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1) The Aug. 19th price dump correlated to the 100k btc movement from the wallet
2) the wallet started accruing coin early 2012, when the scam took off
3) seems like homeboy's scam was huge, the market absorbed the first 1M out of 5M it's gonna have to take on the chin
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What evidence? I must keep missing it.
The really huge ones: - There has never been an investment scheme that promises to pay this well that didn't turn out to be a ponzi. - Only one guy claims to have gotten 100 BTC 5+ days after he was supposed to start paying. Perhaps you are confusing evidence with proof? Evidence can be misleading. Someone stabs themselves and drops the bloody knife and I pick it up. Evidence points to me stabbing them. Thankfully, real judges and courts are not so ignorant as this community to judge so quickly. Matt, you always suggest the 0.00001% scenario when making the non-Ponzi argument. Stephen Hawkings TV special recently taught me about "best fit reality" - i.e. when I leave my office and come back in an hour, my chair is always in the same spot I left it - I assume it has been sitting there the whole time I was gone. But what if when I left my office, my chair opened the window and flew to the international space station then right before I get back in the room it flies back in, closes the window and returns to the exact same spot I left it an hour ago. Of course my "best fit reality" is that it just stayed there the whole time. 99.99999999999%+ the chair was just there the whole time, but I can never be certain, however I'd bet Matt an additional 500BTC on every trial of that too. If you want to go another 500BTC in, I'm game ^_^ ok, I'm in. I assume we are talking about Pirate, not my chair going to the ISS. I'll conf-post in the other thread or you can just do it / link to this acceptance Lol no not the chair going to ISS. -That- would be a gamble. Bet increase acknowledged. I feel the fact that I received this casino mailer today hurts my chances, helps Matt's side. Hopefully unrelated:  |
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possibly on topic, likely off, this casino mailer came in the mail today: |
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1) I read this entire thread. Who else assumes we are watching Pirate's wallet here?
2) BitcoinMax: $~150k coins? + private investors (I heard of 2x 25k coin private + a bunch of 5k 5k 5k 5k 5k 5k ones. who knows what this adds up to) + BurtW Pirate bonds + other pirate bonds... are we to think he had 500k coins AFTER all the interest he paid out? He must have scammed more, when the faucet was cut off it looks like he was owing around $50k USD per day in interest? maybe moar? Seems like it's at the top end of my early estimates: if he had 500k coins left after the 1/2 yr of interest, he could have had ~ 1M btc on the books in loans, ~70k/wk in headshot interest payments, it makes sense for him to cut it off now as there is no way he's getting that kind of investment or quelling that kind of withdraws each week.
Just starting to think it's a $10M Ponzi, not a $1M one.
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so it seems like he ended the BCST with ~ 500k hard BTC in a wallet. Now remember he paid a shit ton of interest, always depleting principal week after week - so that means he may have collected ~ 700k BTC and paid out ~200k BTC over time and is left with ~500k BTC.
I don't understand why you assume that it belongs to Pirate in the first place? If it does it would mean he actually has about the required amount to pay out, and he made it with pretty much all of the money he collected just sitting there doing nothing. That makes no sense. +1, this wallet is most likely mtgox cold wallet u know that makes a helluvalot more sense? I guess the .01337 + the binary in-wallet spam is just ppl lulzish-ly sending coins to it to spell something? if it's the Gox cold wallet why did it only start accumulating balance this year? |
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What evidence? I must keep missing it.
The really huge ones: - There has never been an investment scheme that promises to pay this well that didn't turn out to be a ponzi. - Only one guy claims to have gotten 100 BTC 5+ days after he was supposed to start paying. Perhaps you are confusing evidence with proof? Evidence can be misleading. Someone stabs themselves and drops the bloody knife and I pick it up. Evidence points to me stabbing them. Thankfully, real judges and courts are not so ignorant as this community to judge so quickly. Matt, you always suggest the 0.00001% scenario when making the non-Ponzi argument. Stephen Hawkings TV special recently taught me about "best fit reality" - i.e. when I leave my office and come back in an hour, my chair is always in the same spot I left it - I assume it has been sitting there the whole time I was gone. But what if when I left my office, my chair opened the window and flew to the international space station then right before I get back in the room it flies back in, closes the window and returns to the exact same spot I left it an hour ago. Of course my "best fit reality" is that it just stayed there the whole time. 99.99999999999%+ the chair was just there the whole time, but I can never be certain, however I'd bet Matt an additional 500BTC on every trial of that too. If you want to go another 500BTC in, I'm game ^_^ ok, I'm in. I assume we are talking about Pirate, not my chair going to the ISS. I'll conf-post in the other thread or you can just do it / link to this acceptance |
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I would prefer if this didn't go off topic. Where are the updates?
There are no updates. TADA back on topic. Well there is one update since yesterday: The amount owed by Pirate to his creditors has increased by another 5,000 BTC! If Pirates claim of 500K BTC is accurate that would mean he now owes ~540,000 BTC (minus the value of 11 unconfirmed "small accounts"). Also his interest only obligation is now ~$56,700 per day or $39.38 per minute. That means he needs to pay $56,7000 a day every day not to pay off the "investors", but to avoid the amount he owes from increasing. Yes his debt in in BTC but I am using USD because maybe that makes it more "real". So say today he paid back $25,000. The amount he owed would still be increasing. Even if you still believe he had a legit business which could afford $57,600 a day in interest, he shut it down a week ago. He nows owes about a half million USD more than when he shut it down. And remember, it's "at least" 500k BTC  ok so this keeps bothering me: since the shut down, everyone has been monitoring this wallet over in Speculation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=94675.0 looks to have acquired 500k+ btc after 2012 started, with a recent 100k shipment before the Gox market tanked from $14-> $7 -> $10 so it seems like he ended the BCST with ~ 500k hard BTC in a wallet. Now remember he paid a shit ton of interest, always depleting principal week after week - so that means he may have collected ~ 700k BTC and paid out ~200k BTC over time and is left with ~500k BTC. |
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We can all dream can't we?  Yup but when you start risking other people's money on your dreams prepare to get shit on in the forums (and in the real world). I have a dream! When all threads in all forums return over 1% per week. Where lending isn't judged by the content of it's character, but by the quality of their marijuana-based bullshit. I have a dream! When all lenders talk about how much they can make with "market arbitrage" and "loans and stuff" - and I have a dream when users willing to make up numbers and interest rates that make no traditional lending sense can rise up against the smart and calculating to finally overcome this FUD that has been keeping my people down for so long. I have a dream... |
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What evidence? I must keep missing it.
The really huge ones: - There has never been an investment scheme that promises to pay this well that didn't turn out to be a ponzi. - Only one guy claims to have gotten 100 BTC 5+ days after he was supposed to start paying. Perhaps you are confusing evidence with proof? Evidence can be misleading. Someone stabs themselves and drops the bloody knife and I pick it up. Evidence points to me stabbing them. Thankfully, real judges and courts are not so ignorant as this community to judge so quickly. Matt, you always suggest the 0.00001% scenario when making the non-Ponzi argument. Stephen Hawkings TV special recently taught me about "best fit reality" - i.e. when I leave my office and come back in an hour, my chair is always in the same spot I left it - I assume it has been sitting there the whole time I was gone. But what if when I left my office, my chair opened the window and flew to the international space station then right before I get back in the room it flies back in, closes the window and returns to the exact same spot I left it an hour ago. Of course my "best fit reality" is that it just stayed there the whole time. 99.99999999999%+ the chair was just there the whole time, but I can never be certain, however I'd bet Matt an additional 500BTC on every trial of that too. |
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I would prefer if this didn't go off topic. Where are the updates?
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I think it is high time for you to shut up and stop being part of the huge fraud most of us tried hard to protect people from.
In the name of Satoshi Nakamoto, "Keep your opinions, politics and religion out of my bitcoin". When people start talking about "protecting" me from things in Bitcoin, I can't help but equate it to the reasoning for Paypal holding my funds. Why dont you apply this to yourself and your actions, Matthew! Why are you so bent on censorship here? Do you realise what are you doing? Do I need to pay money entering some stupid bets to say anything on that forum that you do not agree with? Do you think it is wise to effectively make yourself part of a scam, no less after it has collapsed? Have you already forgotten as your silly arguments were utterly destroyed in another thread? Disgusting! The only thing disgusting is having to repeat myself. I'm not for censorship. You and anyone else are free to bark all day about what you think, but accusations, harassment, and defamation (example: THIS IS A PONZI) need to be backed up with evidence. If someone is quite sure of themselves, it's not a "gamble" to bet on what they say, it's just free money. I wonder how many times I'll have to repeat this. Do you think it is wise to effectively make yourself part of a scam, no less after it has collapsed?
What scam are you referring to and what exactly collapsed? When referencing it, please also show a link to the evidence of it both being a scam and having collapsed, thanks. On the off-chance you're referring to the whole Pirate thing, I'd like to remind the general public that you've declined to wager on it being a fraud or not. Seems strange for someone using such strong, serious and absolute wording. I understand that Matt's main point is "you guys cannot be totally sure that it's a Ponzi" I disagree. There is more than enough evidence to look at the program and say "This is Ponzi Scheme" - maybe the exact perfect definition is "With a 99.999999999999% degree of certainty I can say this is a Ponzi scheme" - I feel Matt would be more confident in the latter, but IMO it will take millions of lifetimes to average a not-a-scam, so we can just say "this is a fucking scam" and leave off the qualifiers. |
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Is there any truth to this? http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/yqvnt/sealswithclubs_is_incredibly_insecure_move_your/This is a fair warning. The software running the flash poker is fine but the php they wrote that hooks up is incredibly insecure. They don't validate or sanitize forums and I have already destroyed the administration backend and contaminated the database.
You can share in the fun, pass javascript code into the email field. <script>while(1);alert(document.cookie);</script>
Beyond all of this, I have root access (equiv for a windows box) and a copy of the wallet file. I'm giving everyone 24 hours to move their funds before I shut this site down. Freemoney is investigating this. It is hard for me believe that a guy decided to "copy the wallet file" but not immediately steal all the coins he could. I am on the site now and all seems normal. |
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really cool site. Just fired off .13 bitcoins. extremely simple, clean interface + love that it's 30 second anon account / pure bitcoin play.
glglgl
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OP brings up a good point about Pirate reducing his debt by buying up all the PPT bonds at 5% of their value - but those bonds are unfortunately the tip of the iceberg.
There are a handful of non-market driven debts that he has:
-- The "trust accounts" or large personal investors. I have heard rumors of 2x 25k BTC investors and many 5k btc.
-- The BitcoinMax accounts - likely 100k+ BTC there
It's too massive for payback, and there is no Pirate funds being made "tanking the market then buying back" and it's important to note that "arbitrage" would require a handful of Mt.Gox sized exchanges.
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Matt,
I understand if this is only for people hedging. I obviously have no exposure to BCST in any way.
I'd like to increase my wager to 500 BTC
17ByDBb93SP3guxJ7Sqcbz7peoaiBSkGdu
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Surprisingly hilarious. Thoroughly entertaining. Came for Matthew had to say, stayed for Crazier Matt. (Old man cranky call-in.)  Whenever you start echoing when you talk to a caller on the phone, ask the caller to mute the podcast or kill their speakers for the duration of the call. my show is run by 1 man. That echo is classic computer-listener echo - but there is one problem - Crazier Mike does not own a computer no clue why it echo'd so bad only when I was speaking. One for him, many calls from skype to other phones that show worked fine. I'm pretty sure he has a land line too. |
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