You've been posting these for months now (I appreciate it because it confirms what I've suspected for about 2 years) and anyone who still doesn't see the correlation between BTC and the general stock market is out of their goddamn minds
(cough... JJG).
cough\Zoom out a bit, nutildah, and your nonsensical desire for BTC correlation is likely to be a wee bit less convincing
No one, including yours truly, is not recognizing or appreciating the existence of short-term correlation between BTC and equities or even other assets, even a year or two, here and there is going to be correlation, of course.
By the way you notice that Phil_S's above chart only covers 3 months at best? What you going to see with a three month snapshot, especially if it comes to any kind of meaningful discussion of possible correlation? Many of us here attempt to understand our context of where we are in bitcoin in terms of where we have been on a longer scale, which also likely gives us some better ideas about where we might be going.. sure, nothing is guaranteed, but 3 months is NOT a long time in the life of king daddy in order to figure out where we are, what is happening currently or even where we might be going, as you should realize by now, nutildah.
Bitcoin also has four-year fractal theories, as you likely realize, that attempt to appreciate BTC's price dynamics and movements. Four years is a bit longer than 3 months if you had not realized, in order to attempt to appreciate where we might be within a potentially more meaningful cycle... and if you might want to attempt to make broad claims about bitcoin compared to other assets... Again, NOT absolutely determinative, but seemingly better than a three month depiction.
Do you have some overlays that you would like to make with bitcoin and equities or other assets on a four-year or longer time horizon and still argue purported correlation, nutildah? Let's see how those might end up playing out.
Here's one that is showing a 6-year timeline comparing gold and equities.. so it is a bit longer than 4 years, and longer should be even better, if making BIG claims, no?
Do you notice correlation between BTC, gold and stocks on a six year timeline?
From the linked chart, you see that during the past 6 years, BTC is currently up nearly 12x... gold is up 50% during that same period and equities are up only 33%. Is that correlation, or what?
Do you believe that in the future, all of a sudden those assets are going to become correlated, merely because they have some appearance of correlation in the past three months? You don't really believe that do you? I thought that you were a bitcoiner, nutildah? You have some other allegiances? Do you have coins, or no?
Do you have some other asset that you would like to attempt to compare to bitcoin in order to argue purported correlation? I am waiting.
I doubt anything that you might hypothetically be able to find to compare is going to be as broad of a market and a concept as bitcoin. Yeah, you might show some collectors art or some piece of property or a business here or there, but I doubt that there are any market classes that you could find that is as broad as bitcoin in terms of showing similar price performance/correlation to bitcoin. I thought that there had already been a lot of smart analysis to show that one of the benefits of bitcoin is the lack of correlation (of course, longer term), but go ahead, nutildah, if you have some asset or some way of actually showing longer term BTC correlation with some other asset(s).
Sure, you can take those same DCABTC comparison charts that I linked above, and you can make the timeline shorter within that website interface. The shorter the timeline the closer the correlation appears to exist between BTC and stocks and even gold, but again, no one here is arguing that short-term correlation does not exist, including yours truly... and we know that bitcoin has longer cycles (heard of the 4-year fractal? of course there are some similar models too that are on longer time horizons and would not be locked into short-term appearances, including 1) Plan B's stock to flow model and 2) s-curve exponential adoption theories based on metcalfe and networking principles).
Furthermore, bitcoin also has had a quite a few number of explosive price periods that happen unexpectedly and on only a few days of each year, and you better have your ass (and your assets) in the BTC on those particular few up performance days, otherwise you will be whining like a no coiner or trying to argue for correlation that ONLY exists when you selectively choose your information and point at others as NOT seeing the light, like you happen to see.
By the way, I appreciate the charts of Phil_S (I especially like those colors), but I surely doubt that those charts are saying very much about correlation or even long-term happenings in bitcoin when they are only covering a very short period of time.. three months in the above case.
Poll
