Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[AussieHash]

Well if you bought a batch1 Neptune on day1 you locked in a BTC price of about $840
If you waited a few days the BTC was even higher
Yesterday BTC was under $600 on bitstamp

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[soy]

Last week I challenged anyone who pre-ordered a knobtune to show me their numbers, their data, their projections, based on realistic difficulty, on why this was a sound investment? You know, some FACTS.

No takers. It's obvious most people gambled and ordered blindly, based on the faulty image of knc being a "good" company.

Here's the way I see it:

Imagine you could loan someone bitcoin with the option of being paid back in USD at the value bitcoin was on the day you loaned it or you could be slowly paid back about the same number of bitcoins you loaned them sometime in the future. Unless you knew for sure that bitcoin price was going to increase, you would loan the bitcoins and try to guarantee yourself against ending up with less than you started with. In fact, I would make this deal even if the bitcoin return option was significantly less than what I loaned if the value of bitcoin skyrocketed.

Obviously, if the value of bitcoin skyrocketed, one would have done better by simply buying and holding. If I knew the future and knew that bitcoin would significantly increase in value, I would buy and hold.

By now, you should have realized that pre-ording a miner with the promise of USD refund at any time prior to manufacturing is the exact same scenario. Assuming you could get about the same number of bitcoins back as you spent, it's an attractive offer and many will see it as such.

Now the fun part - Trying to guess the future difficulty! I predict that difficulty will be between 10 and 15 billion when the Neptunes ship (based on 30% increase per jump - with the increase decreasing by 3% on each adjustment). I also speculate that the power requirements will be higher than advertised and will consume 0.8 W/GH.

With these numbers, I expect a Neptune to generate 7.5 BTC before it stops being profitable. I had no illusions about receiving more BTC than the ~12/each I spent. And yet I still bought three.

Maybe I'll get lucky and KnC will deliver Neptunes that are more powerful than advertised, or arrive sooner than expected, or BTC will skyrocket in value. One of more of these hopes needs to happen for the Neptune to be profitable. The good news is that I have a few months to see what happens before I have to make a choice about a refund. Of course, I'll likely be able to sell the miner for a considerable amount regardless.

Other possible risks include::

• KnC decides to stop honoring refunds
• BTC value plummets after receiving the miner
• Difficulty is significantly higher than I predict
• Delivery is significantly later than hoped

Aren't we all going to feel guilty when time goes by, difficulty goes sky high, Bitcoin never tops the value of an ounce of gold in the next few months, the math tells us then as KNC prepares to ship that we'll never make back ROI and we all request refunds.

[shmadz]

Well if you bought a batch1 Neptune on day1 you locked in a BTC price of about $840
If you waited a few days the BTC was even higher
Yesterday BTC was under $600 on bitstamp

Exactly, miners shouldn't be thinking in dollars anyways.

I paid 11 btc for mine and they say it's gonna do 3 TH

They said the last one would do 400, mine does 560.

I think it was a good bet.

(*edit for clarity: I think the Neptune for 11 btc is a good bet. Not the Jupiter that I paid 70 btc for and everyday as I walk past it, I call it my seventy-thousand dollar mistake...)

[btcusr]

All 1200 Neptunes were sold out.

KNC had also updated us that they will also sell 28nm units (Jupiters?).

I hope this time it's not a preorder, with 2 months delivery time..

[RickJamesBTC]

None of the other companies have shipped big power products yet, they all flounder about trying to make stuff work. While I believe the difficulty will grow, it can't be as exponential as when KNC blew the market up shipping thousands of jupiters. What company is going to be shipping PHs per week to make those numbers happen?
Here's my prediction for Neptune production.

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=1180923195.258&dcosts=13000&diff_mincrease=20&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=5000000&diff_mincreasedecrease=4&btcusd=600&dpowcon=2400&btcusd_mincrease=2&pcost=0.13&calcweeks=25&dleadtime=8&action=calc

[Syke]

Exactly, miners shouldn't be thinking in dollars anyways.

I paid 11 btc for mine and they say it's gonna do 3 TH

They said the last one would do 400, mine does 560.

I think it was a good bet.

By the time Neptunes are delivered, difficulty is going to be at least 10x higher than it is now. That means when you actually start mining, you'll only mine .1 btc per day, and it'll only go down from there. It's going to take quite some time to earn back those 11 btc.

[opentoe]

We are all getting ahead of the time here. Neptune information or even a peep about a Neptune won't be heard for at least several months. I know it sucks to be out such a lot of money, then see bitcoin tank, then see the diff rise upon the sky, it just doesn't look good. KNC only advertised the Neptune at this time with a 6 MONTH delivery window because they did not want us to pre-order from any other company. Trust me, they haven't even started working on the Netpune in any fashion at all. After the New Years. And then 4 or 5 months you may see some Neptune info. They'll increase the power requirements so everyone will have to go out and get commercial electrical panels installed in their home and that's not cheap. Once you step on that commercial level, that's when the fun bitcoin mining days are over. It was fun while it lasted and I'll squeeze every dollar out ouf my October Jupiter.
Good luck and happy holidays!

[vesperwillow]

Obviously, if the value of bitcoin skyrocketed, one would have done better by simply buying and holding. If I knew the future and knew that bitcoin would significantly increase in value, I would buy and hold.

I suppose significantly is the key word there. It's definitely going to rise over time. No surefire way to know how much time or value. B&H is one solid thing to do with these coins, in addition to mining.

With these numbers, I expect a Neptune to generate 7.5 BTC before it stops being profitable. I had no illusions about receiving more BTC than the ~12/each I spent. And yet I still bought three.

Finally, one of only a couple of us who is making a realistic projection. Mine was 4-6 with an upper of 12 depending on factors.

All I could do was shake my head in disbelief at the folks who bought Neptunes thinking they would crank out like 50 coins.

Realistic?
8 billion jump in one change in July?
57266 TH/s added to the network in a 10-12 days period?
That's 10K Neptunes at 5TH/s.

exactly.... not gonna happen

2,400 neptunes went to individuals. Who knows what deals KNC has made with businesses.

Not to mention the hashrate other companies will likely have online by then. I'm not claiming any specific difficulty, but none of this is outside the mathematical realm of possibility. Cointerra, when they ever ship, are going to ship a shite-ton of hash. More orders than KNC took in, ever.

[DPoS]

WTF?
KNC owes NOBODY an apology over the doggone code. I's called "development." Especially since you got MORE hashrate than u paid for.
Would you like to wait for your miner 'till the code is done being tweaked?
O'rama    don't sweat them...  Peeps with half a noodle in their head know, and appreciate....

 

Thank you for showing us that!

whatever dude, you got free shit... you can pound sand in this thread about other people's problems

why don't you pass around that free shit to others and hop off your high horse?

[DPoS]

We are all getting ahead of the time here. Neptune information or even a peep about a Neptune won't be heard for at least several months. I know it sucks to be out such a lot of money, then see bitcoin tank, then see the diff rise upon the sky, it just doesn't look good. KNC only advertised the Neptune at this time with a 6 MONTH delivery window because they did not want us to pre-order from any other company. Trust me, they haven't even started working on the Netpune in any fashion at all. After the New Years. And then 4 or 5 months you may see some Neptune info. They'll increase the power requirements so everyone will have to go out and get commercial electrical panels installed in their home and that's not cheap. Once you step on that commercial level, that's when the fun bitcoin mining days are over. It was fun while it lasted and I'll squeeze every dollar out ouf my October Jupiter.
Good luck and happy holidays!

quote for truth...   even the Jan Jupiters have to be priced right to make sense with the tsunami arising

[shmadz]

Exactly, miners shouldn't be thinking in dollars anyways.

I paid 11 btc for mine and they say it's gonna do 3 TH

They said the last one would do 400, mine does 560.

I think it was a good bet.

By the time Neptunes are delivered, difficulty is going to be at least 10x higher than it is now. That means when you actually start mining, you'll only mine .1 btc per day, and it'll only go down from there. It's going to take quite some time to earn back those 11 btc.

I hope it's not quite that bad, I've become accustomed to earning at least 1 per week, just before my first avalon arrived, I was all the way down to .1 per day. I remember how that feels, I don't wish to return to those lows. That is why I dropped 11 on the chance...

BTW even at a ridiculous 70 btc my Jupiter is very slowly approaching 50 btc paid back! which is much better that I had thought it would do. I think most people that post what the difficulty will be at some timeframe in the future are not miners. When you run a mine, you are going off actual data, not calculators.

[Phoenix1969]

WTF?
KNC owes NOBODY an apology over the doggone code. I's called "development." Especially since you got MORE hashrate than u paid for.
Would you like to wait for your miner 'till the code is done being tweaked?
O'rama    don't sweat them...  Peeps with half a noodle in their head know, and appreciate....

 

Thank you for showing us that!

whatever dude, you got free shit... you can pound sand in this thread about other people's problems

why don't you pass around that free shit to others and hop off your high horse?

What other peoples problems did I mention there?
O'rama delivered info on a fix that will save eligius users from unwanted errors and got jumped for it. If you are supporting someone(Avenger) who chastises delivery of much needed information being delivered to the community, then you are simply an idiot.
BTW, if the "Free Shit" bothers you.... too damned bad.

[Syke]

I hope it's not quite that bad, I've become accustomed to earning at least 1 per week, just before my first avalon arrived, I was all the way down to .1 per day. I remember how that feels, I don't wish to return to those lows. That is why I dropped 11 on the chance...

BTW even at a ridiculous 70 btc my Jupiter is very slowly approaching 50 btc paid back! which is much better that I had thought it would do. I think most people that post what the difficulty will be at some timeframe in the future are not miners. When you run a mine, you are going off actual data, not calculators.

At 20% (and lower) per adjustment, here's a conservative estimate:

http://btcinvest.net/en/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=1180923195.258&dcosts=13000&diff_mincrease=20&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=3000000&diff_mincreasedecrease=2&btcusd=600&dpowcon=2400&btcusd_mincrease=2&pcost=0.13&calcweeks=50&dleadtime=16&action=calc

Neptunes are going to be too late to make a decent payout.

[Syke]

Run! Bail!..... Just kidding...  My take on it is this.....
Every calculator I've used has been wrong so far calculating anything more than a diff or two....

A calculator is only as good as its inputs. 4 months ago I said we could break 1B difficulty by the end of the year. We did it in mid-December. Difficulty is going to be very very high by the time Neptunes are delivered. You can count on that.

[RickJamesBTC]

Before I ordered my jupiters EVERYONE was swearing up and down the page that you couldn't ROI any asic hardware anymore. I did a lot more than that in days. Pfft on your calculations.

[Phoenix1969]

Run! Bail!..... Just kidding...  My take on it is this.....
We were hearing People chirp about ten billoin diff by Christmas just three months ago
Every calculator I've used has been wrong so far calculating anything more than a diff or two....
and the returns have always been much more than expected thus far, more than the so-called calculators, more than any of my or Pete's projections, including our "best case scenarios", So. I'm rolling the dice, despite all the endless calcs, because we heard all this before, at every point in the process, yet the gains keep coming. If you or anyone in here feels their customer appreciation pre-order was a bad investment, I'm sure there's at least a thousand buyers interested.
I don't buy much into the calcs for one huge reason. They don't include delivery impact on hashrate diminishing over time, which is inevitable. A simple %increase per diff isn't enough to even come close. Every time a batch of asics hits the cloud, it becomes that much harder to make the same impact. No Calc I've seen so far accounts for that. It's not just the diff-rate compounding with every single diffchange, but the inability to make the same impact on the diff with another delivery is compounding as well.
 Nobody knows where the price of btc will be at that time either... it's a pure guess. Let's just hope its high!

[Meizirkki]

If you are supporting someone(Avenger) who chastises delivery of much needed information being delivered to the community, then you are simply an idiot.

This thread shall not contain any argumentation! Lets all just call names like our great leader Phoenix has taught us since the day one! 

[Puppet]

Every calculator I've used has been wrong so far calculating anything more than a diff or two....
and the returns have always been much more than expected thus far, more than the so-called calculators,

What makes you say that? Scrolling back to june in this thread, I see people used 25% growth per difficulty adjustment as a guideline:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.msg2451810#msg2451810
If that had panned out, we would be around 700M difficulty today. Not a bad estimate, but the reality is nearly 2x higher, and thats despite all the delays from KnC's competitors.

FWIW, I stumbled upon this post, from you:

If we apply that to the next 40 days, the diff would only be around 47 mil in the beginning of September, and low 70's in December,

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.msg2799559#msg2799559

You did say it was a best case scenario, maybe your worst case scenario was spot on, but in reality difficulty is still almost 20x higher.

The one thing few people did correctly predict was the astronomical rise in BTC price, leading to a distorted perception of profitability.  Difficulty growth so far has been pretty much exactly where most people expected it to be, not far from where most calculators that used exponential extrapolation predicted. Betting that this trend will break in the next few months, when over 10 vendors start shipping their next generation miners, not something I would do.

[FUKT]

It's funny, but pretty much everyone who can't bear to look at the facts I present here and who is nasty towards me has pre-ordered a knobtune. Or seven.

How did they come to this excellent business decision? I'd say, they stuck their finger up their butt and took a sniff. If it stunk hard enough, they decided to pre-order a neptune.

Last week I challenged anyone who pre-ordered a knobtune to show me their numbers, their data, their projections, based on realistic difficulty, on why this was a sound investment? You know, some FACTS.

No takers. It's obvious most people gambled and ordered blindly, based on the faulty image of knc being a "good" company.

KNC have fucked up multiple times, but as they never apologise or accept any responsibility, people seem to brain wash themselves into thinking knc are great. My experience is a constant reminder they aren't. And people are so fucked in the head they try to tell ME what I recieved and how much it was hashing! What kind of insane behaviour is that? Why do they need to maintain their delusions so strongly?

I don't think people like The Avenger messing with their pre-concieved images of KNC. KNC is the perfect girlfriend that can do no wrong. Until you walk into a room one day and find her sucking some other guys #### It'll be that kind of day many of you see how fucked over and misled you've been.

So every time I criticise knc, point out the unsavoury things they've done, it fucks with people's picture of knc as a "good" company. It makes them question if knc are actually "good". And also, it reminds them and makes them question why they made their "investment" on NO FACTS. Just pure, plain, stupid gambling.

It get's so bad in people's brain they argue with cold, hard facts. They refuse to see the facts. They lash out and call people liars. Anything to maintain the image that knc is "good". KNC have to be good or else my decision to buy was flawed. The decision to invest everything and buy several knobtunes - the weight of delusion must be staggering for those people. Don't make me see that Avenger. Don't. You bastard.

I've been proven right before and I will be again. I'm confident, based on past performance and the attitude of greed and feeling no obligations towards their customers that is now plainly obvious, that this time round KNC's burning of it's customers is going to be epic. They get to spend your money, so it will be you that gets burned.

All the clues are their, the cracks in the foundation.

Please note, we are honestly not at all interested in belittling our competitors with phrases on our boards, our engineering will speak for itself.

Latest newsletter, more or less the day hashfast reveals 500+GH/s boards:

As it looks like our struggling competition may eventually ship before our Network protection period has finished...

Looks like knc have totally lost faith in their own product, when they can't let their so-called engineering speak for itself anymore. They've had to resort to what they said they wouldn't to. To justify doing what they said they wouldn't do! Bad omens.

KNC got lucky with timing. KNC got lucky with it's competition fucking up. KNC got lucky with bitcointalk being off-line for 10 days while they were flailing around trying to ship their first jupiturds. KNC got lucky with BTC going to $1300 around the time they wanted to take next pre-order. But their luck will run out, eventually. I get a sense it's already happened. They dropped a log in their pants last week and that was when I think it was all lost. Once belief is gone, so is luck.

I can't wait for the New Year! A Jupiter is due to mine about 2BTC in this difficulty period. This will be obliterated once all these other companies start to ship in January, which they surely will do. That is a FACT. I'd guesstimate in about 3 or 4 difficulty jumps, it's totally game over for Jupiturds. End of January ish.

I'll keep this crock of shit knc hardware I got running until then. But it will give me great pleasure to smash it to shit, for the 70-80 hours of my life I've spent doctoring this lame beta hardware I paid a premium for.

Good luck to the self deluded. But don't say you weren't warned.

Merry Xmas and a Hashing New Year!

Speculation and facts are two different things, which is probably why you did't get an answer.

Constant sellouts of product, and triple-value resales totally say your opinion is left wing,
countless testimony in here as well....
It's obvious now your mission is to damage the KNC customer base with speculations you call fact
Get a grip.

Dude, I think you need to stop the marketing and cheerleading of KNC. Are you the next shillorama?

[Phoenix1969]

If you are supporting someone(Avenger) who chastises delivery of much needed information being delivered to the community, then you are simply an idiot.

This thread shall not contain any argumentation! Lets all just call names like our great leader Phoenix has taught us since the day one.

I've been called much worse, by that same person. Sorry if it offended you, I normally don't do that, but peeps brought out a ton of  un-necessary BS today, so I dished back.....    I'm not anyone's leader
why, do you disagree with what I said?
You think we should Jump Orama's ass every time he's nice enough to share important information? Information that makes us BTC??  Orama announces A few keystrokes that saves 10% hw errors on eligius...   now all of a sudden were owed an apology for the code?
are you serious?