🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread

[tokeweed]

Just made my picks for the Multi Master.  Gonna wait for the weigh ins for my 20 USD degen parlay.  I hope I finally win something this time.  Lol.

Did you ever tried to calculate how much you have bet and how much you have won when betting on UFC fights ? I know you have been doing this just for fun, but still I am curious, if what has been posted here ever helped you place a right bet ?

Uh...  Don't remind me.    And been saying this in the football threads before, I bet small but the losses do add up.  Ask Trofo, he been winning all the side bets we do.  Lol.  But thinking more about it, it wouldn't be as bad as I think if I were to add everything up.

As for what info posted here that has helped me with bets?  Mmmm there are some posts that sway me but not always.  I just do my own thing mostly.

I'm due a fat win, but I'm not liking the looks of these match ups. Not sure whether to put a lower amount down, since a lot of these fights could go either way. I haven't won for a good couple of months now .

Me tooooo!  I haven't won anything since I started posting my lottery tickets.  -_-

Live weigh ins in an hour or so.  Let's see how these guys look on the scale.

UFC Fight Night 207: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik official weigh-in live stream
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haI3J0P1PUc

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[Welsh]

I'm definitely not in a profit although if I bet a little more wisely, i.e more singles, and short accumulators I'd probably be decent. Although, due to the way I do bet I'm definitely down, and I don't care for adding it all up either . That would probably be a rather depressing evening of counting.

Anyway, I'm going to try a new method this weekend. I'm actually going to watch the weigh ins, and actually base my bets on it, well at least the one's I haven't really got a strong opinion on. I've never done this before as I usually ignore the weigh ins, as I feel they can be misleading, and subjective based on how the fighters look. I mean look at Oliveira a few weeks ago missing weight, and then absolutely smashing it.

[tokeweed]

^  You were asking about Lucas Almeida...  After seeing his face off with Trizano, I think he has a chance.  They're both the same size.  Almieda is 3 - 1 in his last 4 match ups and those opponents have decent records.  Trizano on the other hand has more UFC experience but his only notable win was vs Klein.  Dunno..  but it could be close.  And Trizano tends to be inconsistent.

Here are the weigh in results.  I think I'm gonna go for Volkov in my lottery ticket.  He's waaay taller, watch the face off.  Lol.  I didn't think he'd be that tall.  And Volkov throws more volume.  So as long as he doesn't get hit like he did vs Lewis, he should be fine.  He also looks physically better this time around.

UFC Fight Night 207:  Weigh In Results

Alexander Volkov (256.5) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (259)
Movsar Evloev (146) vs Dan Ige (145.5)
Lucas Almeida (145.5) vs Michael Trizano (145.5)
Poliana Botelho (125.5) vs Karine Silva (125)
Zarrukh Adashev (125.5) vs Ode Osbourne (126)
Alonzo Menifield (205) vs Askar Mozharov (204.5)
Felice Herrig (115) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz (115.5)
Alex Da Silva (155.5) vs Joe Solecki (155.5)
Daniel Argueta (145.5) vs Damon Jackson (145.5)
Benoit Saint Denis (155.5) vs Niklas Stolze (156)
Tony Gravely (135.5) vs Johnny Munoz (135)
Jeff Molina (125.5) vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov (126)
Rinat Fakhretdinov (170.5) vs Andreas Michailidis (170.5)
JJ Aldrich (125) vs Erin Blanchfield (124.5)

[Welsh]

Right, I'm going to agree with tokeweed here. I'm letting the face offs impair my judgement . Here are my predictions (not necessarily what I'm putting on a betting slip):

Alexander Volkov
I'm thinking he keeps his distance, mitigates the haymaker attack with his superior height, and wins on a decision.

Movsar Evloev
I'll probably be betting Ige, but Evloev probably takes this one. Depends on how Ige manages in the first round.

Lucas Almeida
Karine Silva
Ode Osbourne
Askar Mozharov
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Alex da Silva
Damon Jackson
Niklas Stolze
Tony Gravely
Jeff Molina
Rinat Fakhretdinov
Erin Blanchfield

Has to be said I missed some of the weigh ins, although caught most of the main card. I'm quite excited for the Andreas Michailidis fight, as he's always pretty entertaining, although I probably do see him getting knocked out, as he can be quite wild swinging at times.

My most confident picks would be: Erin Blanchfield, Rinat Fakhretdinov, and Alex da Silva. Although, I probably won't be putting down much money this weekend, and keeping it for a future event.

[notblox1]

Anyway, I'm going to try a new method this weekend. I'm actually going to watch the weigh ins, and actually base my bets on it, well at least the one's I haven't really got a strong opinion on.

That is not a bad strategy, and I always take this in consideration with reach advantage and previous form.
It's not always working out correctly but combination of this two along with a gut feeling is giving me better results in mma betting.
Betting on underdogs can be riskier but rewards are much better if you catch them correctly.
I think bet on Jairzinho Rozenstruik might be good this time, but this is not betting suggestion

[TheNineClub]

Alexander Volkov
I'm thinking he keeps his distance, mitigates the haymaker attack with his superior height, and wins on a decision.

You are most likely right, however, I can't help but think of all of the times HWs failed to use their height advantage, so it's hard for me to take that as any factor. Volcov himself fell prey to this, Travis Browne was a bit better but not much, but the worst of them (regarding taking advantage of height difference) was Stefan Struve. Holly shit how bad he was at the whole distance thing. It seems to be the height advantage that comes into play in lower-weight classes.

[YuginKadoya]

Here are my picks for the upcoming UFC Fight Night Highlight in green are my picks

Alexander Volkov VS Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Both can win a Knockout win with just 1 punch, but I think Volkov will still  become very technical over Rozenstruik, and overall Volkov has a much more experience than Rozenstruik in my opinion, and if Jairzinho Rozenstruik would think of a takedown over Volkov, Alexander Volkov has great takedown defense, and if I compare these two men I would compare their fight with Ciryl Gane, on who has done more Alexander Volkov fight with Gane even though Gane was very quick to his feet and with his punches, Volkov surely have landed a counter shot, kicks, uppercuts, and has technically exchanging punches with Gane, while Rozenstruik versus Gane, Jairzinho Rozenstruik seems like he isn't active that much and he thought that this would be like his other contest that it would be easy to Knock Cyril Gane out but he was surprised to seeing the speed of Ciryl Gane, he literally become FrozenStruik inside the ring, so comparing this two to the heavyweight that I really like to watch and right now Volkov is the favorite with stake.com's odds 1.65 for Volkov while 2.42 for Rozenstruik, that is why I will go with Alexander Volkov,

Dan Ige VS Movsar Evloev

At first, I think I would go with Dan Ige but looking at his records and Evloev's records I pretty much have my second thought over it, his defeat to the Korean Zombie has proven that he can not improve anymore, and the Korean Zombie was really the badass on that fight now weaving his head and has more technical with his strikes so the evolution of the Korean Zombie, from a durable chin to a glass chin really make him solidify his boxing to the next level, while Movsar Evloev surely have great striking than Ige, and if Dan Ige can not prove that he can also do change then I think it is better to just retire from fighting, Stake odds for this fights are 4.40 for Ige while 1.26 for Evloev so my pick will be Movsar Evloev,

Karine Silva VS Poliana Botelho

Debuting on UFC we have the Killer Karine Silva while Silva has a nasty name his physique looks like she can kill, while Poliana Botelho looks like a sweet kitten, I really want for out Sweet fighting Kitten to win this but I think she doesn't have a chance at all, compared to the win on Botelho, it is not all great while Silva is new to the UFC, she got good knockout power but I think Botelho will not gas out all of a sudden because I think she can last all 3 rounds, but I am very curious if she can withstand Silva's power, stake odds for this fight are 2.12 for Botelho while 1.83 for Silva, but I am going with Poliana Botelho,

Erin Blanchfield VS JJ Aldrich

Now Blanchfield surely is younger so much younger than I could ask how does she do it, but his prominent fight was against Miranda Maverick, that was a replacement of  Maycee Barber and a replacement of Montana De La Rosa so Maverick was not really her 1st fight, and she is fighting a fighter that she doesn't have much preparation but she has done fine, while JJ Aldrich has good striking I think Blanchfield can only withstand those and give a powerful strike to Aldrich, I can say that Blanchfield has good strength and can get the fight to submission when she wants to, Stake odds for this fight are 1.21 for Blanchfield while 5.20 for Aldrich, so I will go with Erin Blanchfield.

[Welsh]

You are most likely right, however, I can't help but think of all of the times HWs failed to use their height advantage, so it's hard for me to take that as any factor. Volcov himself fell prey to this, Travis Browne was a bit better but not much, but the worst of them (regarding taking advantage of height difference) was Stefan Struve. Holly shit how bad he was at the whole distance thing. It seems to be the height advantage that comes into play in lower-weight classes.

Not just heavyweights, I find most fighters don't know how to utilize their height advantage. Although, I do believe Volkov is one of the exceptions here. I've seen him put in some good technical performances. Stefan Struve was gifted with that height, but time after time he didn't know how to use it. I'm not sure what his coaches were teaching him, but being tall while it does open you up for certain attacks is one of the best bases for MMA. You're longer for submission attacks, you're longer, and therefore harder to takedown especially on double/single leg attacks.

I always find myself frustrating with the significantly taller guy not utilizing it properly.

[tokeweed]

Here are my lottery tickets.  I haven't made the bets yet tbh because my wallet is empty and my account at Stake is also empty.  Lmao.  But yeah...  Waiting for my sig payment to come in.

Volkov - Evolev at 2.07 - 10 USD
Add:  Molina - Jackson - Solecki at 6.31 - 5 USD
Add:  Blanchfield - Menefield - Fakhretdinov at 15.08 - 2 USD
Add:  Trizano - Munoz - Silva at 83.40 - 2 USD
Add:  Saint-Denis - Herrig - Adashev at 727.20 - 1 USD

It would be hilarious if this thing hits and I have no money riding on it.  

Here are the vids of the weigh ins and the face offs.  Enjoy...

UFC Fight Night 207:  Weigh in
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYv9Fj7eFvw

UFC Fight Night 207:  Face off
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U56G8T5rEzU

[Welsh]

Volkov - Evolev at 2.07 - 10 USD
Add:  Molina - Jackson - Solecki at 6.31 - 5 USD
Add:  Blanchfield - Menefield - Fakhretdinov at 15.08 - 2 USD
Add:  Trizano - Munoz - Silva at 83.40 - 2 USD
Add:  Saint-Denis - Herrig - Adashev at 727.20 - 1 USD

Tempted just to put some money on it now so that you don't feel completely horrible when it comes in or would that make it worse? .

Looks mostly similar to the bet I'm putting on anyway except a few differences. I'll probably be putting down Ige just for value of money. Shame the football has stopped, as putting one or two bet builders down alongside the UFC used to massively put your return up.

[YuginKadoya]

Not just heavyweights, I find most fighters don't know how to utilize their height advantage. Although, I do believe Volkov is one of the exceptions here. I've seen him put in some good technical performances. Stefan Struve was gifted with that height, but time after time he didn't know how to use it. I'm not sure what his coaches were teaching him, but being tall while it does open you up for certain attacks is one of the best bases for MMA. You're longer for submission attacks, you're longer, and therefore harder to takedown especially on double/single leg attacks.

I always find myself frustrating with the significantly taller guy not utilizing it properly.

Yep! I find Volkov to be more technical than Rozenstruik that is why I am looking forward to his win, and I think because of his fight against Gane I think he has surely seen the good quality for being technical in all and not just by strength alone, which is the opposite of Jairzinho Rozenstruik, I think this find can be a bit a double edge it can be a win for Rozentruik if he can 1 punch KO Volkov, which is impossible because of Volkov's Durability, or Volkov with a KO/TKO or a decision win with the technicality of Alexander Volkov, Volkov can have a different path for him to win this, while Rozenstruik just have one and that is to Knock out Volkov,

Here are my lottery tickets.  I haven't made the bets yet tbh because my wallet is empty and my account at Stake is also empty.  Lmao.  But yeah...  Waiting for my sig payment to come in.

Volkov - Evolev at 2.07 - 10 USD
Add:  Molina - Jackson - Solecki at 6.31 - 5 USD
Add:  Blanchfield - Menefield - Fakhretdinov at 15.08 - 2 USD
Add:  Trizano - Munoz - Silva at 83.40 - 2 USD
Add:  Saint-Denis - Herrig - Adashev at 727.20 - 1 USD

It would be hilarious if this thing hits and I have no money riding on it.  

Here are the vids of the weigh ins and the face offs.  Enjoy...

UFC Fight Night 207:  Weigh in
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYv9Fj7eFvw

UFC Fight Night 207:  Face off
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U56G8T5rEzU

Well, if you haven't had anything with you why bother to bet, but yeah that is your life, but you got good picks and in my opinion, most of your picks are the same except for the Silva because I will Poliana Botelho, but again I am just trying my luck with Botelho I guess there is not much analysis, and her opponent has a physique that is very bulk, so I guess she would consume her cardio and that will be the time when Botelho can comeback and may brought a beating to Silva, but take it as a grain of salt,

[notblox1]

This UFC event will be in Las Vegas, Nevada, and it is starting earlier than usual, prelims will start in less than one hour.
I think there are some great betting opportunities and my main pick will be on Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win in main event against Alexander Volkov.
He is underdog in this fight but I believe bookmakers gave as a gift with this odds and in my opinion this will be much more even fight.
I don't expect to see this fight going long distance, so it might be good to bet on that as more safer bet.
Sportsbet odds are nice when boosted:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/mma/ufc/ufc-fight-night-volkov-vs-rozenstruik/volkov-alexander-vs-rozenstruik-jairzinho-6283ad49a43a33bc49adbce3

[Welsh]

This UFC event will be in Las Vegas, Nevada, and it is starting earlier than usual, prelims will start in less than one hour.

Nearly got caught out because of this. Just caught the Tom Gravely finish. So, I think I missed four fights? Bloody earlier starts I absolutely love them because I can go to sleep a somewhat normal time, but they don't half catch me out most of the time.

Bet slip is surprisingly still running at the moment, could be a good night boys.

[TheNineClub]

You are most likely right, however, I can't help but think of all of the times HWs failed to use their height advantage, so it's hard for me to take that as any factor. Volcov himself fell prey to this, Travis Browne was a bit better but not much, but the worst of them (regarding taking advantage of height difference) was Stefan Struve. Holly shit how bad he was at the whole distance thing. It seems to be the height advantage that comes into play in lower-weight classes.

Not just heavyweights, I find most fighters don't know how to utilize their height advantage. Although, I do believe Volkov is one of the exceptions here. I've seen him put in some good technical performances. Stefan Struve was gifted with that height, but time after time he didn't know how to use it. I'm not sure what his coaches were teaching him, but being tall while it does open you up for certain attacks is one of the best bases for MMA. You're longer for submission attacks, you're longer, and therefore harder to takedown especially on double/single leg attacks.

I always find myself frustrating with the significantly taller guy not utilizing it properly.

Yeah, to some extent you are right, we have those in any division. I remember I used to play EA UFC 3(i think) and loved to play with Struve and do the conolete opposite of what he does irl XD And I can attest that having longer limbs and being tall migjt not be great for wrestling, but it's amazing for submissions like triangle, D'Arce chockes and so on.

[YuginKadoya]

Here is the result for today's event


Alexander Volkov VS Jairzinho Rozenstruik KO/TKO - WIN

Just like I thought Alexander Volkov's technicality have sure won the fight and right now the Heavyweight division is shifting to a more technical way to win, rather than Heavyweights pouring out powerful strikes without hesitation that without any plan at all and ending the fight in the 1st round by a 1 punch, the Heavyweight is more exciting now in my opinion, and Alexander Volkov has shown it to this fight, he surely have learned much from his fight from Cyril Gane, that if he would fight without any technicality in it, it will never bloom, Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a sitting duck without any plans at all, the fight was over in an instant, from a combination of kicks, and there is a point where Volkov stop for a while to see if Rozenstruik is wobbly and then when he confirms that Rozenstruik is Wobbly he let loose a barrage of punches and Herb Dean stop the fight,

Dan Ige VS Movsar Evloev Decision - WIN

That was a great performance from Evloev and I am sure wasn't wrong to change my pick from Ige to Movsar Evloev, the guys are dominating from those kicks and strikes to giving Ige a fast takedown surely launching his body for a takedown, and slamming Ige like a rug doll he surely has great strength, there is a lot of time that he is controlling Ige from the ground, slamming him back, Evloev Wrestling and scrambling surely makes him dominated Ige,


Karine Silva VS Poliana Botelho Submission - LOST

Right now I am not shocked that Silva has won on his Debut, that power from Karine Silva's Punch has Rocked Poliana Botelho down and she goes down to submission, this is one powerhouse girl we got here and maybe just maybe she can go up the ranks but not yet, there are plenty of obstacles that she needs to face first but really looking forward on her getting up, but Botelho surely has no answer to that, but at least she is still gorgeous from the weight in and fight,


Erin Blanchfield VS JJ Aldrich Submission - WIN

What power from Blanchfield pinning Aldrich on the cage, that must have hurt so much for Aldrich to tap like that, I say Blanchfield is one nasty fighting kitten, but she really badly needed a win, just to go up the ranks and if she can make it that far I really think this will be her time to shine,

[Welsh]

Well, I had a opportunity to cash out for £500, but didn't take it as I thought the Karolina Kowalkiewicz would go to a decision. I didn't bet on either of them, just for the fight to go the distance. Definitely wasn't expecting Karolina Kowalkiewicz to come out like she did. Anyway, I actually had a pretty good night in terms of betting if it wasn't for that fight I could've been looking at £5k.

That last minute switch to Volkov again nearly paid off. Again, wasn't expecting him to finish Rozenstruik like that. Some might argue that Herb called the fight too early, but honestly if you look at it from his point of view I thought it was a decent stoppage. Rozenstruik didn't look good, stumbled several times during that combo, and was turtling up.

 

[tokeweed]

Volkov - Evolev at 2.07 - 10 USD
Add:  Molina - Jackson - Solecki at 6.31 - 5 USD
Add:  Blanchfield - Menefield - Fakhretdinov at 15.08 - 2 USD
Add:  Trizano - Munoz - Silva at 83.40 - 2 USD
Add:  Saint-Denis - Herrig - Adashev at 727.20 - 1 USD

Tempted just to put some money on it now so that you don't feel completely horrible when it comes in or would that make it worse? .

Looks mostly similar to the bet I'm putting on anyway except a few differences. I'll probably be putting down Ige just for value of money. Shame the football has stopped, as putting one or two bet builders down alongside the UFC used to massively put your return up.

See?  Lmao.  I couldn't bet and the top three tickets won.  -_-  I think I should always have at least 20 bucks ready for my weekly lottery ticket.  I should avoid doing dumb shit with the sig monies like going for 10x lev losing trades at Binance. 

Anyway overall it was a good event.  Some finishes, some close ones and some prospect showing that they have what it takes to be in the UFC.  Can't wait for the next one...  Here are the results.

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/86746-ufc-fight-night

[Balmain]

We watched the Volkov Rozensturik card after the ufc break in 2 weeks, there were good matches. From now on there will be ufc matches every week for 11 weeks. Menifield won the first match by technical knockout in the first round and took two Takedowns very easily. He said this mma this is not kickboxing after winning the match

Evloev in the first round of the Ige match, Evloev jumped very clearly and had a knee, if it had been someone else, he would probably have been knocked out. Ige proved his resilience here. Elvoev grinded his opponent by messing up his fight for three rounds.

Coming to the main match, this match finished early. Volkov caught his opponent with a good right straight, but the referee was stuck in the middle, he could have continued a little more to not finish, I think he finished a little early in my opinion. But I did not expect this finish from Volkov. Frankly, it's too early.

[TopTort777]

I see some people in the internet complain about early stoppage in the fight between Volkov and Rozensturik. As if Rozensturik could have recovered, he was protecting himself and could continue. As well as the Herb Dean stopped this fight, fighters were confused that this is over. I think Herb Dead did exactly what he should do, saved Rozensturik from receiving unnecessary punches.

[Welsh]

I do feel that Herb Dean gets extra criticism for whatever reason. I don't usually have a massive problem with his stoppages, and quite frankly it's part of the game. We don't want them, but things happen so quickly at times it's hard to know. Especially, when the fighter might be telling you different. No fighter wants to get a TKO against them, so they'll always protest about it.

I thought this call in particular was a good call. If you look at the replays you can definitely see why he jumped in. We also finally saw a points deduction in the Jackson fight, although honestly he should have probably been deducted two. He must have put his toes back in 5-6 times after being warned the first three times. I'm glad the ref waited until the end of the round to deduct the points though, and didn't reset the position.