rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

But what languages do you have to be able to speak? I suppose it's not enough to speak English fluently?

Cleaning is language-independent. Knowledge of Estonian, Russian, Finnish or any other language is a bonus and will help with promotions.

[1714485981]

1714485981

[rpietila]

rpietila - where is that trendline now?

Wrong thread. And 34 celcius too tired to think. It is somewhere between -0.4...-0.5 currently.

[ensurance982]

rpietila - where is that trendline now?

Wrong thread. And 34 celcius too tired to think. It is somewhere between -0.4...-0.5 currently.

But is the trendline itself still holding strong or do you need to make some adjustments because the trend proved to be too far off?

[rpietila]

rpietila - where is that trendline now?

Wrong thread. And 34 celcius too tired to think. It is somewhere between -0.4...-0.5 currently.

But is the trendline itself still holding strong or do you need to make some adjustments because the trend proved to be too far off?

SlipperySlope is using a trendline with fixed slope. My trendline is calculated daily using all available data.

Thus, SS is making assumptions. I am not.

[ensurance982]

rpietila - where is that trendline now?

Wrong thread. And 34 celcius too tired to think. It is somewhere between -0.4...-0.5 currently.

But is the trendline itself still holding strong or do you need to make some adjustments because the trend proved to be too far off?

SlipperySlope is using a trendline with fixed slope. My trendline is calculated daily using all available data.

Thus, SS is making assumptions. I am not.

Got a ressource or dynamic plot for your trendline? I only know about an image of the graph from November 2013

[rpietila]

SlipperySlope is using a trendline with fixed slope. My trendline is calculated daily using all available data.

Thus, SS is making assumptions. I am not.

Got a ressource or dynamic plot for your trendline? I only know about an image of the graph from November 2013

Sorry, no. I'll update it to the thread about once per month.

[Bagatell]

SlipperySlope is using a trendline with fixed slope. My trendline is calculated daily using all available data.

Thus, SS is making assumptions. I am not.

Got a ressource or dynamic plot for your trendline? I only know about an image of the graph from November 2013

Sorry, no. I'll update it to the thread about once per month.

Isn't this your trendline?

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=log+%28bitcoin%2Fusd%29++%2F+log+10+%2B+2.869800+-++0.003012+*++number+of+days+since+2009+Jan+03+%2Fdays+

[Wexlike]

Autsch almost -0,5. Now i'm kind of sad, that i'm already out of FIAT - but all in Bitcoin.  

I am really curious if this log trendline will hold over time.

[saddambitcoin]

I have a shitty blackberry and I never make calls, I only use Whatsapp so I pay about 6€ monthly for my contract. I don't smoke, drink or go out partying. I barely go out because I can't pay for the train to begin with.

So like I said, my only scape that I see right now, realistically, is if Bitcoin goes much higher in the next 10 years. So unless this was it and the big gains already happened, im pretty much fucked, unless totally out of my control lucky events unfold.

I have a dozen vacancies available in my hotel in Estonia. It doesn't look like your quality of life would suffer even if you became our room cleaner. You would get paid 400 euros/month + bed. Food is cheap and wifi included. Our business center has a computer with 15" monitor. You would mainly interact with btc people in all levels 10, 100, 1000, 10000 btc, including devs. Caught stealing => instant dismissal. Caught lying => one warning. Caught being lazy doing appointed tasks => two warnings. Possibility to advance in the career up to hotel manager level. Hotel manager gets about 4000 euros + perks.

This is open for everyone, I will later post the details about employee levels, work tasks and compensation scheme.

A true equal opportunity, rags to riches thing reminiscient of the 1880s, which coincidentally was the latest golden age in the castle also

How would you like us to apply for the job? 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Unemployment, insofar as it is involuntary, is mostly the result of minimum wage laws. With Bitcoin it becomes pretty hard to enforce those laws. If a high school student who is unable to find work wants to sell her anime drawings that take her four hours to make for only $10 ($2.50 per hour) and get paid in bitcoins via Tor, who can stop her?

That's baloney... Unemployment is much more complicated an issue than merely the level of minimum wage laws.

There are a variety of infrastructure issues and societal concerns about the distribution of wealth.  If companies and the rich decide how profits are distributed, then they are going to maintain high unemployment in order to exploit workers and there is NO incentive to invest in the infrastructure if there is NOT a decent system of government to protect various assets and making those kinds of infrastructure investments.  A very complex issue indeed, and bitcoin is NOT going to solve all of these kinds of political problems, even though bitcoin can contribute towards resolving some monetary corruption problems.. and to potentially provide a deflationary investment vehicle for the masses.

yeah, the issue is split almost 50/50 at research institutions/universities about whether raising minimum wage is good or bad. there is no consensus, so what you believe is just what you believe.

What does consensus have to do with anything? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_populum

This is basic economic logic: you institute price caps you get lack of sellers (shortages), you institute price floors (in this case minimum wage) you get lack of buyers (in this case employers).

Note that welfare isn't relevant - there's a reason I said "insofar as it is involuntary"; welfare results in some people voluntarily going on the dole, remaining unemployed.

--

As to technological unemployment, it is indeed a good thing. Nay, a fantastic thing. A world without a demand for anyone to work except those who are highly technically skilled would clearly be a world of plenty. Just think about it: no one needs anything non-technical done; that means no non-technical need is going unfulfilled: no one is hungry, because if there were any shortage of food there would be demand for farmers. No one is unclothed, because if there were any shortage of clothes there would be demand for weavers, etc.

And if you'll say that any shortage of clothing will just be met by more machines, YES, that's the whole point and it's great! It means, again, there is no shortage of clothing. Clothing is not in demand. But still more miraculously, no people (or very few people) are required to devote their labor to achieve this state of affairs. It's the whole reason you buy a dishwasher, for example, freeing you up to do something you think is more fun or valuable than washing dishes by hand. You're not working anymore because you don't need to do the work. You're either doing some other work that needed doing, or - if there is no other work at all that needs doing - you're living in a paradise, since all your needs that could be met by any kind of human labor are already met. You don't even need a shoulder massage, because if you did you could hire someone to do that and that would be a non-technical job created, contradicting the initial assumption.

This would be paradise, a situation where you don't need to work at all and you can still experience a higher standard of living than you do now. On the way there, we'll have intermediate situations where you can work only part time with no reduction in life quality, then only 5 hours a week, then a few minutes a week will do it. Finally most people won't work at all unless they want to enjoy an even higher standard of living or if they just want to occupy themselves with something for the fun or psychic reward of it. There is absolutely nothing to be afraid of about this scenario. And keep in mind at no time is the unemployment involuntary in such a future. It's people working less because they care little to better their already quite nice situation by toiling for hours a day; instead they will work only a few hours a week, or eventually not at all - all the while enjoying an increasing standard of living.

[bassclef]

I have a shitty blackberry and I never make calls, I only use Whatsapp so I pay about 6€ monthly for my contract. I don't smoke, drink or go out partying. I barely go out because I can't pay for the train to begin with.

So like I said, my only scape that I see right now, realistically, is if Bitcoin goes much higher in the next 10 years. So unless this was it and the big gains already happened, im pretty much fucked, unless totally out of my control lucky events unfold.

I have a dozen vacancies available in my hotel in Estonia. It doesn't look like your quality of life would suffer even if you became our room cleaner. You would get paid 400 euros/month + bed. Food is cheap and wifi included. Our business center has a computer with 15" monitor. You would mainly interact with btc people in all levels 10, 100, 1000, 10000 btc, including devs. Caught stealing => instant dismissal. Caught lying => one warning. Caught being lazy doing appointed tasks => two warnings. Possibility to advance in the career up to hotel manager level. Hotel manager gets about 4000 euros + perks.

This is open for everyone, I will later post the details about employee levels, work tasks and compensation scheme.

A true equal opportunity, rags to riches thing reminiscient of the 1880s, which coincidentally was the latest golden age in the castle also

Well that shut him up, no surprise there

[Roy Badami]

As to technological unemployment, it is indeed a good thing. Nay, a fantastic thing. A world without a demand for anyone to work except those who are highly technically skilled would clearly be a world of plenty.

With our market economy as it stands, the world you describe would be a world of plenty for the technologists only.  The masses, whose labour would no longer be needed, would have no money with which to buy these plentiful goods.

Just think about it: no one needs anything non-technical done; that means no non-technical need is going unfulfilled: no one is hungry, because if there were any shortage of food there would be demand for farmers.

Needs would still go unfilled, because people without jobs would not have the money to pay for them.

That would be paradise, a situation where you don't need to work at all and you can still experience a higher standard of living than you do now.

The question that has intriqued me for some time is how we transition from a market economy to the paradise you describe.  Because although the paradise you describe is one possible future, another is that only the 0.01% who are needed to maintain the machines live in a paradise, and the remaining 99.99% are destitute.

roy

[Roy Badami]

Or put another way.  The market economy (or indeed all economies, as we understand the term) are all about managing scarce resources.

No one has yet figured out how to organise society when the main task is to manage plentiful resources.

EDIT: Indeed, the reason that money has to exist is ulimately as an arbiter of who gets access to what share of resources, given there isn't enough to just say that everyone can have as much as he or she wants.  If we ever lived in a society where scarcity of resources ceased to be a significant determinant of what we can do, then it seems likely that money would take on a very different role, if it existed at all.

[dnaleor]

I have a shitty blackberry and I never make calls, I only use Whatsapp so I pay about 6€ monthly for my contract. I don't smoke, drink or go out partying. I barely go out because I can't pay for the train to begin with.

So like I said, my only scape that I see right now, realistically, is if Bitcoin goes much higher in the next 10 years. So unless this was it and the big gains already happened, im pretty much fucked, unless totally out of my control lucky events unfold.

I have a dozen vacancies available in my hotel in Estonia. It doesn't look like your quality of life would suffer even if you became our room cleaner. You would get paid 400 euros/month + bed. Food is cheap and wifi included. Our business center has a computer with 15" monitor. You would mainly interact with btc people in all levels 10, 100, 1000, 10000 btc, including devs. Caught stealing => instant dismissal. Caught lying => one warning. Caught being lazy doing appointed tasks => two warnings. Possibility to advance in the career up to hotel manager level. Hotel manager gets about 4000 euros + perks.

This is open for everyone, I will later post the details about employee levels, work tasks and compensation scheme.

A true equal opportunity, rags to riches thing reminiscient of the 1880s, which coincidentally was the latest golden age in the castle also

hmmm, interesting!
looking for (automation) industrial engineers?

[rpietila]

hmmm, interesting!
looking for (automation) industrial engineers?

Looking for people who can obey orders, smile, clean rooms, serve tables, cook, know wines, stand long hours in scorching sun, nitpick about petty amounts, do gardening, smile, drive cars, furnish rooms, clean toilets, empty trashbins, greet guests, empty ashtrays, water lawns, sell wines, do the laundry, smile, answer repetitious questions, clean floors, obey orders and smile.

Oh yes, and the starting pay is bad but the range goes up to 4000€/month.

As we are an equal opportunity employer, being an industrial engineer is not a disqualifier.

[fonsie]

I can do all of those, but it seems there's a lot of smiling involved, so gonna have to pass on this one 

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

As to technological unemployment, it is indeed a good thing. Nay, a fantastic thing. A world without a demand for anyone to work except those who are highly technically skilled would clearly be a world of plenty.

With our market economy as it stands, the world you describe would be a world of plenty for the technologists only.  The masses, whose labour would no longer be needed, would have no money with which to buy these plentiful goods.

Keep track of the timeframes. The economy as it stands is not yet one without any demand for non-technical work. Do you think people 200 years ago could feed a family (not to mention having a TV, smartphone, Internet, running water, electricity, etc.) by working a cash register? By standing outside holding a sign? By pouring drinks in a bar?

The trend is so blindingly obvious that it scarcely warrants mention: unskilled labor gets easier and easier (hard/dangerous/dirty labor gets paid more), and the wages received buy a dramatically greater standard of living. When we add in technological innovations that further save on the labor that is otherwise necessary for basic living - such as washing dishes, bailing water from a well (to say nothing of digging and maintaining the well) - the argument becomes several times more striking. To paraphrase Tom Woods, a few hundred years ago kings still had to crap in a bucket and throw it out the window. What is considered living below the poverty line now, in the USA for instance, is a life that in many ways would make the royalty of past generations envious.

Just like most people in first-world countries (third-world countries are third-world because they're much farther from the "problem" of technological unemployment) can get by now working a low-wage part-time job if they don't mind having no electricity or running water, in the future you'll be able to get by on a low-wage part-time job if you don't mind living exactly as you are now.

In the event that technology ever advances so incredibly far that you only need to work a few minutes a week, or basically not at all (say you get enough just by allowing your habits to be benignly monitored for science or whatever), in order to get enough money to pay for everything you want, that will clearly be a very nice situation. Again, keep track of the time. This is an extreme future scenario, but it is the (glorious, wonderful) endpoint of the trend that is causing such needless concern.

[JayJuanGee]

hmmm, interesting!
looking for (automation) industrial engineers?

Looking for people who can obey orders, smile, clean rooms, serve tables, cook, know wines, stand long hours in scorching sun, nitpick about petty amounts, do gardening, smile, drive cars, furnish rooms, clean toilets, empty trashbins, greet guests, empty ashtrays, water lawns, sell wines, do the laundry, smile, answer repetitious questions, clean floors, obey orders and smile.

Oh yes, and the starting pay is bad but the range goes up to 4000€/month.

As we are an equal opportunity employer, being an industrial engineer is not a disqualifier.

here's my application   "                                                "

[scorchingsun]

hmmm, interesting!
looking for (automation) industrial engineers?

Looking for people who can obey orders, smile, clean rooms, serve tables, cook, know wines, stand long hours in scorching sun, nitpick about petty amounts, do gardening, smile, drive cars, furnish rooms, clean toilets, empty trashbins, greet guests, empty ashtrays, water lawns, sell wines, do the laundry, smile, answer repetitious questions, clean floors, obey orders and smile.

Oh yes, and the starting pay is bad but the range goes up to 4000€/month.

As we are an equal opportunity employer, being an industrial engineer is not a disqualifier.

I don't want anyone to stand long hours in me! 

[criptix]

As to technological unemployment, it is indeed a good thing. Nay, a fantastic thing. A world without a demand for anyone to work except those who are highly technically skilled would clearly be a world of plenty.

With our market economy as it stands, the world you describe would be a world of plenty for the technologists only.  The masses, whose labour would no longer be needed, would have no money with which to buy these plentiful goods.

Keep track of the timeframes. The economy as it stands is not yet one without any demand for non-technical work. Do you think people 200 years ago could feed a family (not to mention having a TV, smartphone, Internet, running water, electricity, etc.) by working a cash register? By standing outside holding a sign? By pouring drinks in a bar?

The trend is so blindingly obvious that it scarcely warrants mention: unskilled labor gets easier and easier (hard/dangerous/dirty labor gets paid more), and the wages received buy a dramatically greater standard of living. When we add in technological innovations that further save on the labor that is otherwise necessary for basic living - such as washing dishes, bailing water from a well (to say nothing of digging and maintaining the well) - the argument becomes several times more striking. To paraphrase Tom Woods, a few hundred years ago kings still had to crap in a bucket and throw it out the window. What is considered living below the poverty line now, in the USA for instance, is a life that in many ways would make the royalty of past generations envious.

Just like most people in first-world countries (third-world countries are third-world because they're much farther from the "problem" of technological unemployment) can get by now working a low-wage part-time job if they don't mind having no electricity or running water, in the future you'll be able to get by on a low-wage part-time job if you don't mind living exactly as you are now.

In the event that technology ever advances so incredibly far that you only need to work a few minutes a week, or basically not at all (say you get enough just by allowing your habits to be benignly monitored for science or whatever), in order to get enough money to pay for everything you want, that will clearly be a very nice situation. Again, keep track of the time. This is an extreme future scenario, but it is the (glorious, wonderful) endpoint of the trend that is causing such needless concern.

i totaly agree to this, but have to add that we still have quite a long way until then.
also what you describe is just one side of the coin.
if humanity is able to replace themself with robots or something similiar to do all nessecary work, you can easily imagine the 0,01% at the top wiping out the other 99,99% at the bottom.

there are people that just dont like to share