Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BobLawblaw]

https://twitter.com/yegorpetr0v/status/1304467299139817472
"#hodl strong"

[OutOfMemory]

https://zoom.earth/#view=43.6352,-122.9216,8z/date=2020-09-11,09:40,-7/layers=fires

Looks like half the planet is burning

Looks like the devil's home is brazil 

[JayJuanGee]

So, for example, if the payoff for betting correctly is 5%, but the loss of betting incorrectly is 1%, but the odds of getting the 5% is 2/5 because the trader has good predictive skills and is able to hit with that level of precision, then surely if the trader has assessed the odds correctly, then largely in the long term for every 5 times that the trader plays those odds, s/he will get 5% twice, and s/he will lose 1% three times, which seems to be decent profits of somewhere in the ballpark of 7% from those 5 trades.

Jay, let’s take this as scientific gambling:  Pop those numbers into the Kelly criterion!

If I believed that SwayStar could reliably gain 5% on even close to 40/60 odds (acknowledging that that’s just your off-the-cuff example probability, not what she claimed) versus 1% losses, then I would practically beg her to let me send her all of my money right now, on agreement to let her keep half the profit (or hell, even most of it) as a management fee—just keep hitting those trades!  Because I would get rich quick that way.

Really, do a little back-of-the-envelope calculation.  Geometric growth (what Kelly addresses) is funny.  “Turn 0.005 BTC into 1 BTC” kind of funny, and more.

Of course, I’m not exactly doing that.  Just call me a skeptic.

If the trader realistically assess the odds of a price move - yeah, sure a BIG "if" because frequently the assignment of odds is not very accurate, [...]

Yeah, I understand that the odds are never going to be that clear to assess, so in that regard, the devil is in the details, because usually the odds are not going to be so easy to figure out.

Yeah... about that...

Also, some traders roll their profits into their trading stash, and other traders will take some profits off the table on a regular basis in order to use for living expenses or just to stack away some of their profits.

If you could be certain of the odds, and if the odds are EV+, Kelly bets that roll profits back into the pot are, of course, mathematically optimal for growth in the sense of “I no longer care what the market does, because my portfolio already went to the moon”.  Confirmed science, lulz.  (Hey, there’s that “IF” again.)

We likely realize that normies will do the wrong thing, even if they can accurately assess the odds, so in one sense, if we take out one of the variables (regarding assessing the odds), then the only step would thereafter to be to set up a system that takes advantage of those odds in order that you are always winning when you let the system play out (because you know the odds).

Sure, in bitcoin we might not exactly know the odds, but many of us who have gotten into bitcoin did so because we had concluded that the odds of it going UP in the long run were greater than the odds of it going DOWN, even though in the short run we might end up witnessing a lot of DOWN and a lot of SIDEWAYS that was NOT our preference, but if we ended up being correct that in the long run BTC would end up going UP, then so long as we were somewhat weighted towards UP, then the whole bet ends up being a patience game to wait out the term.

There are additional strategies that can be employed also, if you add an additional variable regarding taking advantage of volatility.  No asset that is somewhat tied to free market forces is going to go up in a straight line, so in that process we can anticipate that volatility is almost inevitable in BTC, so there are ways to structure your BTC strategy and approach to take advantage of near inevitable volatility.  Again, you are not changing your overall presumption that the asset is going up in price, so in that regard, your whole position is always biased in favor of UPward movement at all times, even if you fairly strongly convicted that the price is going down in the short term, you continue to bias your portfolio towards up, in order that you never lose in the long run, even if in the short term you will likely lose some value if the shorter term down ends up playing out as you anticipated.

So, ultimately, even if you play around with volatility and downward bets along the way, so long as you are continuously structurally biased towards upward BTC price movements, then the only thing that you ultimately need to be correct about is that the BTC price is going up in the long run... and so far in BTC's history, we have witnessed that it has ultimately gone up, even if while there has been some periods of more than 3 years of down, flat and failure to get back to certain previous high price points.. but if you are holding 4 years or longer, so far in BTC's history any single satoshi that you would have bought would have been profitable on that time frame.  

Of course, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance, but many of us still recognize that there remain decent prospects for anyone investing four years or longer in terms of at least having some level of preservation of value and even profits so long as they are mostly betting on up, which largely means accumulating BTC and regular DCA, buying on dips and HODL have been amongst the best of the core strategies (which also means strive to engage in strategies that do not put yourself in a position, at any point, in which you have to sell any of your BTC, except at a point that is completely of your own choosing)..

[Last of the V8s]

A spanking new banking paradigm has been unveiled



Money needs no longer to keep people in chains.

[philipma1957]

It feels like the calm before a storm, I think we’re going to get a Q4 bullish rally.

It's trying hard to cross $10,500. Good thing is that we are not going under $10k. Even if we go we are bouncing back almost immediately.

We are going to brush past  14000 in under a month.

https://www.nicehash.com/my/miner/....6oHLGnnrVAf1hC3WV2RBXZ2HNs....
CURRENT PROFITABILITY / 24H
0.00457303 BTC
≈ $47.03

This is my gpu daily earning rate. As long as it is over 40 it means btc is underpriced compared to eth.

Every time I post here for the next 30 days I will drag that info from my nicehash account to this thread.

As long as it is higher then 40 (more complex then that but good enough for now)  it means there is extra demand for BTC from nicehash mining.

six hours later:

CURRENT PROFITABILITY / 24H
0.00516597 BTC
≈ $53.31



so demand is still happening for btc  via eth to btc auto vert

[cAPSLOCK]

Just seeing this for the first time.  Damn, I like it.  Though you probably want to research the properties of your washer material carefully, if you want for it to be fire-resistant, etc.  Compare Jameson Lopp’s trials of various seed-storage products.

Most importantly, this requires no Bitcoin-specific hardware purchases that are usually infeasible to make anonymously.  Inexpensive materials available at any hardware store, and maybe even already on-hand in your garage—excellent!


Final edit:  Thinking over those numbers, and the BIP 39 use of a bit of PBKDF2, I am slightly revising down my estimates of how many lost washers you can recover.  I am accustomed to thinking pessimistically from a defender’s perspective, and thus making somewhat liberal assumptions about what a cracker can do.  Whereas I don’t want to dose people with hopium about how many lost seed words they can get back, realistically.  Let’s put it this way:  I would not be surprised if somebody can crack 4 words on high-end home PC hardware in a semi-reasonable time; but if you rely on doing that, you may be in for a lot of pain!

Yeah.  I liked it too and did it.



Using those stamps is pretty hard work on little washers.  I also bought cheap ($10) engraver off ebay that is much easier to use, though not quite as "official" looking.

[Searing]

A spanking new banking paradigm has been unveiled



Money needs no longer to keep people in chains.

J'accuse!

Them's not Bankers! (or I need to bank somewhere else!)

So sad. My view of Bankers would 'brighten' considerably.....indeed!

brad

[Torque]

https://zoom.earth/#view=43.6352,-122.9216,8z/date=2020-09-11,09:40,-7/layers=fires

Looks like half the planet is burning

Looks like the devil's home is brazil  

That's just his summer home. His main residence appears to be Angola/Zambia/Mozambique.

[JayJuanGee]

@nullius you can indeed become rich but after around 200k contracts slippage and stophunting absolutely wreck my strategy so its gonna slow down from there, so i would be in no place to accept anyones money either way lmao.

Here is a case-in-point in which a trader might over play the odds from time to time, or miscalculate the odds, and then instead of being a sure deal, it only takes one out of 100 bets, then all of a sudden all of the profits have been lost, or some variation of that scenario, which ends up being a kind of martingale betting rather than strategic plays that are structured in such a way to always be profitable.  The trader ends up getting greedy.

A more reasonable way to lose all the value would be that each bet is prudent, and the odds are supposed to be something like 7/10 wins and for some reason, the streak will keep hitting on the 3/10 outcome, until the total profits (and maybe even principle) is lost - even if the trader might only be playing 1% each time, after 100 losing bets in a row, the profits have long been removed, and there is only so much principle that is left (bet size keeps getting smaller, smaller and smaller), but if a trader is only betting 1% each time, it will take a whole hell of a long time to completely deplete the trading stash, merely that the trading stash shrinks.

Many traders cannot stick to such a system of betting only 1% per trade when the actual amount keeps shrinking, so they frequently will start to bet larger amounts that does not end up being sustainable... especially on a long losing streak... gravitating into a kind of martingale betting approach, which is NOT sustainable.

Of course, there are some traders who stick to a more sustainable system, and they stack away their profits while keeping their trading stash reasonable, and even they might suffer through vary long losing streaks that cause the size of their bets to keep shrinking and perhaps causing them to question themselves in terms of the amount of profit that is even possible upon a win (because the trading stash had continued to shrink by so much on the long losing streak).

and its not usually actually 5:1 odds, i just gave that as example, in real life itd be much more slower and safer if i was trading with a significant amount of money than what i showed in that challenge thread

You did not show slower and safer in that thread, anyhow, as far as I can remember.  

On several occasions, you did not show your work, either... which surely is problematic if you are trying to get people to become confidence in your abilities to employ a sustainable and profitable approach to BTC trading.

 No, I don’t buy that it will become a “world reserve currency”;

It does not need to be a world reserve currency to be a good investment.

that’s a terribly naïve proposition, whereas it will never be allowed by bankers who can’t control it—bankers who control tens of trillions of dollars in assets, own governments and thus militaries, tanks, ICBMs, and nuclear weapons, start wars at the drop of a hat, topple governments like toys and kill millions of people...

Sure there might be some battles along the way.  They do not control everything now, even though they strive to.  They are never going to control anything, and bitcoin provides an additional tool that removes some of that control (not all of it, but some of it).

 Do you really suppose that their lunch can be eaten by some software on the Internet, which, by the way, they also own and could shut down at any time?

Their lunch does not have to be eaten.

Bitcoin is already successful in providing an additional tool, and it will likely continue to provide additional tools in the future.   It could take 50 or 100 years to pass before we might see real large and meaningful changes (and the vast majority of is will be dead), but we do not need to see all of those changes, because we already have more options because of bitcoin... Thank you, king daddy.

If Bitcoin fails, there is really nothing else to shield us from being crushed into total, inescapable enslavement through the lethal combination of scam fractional-reserve “money”, total financial surveillance, and KYC-everything permission systems.

There's barter.

Bitcoin gives us some freedom of action to strive to obtain more freedom—if we choose to do so.

All other freedoms depend on financial freedom.  For only one example, just try to exercise the freedom of speech if financial censorship and financial surveillance can be used to ensure that you cannot buy even a crust of bread without permission, and you can be physically located at any time.  For only one example.

I mostly agree about these points.

[BobLawblaw]

A spanking new banking paradigm has been unveiled

Money needs no longer to keep people in chains.

My Russian is barely there, but doesn't that verbiage in the back roughly translate to "A bank you can be tied to" ?

[Last of the V8s]

yerp.

all the joeks in replies https://imgur.com/gallery/tXFhL9t

[JayJuanGee]

A spanking new banking paradigm has been unveiled



Money needs no longer to keep people in chains.

J'accuse!

Them's not Bankers! (or I need to bank somewhere else!)

So sad. My view of Bankers would 'brighten' considerably.....indeed!

brad

Surely, those chiquitas seem to fit the definition of booth babes.

JJG finally found someone to have a race with 😝
Good luck brother!

I feel a wee bit outgunned.



Like I am out of my league.

 

[Dabs]

I don’t think that obfuscation is in any way useful to protect you there.  Indeed, it is more likely to frustrate you—after you forget how you obfuscated.  Just rely on keeping the whole thing secret, which it needs to be anyway.

The whole thing should be a secret and stored safely. Buried in your backyard, a fake drain pipe, or even in your usual safe (behind a fake wall, or behind a painting). You should also have multiple backups in different locations, and possibly another one in a location different than where you live or work.

Using steel makes it fireproof (or rather fire resistant), but not rust proof. You'd need stainless or other metals or alloys for that.

People regularly keep books and other important documents very safe, so doing steel washers and nuts and bolts are just fun things. Paper wallet in an envelope or folder, plastic or even something stamped metal would all be fine if stored together where you store other valuables. Some of you guys have gun safes, or just normal "Sentry" branded safes, those are fire resistant and relatively water protected already.

I once used "plausible deniability" in the form of my laptop dual booting. The default boot mode required no password and boots to either freshly installed Linux Mint or some Windows 98 crap (which I'll probably upgrade to Windows 10) and some downloaded free videos, my resume, and assorted bank files and bills. In order to boot to the second partition I needed to enter a password within 30 seconds, otherwise it would boot the first partition.

These days, I just get lazy and don't bother. Anything I need to keep secret I simply do not bring with me on my laptop and access it remotely, securely, from my home server.

I travel with kids, we always skip the lines, even during this pandemic.


To note, I have been intending to buy a hardware wallet, either a trezor or a ledger, yet feel hesistant, after all these years. And one could say I know enough about bitcoin and the possibility of being hacked or losing them and have been around awhile. I'm doing fine without one so far. Yes, I still want to get one, just haven't pulled the trigger.

[JayJuanGee]

It feels like the calm before a storm, I think we’re going to get a Q4 bullish rally.

I do miss those prediction games.
So here is mine:

Q4, 31 Dec 2020, 00.00 UTC, $17651-$17700

I am not going to say that it is not possible, but there is a bit of a problem with any BTC price predictions for the end of the year that are between $17,250 and about $23,500 - that is the deadman's zone.. which just means that we are NOT too likely to spend much time there... so sure, you could end up being correct because we are passing through the deadman's zone and it happens to hit on your numbers.

Personally, I believe the more likely numbers are either below $17,250 or above $23,500 - and personally I think that it would be too optimistic to achieve above $23,500 in just 3.5 months - therefore $14k to $17,250 seem more likely by the end of the year...

Anyhow, just a game of probabilities rather than any kind of certainty, that's for sure.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

My prediction for end of 2020 was $13,000 to $14,000. I’m going to have to stick to my initial prediction although clearly I’d like the price to be higher. I don’t think it’ll be lower than $13,000, I am quite sure of that.  

[Indymoney]

My prediction for end of 2020 was $13,000 to $14,000. I’m going to have to stick to my initial prediction although clearly I’d like the price to be higher. I don’t think it’ll be lower than $13,000, I am quite sure of that.  

Most chances this is going to happen because sometime ago I was feeling this is going to around $15,000 to $17,000 but currently its under pressure so most chances going around $14,000 to $15,000 is sure until end of this year and bonus price is as I mention.

[JayJuanGee]

Who sold at the bottom?

Which one? 🤔🤔

As I type, do we either have a triple or a quadruple bottom, or maybe we have to make up some other kind of visual because these bottoms are starting to blend.

Maybe we have a blended bottom, currently?

It's messy out there boyz... be careful:

My clicking on one of Cryptotourist's earlier links caused me to come across the below Phil_S post (perhaps an overlooked classic) - which surely is a better visualization for what I was attempting to say a few days ago in my above post regarding: 1) so many (blended) bottoms and 2) "being careful" boyz.

All bottoms are behind now, in the rear-view mirror.

[Biodom]

EU developments:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/leak-eu-to-create-superbody-of-watchdogs-to-oversee-digital-currencies/

Interestingly,

The rules also impose the prohibition of granting any interests to holders of these digital assets.

This would cause a huge move of btc into US-based interest-generating custodial accounts (such as blockfi and celsius, maybe even Coinbase/Kraken)

[JayJuanGee]

Edit: Improved syntax.

holy cow.  You are a bot, too? was starting to get lonely around here with gembitz not posting as frequently

It's like you got a software update... 

 

My prediction for end of 2020 was $13,000 to $14,000. I’m going to have to stick to my initial prediction although clearly I’d like the price to be higher. I don’t think it’ll be lower than $13,000, I am quite sure of that.  

I am having some trouble with $13k to $14k, too, in terms of a sticking range.

Our previous local high from 2019 was $13,880, so in order to have any chance of getting stuck in the $13,000s, we would have to go up to $17,250 or maybe even higher first, and then correct back down.  So, I suppose that kind of correction back down into the $13ks and getting stuck there for a while (including the end of the year) is a possibility.

Otherwise, I cannot just see getting stuck in the $13ks on the way up (presuming we go up at some point, soon^tm)... I am not even sure if I can see decent odds of getting stuck in the $12ks, because even that is starting to feel as if it is too close to $13,880, even though currently, I am starting to appreciate that we could, perhaps, get stuck in the $11ks in the coming months (but I am having quite a few doubts that getting stuck could last until the end of the year, given our macro circumstances).  

Call me a stickler.. or just call me a contrarian... always wanting to poke holes in the ideas of other usually nice peeps.      #nohomo

[proudhon]

Looks like we're consolidating upward in a false bull flag formation. High leverage shorting looks very promising from here.