triangles are extremely useful and anticipatory. i suggest you learn a little more about the methods you're speaking against.

the volume of the most recent move down has turned the majority of the 2-hour indicators bearish. i anticipate a retest of the $965/$875 (gox/stamp) low by morning.

yeah that was f*ed up. it's kinda nice to see gox still goxing though, and working with bitstamp for once

seriously, it wasn't even a dump, it was just traders inexorably tracing a consolidation pattern. it didn't even break the main support. it is likely the first leg of a downward breakout but who wasn't expecting that?

LOL'd hard

thanks for the feedback!

go + physics seems like our interests overlap significantly

anyway, just a point of clarification, a new ATH after a significant period of consolidation is still on the books. this time the bubble was different. sensible double-top instead of a cusp top, the sell-offs were shallower, and the main bulltrap was higher in relation to the lowest support levels. i'm planning on posting a full diagramming after the pattern is over; i'm using the comparisons with the April bubble and many others as part of my resources right now, and try not to share too too much with the forums -- it causes complications

i see what you mean about the stochastic RSI, though, as one interpretation might be that recently visiting the oversold zone after a longer period of being overbought is actually bearish. we shall see

update!

we are breaking out downwards as i type this. however, we're still being held up by the moving support of the uptrend, i.e. breaking into a larger triangle. these consolidation patterns have a tendency to do just that, breaking out and discovering previously invisible supports and resistances within the consolidation channel. of course, we'll need to break through this support, as well, to see a real reversal.

--arepo

on the 1-day scale...

the volume associated with the doji at the peak is a sign of a top, at least for the short term. in the bullish scenario this would mean a descending bullish triangle consolidation with today's candle spanning from the $1000 bottom all the way to the descending upper bound of the triangle. the consolidation would take a few days, and then we would resume the uptrend. it does tell us that we will likely not see $1090 again for 1-2 days.

interestingly enough, the peak could also be a longer-term reversal, which yields the bearish scenario. there is some disagreement right now between mtgox and bitstamp because gox has just now broken above the upper wick of Sunday's tall green candle, suggesting a bullish breakout from the pattern in the OP and a formation of the longer-term, multi-day bullish triangle consolidation scenario i outlined in the previous paragraph. this, however, does not yet rule out a downwards breakout, in part due to the fact that biststamp prices still seem trapped by that same serious resistance ($950), and the actual resistance on gox seems to be at $1045, slightly higher than Sunday's high. if bitstamp can break above the upper wick of Sunday's candle, it will coincide with a breakout up from the pattern in the OP, and would most likely be followed by a multi-day descending triangle formation, which, again, would be bullish.

the only other option, of course, is a downwards breakout from the pattern in the OP followed by a red candle retracing the gains made on Sunday within 2 days.

i'm a little confused right now why gox is banging on its own upper bound ($1045) while bitstamp has detrended almost $25 below its own ($950). the markets seem to be decoupled. probably an artifact of nighttime volume.

--arepo

price action in the last half hour is beginning to look more and more like a wedge on gox, with bitstamp following suit. since the estimated breakout time lands in the nighttime for most western traders, the breakout paradigm may not materialise on schedule. look for a high-volume movement first thing in the morning to get a directionality signal.

this is a continuation of a free series that i will be posting from time to time.
last issue: Decision Point! -or- A Page From Arepo's Notes

SO! Let's take a quick look at the present moment on Gox (for all you bitstampers out there, the prices are largely correlated so this analysis applies equally!)


http://s28.postimg.org/fg67oje7h/trendornotrend.png

we've got two possible patterns, one a bearish flag the other a rising wedge (usually bearish), depending on which parts of the data can be considered outliers. for the flag, breakout is in 0.5 - 3 hours, for the wedge, breakout in 1-5 hours. however, there is a case to be made for both bearish and bullish scenarios. this is intended to be an overview and a brief tutorial on how to interpret the various indicators available over at bitcoincharts.com. as always, questions and clarifications are welcome and encouraged!

The Bull Case

===

10-day 2-hour scale @ GOX


http://postimg.org/image/yfzanaxz1/

===

MFI:
an oscillator that incorporates volume
we've touched down onto a strong moving support, marking the third point of contact that describes a robust trendline*, which is very bullish. this suggests that we've reached the bottom of a correction to the trend, and we will break up out of this pattern.
*a line can be drawn through any 2 points so 3 points is the minimum for a robust linear model for channels, trendlines, and bounds for various other patterns.

StochRSI:
a very light oscillator
upwards movement after an overbought period (blue) on this oscillator is bullish. if it continues, we should break up. a reversal in this indicator would be bearish.

CMF:
an price-volume transformation that acts as an oscillator
not only is the CMF strongly positive, a small but robust upwards trend is visible. as long as this trend continues we will stay on track for the mid-term trend.

PVT:
another price-volume transform
same interpretation as the MFI -- trendline intact, also very robust with 4 points of contact.

The Bear Case

===

10-day 2-hour scale @ GOX


http://postimg.org/image/dht4p7y4d/

===

UO:
an oscillator based on moving averages
these data show a retest of an important support, as well as a lower high correlated with the recent peak. very bearish. if the support holds we may see sideways consolidation, but a break under this support would be very bearish.

Mass Index:
volume tracker
this indicator is calibrated to peak during reversals, which are usually periods of high volatility and high volume. the red and blue bounds are critical, intended to show periods during which volume and volatility are significantly higher than during normal trending and consolidating behavior. a short-term peak above this threshold threatens a reversal.

William's:
another light oscillator
in these data we see a broken support, and a consolidation underneath perhaps forming a bearish triangle. if we cannot break above this support, the mid-term trend is likely over.

SlowStoch:
measures the momentum of price movement
similar story here, with a broken support and an even more bearish consolidation. if we cannot break above the 50-line, the trend is over. if we break above the 50-line but consolidate under the old support, we may see sideways consolidation. a break above the old support would be a confirmation of the mid-term trend.

i hope i have given some of you the tools to trade this exciting moment dynamically. here's a great resource that has the actual formulas as well as in-depth explanations/interpretations of the various indicators. keep in mind that the linked site is intended for other markets, and that my own personal interpretations have been tested and calibrated specifically for the bitcoin price function, but the basic interpretational intuitions still apply. good luck!

--arepo

I work diligently in my analysis, and share it with you as I can. If you learn from me, help keep it free!
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz

you had no obligation to give them anything. their asking is entirely within their expected freedoms...

you've been here quite some time to say you've never seen it behave this way... i wouldn't say it's anything out of the ordinary besides the obvious differences in price environment.

so the mouse wheel seems only to increase it to some arbitrary max, and then allows you to zoom in from there, but if you want to view a longer timeframe zooming out with your browser's built-in zoom function seems to work well.

nope, got it, just getting used to the interface, thanks

yeah, cusps are a bitch

any way to increase the default viewing timeframe? it seems automatically tied to the candle width.

not quite sure... i think it will be very difficult to tell, indeed, when the price discovery phase has actually ended. it will simply be a massive bubble (and each new one is bigger and bigger, anyway), that doesn't stabilise back onto trend. ever. this is partly why it's so exciting, because it will be nearly impossible to predict. determining the final market cap for bitcoin given worldwide adoption has always been a particularly masturbatory practice, as you can see from the many threads dedicated to such a task which all yield wildly different results based on the varying initial assumptions.

--arepo

exactly what i was looking for, thanks much MA

anyone know any good price tickers like clark moody's with an interactive graph that shows price points and such when you scroll over it, that has a candlestick view?

this resource was invaluable to me in the past and i can't find a good one for bitstamp...

sorry, Blitz, i know this probably doesn't belong here but i'm asking fellow speculators because that is what i intend to use this resource for

--arepo

bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered.

and so-called "common sense" is what leads pigs to the slaughterhouse.

FTFY