Arepo can I ask in all seriousness... do you have a technical term for this kind of pattern?  it is sinusoidal. not necessary a technical name from the trading world, but it can be modeled with the sine function. why do you ask? it is rather pretty isn't it?  |
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6h and 4h StochRSI looks bad, altho not sure how good is it for predicting the future  i'm not sure either. they look bad because what just happened was bad. there was prior warning though. |
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Anyone knows about that new china taobao crypto ban? Could it be the cause?
no. guys... this is what happens when we go parabolic above a trendline after a bubble. the same thing happened in April-May. i hope all of the newer traders who were confused as to why i was unsettled by this weekends rally, and the multiple warnings of "we'll pay for this later" understand now. we will pay ?? to hell with that, it is great show, popcorn ready +1  haha you're obviously not a merchant trying to actually use bitcoin as a currency, or anything like that  like i said, sometimes i believe the crap about speculators being good for a market, but then again this bullshit happens with frightening regularity... |
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Anyone knows about that new china taobao crypto ban? Could it be the cause?
no. guys... this is what happens when we go parabolic above a trendline after a bubble. the same thing happened in April-May. i hope all of the newer traders who were confused as to why i was unsettled by this weekends rally, and the multiple warnings of "we'll pay for this later" understand now. |
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welp the bottom fell right out of that one
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prolly bots selling on macd crossing signals : D
maybe. we just got a bearish crossover on 6-hour stamp data. |
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Because MtGox SWIFT withdrawals do not work, mtgoxUSD trades consistently higher than bitstampUSD (the mtgoxUSD is devalued). Sometimes, this price difference temporarily spikes up, sometimes it spikes down, for no good reason really.
but that's not satisfying at all, blitz. why should this ever happen? the price differential makes sense to me, but not decoupling of trends. People eager to cash out go to Stamp, When they want to cash out, maybe they are more prone to panic selling. yes i was thinking something like this. why even bother selling on gox? that is so absurd though it invalidates gox data by a serious degree... |
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Because MtGox SWIFT withdrawals do not work, mtgoxUSD trades consistently higher than bitstampUSD (the mtgoxUSD is devalued). Sometimes, this price difference temporarily spikes up, sometimes it spikes down, for no good reason really.
but that's not satisfying at all, blitz. why should this ever happen? the price differential makes sense to me, but not decoupling of trends. |
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critical support on bitstamp ($875) decisisvely breached. next stop, $863, then, bear market. gox and stamp decoupled again  gox consolidation pattern not even knocking on its own floor... Arepo, since you make a lot of informative quality posts, what could be reasons for this decoupling? Manipulation? (sorry if this is a noob question, only trying to get informed  ) haha thanks but that doesn't really make me a 'trusted source' or anything of the like. i would recommend you thoroughly fact-check anything anyone says on these forums. that being said, i have absolutely no clue perhaps the consolidation price at gox is lower compared to the bottom support so even though it isn't straying far it is actually threatening to break down, as well. bitstamp is really taking a tumble though it doesn't really add up... i would trust bitstamp over gox, though, at this point. last night's shut-down-in-the-middle-of-the-night-time-dump was realllly suspicious. --arepo |
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so...
is the price going to go up and stay there?
or we are going to see another drop to 500$?
what do you think?
neither |
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critical support on bitstamp ($875) decisisvely breached. next stop, $863, then, bear market. gox and stamp decoupled again gox consolidation pattern not even knocking on its own floor... |
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s'all about natural systems true that ... I think most will be waiting to buy lower or when it's a bit more stable.... yes, but will anyone be selling? that is the key. if the HODLers hold and the fearful watch, then we will consolidate sideways and not slip into a bear market. the steady underlying buying pressure will buoy us along with the trend, and we will reach Sunday's peak in a couple of days. we need to see some renewed selling pressure today to break us out of this consolidation pattern and into a real mid-term correction. --arepo |
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ok, the four year log chart looks amazingly consistent, but not very useful for day trading or even weekly trading. I gauge the market with fundamental analysis more than technical.
ah! but do the fundamentals change on a weekly basis? and even news events -- how do you quantify their effect on price? for instance, how do you measure whether a particular piece of news has a positive or negative effect on market sentiment? it is not really empirical to use your own reaction for this. The four year log chart is all I need. if it goes down too much, I buy a little. If it goes up too fast, I sell a little. I only buy with money from previous sell orders and never sell more than the percentage of the price gain. no prediction necessary except an upward price bias. so you're saying that daytrading fares little better than chance? if so, i can respect that, because it is the opposite conclusion of most who use technical analysis. what i hate most is the naysayers who still try to daytrade based on what? gut feeling? i don't even know. but the price is either a random walk, or it exhibits nonrandom behavior which can be exploited for profit. there is little in-between... --arepo |
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Thought this might need its own thread. Discuss!! Confidence then, confidence now[snip] this is the third time in the past hour you've made this same post almost verbatim... methinks he doth protest too much tell me, T, are you losing confidence? don't worry, just HODL and this whole thing will blow over in like a week. markets correct, though, they have to. --arepo |
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quantum leap
while the rest of your post was surprisingly good, besides a few (citation needed) moments, i just want to let you know that no one with a background in physics will ever take you seriously so long as you use this phrase It is a figure of speech. Arepo I think coming down to meet the common man might help you more in the weeks and months to come! haha i do appreciate the perspective -- but look! even the "common man" is teasing you for it It is easy to see that confidence is taking a quantum leap forward in comparison with the past.
 Sounds like we're going way beyond the moon. We're going to travel through time. |
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Price history is not irrelevant but if you only look at things on an hourly level you are doing things in an insane fashion.
i know it seems insane, but during tense "decision points" where the market decides whether or not to break a multi-week trendline, a 2-hour breakout can signal a reversal on larger scales. |
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ok, the four year log chart looks amazingly consistent, but not very useful for day trading or even weekly trading. I gauge the market with fundamental analysis more than technical.
ah! but do the fundamentals change on a weekly basis? and even news events -- how do you quantify their effect on price? for instance, how do you measure whether a particular piece of news has a positive or negative effect on market sentiment? it is not really empirical to use your own reaction for this. |
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quantum leap
while the rest of your post was surprisingly good, besides a few (citation needed) moments, i just want to let you know that no one with a background in physics will ever take you seriously so long as you use this phrase |
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I'm talking about the TA tea readers. They remind me of that crazy guy in A Beautiful Mind who saw patterns in random data noise. every movement fits a pattern after the fact, but that's not very useful for predictions.
well, how do you gauge the market then? not using patterns of any sort, oh no, i'm sure price history is completely irrelevant right? |
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Stop spreading FUD. There was no hack or some other strange thing, it was just a huge market maker bot burning some money to clear and reshape his range of the orderbook:  This caused a spike in traffic and maybe killed the http API. The websocket API was working all the time (60s lag though). Very interesting. That's blindly optimistic. Truth is, whatever the reason was, we cannot have exchanges switching off on 500 sells. That's bad and someone will end up getting burnt goxed. ohhhh gox has been goxing along for quite some time now.. the only option is to get out. |
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