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881  Economy / Speculation / Re: Has technical analysis been thoroughly debunked in the bitcoin community yet? on: August 07, 2014, 06:10:53 PM
I'm not saying that people can't get an edge on a market by understanding the underlying causes of what moves the price, and the psychological factors involved.

This. This is TA.

You say human action isn't quantifiable with patterns on a chart.


No, I do say that it is.

And anyone who thinks they have the ability to do so should be able to prove it. Even if only to themselves. Tracking and honest reporting of results should be a priority for anyone.

I shared my results to prove something, and those results were profitable, then others would copy it making my strategy less profitable. So there is no incentive. I have nothing to prove except to myself.

I do see your other point though. There are mountains of bullshit that are marketed to new traders, promising them huge returns with no work. You don't see that too much here (yet) but in traditional markets it's a huge business that preys on the ignorant. Of course there is no free lunch.

Even sites like stockcharts.com don't go into much detail about how to apply TA. They're simply a collection of definitions... what new traders may not understand is getting the basics down is more important than understanding a bunch of indicators... it's like jumping into the deep end of the pool before you've learned to swim. Start with Dow theory--there is nothing magical about it, it's simply understanding how markets work on a basic level. Work up to support and resistance, then moving averages, then reversal signals, maybe some momentum and overbought/oversold indicators... that's pretty much all I use to time the market. Even things like Elliot Wave analysis is too much for me. Maybe someday.
882  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 07, 2014, 04:52:20 PM
Need some volume soon or else the engine might stall again.
883  Economy / Speculation / Re: Has technical analysis been thoroughly debunked in the bitcoin community yet? on: August 07, 2014, 04:32:02 PM
I'm not saying that people can't get an edge on a market by understanding the underlying causes of what moves the price, and the psychological factors involved.

This. This is TA.

You say human action isn't quantifiable with patterns on a chart. I disagree. The field of psychology disagrees. Take a double or triple top. The price bounces of a resistance point two or three times, then falls. Now think about when you knock on someone's door. Do you knock eight or nine times? No. Two or three is sufficient to figure out there's nobody home.

To non-analysts these are simply lines on a chart. To students of TA they say a lot more, and the pictures don't actually matter, what matters is what they represent.

To use another analogy (and to argue that TA is more like an art than science), I could teach you music theory but it wouldn't necessarily make you a good musician. You would be informed, but playing Mozart or Scarlatti piano sonatas might not come easily. That takes years of practice and dedication, and even then you might have no ear at all and someone with a natural affinity to music (basically the ability to perceive it in one's head accurately without an instrument in front of them) would likely eclipse you very quickly with much less work invested. It is not the notes on the paper, it is interpreting what they represent.

In the same way TA requires good intuition, an understanding of human action, and the dedication (also obsession) of learning the markets inside and out, how/why/where they move and when, and mastering one's emotions. There are repeatable patterns that I've learned to recognize and it often feels more like art that science. I can't explain it, neither can I explain how I hear and recognize music intervals without a piano in front of me, or how I control/convey my emotions while performing. It's not very quantifiable on paper, but neither is what artists do. All I can say is that I'm able to make money doing it.
884  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Oh Dumpy! <3 Could you teach me to dump as you do? on: August 07, 2014, 12:12:39 AM
I'm convinced.

Dump3er, I need to offload the rest of my bitcoins in style. Should I dump now or dump later?
885  Economy / Speculation / Re: How many BTC do you own? on: August 06, 2014, 07:36:59 PM

Passwords are in my brain. Can't really hack that...yet.

Breaking into my house? Bring a pistol...because you're going to need it.

I hope for your sake that you have used sufficient randomization in what I am assuming are brain wallets.
You'd be surprised at how well many seemingly "random" words, even with misspelling, can be brute forced.


True, that's why using an 8 word Diceware passphrase is recommended.

I've often thought of using a Brainwallet but if something ever happened to me my family wouldn't have access to those coins.

The answer to the original question: Not enough. Last year people were content with $100 bitcoins. Seemed like a pretty even number. Just kidding, price shot up 10x.
886  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: 0.2 FEE!!!! ? am i missing something? on: August 06, 2014, 07:27:17 PM
Take responsibility for your mistake, contact the miner. If they are a decent human being (I think most miners are) you'll probably get it returned.
887  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does anybody take the content of this section seriously? on: August 06, 2014, 04:23:46 PM
Not really, no. Profitable speculators don't give away their secrets.

Well, what's a "secret"? There are a handful of analysts that I watch because they have shown themselves to be consistently profitable. It's easy to pick apart peoples' records, but anyone who is right > 50% of the time in regards to big moves, is worth looking at.

Every trader is different in regards to the system they use... Different timescales, coin pairs, etc, maybe they arbitrage or program bots. Those methods would be considered secrets if they are consistently profitable because the more people using it, the less profitable it will be.
888  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is $500 the new $50 of 2013 on: August 06, 2014, 03:40:22 PM
I feel like it's more like $120. We hung out there for such a long time. Bitcoin is finally stable, they said.
889  Economy / Speculation / Re: Does anybody take the content of this section seriously? on: August 05, 2014, 08:34:48 PM
Not really, no. Profitable speculators don't give away their secrets.
890  Economy / Speculation / Re: Presenting the 670-day Bitcoin price cycle on: August 04, 2014, 12:30:19 AM
Well see continued stability until dumbasses outside the BTC choo choo train realize they are late as big players jump in.

This is how it goes every time. Once the train gets going it gets more and more expensive to jump on. We are still refueling and doing engine maintenance IMO. Once we actually leave the station price will be around $800.
891  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 03, 2014, 03:04:37 AM
Daily chart bear trap.
892  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: August 02, 2014, 01:09:09 AM
So this could be the end of the bitcoin bubbles, possibly. Will a competitor come and dethrone bitcoin? Or, are we just entering a new and much smaller growth period?

Bubbles don't go straight up. They pause and correct, sometimes for *gasp* days.
893  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 01, 2014, 07:12:14 PM
Lol I wonder who these 8 people that claim to have more than > 10000 are. I hope to have at least 10 in the next 10 years, and for the 99% of us that missed the boat to get legitimate gains Bitcoin needs to go really high. 10K is the bare minimum. I wonder if we will see it in the next 10 years.

You invest what you can... and you did NOT miss the boat, so long as you know about BTC (which you do) and you are doing something about it (which it sounds as if you are).  There are a lot more people out there who either have NOT heard about BTC or have NOT done anything about it or taken any action towards accumulating BTC.

Right. You never know, the guy with a BTC10,000 wallet might sell most of it during the next bubble (I should say "accumulation cycle") thinking it won't go any higher. You just don't know. Lots of people had more bitcoins than that a few years ago and sold them at $5 or $10. That's how distribution works. Don't worry about what others are doing--worry about your own plan.
894  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: I lost 14.47 bitcoins due to an error in blockchain.info iOs app on: August 01, 2014, 06:53:08 PM
So if I understand correctly...

-you created a btc address on your iphone
-you transferred 14.47btc from your mtgox account to that address
-you open your iphone app only to discover that the address you created doesn't show up (due to a bug in the app)

It's possible that the private key of that address may still be in your iphone even though the address doesn't appear. I believe blockchain.info private keys are hashed locally in your device by your password. Have you tried jailbreaking the iphone and searching the app directory for the hash?
895  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: do you think folk from argentina are going to.. on: August 01, 2014, 06:41:34 PM
A percentage of people at the top with the means to acquire Bitcoin certainly will.
896  Economy / Speculation / Re: Crash to $0.5 imminent. All bets are off. on: July 31, 2014, 07:21:47 PM
(And before you say the obvious "Well, because they're rich now!", no.  Just NO.  95% of them are not in the slightest, they pissed most of it all away years ago.  If they were bitcoin rich, they wouldn't bother logging in to bitcointalk at all.)

Yep, that part is true.  One of my friends had something like 1600 and sold them all for $2 each.

Haha I bet you give him a hard time over that every now and then Tongue.

Considering he'd be a millionaire with that amount today, probably not a great idea to rub it in.
897  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 31, 2014, 06:48:34 AM
Ok, i'm back all in. After all that panic buying and selling i'm left with less than 1 coin Sad

Anyway, back to 600!

*facepalm*
898  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: July 30, 2014, 08:46:44 PM
I have a shitty blackberry and I never make calls, I only use Whatsapp so I pay about 6€ monthly for my contract. I don't smoke, drink or go out partying. I barely go out because I can't pay for the train to begin with.

So like I said, my only scape that I see right now, realistically, is if Bitcoin goes much higher in the next 10 years. So unless this was it and the big gains already happened, im pretty much fucked, unless totally out of my control lucky events unfold.

I have a dozen vacancies available in my hotel in Estonia. It doesn't look like your quality of life would suffer even if you became our room cleaner. You would get paid 400 euros/month + bed. Food is cheap and wifi included. Our business center has a computer with 15" monitor. You would mainly interact with btc people in all levels 10, 100, 1000, 10000 btc, including devs. Caught stealing => instant dismissal. Caught lying => one warning. Caught being lazy doing appointed tasks => two warnings. Possibility to advance in the career up to hotel manager level. Hotel manager gets about 4000 euros + perks.

This is open for everyone, I will later post the details about employee levels, work tasks and compensation scheme.

A true equal opportunity, rags to riches thing reminiscient of the 1880s, which coincidentally was the latest golden age in the castle also Smiley

Well that shut him up, no surprise there Smiley
899  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 30, 2014, 08:01:34 PM
at what point will hell break loose on bitfinex?

When all the margined shorts suddenly cry out in terror, then fall silent.
900  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 30, 2014, 07:57:42 PM
yes people sell now

@ShroomsKit
If you by any chance still have 0.000001 BTC somewhere, SELL NOW

Careful guys. If you haven't sold already it becomes more and more risky as we close in on 560.

Rule #2 of trading: If you don't know what to do, HOLD
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