Analysis

[masterluc]

Yeah, daily adx 65 suggests bottom somewhere here (by time)

[1715111400]

1715111400

[Fatman3001]

Any thoughts on how the stock market crash might affect BTC price movement? Is it relevant?

[masterluc]

Any thoughts on how the stock market crash might affect BTC price movement? Is it relevant?

Bitcoin shows delayed convergence with gold, watch gold

[Fatman3001]

Any thoughts on how the stock market crash might affect BTC price movement? Is it relevant?

Bitcoin shows delayed convergence with gold, watch gold

thx

[masterluc]

Probably goes to 170.

[meh32123]

LOL, I sell and the we go up again =)

[meh32123]

The log trend channel got updated ;-)

[Barney]

Probably goes to 170.

Thanks for sharing.

Since "iron indicator" 200 weekly SMA is broken now, do you see a possibility for a mid-term uptrend at all?

[masterluc]

Probably goes to 170.

Thanks for sharing.

Since "iron indicator" 200 weekly SMA is broken now, do you see a possibility for a mid-term uptrend at all?

It is not broken yet. I repeat, beware bear trap, daily adx at 65! Gold and euro rally! It may go down further and/or reverse sharply.

[smoothie]

Probably goes to 170.

Thanks for sharing.

Since "iron indicator" 200 weekly SMA is broken now, do you see a possibility for a mid-term uptrend at all?

It is not broken yet. I repeat, beware bear trap, daily adx at 65! Gold and euro rally! It may go down further and/or reverse sharply.

I presume you would consider it "broken" if the weekly candle closed below 200 weekly SMA?

[masterluc]

Yes. Here is 9 moves from top. It is completed 3-extended impulse. Bottom is somewhere here by time.

[ImI]

i guess 207 means resistance...

[masterluc]

Need a time for this move to complete and see market reaction. I still stand on sideways 200-300 (weekly bb borders) range trading for a long time.

However this channel hint from bitfinex is not far exception

[masterluc]

The current picture reminds me beginning of 2012

Current


The 2012 similar situation, first 1/3 of chart


If I am right and price will leave bearish market in 2012 style, then we will have one-two years more of sideways.

[8up]

The current picture reminds me beginning of 2012

Current


The 2012 similar situation, first 1/3 of chart


If I am right and price will leave bearish market in 2012 style, then we will have one-two years more of sideways.

The bitcoin hype is over. This seems very reasonable and gives the crypto space the much needed time time to get its shit together. A stable market for the next 1.5 years could be very well the blind spot of most market participants.

[SmoothCurves]

The current picture reminds me beginning of 2012

Current


The 2012 similar situation, first 1/3 of chart


If I am right and price will leave bearish market in 2012 style, then we will have one-two years more of sideways.

The bitcoin hype is over. This seems very reasonable and gives the crypto space the much needed time time to get its shit together. A stable market for the next 1.5 years could be very well the blind spot of most market participants.

1.5 years is enough to shake out just about all weak hands. Then what? A rally to 21k?

[Eivind Nag]

masterluc:

Do you assume the 152 bottom was C?

From 0 to 1150 bitcoin was an endless source of impulse waves and pretty nice ABC / wedge corrections. Sure, it wasn't easy to get the wave count correct but you could clearly recognize impulse waves everywhere at all scales. There was a reason you could call the top with some confidence.

After 1150 its just an ocean of corrective waves as far as i can see. If 152 was C it would be reasonable to expect that the corrective waves would be replaced by impulse waves. Look at the run up to 317, that is not a pretty sight.

And look at the recovery from the 198 low now, a rally like that should be a symphony of impulse waves that iterated nicely, but its not, its just corrective waves and zigzags.

What is your take on this?



 

[masterluc]

masterluc:

Do you assume the 152 bottom was C?

From 0 to 1150 bitcoin was an endless source of impulse waves and pretty nice ABC / wedge corrections. Sure, it wasn't easy to get the wave count correct but you could clearly recognize impulse waves everywhere at all scales. There was a reason you could call the top with some confidence.

After 1150 its just an ocean of corrective waves as far as i can see. If 152 was C it would be reasonable to expect that the corrective waves would be replaced by impulse waves. Look at the run up to 317, that is not a pretty sight.

And look at the recovery from the 198 low now, a rally like that should be a symphony of impulse waves that iterated nicely, but its not, its just corrective waves and zigzags.

What is your take on this?

5-3-5 flat correction since ATH looks good however. Since my suppositional C @152 there were strong impulses with rising volume. I recognize this as bulls awakening. But they are only woken up and started some bullish development. Bulls don't have enough power so far to quickly deal with post-bearish market shock.

So here is a battle now, a lot of bull and bear traps for thrend changing. I don't count it as it is too early to do this. I only see bullish awakening in its early stage.

Furthermore, I recognize Bitcoin as living creature, as superposition of all its intelligent participants. And it has a feature - it is a currency. And volatility for currency is bad. So after volatility this creature goes to calm. So after a bullish and bearish storm it tries to calm to allow itself to be a currency. To allow people for some time to buy and sell goods and services without looking back for volatility. Market does range lock - and here it is. $230-$250 for two years. Good? Absolutely.

These calm aspirations of bitcoin will rise with time, as it should be a currency. There will be decades of range lock in future during bitcoin times. Without regulation.

[findftp]

I recognize Bitcoin as living creature, as superposition of all its intelligent participants.

Nice quote, I fully agree.
Might even put it in my signature.

[CryptoLenin]

Agree with Luc. We are probably entering the silent phase for a year or more. We have a lot of time for historical III, it can last from 4 to ... years.