Martin Armstrong Discussion

[s29]

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/ecm-updates/

ECM Updates
Blog/ECM
Posted Jan 17, 2020 by Martin Armstrong



We will be providing updates this weekend given the ECM turning point, which appears to be extremely involved from Trump’s impeachment, Russian Constitution changes, to markets making new highs or lows. It is very interesting to see just how active this turn has become. Of course, we have only two 8.6-year waves left before the major change comes in 2032.

So we will be making posts this weekend tailored to each level of service.

LOL, Marty is already congratulating himself with "being so right with the ECM date", "because so much is happening".

- Trump's impeachment; because the Democrats wanted to impeach Trump since the day he was inaugurated? Shocking.
- Russian Constitution changes; because Putin, the de facto leader of Russia since 2000, wants to rule a few more years? Shocking.
- Markets making new highs or lows; because the stock markets making new highs after making new highs years after years? Shocking.

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[1714108816]

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[1714108816]

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[s29]

I had another recent one: his bearish calls on saturday 24 August, just between the Trump Trade Tweet on Friday and the futures at lows on the Monday after that.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/china/china-v-us-trade-war/

China v US Trade War
Blog/China
Posted Aug 24, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

The way the markets respond to every issue with trade is really over-kill. But the market is in a bearish mode as the Economic Confidence Model heads into its business cycle low come January 2020.

Why does he tweets bearish things after already such a huge decline, while if he's such a pro, he must know that these are setups for huge (counter)rally's, and he's confusing traders with comments like that (probably lots of Armstrong-blog readers sold on that Monday or gone short, and/or didn't buy anything for this huge rally). Whether his prediction still comes to fruition before February 2020 or not, Marty always seems to be a complete idiot on short time timing.

This was the last trading day before the ECM date.

Update:



Armstrong missed a 500 point (!) rally (or at least his readers) in the S&P 500 in just 5 months time if they listened to him then.

[555Many]

Well this market better tank down HARD next week or his entire reputation is on the line

so is this the thing now? So this can be disproven? Finally, someone made a deadline. Tangible. let us see!!!

[AnonymousCoder]

Well this market better tank down HARD next week or his entire reputation is on the line

so is this the thing now? So this can be disproven? Finally, someone made a deadline. Tangible. let us see!!!

Check the old posts, we already did that a lot last year. Conclusion was that it didn't work.

You have a good point here.

From my perspective, this discussion is kind of entertaining but pointless. Why? Because everybody who knows a little about statistics, and traders usually do, knows it.

What if everything turns out to be as the current interpretation of this fake prediction (which isn't one as I pointed out before) ?

Then we are back at square one even while it means nothing. An event where the broken clock is right twice a day.

The fact is that Martin Armstrong has a horrible track record already as we can see here and the site in my signature.

I don't want to spoil the party - in fact I enjoy the fun so by all means keep watching and we will add the outcome to the history.



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog

[s29]

I have to apologize to Armstrong, for being so right on the ECM date. Something big happened today: Megxit Done Deal: Harry, Meghan Reach Deal Quitting Royal Life, Give Up Royal Titles

Marty is the true prophet of the universe.

[dibley8899]

 

WOW WOW WOW WOW

[/b]

ECM Saturday January 18th 2020. It happened right on the button, slap bang on the date. Please send him 15$ though he doesn't need it obviously!

Caution is advised when clicking the link...

                                            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DNQRtmIMxk


         

[s29]

yes, this ECM date was a total dud, no breaking news at all.

Since that is the case; this ECM date should be a turn in the markets, like Armstrong said:

What he basically is saying now is: a high around Saturday January 18 (week before or after)= turning down 20%+ into Q1 2021. Only if US share markets make a low on the ECM we would rally in 2020 once we take out 2019 high.
For now, taking out 28.971,94 on a weekly basis could mean going toward 30k.

So he means either a big low or a big high around the ECM. Looking at yesterday's price action, a low seems hardly possible anymore.

Now this gets interesting directly; because on one hand Armstrong says that if the stock market rallies into the ECM date, that it will turn lower after the ECM.
But on the other hand he says if 28.971,94 on a weekly basis on the Dow that it will first go to 30k, which the Dow did last week. Okay, so no turn date? Very confusing and playing both sides.
But let's be generous: if in February, March or any other month later this year the stock markets make news highs versus the January high his ECM date is officially total baloney.

[s29]

Remember Armstrong being so bearishly doomy gloomy since the ECM turn date in 2015 especially about the world economy? That is would all turn down into the 2020 ECM date? Well, that was all WRONG:

[s29]

yes, this ECM date was a total dud, no breaking news at all.

Since that is the case; this ECM date should be a turn in the markets, like Armstrong said:

What he basically is saying now is: a high around Saturday January 18 (week before or after)= turning down 20%+ into Q1 2021. Only if US share markets make a low on the ECM we would rally in 2020 once we take out 2019 high.
For now, taking out 28.971,94 on a weekly basis could mean going toward 30k.

So he means either a big low or a big high around the ECM. Looking at yesterday's price action, a low seems hardly possible anymore.

Now this gets interesting directly; because on one hand Armstrong says that if the stock market rallies into the ECM date, that it will turn lower after the ECM.
But on the other hand he says if 28.971,94 on a weekly basis on the Dow that it will first go to 30k, which the Dow did last week. Okay, so no turn date? Very confusing and playing both sides.
But let's be generous: if in February, March or any other month later this year the stock markets make news highs versus the January high his ECM date is officially total baloney.

PRIVATE BLOG – Markets & the ECM
Blog/ECM
Posted Jan 19, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

PRIVATE BLOG – Markets & the ECM

Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please visit Ask-Socrates.com.

Anyone can summerize so we can fact check Armstrong's amazing predictions again?

[trulycoined]

So the ECM turning point arrived 18 Jan 2020. What happened?

Let's take a look at the MA/ECM forecasts from older blog posts:

Dec 28, 2014
"We should witness dramatic political and economic changes going into 2020.05. The bottom of the ECM 2020.05 will also be 31.4 years from the start of the fall of Communism that should culminate in the final stages of the collapse of Socialism. This is part of the cause of BIG BANG that will become focused most intensely between 2015.75 and 2020.05."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/understanding-big-bang-2015-75/

Also see:
"Laissez-faire economics will return once again by the end of the collapse in state rule over the economy"
http://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2014/12/Laissez-faire-death-of-Marxism.jpg


Sep 2, 2015
"... the last 4.3 years are typically the worst. That is what we should see between 2015.75 and 2020.05... This is the peak in confidence in government and it will evaporate rapidly as it did in 260 AD. This is not the end of the world, but it will be a chance to push back to restore our liberty. It will get bad at first because government will fight hard going into 2017. By mid-2018, we should begin to see the trend with more clarity for once and all."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/the-next-four-years-after-2015-75/


Nov 4, 2015
"2015.75 was a major turning point that was the BEGINNING of a serious decline into 2020.05. Even politics has gone nuts and the media is starting to figure out that this is all about throwing the bums out. This is the start of a very serious new trend and it is time to wake up. The velocity will begin to pick up with the benchmark targets in gold."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/2015-75-seems-to-be-on-target/


Jul 13, 2016
"we are looking at the demise of governments... We are looking at the collapse of government’s ability to issue debt as we move forward into this cycle... This time, governments are trying bail-ins and this is causing confidence to collapse... And to answer why we did not hold one in Berlin, yes, our models were warning about significant civil unrest in Europe as a consequence of the complete fiscal mismanagement of the ECB."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/sovereign-debt-crisis/the-2015-75-crisis-moving-into-2020-05/


Nov 3, 2019 (where MA acknowledges his blog post linked above Dec 28, 2014)
"This target is 31.4 years from the START of the fall of Communism. It is the START of this trend in Western Society NOT THE END!!!!!!! The 2020 election in the USA will be the most contentious since the 1960s and we should expect a rise in civil unrest. It will turn into a major political battle at the peak of the next wave – 2024."
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/misrepresenting-our-forecast-for-the-start-of-big-bang-2015-75/

So rather than admit he was wrong, instead MA moves the goal posts, claims he was correct and explains this is just the "beginning". Wasn't he telling everyone that beginning was 2015.75?


The context of all the above blog posts going back to 2014 has MA explaining there should have been a low into 2020.05. That did not happen.

Now he is explaining the period to 2022 should be "inflationary":
"But generally, the next wave of the ECM business cycle should be an inflationary one"
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/the-next-cycle-in-the-ecm-beginning-january-2020/



Also interesting reading: I stumbled across this from 2010, where MA makes countless forecasts - presumably based on his ECM/Socrates - and hardly any of them came to pass, including China becoming the new economic superpower by 2015.75, or at least that would be set in stone by 2020.05... Meanwhile, the US remains the world's largest economy by some $7.2trn.

His forecasts of GBP were glaringly wrong and Socrates failed to predict one of the most politically significant events in UK history since the 1600s with Brexit.


And in this article from 2007, the ECM turning point of 2020.05 is stated as 01/26/20, while in other blog posts, it is 01/18/20.

If his alleged machine spits out dates "to the day" that are not based on opinion or interpretation, was this just a typo?


So what happened on 18 Jan 2020?

Nothing.


It was another 2015.75 all over again. There is indeed a clear cycle to everything, including MA's BS.

[s29]

Also interesting reading: I stumbled across this from 2010, where MA makes countless forecasts - presumably based on his ECM/Socrates - and hardly any of them came to pass, including China becoming the new economic superpower by 2015.75, or at least that would be set in stone by 2020.05... Meanwhile, the US remains the world's largest economy by some $7.2trn.

Armstrong just seems to be shooting predictions at random with big words and nice charts, and then hopes that some of them will stick.

[Traxo]

Armstrong just seems to be shooting predictions at random with big words and nice charts, and then hopes that some of them will stick.

Remember that he claims his computer processes inputs on a multi-dimensional plane that is beyond human capability, and at the same time he posts 2D charts for you to read them to back up his predictions. 

[DanB1]

Probably nothing will happen this week or next week....Nothing specific happened on the 18th.

I did sell some positions in my portfolio last week, just in case. Not to difficult to do as I think we are due for a (small) correction anyway.
But maybe we keep going up or are going sideways and then I need to slowly buy into the market again.

Maybe the new Sars-like virus in China that flared up this weekend is something that might change things. Who knows.

[DanB1]

By the way, there is a new book on Jim Simons, "The Man Who Solved the Market".
Simons actualy did did what Armstrong is saying he did.

"Simons built a computer model capable of digesting torrents of data and selecting ideal trades, a scientific and systematic approach partly aimed at removing emotion from the investment process.
Since 1988, Renaissance's signature Medallion fund has generated average annual returns of 66 percent. The firm has earned profits of more than $100 billion; Simons is worth twenty-three billion dollars."



...Compare this with Armstrong  

[Traxo]

By the way, there is a new book on Jim Simons, "The Man Who Solved the Market".

https://www.amazon.com/Man-Who-Solved-Market-Revolution/dp/073521798X
November 5, 2019
$20
384 pages
Is best seller
300+ reviews

https://www.amazon.com/Manipulating-World-Economy-Martin-Armstrong/dp/0578611171
~ December 25, 2019
~ 460 pages
~ $100, author claims it's a "public service"
Is not best seller, author claims it is
0 legit reviews

[scammersglobal]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHzTqLUxNwg


Like share and comment thanks. More posts to do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHzTqLUxNwg

[infofront]

Also interesting reading: I stumbled across this from 2010, where MA makes countless forecasts - presumably based on his ECM/Socrates - and hardly any of them came to pass, including China becoming the new economic superpower by 2015.75, or at least that would be set in stone by 2020.05... Meanwhile, the US remains the world's largest economy by some $7.2trn.

BTW, anyone read his latest private blog posts? I'm curious what he has to say about the stock markets.

[dibley8899]

Also interesting reading: I stumbled across this from 2010, where MA makes countless forecasts - presumably based on his ECM/Socrates - and hardly any of them came to pass, including China becoming the new economic superpower by 2015.75, or at least that would be set in stone by 2020.05... Meanwhile, the US remains the world's largest economy by some $7.2trn.

BTW, anyone read his latest private blog posts? I'm curious what he has to say about the stock markets.

Mr Armstrong says if it goes up then its going to go up and if it goes down its going to go down, no comment on sideways.

  "Why would you be interested in what he has to say given that most of his calls are incorrect which have been shown on here through countless pages and the blog Mr Anony has put together"    beats me why you would even consider what he is thinking just because he writes a blog on wordpress which anyone could do for $30.

[dibley8899]

 Florida Business Lawyers - Shiner Law Group


What Qualifies as Intentional False Advertising?
Florida law, strictly prohibits the intentional use of false advertising for the sale of products, personal property, or any services. This law also extends to the placement of an advertisement before public that describes services or product, with no intent from the ad creator to sell the products at the mentioned price. Businesses are also prohibited from making false claims about the quality or purpose of a product, or to give consumers an inaccurate understanding of the products they are buying.

There are numerous forms of false or deceptive advertising tactics used to sell products and services, which includes the following:

[AnonymousCoder]

 Florida Business Lawyers - Shiner Law Group


What Qualifies as Intentional False Advertising?
Florida law, strictly prohibits the intentional use of false advertising for the sale of products, personal property, or any services. This law also extends to the placement of an advertisement before public that describes services or product, with no intent from the ad creator to sell the products at the mentioned price. Businesses are also prohibited from making false claims about the quality or purpose of a product, or to give consumers an inaccurate understanding of the products they are buying.

There are numerous forms of false or deceptive advertising tactics used to sell products and services, which includes the following:

Well done. We are getting closer to the core of the matter. Our activities are in fact very focused on what you write - the component of pure deception in Martin Armstrong's campaigns.

These campaigns are clearly misrepresenting the quality and performance of his models which he falsely claims to be the foundation of the services that he sells.

The misrepresentation has many facets, only one of them, as an example, are the fake user posts on his web site that does not accept any comments. We don't really need to list all of them to prove the deceptive nature of his activities.

Summing it up as dibley8899 has just said, who cares what he now writes in his latest blogs, who cares whether the next forecast is actually right or wrong?

What matters is that he has been caught doing

Intentional False Advertising

many times, enough so that someone can take this material and take some serious action.

To provide THAT material has always been our focus, and we hope we did not disappoint in that regard.

My personal method is repeatable. It takes time to put together the timeline of actions of campaign around a major theme that he creates, and one finds all the components in such a campaign. Good examples:

The Myth of the Martin Armstrong Global Cooling Prediction

Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015

He creates a campaign around a scary theme, links is ECM / models to that theme, falsely claims every third day during the campaign that his models predicts the events, and that his services that are also based on his models can help the consumer of his services to profit from them, either in the context of that theme, or otherwise. Then he creates fake emails of satisfied / impressed users praising him for his achievements and services that they bought or are intending to buy. The "see you in Orlando" type of thing.

If I had more time, I would like to create another theme with references, his false claims that he uses Artificial Intelligence instead of his 30-year old technology.

But you can look at that armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com blog, it is full of evidence. We don't actually need much more.




Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog