So we above 20k again
You meant 21?  |
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Up only! So far 2023 is turning out to be as predictable as the other rallies off the bottom. I don't understand how traders could follow anything but the 4-year cycle at this point. It's been demonstrated over and over again, but for whatever reason people want to trade the little news ticks back and forth with each other. It really doesn't have to be so stressful guys. Sell every 4 years, buy every 4 years and you'll do great. Try to trade every little news article and you're going to lose your ass. Buy now, sell in 2025. It sounds so simple but yet so many people will miss the trade...
4 year cycle is still holding, but 2025 might be too imprecise as 2017 had a 20X variation in price within the year. I would says what i expect the peak earlier than December of 2025, maybe again a double hump with the second hump lower (not higher) with the first hum coming by around the end of Q1 2025 (slightly earlier because the cycle is NOt exactly 4 year and we are expected to shift to march from prior halving being in may). For once, I don't believe in lengthening of cycles. |
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Hi, I'm from Dubai and I can see that bitcoin is now rising again. Is it a good time to invest now? I'm new to the cryptocoins  Thanks in advance  you're welcome haha...I guess Saudis figured that oil is not enough for them to afford Ronaldo's wages. Dubai is not SA, though |
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Both bitcoin and small stocks are way up.
Either there will be good CPI numbers on the 12th OR they are pumping before dumping on us.
I have seen shorties performed "tricks' like this before.
Hence, I am not buying into a surge, but rather selling small amounts of stonks, not touching btc.
I don't think that we are done for the stonks downside yet (could be going up a bit first, though).
It seems like the bond market has signaled that the Fed isn't going to be raising as much as they think, and markets are celebrating that. Specifically with Bitcoin, it seems that the worst of the storm is behind us and the melting up has begun. I expect this to last for quite some time, at least until profit taking for the halving takes place. It's starting to look like this year is going to be smooth sailing though, at least until the mtgox distribution near the end of the year, but I suspect by then the market will be jumping into Bitcoin before the next bubble happens. Hopefully that minimized the mtgox downside a bit. hmm...maybe a 2019-like with acceleration into the end of Q1 instead of mid Q2, then a "flag" related to MtGox, finishing at 60-70% higher by the EOY. |
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Both bitcoin and small stocks are way up.
Either there will be good CPI numbers on the 12th OR they are pumping before dumping on us.
I have seen shorties performed "tricks' like this before.
Hence, I am not buying into a surge, but rather selling small amounts of stonks, not touching btc.
I don't think that we are done for the stonks downside yet (could be going up a bit first, though).
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@jjg...I don't think your numbers really prove anything as one could have gotten 200 BTC in 2015 (at $250) for $50K or 100btc for 25K instead of 20 for $5K as far as bulk purchase is concerned.
I still posit that earlier on, bulk btc purchase was better than DCA. Nobody stops you to do a small DCA later, sure.
What I am getting at is that, apart from bitcoin going to $5-10mil or more in the period that is longer than usual investor timeline, say 20 years, it is difficult to imagine that current small DCA of a thou or even 10 thou a year would result in a TRUE wealth in a foreseeable future.
I played with uphold DCA calculator that has limited capability: I inputted 12 mo DCA 8k/mo during 2015 (it cannot accept variable amounts per mo for a bulk purchase).
Total amount spent 96K, total number of bitcoins 351.
If you do the same one year DCA later, for example 2017, using the same money (8k/mo), you get just 45btc, which is about 8 times less.
In 2020-9 BTC.
In 2021, you would have gotten "just" 2 BTC (175 times less than in 2015).
2022-4 BTC (better than 2021, but still about 90 time "worse" than 2015).
So, if you combine just those three years (2020-2022), you would have spent 288K buying 15BTC (19.2K/btc)
I made an example in a way that it easier to see what would happen if you use 1/10 (about 800/mo or about 10K, year-more of a middle class investor realm of possibilities).
In such case (1/10), you would have spent about $29K while DCAing in 2020-2022 and got 1.5BTC, which is not a significant number for being wealthy, unless it goes to $5 mil and inflation gets to 2% a year soon.
Conclusion: Bitcoin is just too big in market cap already...could do 10X, maybe even 30-50X (to be like gold).
Going forward, it is likely that you would get low single digits btc/year EVEN if investing at a rate that is beyond typical middle class possibilities (in my example).
Surely, Musk can always buy a lot of btc.
In 10 years even 5-10 btc could be a fortune (if inflation cooperates), so members should play with numbers and see how they can get there depending on their current situation.
However, if bitcoin continues it's upward trajectory, buying "bulk" would always get you more btc than DCA, as shown in my examples above.
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DCA is how a moderate wealth is formed.
Deep value bulk buy and hold is how typically a larger wealth is formed, it is just a fact, albeit this is more risky.
As usual, more risk, more reward.
Of course, you can do a combination of bulk buy and DCA.
Then, there is something that I call a VC approach-a relatively small $ number for many very early/risky projects/stocks/whatever.
In this case, most will not pan out, but some will work great if you can choose them wisely. It's difficult to do and wait times could be more than a decade.
In this approach, you would have to intentionally limit your initial allocation and wait (could do small DCA) longer.
My main conundrum, though, are not with the investments themselves, but with cashing out. It seems that in most cases it is never a good time to cash out, but then, how to monetize holdings?
As we already know, typical means did not pan out in "our" area-witness Celsius, Blockfi, etc., etc.
Selling an asset with basically unlimited potential such as bitcoin seems stupid, although I did sell as needed here and there (not at tops or bottoms).
In a current environment it is simple: just have a large cash account and collect 4, soon 5% in interest, no need to sell anything, but once we drop to 2-3%, money would move toward more risky assets again.
TL;DR It is psychologically difficult to peel off money for consumption from assets such as bitcoin.
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 I cant decide what to do with the new space above the new garage.... (thank you bitcoin) A studio to record really bad songs? (Jay and marcus would like that) <snip>A billiards table to play billiards or snooker. (not that retarded American eight ball crap) I kid... I always play eight ball on a pool table. It's what everyone knows. Albeit, my late dear old dad taught me 3 ball billiards and snooker...the real deal, imo, when it comes to games on a pool billiard table. <snip> GO BITCOIN  To me it looks perfect for a table tennis table, if you have a company or can invite one easily. Table tennis (ping-pong) is basically a range of motion exercise, you can improve your agility, etc, etc I wish I had a space where I can put one up. |
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wow, @phil, those one year differences in NY groceries are just CRAZY (feels almost like Argentina).
@BitcoinBunny...it goes to how that long-term inflation numbers are cringe-worthy.
Alas, apart from buying btc (and, reluctantly, maybe gold), what one can do?
Gold goes up and down so slowly that you never know if you are getting a bargain or buying at the top as we are still below the 2011 top, 12 years later.
I bought a little of paper silver (SLV) some time ago, not going to buy a bag and store it somewhere. It is not the same, but, hopefully, sufficiently close for a hedge.
Still, this is just for fun.
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OT: Torque's New Years Resolution
To watch all the programs on Netflix that interest me over the next few months (mostly documentaries), and then cancel my subscription.
Reason: I am so done with their bullshit agenda-pushing, bait-and-switch garbage shows. Just not worth it anymore.
<snip> These days, I'm starting to think if it doesn't have Tom Cruise and isn't directed by James Cameron it's a 50-50 gamble it will suck. On streaming the odds are worse in favour of it sucking. I beg to disagree...Ridley Scott is just as good as a director, but as far as commercial success-yes, maybe a bit more patchy. Scott's movies that i liked: Alien (the original one), Black rain (M. Douglas), Gladiator (with Russel Crowe), The Martian (with M. Dimon). Albeit, he is 85 and started making "historical" movies, although Napoleon could be good. |
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But there needs to be an error margin: will say it's very important to make mistakes, because they are essential for development (as a motivator to learn and to change behavior).
I disagree. It's pretty counterintelligent to allow forseeable mistakes. Still, "we" do this more often than not. In general that's likely. But I would be very careful not to make absolute assertions. Again, making mistakes (even knowingly) can lead to very positive outcomes or very important learning motivations. And when I say knowingly... sometimes we just think we "know" something is a foreseeable mistake, but we might just be wrong about it and in reality it's no mistake. Just an example: many years ago I was 100% sure that not selling my Bitcoin after making the first 5x or 10x was absolutely a mistake. Today I think it was one of the best decisions in my life. Where would I be now without making that "mistake"... I would say making mistakes (even knowingly) from time to time might be part of a kind of natural intelligence, or maybe you could call irrational or non-linear intelligence of natural evolution. Like a mutation that brings novelty in the world of living beings. Nicely put, although some situations (not bitcoin) are so complex that you cannot really know which way the situation would develop, so any decision might just be randomly right or wrong. We simply have a 'survivorship' bias. There are many examples in evolution, markets, etc that look like, basically, a random walk. George Soros made a famous $1 bil profit on a single trade by shorting British pound and almost everyone in the investment world knows about it. However, if they wanted, British government could have ruined that trade, just as US stopped Hunt brothers from cornering silver (by just slightly changing some rules in the middle of the "game"). They (British) probably did not care about a single billion that much. In another example, Nick Leeson piled up $1 bil in losses and ruined his parent company (Barings Bank). One of the reasons of those losses was an earthquake in Japan; he was an over-leveraged long...and there you go. If no earthquake, maybe we would be reading about the most famous trader Nick Leeson having foundations, etc. This story was depicted in "Rogue Trader"-I enjoyed it quite a bit. |
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A major clash between Winkelvoss twins and Barry S: https://twitter.com/cameron/status/1609913051427524608/photo/1check out the twitter thread...Epic! I checked that Earn product, but as soon as I saw that they are actually lending to a third party (Genesis), any thoughts of participating quickly disappeared. Could there be any contagion to bitcoin? maybe, but, hopefully, limited. GBTC might be affected, though, darn it! I have a small bit in ret accounts. |
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-snip-
<snip2>Also, I remain a BIG advocate of the stock to flow model, even if the stock to flow model, may well need to be shifted downwardly on its axis and also there has also been needs to include other angles in terms of assessing stock to flow including how to prepare yourself psychologically and financially for either BTC price direction even while ascribing validity to stock to flow, but how many people (normies) got reckt for their seemingly overly reliance on stock to flow specifics? How many people are going to end up getting reckt here on out because they believe stock to flow is dead..? hahahahahaha Don't blame me when people get reckt and they they say "you said.. blah blah blah.?
Well, why didn't I get reckt? Yet? Consider that.
Actually, there are likely quite a few of WO regulars who did not get reckt.. but there may well be some portfolios that are doing better than other portfolios, but also depending on how they are being measured.. and sometimes it can be misleading to measure at specific snapshot times too... Nonetheless, we can still have our ways of making various arguments with one another and to say that "you should do this" or "you should have done that." It's up to each of us, if we consider whether to make any adjustments at this point or at some time in the future in order to perhaps have better feelings about our investment portfolios. .and hopefully, BTC's ongoing role within that.
I submit getting reckt is subjective. Am I reckt? my mining income is no longer 32k/4 per month it is more like 4k/4 per month. So 8000 a month is now 1000 a month Is that reckt? For some that would be reckt for me it is not why is that? $0 debt. Yeah it was nice making 8k a month for some months in 2021 and for some months in 2022. It is not so nice making 1k per month. But $0 debt and a good power deal means I am ready for uppity. A rebound for BTC means my mining rebounds. flatline for BTC means I can expand my btc gear and my btc holdings. So this year 2023 at 14-18k means I dca I buy some dips. I grow my mine. or this year at 28-38k means I dca I keep mine size stable. We all have plans one way or the other. I am set in the 14-18k range I am set in the 28-38k range I am set in the 56-100k range I am set in the 101-200k range I am selling and stopping all mining or dca in the 200k+ range. on the downside I am good till around 6k at 6k I am not sure what mining will be for me as my power may not be cheap enough at that price. i think that all hodlers got rekt in a sense (if you had most before 2022) by losing 70% of the nominal value (measured in less ability to pay for typical things), although it is different in comparison to the situation when your coins were stolen either by a hack or by some unscrupulous, possibly criminal, and definitely negligible entity such as FTX, Blockfi, Celsius, etc, etc. As far as breakeven for mining, people can tolerate negative return for a short time (I assume maybe half a year or a bit less). |
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I don't know, but it looks painfully real. Btw, the "new all time high" btc poll distribution is quite informative now. I looked at many graphs depicting future perspectives. The consensus is, unless due to macro factors we would be in complete collapse, bitcoin would peak in later 2024-mid 2025 at 110-220K. I know that it is a bit broad, but, again, this is a summary. Most scenarios, assuming a low at 13.8K (close to most bearish)-15.6K (already done), lie at around 150-190K. |
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That figure does NOT support the underlying thesis as both ARK and Buffett claim to invest long term, he is just better at it (so far), that's all. |
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Finally saw Avatar 2: The Way of Water. Pretty great.  Top Gun Maverick is still probably my favourite movie of 2022, but this came very, very close. Super enjoyable. I agree.. with just one suggestion...DO NOT watch it in 3D...looks a bit cartoonish a first few minutes before you get used to it, but then everything is smooth. Looking forward to A3...was reading some rumors about the plot...in short, it might go beyond Pandora. How? It remains to be seen. |
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