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1421  Other / Meta / Re: Bitcoin adoption, the forum and past two bear markets on: December 04, 2022, 08:54:33 AM
You don't need internet archives for this, updates are frequently posted in the topic itself.
Yeah I knew that @ralle14 usually makes weekly updated tables and @Mitchell uses it to update OP of that thread. In addition, @Mitchell frequently (after a few months or one year ?) will ask moderators to split that thread, move old pages to Archive or Trash can.

Snapshots in OP don't reflect all bad things with campaigns in 2019 when some long-lasting and high-paid campaigns stopped such as Bitsler, Yolodice, FortuneJack, BitDice.

In general, I don't waste my time to check all pages in that topic to retrospectively look at past campaigns. With the objective of this topic, I only need a few snapshots from Wayback Machine, for an overview with another viewpoint about Bitcoin adoption and its impact on forum signature campaigns Smiley
1422  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: 7 Rules for Writing a Good Post Title on: December 04, 2022, 05:42:32 AM

If you search, you can find those topics so let me share, [Guide] Searching effectively.
1423  Other / Meta / Re: Bitcoin adoption, the forum and past two bear markets on: December 04, 2022, 04:49:52 AM
I believe adding a summary for the total budget used on each campaign will help us to understand how much company willing to risk on marketing despite a bad market for them. I’m interested to know if they increase or decrease their rate and budget allocation base on the current market condition.
I know that but I won't spend my time to check each campaign in the past and calculate their max budget for each week and make a sum max budget for all active campaigns each week.

I shared in OP that in the past, there are less total spots for each campaign and as you can see in screenshots, their payrates were lower than nowadays campaigns too. You can make a rough estimation and obviously, nowadays we have increases of both total active campaigns and total max budget from all campaigns each week.

Can some bored data expert create a chart that plots the correlation between bitcoin price(or crypto total mcap), number of signature campaign participants, and forum activity? This is probably too much to ask but yea lol.
I won't go to make it but you can use my past charts from Forum's 2020 year-end report

I think a lot of this has been caused by the value of bitcoin and cryptos going up though too as companies can afford higher USD pay rates a lot of the time for their participants.
I meant there are more companies accepted Bitcoin as their payment methods and they have more users who use cryptocurrency exclusively Bitcoin. Then they decided to run their signature campaigns in the forum and more positively, they open more max spots in their campaigns as well as increase pay rates for their participants.

Good one, btw would love to see more historic data if someone is ready to spend more time on this, like from 2014 to 2018. Wink
If you are interested in more snapshots, you can check it with Wayback Machine (link is given in OP).

The topic objective is to compare between two bear markets so I won't derail from it.
1424  Other / Meta / Bitcoin adoption, the forum and past two bear markets on: December 04, 2022, 02:09:16 AM
  • If we are Bitcoiners, we should know about Bitcoin Talk forum.
  • If we are Bitcoiners, we should do care about Bitcoin adoption because with bigger adoption, demands will become higher while supply is the same or even less (with more bitcoins will be lost over years).

Today, during the weekend I have spare time and make this topic with following objectives


2018 - 2019 bear market
  • 2018: No snapshot from Wayback Machine
  • 2019: 2 snapshots from Wayback Machine on 28 January 2019 and 26 June 2019

28 January 2019
Link: https://web.archive.org/web/20190130063829/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=615953.0

26 June 2019
Link: https://web.archive.org/web/20190628000202/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=615953.0


2022 bear market
Two snapshots on 14 May 2022 and 14 November 2022
Additionally, you can check its lively thread

14 May 2022
Link: https://web.archive.org/web/20220521040338/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=615953.0


14 November 2022
Link: https://web.archive.org/web/20221125003945/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=615953.0

Summary:
  • 28 Jan 2019: 15 campaigns
  • 16 June 2019: 15 campaigns
  • 14 May 2022: 19 campaigns
  • 14 November 2022: 22 campaigns

Only looking at total active campaigns, we easily see increasing numbers that can be a signal of more companies accept Bitcoin and some of them bring their companies to the forum to advertise here.

However, it is not enough if we only look at that tip of iceberg. Checking further with total available spots for each campaign and total active campaigns, you can see the more significant increases of 2022 campaigns compare to 2019 campaigns.

I don't show you detailed figures about that but I was in 2019 bear market and can tell you that back in the year, each campaign usually has about 10 or 15 total spots. It is very different than in this year 2022, we have many campaigns with 40, 50 or 60 available spots (exclusively Hero / Legendary members, not yet count about lower ranks).

It somewhat shows that companies in 2022 bear market are ready to spend significant bigger budgets to promote their companies and services on Bitcoin Talk forum. Somewhat it reflects the Bitcoin adoption that helps those companies have more users and obviously more income.
1425  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Candidates for the WORLD CUP 2022 Winner on: December 03, 2022, 11:29:32 AM
I see Argentina from the title they won at the 2021 Copa America, they are also currently an unbeaten team for about 32 matches, then Brazil they also have the best players
Argentina and Brazil always are one of best candidates for World Cup title. It is not different in the tournament this year and it's special for Argentina as they just had a unbeaten streak and came very closely to break the current one holds by Italy. Eventually they failed by a shocked defeat with Saudi Arabia. This tournament is special for them because of two more reasons:
  • They won a first title with Messi in Coppa America and it is a first title for Argentina after many years too.
  • It can be a last World Cup for Messi.

Brazil are strong too but the injury of Neymar and some swing defenders can impact them in rest of this tournament.

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My Germans too, they are very excited and confident as well as the players, Germany also has top players who can make it to the semi-finals, England also cannot be underestimated in this world cup.
Germany is a good example that from theory to realistic, things can be very different. Germany was considered as one of strongest team this year and they can win or fail but was out after only three matches is unbelievable.
1426  Economy / Gambling / Re: Livecasino.io - 🔥 up to 20% cashback🔥up to 20% rakeback 🚨 instant withdrawals on: December 03, 2022, 11:14:00 AM
At Livecasino along with Bitcasino, you can check the live RTP of the game during the last 24 hours, week and month, and there is a dedicated page with the highest current live RTP percentages and the lowest ones. https://livecasino.io/live-rtp
Other things I learned from you about Livecasino.io as well as Bitcasino.io. I also know that these three casinos belong to same owners: Livecasino.io, Bitcasino.io and Sporstbet.io.

If two casinos have that page, how about Sportsbet.io?

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So if you believe in this hypothesis, it would be interesting to try to play to the games with the highest live RTPs during one month for example and to see if your PnL has been good or bad at the end.
It's obviously that I believe in this hypothesis because it makes a lot of sense and looks very logical.

Testing with small bets but with high frequencies and big total number of bet are great to testing this hypothesis. In addition, it takes time too because we should test it a few months to have enough sample size.

This hypothesis can be true at the moment but can be changed later if casino changes their management. Nothing last forever and we must adapt to lively changes.
1427  Other / Meta / Re: Complete overview of users on DT1 and DT2 and their ratings on: December 03, 2022, 04:03:01 AM
By the way I wanted to comment that I have seen that he has a negative feedback left by Michail1 which is very long. Recently I tried to leave a very long feedback and it wouldn't let me, I got a message saying I had to shorten it.
Honestly, it is unnecessary and if it is allowed, it turns to be really annoying in my opinion.

There are two main parts:
- Feedback description: that is should be short enough, like an abstract. It does not need to be too long because we don't need a letter of feedback.
- Feedback reference: that is where you can leave more details like create a topic, collect information there and mark it as reference for your feedback.

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Is there a way to leave very long feedbacks?
You can not leave more than 600-charactered feedback now.

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Or in the case of that feeback is it because before it was allowed and now it is not? The feedback in question is from 2015.
It was allowed in the past, before this change in 2019
OK, new limits:
 - You can't give more than 5 ratings to a single user.
 - Your total sent ratings is limited to three times your activity, but at least 1.
 - The comment length is limited to 600 characters, but each newline counts as 120 characters.

I can miss something and don't know all about the forum but I tried to collect historic changes of the forum in my topic that is available for you and everyone to step by and check anytime.  Cheesy
1428  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Generated wallet on a computer that I need to return. on: December 02, 2022, 02:34:19 PM
I just realized that I could easily move the entire bitcoin balance to a different wallet whose seed was generated on a different cold machine to be completely safe and then return the computer in question (after factory reset of course).
It is a good preventive solution. When you feel unsafe with your device and your coins are still in that wallet, you should move your coins to a new wallet. Remember, a new wallet, not a new address!

You can sweep too
1429  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 15M BTC goes into self custody on: December 02, 2022, 02:18:58 PM
I believe the rumor part is the only reason why people are panic withdrawing their coins from centralized exchanges otherwise events similar to FTX have happened in the past and the users reaction weren't like this. But the fact that media and some "celebrities" got behind the story that others are also insolvent got them moving.
Rumor, level of total capital evaporated in FTX collapse and the very short time of the exchange collapse make people superb panic.

I could be wrong because I did not experience past collapses (I only join cryptocurrency market in 2017) but for me, this collapse makes some records for fastest collapse within 2 days and total capital lost on FTX itself as well as impacts on some related cryptocurrency companies in FTX network.

People don't change and they will send their coins to exchanges again when panic gone.
1430  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA 2022 world cup on: December 02, 2022, 01:44:56 PM
in front of the line or behind the line ? that was the big question yesterday at the world cup. when you see this photo, everyone thinks the ball was behind the line.
or am i seeing it wrong ? but maybe a few millimetres are missing . but never mind.
First, to have best view for such situation, we should see it with a bird-eye view and that image is not from a bird-eye view.
Second, if we apply technology, we should believe in it. Nothing is perfect and a semi-automated offline detection technology is not perfect but it is useful and if there are drawbacks, it will be improved in future.

The match already ended, result is final so it's time to move on.

Quote
denmark gone, yesterday germany gone, belgium gone ,mexico gone , and today another co-favourite ?
Uruguay might be another big team will be out. In this World Cup, Uruguay have very bad attacking because old strikers like Suarez, Cavani can not play well and a young striker Darwin Nunez can not replace them well.
1431  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Phase two(2) : Bitcoin Promotion and Adoption in my locality. on: December 02, 2022, 01:38:38 PM
To use Bitcoin as a payment method like what you and your locals are doing, it makes sense to remind you and your friends remember to use non custodial wallets such as Electrum wallet to use.

Because you will easily to make transaction with very cheap transaction fee less than $0.1 per transaction (assume you use high fee rate). It is good about transaction fee but also makes sense because you will not have to rely on centralized exchanges. They usually charge you very expensive withdrawal fee (if you don't use feature to send internal like Binance) and centralized exchanges can scam anytime.

References for exchange withdrawal fee
1432  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2022/23 on: December 01, 2022, 10:29:40 AM
No worries guys , Mbappe is still young and have plenty of time to switch to Real in the next years even if Florentino said that Mbappe is no longer a key transfer to Real Madrid , I'm sure he lied but I'm also sure that Vini Jr and Rodrygo could fill his place for a couple of years.
Mbappe did response very bad and unacceptable after he failed to move to Real Madrid, signed a new contract with PSG with some promised high privileges. After staying in Paris, he felt that these promises were not kept by PSG and shown his bad behavior that impacts impression of Perez about Mbappe.

Real Madrid have Vinicius and Rodrygo and if we compare Vinicius with Mbappe, I don't see much difference between them. Vinicius has good speed but he is better than Mbappe because he is more ready to contribute to a club's system operation and does not have problem to support other players. With this attitude, Vinicius is more useful for Real Madrid than Mbappe.

Rodrygo has good growth in the past season but he must keep it up and improve more to reach to a level of Vinicius, not yet mention about a level of Mbappe. Similar to Vinicius, Rodrygo is helpful for Los Blancos too because of his friendly attitude.
1433  Economy / Gambling / Re: Rollbit.com | Crypto's Most Rewarding Casino 👑 on: December 01, 2022, 10:19:04 AM
This is their business marketing strategy that they will always show you big wins but that doesn't mean they are fake and if you take it too seriously and bet aggressively in hope of earning lot of profits same to that then you can loose the amount which is wrong.
You only know you can win big with high multiplier or not if you practice betting with high risk and high chance to win big. Although, big wins are not common, a more important point is if you win either small or big and want to submit a withdrawal request, a legit casino will approve your request and process it for you.

Rollbit has good reputation and I am not doubtful about their legitimacy at all.

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So always bet in your limits and if you are lucky small bets of $1 or even lower can turn into big amount with high multipliers.So don't get away with these things and have self control in gambling which will keep you alive financially.
Chasing with high multipliers and have big wins can make you satisfied a bit but at the end of a day, your net result, win or lose is more important than whether within that day you have a big win or big loss. Because after all, will you go to bankruptcy or maintain your initial capital as well as have a minor or good increase of it.
1434  Economy / Gambling / Re: Livecasino.io - 🔥 up to 20% cashback🔥up to 20% rakeback 🚨 instant withdrawals on: December 01, 2022, 02:15:56 AM
It’s working for me this method that’s I always play what’s hot and avoid old games that doesn’t have any players using it. I get this idea after reading a topic here on the forum on gambling discussion board about the best time to play slot. I’m still new on slot games and I’m not that expert to begin with. This is only my personal opinion based on my result.
Interesting about slot games!

Gambling means odds of losing and winning but by understanding comprehensively about operations of casinos - how they set up and reset their prize pools for slot games and when they usually do that; most crowded hours on that casino when they have most gamblers actively bet. Slot gamblers can increase their probability to win or even win big if they make bets around end of a month and within most crowded hours on a specific casino.

Each casino has different customer distribution geographically so that their most active hours would be different too.
1435  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Why everybody is panicking ? Its a game of greed and fear ! on: December 01, 2022, 02:05:20 AM
We can’t really avoid from getting panicked anytime without warning. It really depends on each other’s financial situation, and timers and experts aren’t exempted from that.
As human instinct, we all will be panic if things go different than what we thought and worse if things can lead to forced liquidations, bankruptcy by our bad decisions. The level of panic would be higher if a potential loss is bigger and its impact on our lives is more seriously.

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Most of us especially the newbies and beginners are prone to having panics while the market goes down and/or getting scammed or hacked. It’s all about understanding how the market works and accept the fact that there are no promises or astronomical guaranteed returns by just treating what we spent as “dead money”.
Newbies and beginners are most vulnerable people in the market because they are lack of knowledge and experience. Times, experience and learned-lessons from own loses can help them to grow up and to become better versions of themselves.

When they have more comprehensive knowledge, more experience and better ability to control their fear and greed, they will have less odds to be panic.

I do agree that there is a risk involved when you are trading in futures, but if you move to spot then you wouldn't have that much trading problems. It has a lot less risks, and moves usually within 10-20% ranges when it goes down and that should be easily recoverable in the long distance.
The beauty of Spot trading is even if you make mistake with a wrong entry and if you don't cut loss, you are still able to hold your asset and wait for recovery or a new bull run. Here I am talking about Bitcoin which is a safest cryptocurrency to invest in.

With Leverage (Margin) trading or Future trading, if you make mistake and don't cut loss, in worst case you will be forced liquidated by exchanges.

Please look at the Fear and Greed Index chart and tell me, is it a good period to be greed or fearful?

1436  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: In the eyes of Sam himself, he is so innocent on: December 01, 2022, 01:54:52 AM
It might not be his exact intention to defraud people but that's what he's actually doing.
As an owner of a cryptocurrency exchange, with many trading types: Spot, Margin, Future and more, Sam Bankman-Fried should know very well about mechanisms to liquidate FTX users' collateral. That is not much different than mechanisms of forced liquidation on other exchanges and similar to bank liquidation too.

Sum up, he should know very well about extremely high risk of using FTT token as collateral for his company loan. He can not say he did not know about that risk and is innocent.

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He might not really be thinking of taking people's money away, but that's basically what it means when he made huge withdrawals of his users' money and moved them to Alameda, donated to politicians, squandered on expensive properties in the Bahamas, gave away to his parents for them to splurge, lend to some companies, and so on.

Sam Bankman-Fried probably didn't think of running away with his users' money, but his irresponsibility, his childish financial management, is equally damaging. 
Think or not think to run away with customer money, it is not a matter.  A serious matter is he and his colleagues used customer money without any inform to them and any permission from their customers. That is enough to be called as guilty but worse they used such capital for their own benefits (buying expensive real estates, building up their reputation with politicians, etc.). All of these were not done for benefit of FTX customers at any scale.
1437  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: FIFA 2022 world cup on: November 30, 2022, 02:13:46 PM
Having Poland with 4pts Argentina with 3pts Saudi Arabia 3pts and Mexico with 1pts, the game between Poland vs Argentina is going to be a cracker because both teams need the winning to qualify to the next round. I think they'll share the point, it will be a draw. Argentina need to top the group so as Poland, that's to say a winning must come in play but is something I don't think will happen, if it plays out to be a draw I see Mexico to get a win against Saudi Arabia and the table will be like
All teams still have their chances to end in a first two positions and both last matches are important for all. Argentina must win Poland if they don't want to bet that they will get a lucky ticket from Mexico. Poland with their players, will very hard to beat Argentina unless Argentina suicide in the match.

Saudi Arabia will not likely to have 3 points from Mexico and they will even have a loss and at the end, they might have similar ending like Iran yesterday.

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Poland with 5pts
Argentina with 4pts
Mexico with 4pts
Saudi Arabia with 3pts...
Interesting table but I believe Argentina and Messi will secure their chance by themselves with three points from Poland and that looks like a bad ending for Poland and Lewandowski in this group.

Both Poland and Argentina often find it difficult to score goals or get deadlocks more often and therefore, in this decisive match it looks like Poland will take advantage of the situation to defend well.
Both teams don't want to fail in this match because if they fail, they will face with a very bad ending after all in this group. One point is better than a lose at any goal difference so I am sure they will begin this match with very high careful approach.

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Although indeed, on paper at least Argentina has a better chance of winning and considering the predictions above, it seems that the victory obtained for one of these teams might only be a narrow victory, for example 1-0 or maybe 2-0.

But I also bet for Argentina and I still got odds @1.48 on stake.com a few hours ago, but now the odds have dropped and maybe with the lowered odds it looks like Argentina will indeed win.
Argentina have more good attacking players than Poland especially Messi who can decide a match with either one shot (like a goal he scored in a match with Mexico) or opportunities he can support his team mates. If a match result simply depends on odds on sportsbook, gamblers should win a lot but I agree with you that Argentina have more chance to win this match.
1438  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] ✰ PAXFUL.COM ✰ - peer to peer marketplace to buy/sell bitcoin on: November 30, 2022, 12:51:05 PM
I got a screenshot from a Paxful user who owe me money showing a payment/withdrawal to my wallet. I am waiting for two days for this payment which is waiting in queue. It is 99% sure that the screenshot is fake.
Did you receive that payment?

On Paxful, you have two options to send your coins to another user.
  • Sending it to their receiving address
  • Sending it by Paxful user.

Send Bitcoin and Tether With Ease Using Paxful Usernames. This feature was launched two years ago.

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The sender pretends email verification of this payment is still required and he is in trouble with that (while the screenshot says "in queue" and not "waiting for email verification").
I did not witness too long Withdrawal approval and at the time you wrote your post, it is already two days that are long and strange.

How to Contact Support. In case you need to contact support, you can create your support ticket.
1439  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: Pros and Cons of Bitcoin Node types (Full node and Prune node) on: November 30, 2022, 12:34:43 PM
Time flies so fast and after about 3 years, Bitcoin blockchain size increases from less than 300 GB to 440.43 GB at 29 November 2022 according to ycharts.com

If you want to run a full node, a hard disk (should be HDD, not SSD) with free space about 500 GB or more is recommended.

1440  Other / Meta / Re: Connection reset during post thread/reply causes entire post to be lost. on: November 30, 2022, 12:21:44 PM
Go to your Profile > Look and Layout Preferences > tick Don't warn on new replies made while posting.
Thank you for the guide which I forgot that it is available in Profile settings but it does not solve my issue which was misunderstood by you.

I meant that lately if I am composing my post and someone else makes their posts in the meantime, when I click on Post button, I will get that warning (that is very normal, it is here for years already) and I can not publish my post (that is something new and occurred recent weeks).

Not only me but FatFork confirmed it below too.

This happens a lot on Tor lately. I found it useful to have the bitcointalk site open in another tab at the same time, and use the "New Circuit" function there. That way, you won't lose the post edit/create content in the first tab when you return to it again.

I use Tor, too. Have you tried CTRL+SHIFT+L (i.e. "New Circuit for this Site") as a workaround?

Let me try it next times when I get that error. Does it solve that problem for you guys?


I'm here from 2015 and after being on Bitcointalk for 7 years, there is still things that I can learn. Had no idea that such option exists.
If you did not touch it for months or years, you would forget about its existence, just like me.  Cheesy
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