@jjg..I discussed a potential future strategy, albeit if you back-test it to what happened before, you would see how successful it would have been. Duh!
I only had small sells here and there, that is true, but it does not not mean that I won't sell a larger % in the future (2023-2025).

Honestly, i was expecting bitcoin to moderate in this cycle and it did so on the upside (only 3.2X vs prior cycle's 17X between two ATHs), but NOT the downside (a smallish difference of -77.5% vs prior 84%). I know what was the reason: leverage, bad macro, etc., but still...

We shall see how the next cycle transpires...everybody seem to be confused with diametrically opposite opinions: anything from a deep freeze and flat btc to some exorbitant numbers.
Honestly, I am VERY surprised that the economy is able to perform quite well so far with rates being so high (and going higher).

DCA is a lazy method.

From all prior halvings and ATH here is a potential trading strategy:

1. ATH occurs at 1year-1.5 year after halving (in 2021 the double top was almost identical at ~1 year and 1.5 year).
2. Bitcoin bottoms occur after at least 80% decline from the ATH (happened 3 times, with just a slight decrease in % each time: 94,87, 84% decline).
The current cycle low was at about 77.5%.

Therefore, a "simple" trading strategy: sell at around 1-1.5 years after the halving (when prior exponent would start stalling). How to choose 1 year vs 1.5 year: sell when 30 day increase is at or more than 100% and we are around 1 year or 1.5 year interval post halving, then either buy a bunch at -75% or split into thirds and buy 1/3 at -70%, 1/3 at -75%, 1/3 at -80%. If the third point would not happen-buy something nice instead, like a car, vacation or a house (depending on your cap gains from the top). Don't chase.

Re WC in 2026: 75% of it would be in US, 12.5% both Canada and Mexico: 60 matches vs 10 and 10.
If still around, i will try to get tickets to a few matches.
A good excuse to travel too.
BTW, world cup is coming sooner than usual because it would shift back to the summer time, so 3.5 years instead of usual 4.

Re btc ATH: sorry, no way in Q1 of 2023, but could get to 40-50K during Q2-Q3.
ATH most likely during Q4 of 2024 or even later.
All of that on the condition that macro cooperates.

It's too bad that one of these two teams had to lose.
Great game.

For the discussion above, i would posit that the number of truly "existing" bitcoins in the circulation is an unknowable number.
Yes, we know how many were "issued" aka mined, but all we know are UTXOs.
We don't know if the last "owner" lost his/her key or not BEFORE they either sign the next txn or sign the message with the address signature.

btw...who is the dude on the right? Jenny was much prettier before too. Time does not play nice with anyone, sadly.

with many tech companies firing skilled people all at once, situation might become difficult.
META alone was letting go of something like 10K, which, i assume, at least in part are skilled programmers making at least 200K/year or even more.
It looks like we are at the cusp of UE rate to go up. Typically, bear market ends almost exactly at the top of UE rate, but, of course, nobody ever knows where that top would be. From prior recessions it could be anywhere from 6 to 10%, which is a long way to go, albeit it is a lagging indicator.

Dude...people here don't like when someone posts an unnecessary gigantic image.
How to deal: look at my quote of your image by simply replying to it...you will see that i added: width=300 (could be 300, 400 or 500) just after the word "img".
Most here would be grateful if you do it going forward.

Otherwise, nice post!

Not touching my long bitcoin...but, sometimes you get a home-run and sometimes just a single/double...
Got a bunch of cap gains this year and took small losses to partially offset those gains. A bit more to take in a week or so.

A safe (in comparison to others) Treasury money market fund gives 4% divvy/interest, soon will be 5%-will have a bunch of cash coming in monthly next year-would allow a major DCA if I would go this route. Imho, money market is preferable to i-bonds philip touts because money there is liquid-I can switch out and into stocks or bitcoin within 24Hr (stocks) and maybe 48hr for bitcoin en masse, if conditions would warrant. Once we get to 5% short term rates, I might switch to maybe 2 year Treasuries because of a price appreciation possibility.

A. Hayes uses Treasuries...read his "PEMDAS" blog entry.
https://blog.bitmex.com/pemdas/

yeah...Is it going to be more like 2018 or more like early 2015?
One thing, though...next ATH would probably be 10-11X of that bottom IF the pattern holds.
btw, stonks are now bent on forcing fed's hands earlier than expected.

Check out this ratatouille-type article:

https://slate.com/technology/2022/12/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-bitcoin-vs-crypto.html

...mixed together a bunch of different opinions.
Is this how non-AI journo's are writing these days?
One thing is for sure..he/she thinks that if something goes temporarily down in price, then it means that it's ideas are inferior/terrible.
Gawd.

my take:

btc either already bottomed or might do so by March.
Somewhere during q1 we will get a large surprise in inflation (on the downside).
Stocks would initially crash fearing deflation and interest rates being too high.
Fed will dilly dally for a month or so, then succumb and cut short term rates (Cramer would be screaming on CNBC again how "they just don't get it").
Of course, before doing so they would declare victory, alas, markets would respond to the cut with a ferocious downswing that would indicate that Fed was wrong again and raised too much.
Bottom by Q2 in equities (bitcoin flat), then a gigantic rally in "everything" with bitcoin going up at least 2-3X (from today's prices).
After that...hard to say.

Nice graph, but, imho, TA would be of less value in the next period.
Volatility in the markets is increasing (and rightfully so). Three mo ago DXY was at 114, now at around 104, indices are going up and down 600-800 points a day in a random fashion.
My feel is that macro is driving prices now: there are larger factors involved in comparison with our usual dynamics.
My feel is that in the next 12-18 mo the price of bitcoin will be completely random inasmuch as a fluctuation between 15 (hopefully, not below) and 50K.

in plaid you give them your bank account login and password...this is crazy and I am not sure if it is even legal (it shouldn't be).
I also got Coinbase email.
Unfortunately, Kraken doesn't do ACH in NY and Texas, otherwise, I would say: Kraken (albeit some said that they also use plaid for something).
One possible solution: Chase, PNC and Capital One don't use plaid.
I intent on waiting until Jan 9 reset, then see if i can choose not to use plaid with the current bank account.
If not, I will look at other options.
BTW, someone mentioned that if you activate 2FA on the bank account, plaid cannot work, so I surmise that it would be logical to provide an alternative venue.

Have any of you seen this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1JlnjY4d4c

Bewildering to say the least.
Among witnesses: two were at least in part rational thinkers (O'Leary and a female from the Cato Instutute).
The other two-complete blabbering 'tools'.

In addition..my gawd...these are our Senators [a couple were OK, with the rest... 'you name it' ]?
What does this say about the electorate?

Tooomey!
At least one person knows what he is talking about.
O'Leary is OK too...first woman, though, is "something", second female (from Cato) makes some good points so far.
...and who is this last guy? A f-g actor?

SBF's opinion about himself and FTX:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevenehrlich/2022/12/13/exclusive-transcript-the-full-testimony-sbf-planned-to-give-to-congress/

US authorities allegations:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wildest-parts-bankman-fried-sec-133233940.html


->North Dimension, then Alameda, then poof...
I read both...amazingly, he rails against CEO Ray, saying that he made everything worse and, basically, has no authority since FTX is a bahamian company...geez.
The description of indictment looks ominous at the first glance.

Creates more money? How?
As far as viewership, I am sure that it would be expanded the most if Morocco makes it to the final, not that I expect it.
Africa+Middle East is 1.8-1.9 bil people and Europe would watch it anyway...well, maybe less if it would be Morocco-Argentina.
Most are probably expecting Argentina-France.
Croatia is incredible, though..for a small country to make it twice in a row to semis and at least once to final is amazing.

btw, i learned something during the last two days...Bitfury CEO (he used to be the OCC controller) said: "they don't want to have regulation as to not provide legitimacy", yet they are complaining themselves about the lack of regulation..and even more, some cranky c-man recently said, as he put it: "after 14 years, it is time for the blockchain to show what it can do". Basically, put a piece of wood through the wheel and then complain that the bicycle "ain't working".

"a very small group of grossly inexperienced and unsophisticated individuals".


the coin is up, though.

wait, didn't he suppose to testify tomorrow? /s

yeah, about that...I wouldn't be so categorical.
However, we are, apparently, scraping the Metcalf's law lower bound:
https://dailyhodl.com/2022/12/12/ex-goldman-sachs-executive-says-bitcoin-and-ethereum-flashing-historic-signal-as-central-banks-prepare-to-reverse-policy/

^only btc part pertains to discussions here.