Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

There has been increasing kinds of funding in the bitcoin space towards developers, research and other matters, and of course, bitcoin will NOT be dead (and probably not even meaningfully disabled) if Bitmex funding towards bitcoin development and research ends up drying up.

Of course, I did not intend to suggest that Bitcoin was in any way dependent on BitMEX or any other single party.  I should hope that I was not misunderstood that way by anybody!

I did not conclude your post to be suggesting that Bitmex is or would be indispensable in the event that they were totally incapacitated (we are likely quite a distance from that), but I did decide that some further comment seemed warranted.

I do agree that through the last several years, Bitmex seems to have served as a decent steward of the bitcoin space, and surely it remains a bit irritating that they are being attacked in such a seemingly strenuous way...., whether that is too much, or merely the US government employing seemingly overbearing tools in order to attempt to negotiate from a better seeming position of strength.

Indeed, I somewhat noticed that U.S. regulators went aggressively after an exchange that has demonstrated pro-Bitcoin behaviour, instead of ripping into one of the many exchanges that never saw a forked shitcoin they didn’t love.  It’s not as if the U.S. government has ever been in any direct or indirect way connected to shitconery.  Just joking.  I think.

Of course.  Should not go unnoticed, and sometimes there can be additional costs that are imposed by bullies (or BIG dogs) when there seems to be some kind of potential ideological challenge... perhaps part of the reason that bitcoin attempts to be a  bit milder in a variety of ways - including NOT coming out blatantly with secrecy on its base layer.

I surely do not claim to know many of the details of the purported egregiousness that the USA govt is proclaiming against bitmex and four of its officials to justify criminal rather than civil charges, and overall through the years, I have considered Bitmex to be greatly on the net positive side of Bitcoin's development.. even though surely some people (even pretty BIG ass players have gotten quite reckt) have been quite fucked in using their exchange when the market has moved against their bets.

I suppose that that’s called “taking responsibility for your own money”.  I presume that it’s a Bitcoin thing.

Purposes can likely be served by leverage, but 100x does seem to be quite outrageous.

Personally, I cannot really conceive of any frequent way of using 100x in a kind of practical and legitimate way, but people who are more experienced in playing around with leverage are likely more capable of figuring out meaningful and legitimate uses for 100x, besides pure gambling.

Waving my hands a bit over the nature of levers:

If I wanted to gamble in a casino at 100x or even 10000x leverage, I don’t suppose that any do-gooding busybodies would want to protect me from potentially losing my own money through my own choices and my own follies...  Oh, wait!  Meanwhile, savvy traders who do not go insane or get drunk on leverage have probably made a reasonable profit at the MEX and other exchanges.

Aside, it always astounds me that some people seem not to know that market trading is zero-sum.  If somebody lost a fortune, somebody else gained—and vice versa.  TANSTAAFL.

There are likely ways to conduct trading to be profitable, so it may not matter too much what happens with most people, if you know what the fuck you are doing.

Sure, there are a lot of folks who trade who likely believe that they know more than they do, and so they may well not be employing their time effectively.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

It’s coming again....


https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1312449034154504192?s=21

[STT]

100x leverage is for a trader who knows exactly where a large candle is about to form in the direction they predict, alot of knowledge and timing is going to occur in that decision or they wont last long.    I dont think its a negative by itself and its not even abnormal because I think options contracts allow similar, mostly its going to make a profit for the house as its gambling for most who dont have those skills and discipline to enter correctly.    We all know BTC regularly just does loop the loop and repeats its pricing, occasionally theres a bigger candle but I dont know when tbh.    Was there any big candle to match the news of President getting covid, if that news isnt showing up in an obvious way I dont know how it could be easily predictable really.

We been going sideways a few months roughly, not sure I get my wish but looking for price action to stop with the lower highs and do something new fairly soon.   Falling 50 day and rising 200 day and we squish between them since September start.

[eddie13]

November soon.. Remember Remember

Looking stable.. Time for some pumpenings..

[ivomm]

The problem in not the 100x itself but rather the opportunity which it creates with a practically anonymous account. I say 'practically' because even if someone is giving his name, his actions are not monitored like on regulated US exchanges.

Take the numerous cases in which CFTC discovered derivate manipulations. What does this mean? Simply speaking this means that one person (or family, or a circle of friends) trades  simultaneously on spot market and derivate market taking advantage of its own action. With regulated exchanges it is easier to find these people and to sue them for their illegal actions. Many of us were suspicious about the CME gaps for example, expecting a dump to fill those gaps at $9600. Well, it happened several times before but not this time, which shows that CFTC is working well with CME.  

On the other hand, it is much easier with a 100x margin to manipulate the marked by selling both on mex and some less liquid spot exchange. There is a risk of a price swing of course, but theoretically such practically anonymous persons or entities could do this endlessly. If there is no monitoring on behalf of mex staff, then everything is allowed. And this is by no means good for the natural growth of Bitcoin. Not to mention that there are numerous suspicions that mex owners are playing against their clients. Of course, they know all their positions and can squeeze them anytime. I can recall for at least 2 articles in coindesk and cointelegraph about it. They also can turn off the server in case something goes wrong like 12 March crash. And finally, I really don't believe that the owners are innocent and not cooperating with money launderers. So, the hodlers should have no tears or remorse for mex.

[nullius]

It’s coming again....


https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1312449034154504192?s=21

This stimulus is medically indicated for the treatment of acute hysteria:



High inflation with potential for hyperinflation, however, is rather like taking a cyanide pill to cure a headache.  I suppose that it does work, in a sense.

https://twitter.com/dysmemic/status/1312309954989023232

Excellent.  So good that it actually made me go to Twitter and peruse the discussion.  Thanks.

[arcmetal]

Today is going to be a crazy day.

In these moments it is like being in the middle of the ocean with the sea calm, stereo on, coffee, happy saturday

Sometimes it's both.
Did i write about my wife getting educated in hypnosis recently?

I know that is completely off topic(s), but i'd like to share the following experience, and what it did to me.

...
If anybody here has been helped by reading this, or will help him/her in the future, i'd be happy enough that i decided to share it.

With apologies to the OP.  

Thanks for sharing.  I've had similar experiences, and yours match up well with what I have seen and felt.

My grandfather was a professional hypnotist.  He was a dentist and he'd use it to anesthetize patients before performing oral surgery.  And so, he hypnotized me a few times.  The experiences you describe can also be achieved, as you know, through many means, like: self hypnosis, shamanic drumming, reiki, or even just spontaneously, etc.  These all have similar outcomes to allow one to experience those other parts of the mind and self.

[criptix]

https://twitter.com/dysmemic/status/1312309954989023232

Sadly corruption exists everywhere.

In the west it is just not so obvious and sitting straight in front of your eye compared to developing nations and similar.

And this also sometimes directly lead to another problem:

Exploitation of poorer nations and thus worsening corruption there.

(Slave and child labor, destruction of the enviroment and economy, exploitation of natural ressources without the ethnic population taking part of the profits)

Power tends to corrupt;
absolute power corrupts absolutely.

A nice article about bitmex from a lawyer:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/indictments-issued-for-bitmex-senior-team-are-a-signal-to-all

[nullius]

An exceedingly long rant response was hereby cut, and replaced with the following:

Who appointed the United States and its institutions to supervise Bitcoin?

N.b. that I myself despise financial speculation in principle.  I think that in a perfect world, there would be no significant financial speculation at all.  If I find myself in the unusual position of defending that sort of activity, then that may be a sign that you have stepped into the zone of HANDS OFF MY BITCOIN and AMERICA IS NOT THE GODDAMN WORLD POLICE—AMERICA IS NOT THE BITCOIN POLICE.

Bitmex was damaging it by 100x margin, as easy as this.
btc going down 1% wipes out the 100X long position.

That is what margin calls are for.  Fools suffer from their follies.

We have speed limit signs on most highways, right? Same idea.

Suggesting that the U.S. government should or can put “speed limit signs” on Bitcoin!  You, personally, are a part of the problem.  There is already a shitcoin for you:  It is called the United States Dollar.

Bitmex is no autobahn.

Also, stop believing urban legends.  Most if not all of the Autobahn has speed limits.  The limits just tend to be... rather high.  Are you perchance American?  I have only ever seen Americans repeat that nonsense.

With regulated exchanges it is easier to find these people and to sue them for their illegal actions. Many of us were suspicious about the CME gaps for example, expecting a dump to fill those gaps at $9600. Well, it happened several times before but not this time, which shows that CFTC is working well with CME.

...oh... oh.  So you think this is because of CME.  Thanks; if (if) you are correct, then I now despise them even more than I already have since that was first announced in 2017.  The Bitcoin futures market should get wrecked, so that it stops messing with the normal Bitcoin market.  If everybody who trades futures and other derivatives were to go bankrupt, it would be better for Bitcoin in the long term.

The problem in not the 100x itself but rather the opportunity which it creates with a practically anonymous account.

[...]

money launderers

OK, gotcha.  You’ve a few Horsemen left to go.


If it is not something that can be done safely in an unregulated market, then maybe you shouldn’t be doing it in an unregulated market.  Don’t try to create the clusterfork of the bank-run financial markets in Bitcoin.

<snip>

[Biodom]

Bitmex was damaging it by 100x margin, as easy as this.
btc going down 1% wipes out the 100X long position.

That is what margin calls are for.  Fools suffer from their follies.

We have speed limit signs on most highways, right? Same idea.

Suggesting that the U.S. government should or can put “speed limit signs” on Bitcoin!  You, personally, are a part of the problem.  There is already a shitcoin for you:  It is called the United States Dollar.

I was talking about bitmex, not bitcoin.
bitmex!=bitcoin, not even close
bitcoin protocol says NOTHING about the 100X margin.
Capische (EDIT: also known as "capiche", "capisce", "capeesh" or "capish")?

[nutildah]

Why are you deadset determined to whitewash Antifa?

You made the rather outrageous claim that today's Antifa were communists and I asked you to back it up with some evidence other than that some of today's Antifa has chosen to make stickers based on the original Antifa logo. So where is your evidence?

[BobLawblaw]

OK. I suck. Saw some movements last night that I was expecting to have a broader, positive impact on the markets today, but my gut seems to have gotten it wrong.

Oh well. Continue to HODL strong, brothers.

Today is going to be a crazy day.

https://twitter.com/BXRekt/status/1312435824726745088

[AlcoHoDL]

On the Bitmex drama, my thoughts.
Some bitcoin companies are like lab rats: they have been left alone to experiment things that one day will become part of the new FINancialTECHnology world. Take Bitmex: bringing futures to the next level right? or finex or any other. Then they come and tell you, hey boy, this is our territory, how do you dare?
And then they publicly admit that "Digital assets hold great promise for our derivatives market and for our economy". Yeah, right?

Thumbs up to 600watt, somac. for https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55302340#msg55302340

Although, IMO, institutions will find a way to get into Bitcoin without an ETF. We've seen however, that in the last months despite the huge purchases, the price didn't move as much as it should. The only logical explanation is of course the fraudulent shorting using Mex and other not well regulated exchanges. There is also a non logical explanation. As we are normal people here, carefuly thinking about every detail, we tend to forget that there are people who are not like us. Take for example Las Vegas - how many addicted people are in the casinos losing all the cash they bring in their pockets! The same is with the addicted daily traders, who can't be called manipulators, but like vicious brainless piranhas eat the price down until their stash is gone in an endless stop loss chase. The removal of Mex shorters will tip the balance against the piranhas and in favour of the natural growth. So I applaud the CFTC action and hopefully it will shut down Mex and put their owners and other money launderers in jail, where they belong!

I don't necessarily agree even though it looks like my post allowed you to get a merit boost (and I am overall surprised by those who merited you the most). I will keep my position and see how all this will unfold. I am more conscious than ever that only dexes, layer2, coinjoins, LN and such could allow us a bitcoin true experience.
If what you wrote will prevail, I will probably start to abandon the ship. I don't applaud the CFTC
But we are friends anyway

Yes, there will be dips.
Yes, there will be peaks.
Yes, there will be pumps.
Yes, there will be dumps.

Just Zoom Out^TM, chill, and have a beer!

If you're scared about a dip, you need some HoDL training...

Don't give them your coins.

A rusty nut won't budge, and that's about the only good quality of a rusty nut.

HoDL.

Sure man, I am like you on this. But, what I am seeing coming from the regulators is making me thinking (just have a look at V8's post up here). Maybe I am a bit naive but I don't want to become rich at the expense of my freedom, if you get what I mean.  
I know I should elaborate more but I am confused.

I hear you man, I'm concerned too, that we'll end up filthy rich, but unable to enjoy our riches... No joke.

Karartma1, I don't think you need to abandon ship. Let's wait and see how this plays out. It's all good to have total freedom to do whatever we want, but do you remember how Elwar's seastead ended up? We've got to tread carefully, or my statement "we'll end up filthy rich, but unable to enjoy our riches" may come true.

[cAPSLOCK]

But one of the things the left is fucking good at?  Rebranding.

When I was a conservative it meant fiscally conservative and now it means socially (religiously) conservative.

The right has been hijacked.

Irony abounds.

You got that right.

I don't know what the right is anymore.  It has splintered into several factions... Neocon hawks that are actually democrats, and conspiracy theorists.  While the left has become the actual thing that they are saying the right is... Just the mirror image. Basically woke fascists.

I seriously think it could be the prelude to the (some sort of?) Apocalypse. Lol.
   

[nullius]

It is interesting that nutildah has never challenged the factuality of my very brief summary of the historical establishment of the original Antifa in 1932.  He can’t, of course; for I am quite correct about an historical fact that he is furious to see even mentioned.  I tossed it in here, not expecting any controversy, just because it is a an interesting fact that most people do not know; I thought that folks might be curious.  Evidently, some people would much prefer for this bit of history to be forgotten.

nutildah doth protest too much, methinks.

Why are you deadset determined to whitewash Antifa?

You made the rather outrageous claim that today's Antifa were communists and I asked you to back it up with some evidence other than that some of today's Antifa has chosen to make stickers based on the original Antifa logo. So where is your evidence?

Go reread my prior posts and reply to the substance of what I actually said, before you affect an air of overweening superiority over my “rather outrageous claim” that an organization which today overtly uses a Communist name (wtf, “some of today’s Antifa”? all Antifas use the Communist name “Antifa”!), a Communist symbol (their actual logo—not just a few random people making “stickers”), substantively Communist ideology, and Communist tactics, with the same old Communist purpose of political violence to incite riots and cancel free speech, is... Communist.

If you have difficulty identifying an anatine creature
that looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and overtly calls itself “mallard”,
then you may have contracted a severe case of liberalism.

I won’t be trolled by you that way into writing a book-length post which anyway, by your record, you will either ignore or cherry-pick as convenient.  I am too busy making some stickers, which, according to you, every reasonable person must presume carries no intended implications of political sympathy with a group that, borrowing your exact words, has “technically been defunct” since 1945:

Don’t make any outrageous claims about my stickers, now.  Where is your evidence?

bitcoin protocol says NOTHING about the 100X margin.
Capische?

bitcoin protocol says NOTHING about regulation by the American world-police of the Bitcoin activities of entities based outside the U.S., which even ban U.S. persons from using the site (I just checked).

Capisce?  ← Protip:  Try to spell your words of condescension correctly.

[cAPSLOCK]

There were liberals in the republic party and conservatives in the democratic party.

Rhino 🦏 was a nonexistent concept.

The most dangerous thing possible has happened right wing and extreme right wing are all republican.

left wing and extreme left wing are all democrats.

Bipartisanship is shot. It is a fucking mess.

Yeah.  That's exactly what I just tried to say, but better.  It actually scares me a little bit.  i feel like we have come to a place (at least in the US, but from here it really looks like lots of places in the world) where we are in some strange sort of peril.

[vapourminer]

When I was a conservative it meant fiscally conservative and now it means socially (religiously) conservative.

The right has been hijacked.

Irony abounds.

You got that right.

I don't know what the right is anymore.  It has splintered into several factions... Neocon hawks that are actually democrats, and conspiracy theorists.  While the left has become the actual thing that they are saying the right is... Just the mirror image. Basically woke fascists.

I seriously think it could be the prelude to the (some sort of?) Apocalypse. Lol.
 

two apocalypses in a row? isnt that against the rules?

[JayJuanGee]

An exceedingly long rant response was hereby cut, and replaced with the following:

Who appointed the United States and its institutions to supervise Bitcoin?

N.b. that I myself despise financial speculation in principle.  I think that in a perfect world, there would be no significant financial speculation at all.  If I find myself in the unusual position of defending that sort of activity, then that may be a sign that you have stepped into the zone of HANDS OFF MY BITCOIN and AMERICA IS NOT THE GODDAMN WORLD POLICE—AMERICA IS NOT THE BITCOIN POLICE.

Surely, that is part of the justification why bitcoiner should NOT be blanketedly cheering for BIG government to be taking down Bitmex and its various agents, presuming them to be criminals - even though currently, they are being charged as criminals.  There are due process rights in America, even though sometimes those due process rights are NOT fairly applied or allowed, so of course, frequently injustices occur.  

I am NOT proclaiming that the various departments of the US justice system (who are purportedly representing the interest of the US people) are without a variety of justifications, but surely they need to have jurisdiction over the matters that they are alleging and charging, and due process of law should be allowed, including in criminal cases there are presumptions of innocent until being proved guilty.  Therefore evidence needs to be shown in a court of law, and criminal cases surely have intent elements that must be proven in a court of law, too.  

I am more inclined to presume that injustices are taking place on the side of the accused, when I see members posting about the guilt of these various players way before evidence has even been adequately described (and sure in the court of public opinion, we might even be relying upon more flimsy evidence regarding how we might feel about the situation).

[edited out]

Karartma1, I don't think you need to abandon ship. Let's wait and see how this plays out. It's all good to have total freedom to do whatever we want, but do you remember how Elwar's seastead ended up? We've got to tread carefully, or my statement "we'll end up filthy rich, but unable to enjoy our riches" may come true.

For sure, if we are feeling overexposed to bitcoin, maybe we cut back on our allocation a bit.

But, even with various negative news like this, it remains difficult to figure out where to better put your money, and even if there might be some justifications, based on recent news, how to better allocate.

Of course, each person has to decide for themselves the extent to which they might be over-allocated in bitcoin, and also if s/he might become a target of governmental actions and/or overreach based on his/her own situation - whether that is being accused of  some conduct that s/he did not consider to be against the law.. but sometimes safety measures may well need to be taken in regards to where to hold stash and how much of the private keys are kept off line.  I personally find it can be quite difficult to attempt to sell BTC directly, especially if we start to get to very large numbers, in the future, so in that regard, it is likely better to have some arrangements with traditional institutions to be able to have avenues to liquidate portions of your BTC stash from time to time and also reporting on taxes, consulting with attorneys and accountants and things like that could be helpful too.  

If any of us are pulling out anything approaching fuck you status levels, whether that is a million or more or even in the territory of $6million or more, then we may well need to have some of those liquidation relationships because it could be much more difficult to operate peer to peer with those kinds of quantities, and then might we be interacting in circles that might end up causing questions to our own actions, too - even if we personally believe that we are trying to stay above board with every one of our actions.

[edited out]

I don't know what the right is anymore.  It has splintered into several factions... Neocon hawks that are actually democrats, and conspiracy theorists.  While the left has become the actual thing that they are saying the right is... Just the mirror image. Basically woke fascists.

I seriously think it could be the prelude to the (some sort of?) Apocalypse. Lol.

Yep.. preparing for and conceding to the possibility of apocalypse and Armageddon-like scenarios are seeming way less outlandish than they were feeling pre-2020.

Might have even called you out as a "nutjob" before you even had a chance to finish your sentence - but these days, you are coming off as somewhat reasonable deploying that apocalypse term.

[Biodom]

bitcoin protocol says NOTHING about the 100X margin.
Capische/capisce/capiche/?

bitcoin protocol says NOTHING about regulation by the American world-police of the Bitcoin activities of entities based outside the U.S., which even ban U.S. persons from using the site (I just checked).

Capisce?  ← Protip:  Try to spell your words of condescension correctly.

maybe in your home country it is capisce, but around here my spelling is correct (or at least one out of two-three used variations).
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Capische
read the complaint re the rest...

[Hueristic]

I don't know what the right is anymore.  It has splintered into several factions... Neocon hawks that are actually democrats, and conspiracy theorists.  While the left has become the actual thing that they are saying the right is... Just the mirror image. Basically woke fascists.

I seriously think it could be the prelude to the (some sort of?) Apocalypse. Lol.
    

two apocalypses in a row? isnt that against the rules?

Amusingly enough its actually in paperback!



https://www.amazon.com/Donald-Trump-Americas-Apocalypse-Thiel-ebook/dp/B01MR70ERL