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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26401925 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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October 05, 2020, 03:24:28 PM

The pictures on the website are just generic pictures right now. We have to have filler material until we actually fly to the ship and take pictures ourselves.
Honestly the gym on this ship is not very huge but there is a climbing wall and a running track on the upper deck and we will certainly be focusing on health and self improvement.

Can't go wrong putting Rogue stuff there, Olympic or Power bars, plates, racks. Or even going with any of their competitors (Titan, Ivanko, RepFitness, ... there's a whole bunch of them.)

The ship would have some sort of high speed internet too, maybe wifi on all decks or something. (Your IP address has been traced to a boat 30 minutes off the coast of Panama.) heh.
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October 05, 2020, 03:33:11 PM

is bitcorn ded yet?

asking for a friend...


#dyor
1h

#stronghands
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October 05, 2020, 03:37:07 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1), Last of the V8s (1)

Cross-chain analysis trivially links transactions in which people swap Bitcoin → [X] → Bitcoin; and due to subset sum analysis and timing correlations, it is surprisingly difficult to avoid all practical potential of linkage or probabilistic linkage.

Isn't that much more difficult to do for the average, non-government, or non-ciphertrace / chainalysis group?

There is open-source software for this, available to any competent amateur (or organized crime group... or really, any highly-motivated malicious party).  I will omit a length explanation, due to haste plus a desire not to put up a “wall of text” diverting attention from the important information below.

Of course it can not be "proven" if there is indeed a link since they are cross chain.

This is the same problem as with “plausible deniability” idiot-bait:  The real world does not work this way!  In the real world, if an investigator gets a 90% probability, or even a 10% probability linking transactions, then that is what is called an “investigative lead” to be pursued and confirmed with other evidence.  Or maybe just used in other ways, if someone who wants to get you just isn’t too picky about “proof”.

By the way:  Monero peeps, that is the value proposition of CipherTrace for police agencies.  If they can get a 90% or even 10% probability linking transactions, then that gives the cops a clue to place you under targeted surveillance, get search warrants, hack your computer, beat you with a proverbial $5 wrench, weave a bullshit story for a prosecutor stack charges and threaten you with 100 years in prison to coerce you to plea-bargain even if you are completely innocent (most specifically in “the Land of the Free”, many innocent people are in prison for exactly this reason!), etc.  For someone who is acquainted with reality, it is very irritating to read all the discussions poo-pooing the probabilistic grouping of transactions and partitioning of anonymity sets.

Most Internet-armchair security “experts” have no fucking idea how detectives actually work.  Evidence does NOT need to be “proof” to be very, very useful.

You mention PayJoin and CoinSwap, are those different from CoinJoin and the other things Wasabi (the wallet) are trying to do, or doing?

Payjoin

Payjoin standard:
https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0078.mediawiki

Wasabi Wallet does Payjoin!  This is separate from, and additional to, their CoinJoin implementation.
https://docs.wasabiwallet.io/using-wasabi/PayJoin.html

Works with BTCPay Server on the merchant side:
https://docs.btcpayserver.org/Payjoin/

JoinMarket also does Payjoin:
https://github.com/JoinMarket-Org/joinmarket-clientserver/blob/master/docs/release-notes/release-notes-0.7.0.md#user-content-payjoin-bip78-type-on-command-line-and-gui

These are new developments.  I hope to see more widespread implementation of Payjoin.  Meanwhile, Wasabi Wallet is already a user-friendly way to do Payjoins right now!


CoinSwap

Originally invented here on this forum, by (who else?) Greg Maxwell; but it has suffered some implementation difficulty.

CoinSwap:  Transaction graph disjoint trustless trading
Alice would like to pay Bob, but doesn't want the whole world (or even Bob) tracing her transactions.  Carol offers to receive Alice's coin and pay Bob with unconnected coin, but none of these parties trust each other— and Carol being able to steal coins makes Carol into a systemic risk, since the need for trust means that there can't be many Carols and Carol could be earning income on the side spying on Alices, or could get robbed, etc.

Oh, and they don't want to invoke novel cryptography or change the Bitcoin protocol.

Here I present a protocol where Alice can pay Bob by way of Carol where Carol can not rob them.

Now being implemented!  The links in this quote are recommended:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/the-human-rights-foundation-is-now-funding-bitcoin-privacy-development-starting-with-coinswap
Quote from: Bitcoin Magazine (2020-06-10)
The Human Rights Foundation Is Now Funding Bitcoin Privacy Development, Starting With CoinSwap
by Aaron van Wirdum
June 10, 2020

The Human Rights Foundation (HRF) was already promoting Bitcoin’s privacy features. Now, it will also fund the development of them.

HRF, the New York-based nonprofit that promotes and protects human rights globally, has launched a fund to support Bitcoin developers who make the Bitcoin network more private, decentralized and resilient. The first grant, worth close to $50,000, has been gifted to London-based Bitcoin developer Chris Belcher to realize an implementation of his CoinSwap protocol. A second grant of the same size will be announced soon.

[...]

Belcher, one of the world’s foremost experts in Bitcoin privacy, recently published a detailed outline of how the CoinSwap technique could, in fact, be done right. The developer — who previously authored the Bitcoin privacy guide and helmed development of both JoinMarket and the Electrum Personal Server — addressed a range of potential privacy leaks, and envisioned a JoinMarket-type of liquidity market to mix coins. (Additional solutions include multi-transaction swaps to counter amount correlation, transaction routing to avoid single points of trust for privacy and fidelity bonds to make denial-of-service attacks costly.)

A working CoinSwap implementation would represent another big step forward for Bitcoin privacy. Although tools like CoinJoin are out there, and do offer privacy, these do often still reveal that the tools themselves were used. CoinSwap transactions, in contrast, could be made indistinguishable from regular transactions. This not only benefits CoinSwap users themselves, but everyone else too, as blockchain analysts could no longer safely assume that regular-looking transactions were in fact regular transactions — they might just as well have been CoinSwap transactions.

That last point is important; and it applies to Payjoin, too.  If a significant number of people were to use Payjoin and CoinSwap, Chainalysis would be sad because their heuristics would become generally unreliable.  Mass-surveillance would be more difficult, and fungibility would be improved.  It would not be perfect—far from it—but this is a huge step in the right direction!
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October 05, 2020, 03:41:12 PM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

is bitcorn ded yet?

asking for a friend...


You missed it man, it died last year. Or was it 2017? Or was it 2013? Oh heck, I can't recall. Pretty sure it was in China though. Ask a no-coiner, they're more likely to remember.
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October 05, 2020, 03:47:22 PM


What is the monthly maintenance cost of owning a unit? I imagine keeping a crew employed is not cheap.

The website doesn't seem to go into the details.

Still haven't announced it yet so we're just putting together the details. I need to work with the ship management company I hired to work out the costs per cabin. My back of the envelope calculations puts it at a couple hundred dollars monthly per cabin but we have all of October to work that out before sales begin in November.

What size are we talking about here?

Looks like a good place to self-exile. Or semi-retire (or just retire, live on your bitcoins or something.)

What kind of gym equipment does it have? The pictures on the website depict what looks like Rogue Fitness rigs and racks, aka CrossFit / Powerlifting / Strongman type equipment.

The pictures on the website are just generic pictures right now. We have to have filler material until we actually fly to the ship and take pictures ourselves.
Honestly the gym on this ship is not very huge but there is a climbing wall and a running track on the upper deck and we will certainly be focusing on health and self improvement.

Yeah, I could see it being that low if the all of the restaurants, cafes, vendors, etc. are profitable or at least not losing money.

Could be a good investment if you can rent out your cabin when you're not using it.

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October 05, 2020, 03:53:12 PM

Not going near that rickety old tub. Last time I went on a boat, Very Bad Things happened to my wallet. Never again.
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October 05, 2020, 04:12:10 PM

And custody of the girlfriend?  If she’s of a cryptokinky bent, get her into the blockchain per consensus rules.

Well, it all depends on if she's nice. If she is, and I also have the coinz, you guys are so fucked.
Not. I would never think to steal someone else's woman coinz. Wink





Now that's a bull. Skinny one, but at least got his balls and horns right - maybe even the attitude.



Why can't we grow hookers? Next level...  Grin

Glory holes first, we need to take this slow.
Also need to be practical, and always have decentralization in mind. Cool



Sideways in a bull market:

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October 05, 2020, 04:22:20 PM

... this is a better idea than sea-steading, or better version of it rather. I've wondered why this hasn't been considered in the past as there already exists a community of 'international' citizens that cruise the world continuously, albeit generally retired.
With all the cruise industry liners sitting idle due to CoVid there will be some bargains coming on the market. You could design a moving city by lashing together a fleet of them that slowly rotates around the world on some schedule or another, maybe with the ocean gyre currents and drops anchor outside welcoming nations for commerce and trade occasionally. Then you could lash on an oil tanker to up the range for the fleet, or a container vessel and barge for commercial/industrial activities/ The engineering is already done, the modules are already built, they call them big boats.

^ Got yourself a vacant cruise ship (conveniently already registered in a tax haven)?

MS Satoshi
Oh yes, I bought a cruise ship
The Crypto Cruise Ship



Wow, are you serious? That's a bit bigger than a seastead. Is it this actual one that you are refitting to be bitcoin-oriented?


Sounds like an interesting venture, Elwar. Congrats! Any timeshare presentations we can attend to check it out for a few nights free?

Yep, that is a render of the actual ship we purchased (which we are not allowed to name) refitted with our logos.

245 meters long, 777 cabins.

Cabins starting at $25,000. The auction for the rooms starts November 5th.

https://ocean.builders/cruiseship

We'll be accepting bitcoin at all businesses on the ship.

The problem with buying a cruise ship has usually been about the cost. COVID allowed us to get a good deal but that won't last forever.

Our plan is to have it anchored about 30 minutes from Panama City further conserving costs by not burning much fuel.
Near the ship we will put a barge or cargo ship to act as a floating factory to build other floating structures such as Ocean Builders SeaPods and floating islands.
It makes sense to try such floating living close to shore first without jumping straight to 200nm out. Living on the water gives some small freedoms we don't have on shore but also comes with other maritime laws we don't have on land. We will need to build communities to benefit from the new system in ways we do not now know.

Quote
Cruise ship living sounds expensive as shit... but what do I know...

If you were to have the level of hospitality that cruises offer on land it would be expensive as well. We will have to prepare people for the reality that this isn't a vacation, this is your home where you work and pay for your own meals and entertainment. You would get bored of the cruise life after a few weeks. But if you're busy working then it's not much different from living in the dorms at school. Small rooms but most of the time you're out on campus or if you're in your room you're studying your ass off.


Interesting it seems you can get one for cheap from the scrapyard: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-turkey-ships-idUSKBN26O0LC
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October 05, 2020, 04:43:54 PM

where my hopium pipe is?
oh here
https://www.crypto-news-flash.com/sec-chairman-open-for-tokenized-etf-hope-for-bitcoin/

oh wait
Quote
We’re willing to try that. Our door is wide open. If you want to show how to tokenize the ETF product in a way that adds efficiency, we want to meet with you, we want to facilitate that.
#derp
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October 05, 2020, 05:02:47 PM

either you can twit from jail or Sam Reed, who the paid thugs arrested for BitMex things, seems to be out
https://twitter.com/STRML_/likes
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October 05, 2020, 05:09:05 PM
Merited by Philipma1957cellphone (1)

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October 05, 2020, 05:22:43 PM

Observing 10721.
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October 05, 2020, 05:31:36 PM

Observing 10721.

I want 11000 by midnight
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October 05, 2020, 05:56:57 PM

Trump qualify = positive impact on market.

Biden qualify = negative impact on market.

That's it.........
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October 05, 2020, 06:08:45 PM

Interesting it seems you can get one for cheap from the scrapyard

They still cost money.  But yes, would be nice to get one of CCL Fantasy class ships that are just getting scraped in Aliaga. I guess budged was not high enough for that.

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October 05, 2020, 06:28:37 PM
Merited by 600watt (1)

This is the same problem as with “plausible deniability” idiot-bait:  The real world does not work this way!  In the real world, if an investigator gets a 90% probability, or even a 10% probability linking transactions, then that is what is called an “investigative lead” to be pursued and confirmed with other evidence.  Or maybe just used in other ways, if someone who wants to get you just isn’t too picky about “proof”.

...

Most Internet-armchair security “experts” have no fucking idea how detectives actually work.  Evidence does NOT need to be “proof” to be very, very useful.

Wasabi Wallet does Payjoin!  This is separate from, and additional to, their CoinJoin implementation.
JoinMarket also does Payjoin:

...

That last point is important; and it applies to Payjoin, too.  If a significant number of people were to use Payjoin and CoinSwap, Chainalysis would be sad because their heuristics would become generally unreliable.  Mass-surveillance would be more difficult, and fungibility would be improved.  It would not be perfect—far from it—but this is a huge step in the right direction!

I understand everything you are saying. It would be a good idea to have a good attorney too, who can muddle up all those 10% findings.

I've been watching CoinJoin when it was some thread titled "Taint me rich" or something.

On the one hand, if you're a target, you are a target, and there is little you can do about any other surveillance they set up on you or tracking or whatever. You're screwed no matter what, unless you "ghost" and just disappear completely. (or at least, your transactions just disappear, the easiest way is to just stop for right now.)

But if you're not yet a target, you can hide or blend with the crowd and never be singled out in the first place.

So ideally, all those payjoins, coinjoins, coinswaps ... as well as using multiple exchanges, preferably the decentralized ones, swapping from one coin to an alt and then back (if needed) or using that alt to do your transactions... you get the picture. (or you don't, which implies no one else does.)


What a lot of people forget, is that in the real world, there is "real" security... sometimes known as physical security. You get aware of this if you've served any amount of time in the police or military forces, or you just plain like your 2nd amendment (for those folks in the USA) and carry daily.

I come from a country (the Philippines) that does not have it as a right in our constitution, but more so a right as an individual that we have practiced to keep since many other nations have tried to invade or colonize us over the centuries. I just treat everything as NPE (non permissive environment).
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October 05, 2020, 06:38:07 PM

Reply to Jay is below.  First things first...

https://twitter.com/stephendpalley/status/1311694266389929986

Quote
BREAKING: CFTC sues Bitmex, Arthur Hayes "to enjoin their ongoing illegal offering of commodity derivatives to U.S. persons, their acceptance of funds to margin derivatives transactions from individuals and entities in the U.S., & their operation of a derivatives trading platform

yay the drama we need
BitMEX CTO got arrested.
(etc...)

Smooth move.

I have noticed that many sites nowadays ban Americans together with the slaves “citizens” of other notoriously “free” countries, such as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

I always get a laugh when I see the United States on one of those “rogue state people, go away” TOS lists.  Too bad—it must pretty much suck for any sane individual Americans and/or North Koreans.

BitMEX and the mobile apps issued under BMEX are wholly owned and operated by HDR Global Trading Limited, a Republic of Seychelles incorporated entity or its relevant authorised affiliates.

BitMEX did not offer anything to “U.S. persons”!

Pre-blowup archive for reference: https://web.archive.org/web/20200930062121/https://www.bitmex.com/app/terms
Quote
You are not allowed to access or use the Services or the Trading Platform if you are located, incorporated or otherwise established in, or a citizen or resident of: (i) the United States of America, the province of Ontario in Canada, the province of Québec in Canada, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China, the Republic of Seychelles, Bermuda, Cuba, Crimea and Sevastopol, Iran, Syria, North Korea or Sudan;

Perhaps the people cheering this personally abide by all North Korean laws and regulations?



Whereas if jurisdiction is lacking, then why should a defendant suffer trial before a court lacking proper authority, for alleged violation of laws that do not bind the defendant?  

Of course in the law, there are various issues that are considered threshold issues, and of course, jurisdiction is one of those areas.

[...]

Sometimes attorneys will argue issues that are further up the ladder because if they end up losing on some of the more foundational / threshold issues and they present NO arguments on the other matters, then they would end up losing everything merely based on losing on the threshold issue.  Some lawyers and clients are going to be more willing to stick to ONLY arguing the one issue - but many times, they do end up arguing the other issues, too, while at the same time NOT waiving their right to be totally correct on the foundational/threshold issue that allows the bringing of the case in the first place.

[...]

The law can be pretty god damned crazy, sometimes, because it is NOT really uncommon for attorneys to make internally inconsistent arguments, just to make sure that their bases are all covered - but frequently also, they will make their strongest arguments first, and sometimes cut off weaker arguments in order to NOT seem to be grappling at straws ... but I would think that the vast majority of western judges are well able to accept that parties will sometimes make inconsistent arguments... but still tactically, sometimes, it may well be better to just stick to the stronger arguments and to eliminate the weaker and inconsistent arguments or the non-threshold arguments - like you seem to be suggesting.

Of course, I did not intend to suggest what the BitMEX legal strategy should be.

When the client’s life, liberty, and/or property are on the line, then unless the client wants to take a huge legal risk merely to grandstand, it would be negligent malpractice for an attorney to omit such arguments in the alternative as may be available to him.

“This jurisdiction’s laws do not bind my client, and this court lacks proper authority to try my client—but dear honourable court of improper authority, here is why my client did not even violate the laws that do not bind him.”

It looks damn sleazy, and it is—but the legal system is sleazy.  The problem is institutional and systemic.  There is no reason to make a martyr of oneself by pretending that it isn’t.

Whereas this forum is NOT the court.  And I am not an attorney-at-law representing the BitMEX (HDR) corporation and/or its executives.

Thus, I will take a stand and say, first of all, explain just why the fuck the United States is pretending to have jurisdiction here.  What is the American CFTC, a god?



Why am I so vehement about this?  Besides general principle, that is.

On the other hand, it is possible that you and I (or one of us) might find out that Bitmex's behavior was more egregious than we had earlier considered, and we might adjust our opinions or maybe the strength of our opinion(s) might change with the learning of new facts and logic.

I do NOT like scammy exchanges.  Indeed, earlier this year on this forum, I got booted out of DT2 because I was gunning too hard for Yobit.  (A DT1 who was previously on good terms with me suddenly ~attacked me in another thread within 2 hours of starting to defend Yobit from me; the timestamps make the motive quite transparent.)  Now, that is a scammy exchange—but I digress...

BitMEX has always had a sterling reputation.  Now, due to this American action, I suddenly see people convicting them in the “court of public opinion”—it seems just because “American CFTC said so”.  If BitMEX were doing something really wrong, and if the evidence were brought out, then I would be the first to condemn the wrongdoing.  (Whether or not the Americans have the right to prosecute it would be another matter—they are NOT the world-police.)  But that is not what I have been seeing, these past few days.

Meanwhile, just yesterday, I popped into the BSV thread for the first time (Loyce.club archive, just in case).  And today, what do I there behold?

Third post by a “Newbie” account, obvious shill:
Re: [ANN] [BSV] BitcoinSV - Satoshi's Vision for Bitcoin
Quote
https://coingeek.com/coingeek-live-2020-regulating-the-digital-assets-industry-is-key-to-future-growth/

CoinGeek Live 2020: Regulating the digital assets industry is key to future growth
 
The days when digital assets were considered a lawless wild west which was beyond the reach of regulators is way behind us. On Day 1 of the CoinGeek Live conference, some of the leading minds in the legal industry discussed the regulation of the digital asset industry, letting us in on how to build a compliant Bitcoin business in the U.S., Japan and the European Union.

While regulators started off on the back foot in policing the digital assets industry, most of them are now catching up, Joshua Ashley Klayman told the virtual audience. Klayman is a senior counsel at Linklaters LLP, a London-based law firm with over 3,000 lawyers across the world. Based in New York, Klayman works with digital asset companies that are seeking to get into the U.S. market.

“It’s been said many times that there’s a lack of regulatory clarity. I think at this point, that’s just an excuse. I think if you engage with the regulators, you can find a path forward,” she remarked.

[...]

The subject is interesting, without trust no regulation... without regulation... no state therefore no existence. All open and in conformity with the laws. This is not the case for many other coins.

Compare:

Bitcoin is a 'common good'.
Bitmex was damaging it by 100x margin, as easy as this.
btc going down 1% wipes out the 100X long position.
can a 1btc account spoof? No. can a 10K-100K btc account do the same on mex? Absolutely.
We have speed limit signs on most highways, right? Same idea.
Bitmex is no autobahn.

I would not shear a single tear if mex is gone or curtailed (after allowing outgoing btc transfers, of course).

Resistance to the “ZOMG we need to regulate it!!! kowtow to the regulators” attitude is a major Bitcoin issue—and resistance to American world-police megalomania is a major issue to anybody who does not want to be a slave.
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October 05, 2020, 06:54:03 PM

I was offered sex today, by a 21 year old girl. In exchange for that, I was supposed to advertise some kind of bathroom cleaner to my friends. Of course I declined because I am a person of high moral standards with a strong willpower. Just as strong as Ajax, the super strong bathroom cleaner. Now available scented with lemon or vanilla.
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October 05, 2020, 07:12:16 PM
Last edit: October 05, 2020, 07:27:21 PM by Biodom

Much improvement in btc chart since bitmex "happenings"...those f--kers were causing this endless barting-debarting, I strongly suspect.
Is there a potential causation or at least correlation? We shall see in 1 mo.
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October 05, 2020, 08:14:27 PM
Last edit: October 05, 2020, 08:32:26 PM by LFC_Bitcoin
Merited by 600watt (1)

Much improvement in btc chart since bitmex "happenings"...those f--kers were causing this endless barting-debarting, I strongly suspect.
Is there a potential causation or at least correlation? We shall see in 1 mo.


I expect a fairly significant move up in Q4 of 2020 but it’s just a bit boring & frustrating now waiting. I’m quite confident we’ll end the year over $13,000 which would set us up fantastically for the expected fireworks at some point in 2021. We’ve got to be expecting upwards of $50,000 per coin before 2022.

My bags are full & heavy, I’ve been waiting many years for what’s coming.......  

Just to show how much room we have for growth -



@ecoinometrics
For context a $2 trillion market cap for #Bitcoin  would put one BTC at $100,000.

That's also the same market cap as Apple.

To reach the market cap of gold, one BTC would be worth about $500,000.

There is plenty of upside to come.
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