? Real didn't do anything special yesterday, they just played their game and Barcelona couldn't do anything against them. Moreover, it was obvious that Real could improve at any moment, while Barcelona could not do anything at all.
It's funny that at work I made a parlay that Real would win 5-2, but then changed my choice to 3-0. In the end, the average result won  Grin
1055  Local / Oбcyждeниe Bitcoin / Re: «Грязные» биткойны on: January 15, 2024, 03:21:28 PM
~
Мне вот чисто теоретически интересно посмотреть свои адреса на грязность, но делать я этого конечно же не буду, а если и буду то с левых машин.
И желательно еще проверять адреса пачками, смешивая собственный адрес с левыми из блокчейна. Так они не смогут определить кто и когда интересовался чистотой своих накоплений. Электронный адрес для регистрации тоже желательно указывать временный, чтобы как можно меньше оставлять им информации.

Это 100%. После истории с чейнанализом и их подставными сервисами всем бесплатным надо пользоваться в 10 раз осторожнее чем платным  Grin



Мне вот подумалось что следующим шагом по приручению криптоанархистов после KYC/AML/KYT закономерно будет введение в крипту понятия "добросовестный приобретатель".
Очевидно что понятие "чистоты" битков весьма растяжимо (как уже здесь упоминали если битки у хакеров - то грязные, если у мусоров правоохранителей - то автоматически чистые), но оно растяжимо ещё и во времени: обстоятельства совершения транзакций выясняются (для всех участников) вовсе не одновременно и чистые битки которые вы получили сегодня завтра могут быть признаны крайне грязными.
Отсюда имеем потребность вольных людей иметь справку что они биток не украли, не отмыли а честно приобрели... вот собственно это понятие и введено.

Кстати, я пока не слышал о сервисах которые что-то подобное делают вроде "до этого числа это был чистый адрес, с этого числа грязный, а вот с этого уже снова чистый".
Вижу свободную нишу  Cool Идею дарю бесплатно, но если конечно кто-то хочет купить, то ЛС  Roll Eyes
1056  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: January 14, 2024, 09:03:20 PM
The score and the fact that Real is ahead does not surprise me at all, but Barcelona does. I expected a more one-sided game (although what could be more one-sided with the score 2-0 in the 10th minute of the game haha) but Barcelona also creates scoring chances and attacks very dangerously. I wouldn’t be surprised if the game ends with a score of 5-3 or something like that, although in theory now Ancelotti should rebuild the game so that Real plays more reliably after the break. On the other hand, Xavi is forced to take risks and although he has not made any substitutions, I think we will see them soon and this will sharpen the game.

Ahahaha, it was fast: in the 61st minute, Xavi makes a triple attack-oriented substitution, thinking that it’s all in, but in the 64th minute, Rodrigo scores a goal, and in the 71st, Barcelona is in the minority and this is the actual end of the game (although everything was clear before that).
It seems that in the entire second half Barcelona had only one chance, which was created by Joao Felix, although it is not a fact that the goal would have been counted since he helped himself with his hand, I think VAR would have canceled the goal if he had been able to score.
Great game, congratulations to all Real Madrid fans!
1057  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24 on: January 14, 2024, 08:13:04 PM
Real is in a much better form and shape than Barcelona during this season and we all know that,it was expected of them to win this game although the game is not over yet and there is still some time to play.The reason is that they are already ahead in the La Liga and most likely they will win it this season as Girona made quite a mistake in today game by not winning against a weaker team.Barcelona on the other hand is struggling and I think that will be what they will be doing during this season,a place in the Champions League would be their best now when Girona,Real and Atletico are all in better shape than Barcelona.This was their best chance to save the season by getting to win the super cup but it seems not possible now.

The score and the fact that Real is ahead does not surprise me at all, but Barcelona does. I expected a more one-sided game (although what could be more one-sided with the score 2-0 in the 10th minute of the game haha) but Barcelona also creates scoring chances and attacks very dangerously. I wouldn’t be surprised if the game ends with a score of 5-3 or something like that, although in theory now Ancelotti should rebuild the game so that Real plays more reliably after the break. On the other hand, Xavi is forced to take risks and although he has not made any substitutions, I think we will see them soon and this will sharpen the game.
1058  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Premier League Prediction Thread 2023/2024 on: January 14, 2024, 08:01:55 PM
Man United has boring gameplay as always and their rhythm was very monotonous, so it was very easy for Tottenham to anticipate it. I don't know why it took so long for Ten Hag to pull Rashford out. He did score 1 goal, but I think Rashford was the reason Man United's rhythm wasn't going well because Rashford has a tendency to play individually and he is reluctant to make passes even though his teammates are in a good position to score.

It is obvious to me that Tottenham should have won today, and United were just lucky:

Shots - 9:16
Shots on target - 2:6
Corners - 8:13

Quite a shameful statistic for a team that plays at home. But United have a 100% success rate on scoring chances - two shots on target and two goals. But there have already been many such games where United have been lucky this season, but on average we see that they are bad and in fact their results are still terrible - 32 points after 21 games is very little for a team that is fighting for at least something.
1059  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Online or offline gambling which is more safer? on: January 14, 2024, 03:48:37 PM
Assuming I am living in the united states of America I can easily visit a casino and have some good time, meet other gamblers like me and make new friends if possible, but I can't do this over here, there is a lot of insecurity in my country, anything can happen at any time.

Where incomes are made is where bad attacks do happen, daylight robbery, gun shots and even gang fights here and there, if you are from a country where security is a big issue I don't think you should risk your life going to a casino to gamble, I don't even visit the banks, if I have any issue I speak to customer rep on the phone and they will fix the problem for me, we get scare visiting the bank because of armed robbers..

I feel a lot safer gambling on my master bed and transferring funds using my smartphone or laptop instead of visiting the bank or the casino, online gambling made this possible now so offline gambling is not a wise decision for someone like me.


If it's not a secret, are these problems more typical for Democratic states or Republican ones? I have heard that this is more typical for democratic states since Democrats like to regulate and limit everything and as a result, honest people are left without the opportunity to use weapons for self-defense, while criminals continue to use them perfectly (that’s why they are criminals). On the other hand, Democrats also like to restrict/prohibit gambling, so if you live in a Democratic state, then going to an offline casino may also be a problem for you.
I would like more details if possible  Smiley
1060  Local / Oбcyждeниe Bitcoin / Re: «Грязные» биткойны on: January 14, 2024, 03:40:15 PM
А где и как можно посмотреть, на сколько биток грязный у меня?
https://lite.crystalblockchain.com/
Необходима регистрация.

Могу предложить что сервис тоже может быть с подвохом как и валлетдат который был (остаётся) под чейнанализом и сопоставлял интерес к определенным адресам с Ip и прочими метаданными.

Мне вот чисто теоретически интересно посмотреть свои адреса на грязность, но делать я этого конечно же не буду, а если и буду то с левых машин.

Под регистрацией там подразумевается что-то ненапряжное чтобы плату взять или жёсткий KYC?
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