Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod]

[Haunebu]

One session is completely washed out so we'll have approx 45-50 overs of the action if there are no rain interruptions.

Remaining 174 runs might not look daunting but again, it won't be an easy task due to overcast conditions. Aussie batters also need to keep up with the run rate and it's tough when you don't have many wickets in the bank. Right now all 4 results are possible (including tie).

If it starts raining heavily once again, I am afraid that this exciting match will end in a boring draw. I understand why many people think that England still has a shot thanks to overcast conditions which does make sense.

However, the Australian batsmen are used to these issues and they bat deep which is why they still have the upper hand if you ask me.

[1715332585]

1715332585

[1715332585]

1715332585

[JSRAW]

One session is completely washed out so we'll have approx 45-50 overs of the action if there are no rain interruptions.

Remaining 174 runs might not look daunting but again, it won't be an easy task due to overcast conditions. Aussie batters also need to keep up with the run rate and it's tough when you don't have many wickets in the bank. Right now all 4 results are possible (including tie).

If it starts raining heavily once again, I am afraid that this exciting match will end in a boring draw. I understand why many people think that England still has a shot thanks to overcast conditions which does make sense.

However, the Australian batsmen are used to these issues and they bat deep which is why they still have the upper hand if you ask me.

Aussies know this condition but to them, it's an advantage when playing against a subcontinent team. When up against England they lose this advantage because the latter group grew up in these conditions (home advantage).

The game is in balance IMO. Aussie needs just one partnership and Poms will be waiting for one magic spell from their seamers.

[noormcs5]

One thing that I liked about Australia is that they kicked out Mitchell Starc from the squad and instead included Scott Boland. Josh Hazlewood is in prime form and it would have been huge injustice if he was excluded from the playing XI. They did the right thing by dropping the non-performing player (unlike teams like India who would sustain with non-performers for many years). At this point the match is 50-50. Zak Crawley was looking good out there, but then Scott Boland struck at the right moment. Now Joe Root and Harry Brook are at the crease.

This Birmingham Ashes test is becoming tense as the 5th day progresses and I must say that this is now getting on the nerves of those who have placed a bet on this match. Right now either of the team can win and what's more interesting is that the rain can ruin the result of the match and those who bet on the draw can win money too.

Take the match as deep as possible and with wickets in hand, Australia can have a chance at the end of the day's play. If they try to play fast here, they could lose wickets and the dream of winning will be disappearing.

[kro55]

174 is a small target for the remaining batsmen though England could still win if they triggered a collapse.
Exciting first match which implies that this edition of Ashes will most probably be far better than the previous edition where Australia decimated England. Rain interference should stay minimal throughout this series hopefully.

As easy as it sounds, the fifth day's play will not be that easy. The wicket on the fifth day is usually very turning and fast which makes it a challenging task for the batsmen to deal with the fast bowlers. England can win this match if they can pick up two wickets early on the fifth day, Australia will be under a lot of pressure. And when a team can be pressured, that team will surely play the wrong game. Since the top three batsmen are already out, if two more are out, there will be two to three recognized batsmen and there will be a lot of pressure on them to win this match.

The first session of the fifth day was not played due to rain, collecting 174 runs in the second and third sessions, which could only be predicted when play resumed after the lunch break. It won't be easy for Australia to pull off a win as the pitch was largely out of Australia's control due to the rain. Now the pacer bowlers will get an extra advantage especially as there will be a lot of turning, extra bouncing as soon as the ball hits the wicket, so Australia may face various difficulties while batting.

As the fifth day's play is not due to rain, Australia's target is 174 runs, so expect Australia to bat very soon and hopefully they will be able to play well. If England's bowlers can pick up a couple of early wickets then Australia will be under some pressure. So England should bowl well and field well. If England can use their bowlers well then the game could go in their favor but the equation says that Australia have more chances to win.

England's bowlers managed to take 5 wickets of Australia. Now Australia has collected 158 runs with the loss of 5 wickets. But Usman Khawaja is still at the crease with 48 runs. Australia needs 123 runs to win. With two experienced batsmen like Usman Khawaja and Cameron Green now at the crease, scoring 123 runs is not a tough task for Australia. England's bowlers need to pick up Khawja's wicket very quickly. If Khawaja is at the crease then England are more likely to lose. There is no chance of the match being a draw unless it is delayed due to rain.

[noormcs5]

England's bowlers managed to take 5 wickets of Australia. Now Australia has collected 158 runs with the loss of 5 wickets. But Usman Khawaja is still at the crease with 48 runs. Australia needs 123 runs to win. With two experienced batsmen like Usman Khawaja and Cameron Green now at the crease, scoring 123 runs is not a tough task for Australia. England's bowlers need to pick up Khawja's wicket very quickly. If Khawaja is at the crease then England are more likely to lose. There is no chance of the match being a draw unless it is delayed due to rain.

Finally, the last session left in this test match and we cannot say with conviction who will win. Usman Khawaja innings are still very vital and the current partnership should continue from an Australian point of view. They do not want to expose the tail too early.

98 runs to win. 38 overs left and 5 wickets in hand. This is the equation for Australia. Keep in mind that the New ball will be due in 21 overs, Australia would want to win this before England may take the new ball.

This test match could not be more interesting than this, Isn't 

[Haunebu]

When up against England they lose this advantage because the latter group grew up in these conditions (home advantage).

The game is in balance IMO. Aussie needs just one partnership and Poms will be waiting for one magic spell from their seamers.

Agreed. What a match. Australia just need 72 more runs while England just need 4 more wickets. This is going right down to the wire. Broad and Robinson need to bowl more overs since they are bowling really well.

On the other hand, Australia still has Khawaja, Carey and Cummins who need to keep scoring. I'm at the edge of my seat.

[Minor Miner]

When up against England they lose this advantage because the latter group grew up in these conditions (home advantage).
The game is in balance IMO. Aussie needs just one partnership and Poms will be waiting for one magic spell from their seamers.

Agreed. What a match. Australia just need 72 more runs while England just need 4 more wickets. This is going right down to the wire. Broad and Robinson need to bowl more overs since they are bowling really well.
On the other hand, Australia still has Khawaja, Carey and Cummins who need to keep scoring. I'm at the edge of my seat.

Australia just lost the wicket of Usman Khawaja. Australia lost the seventh wicket for 209 runs. Now it seems that England will win this match. Australia needs 72 more runs to win. Alex Carey is still at the crease though. Alex Carey can't be trusted too much though. Because England's bowlers are bowling very well. And scoring 72 runs on such a pitch will not be easy. Broad took 3 wickets and Robinson 2 wickets.

[LDL]

When up against England they lose this advantage because the latter group grew up in these conditions (home advantage).

The game is in balance IMO. Aussie needs just one partnership and Poms will be waiting for one magic spell from their seamers.

Agreed. What a match. Australia just need 72 more runs while England just need 4 more wickets. This is going right down to the wire. Broad and Robinson need to bowl more overs since they are bowling really well.

On the other hand, Australia still has Khawaja, Carey and Cummins who need to keep scoring. I'm at the edge of my seat.

Oh no!!
Osman Khawaja 65(197) out bowled by Ben Stokes.
Another important wicket for Aussie
However, it became very difficult for Australia to defend the remaining overs in today's match.
Can Alex Carry, Pat Cummins pass rest overs?

Aussie need 70 runs and England need only 3 wickets.

[Litzki1990]

Australia and England are very close to victory. However, the chances of Australia winning are slightly higher than England. That's why I said Australia and England are close to winning because England need just two more wickets to win and Australia need just 30 more runs to win. It is the traditional Ashes series with such competitive matches against each other. It wouldn't be wrong to say the tradition between England and Australia. And in the fight to protect this tradition, no one talks about anything. The match could go either way at this point. 

Pat Cummins is hoping for a win for Australia. He is still unbeaten with 28 runs. Australian fans must be expecting Pat Cummins to finish the game.

[laurenB7742]

When up against England they lose this advantage because the latter group grew up in these conditions (home advantage).
The game is in balance IMO. Aussie needs just one partnership and Poms will be waiting for one magic spell from their seamers.

Agreed. What a match. Australia just need 72 more runs while England just need 4 more wickets. This is going right down to the wire. Broad and Robinson need to bowl more overs since they are bowling really well.
On the other hand, Australia still has Khawaja, Carey and Cummins who need to keep scoring. I'm at the edge of my seat.

Oh no!!
Osman Khawaja 65(197) out bowled by Ben Stokes.
Another important wicket for Aussie
However, it became very difficult for Australia to defend the remaining overs in today's match.
Can Alex Carry, Pat Cummins pass rest overs?
Aussie need 70 runs and England need only 3 wickets.

Australia needs only 28 runs to win. Australia lost 8 wickets. Pat Cummins is batting well. He remains unbeaten with 30 runs. And Australia probably won't lose if he stays at the crease. I would not say that scoring 28 runs is an easy task. Both teams still have chances to win the match. The match turned out to be very competitive and exciting. It is not yet possible to predict which team will win. I didn't think the match would turn out to be so competitive.

[Vaskiy]

Once again it is Khawaja that have took the match towards the win. If his wicket had fallen earlier England might've got big advantage. Both the teams have come closer to win situation and the small mistakes from any of the team gonna decide the winner. Australia need another 27 runs from 72 balls to win the match. England need 2 wickets to win the match. Cummins and Lyon on the crease seems strong for Australia. It looks like the early declare by England in the first innings gonna pay.

[Mahdirakib]

Once again it is Khawaja that have took the match towards the win.

Eventually, it is Pat Cummins who played the important role in the victory of Australia. His batting performance was pretty good in both innings, and he bowled really well in the second innings. Usman Khawaja got man of match award, but I was expecting Cummins to get the award.

It looks like the early declare by England in the first innings gonna pay.

Most of the people were surprised by the decision which England did in the first innings. Now England team has nothing to do except regretting their decision of declaring the innings.

[kro55]

England's bowlers managed to take 5 wickets of Australia. Now Australia has collected 158 runs with the loss of 5 wickets. But Usman Khawaja is still at the crease with 48 runs. Australia needs 123 runs to win. With two experienced batsmen like Usman Khawaja and Cameron Green now at the crease, scoring 123 runs is not a tough task for Australia. England's bowlers need to pick up Khawja's wicket very quickly. If Khawaja is at the crease then England are more likely to lose. There is no chance of the match being a draw unless it is delayed due to rain.

Finally, the last session left in this test match and we cannot say with conviction who will win. Usman Khawaja innings are still very vital and the current partnership should continue from an Australian point of view. They do not want to expose the tail too early.
98 runs to win. 38 overs left and 5 wickets in hand. This is the equation for Australia. Keep in mind that the New ball will be due in 21 overs, Australia would want to win this before England may take the new ball.
This test match could not be more interesting than this, Isn't 

In the end, Australia won the match by 2 wickets. We got a chance to enjoy a very exciting match.
Usman Khawaja scored 206 runs in two innings. He batted very responsibly. But I would say Pat Cummins' performance was key to the win in this match. He did not collect any wickets in the first innings but did not collect 38 runs. Cummins picked up 4 wickets in the second innings and played an excellent innings of 44 not out. Pat Cummins has batted responsibly when the team needed it.

[n0ne]

Once again it is Khawaja that have took the match towards the win.

Eventually, it is Pat Cummins who played the important role in the victory of Australia. His batting performance was pretty good in both innings, and he bowled really well in the second innings. Usman Khawaja got man of match award, but I was expecting Cummins to get the award.

No doubt, at the end it is Part Cummins who had made it a winning day for Australia. A responsible performance from the captain, in both the innings Khawaja had a big contribution. Particularly in the second innings, while wickets were falling on one side he stood strong avoiding wicket fall and scored the highest score for Australia same as that took place in the first innings. Also the best thing for the win is the tail end, because in the first innings the contribution is not big and now they're the heroes.

It looks like the early declare by England in the first innings gonna pay.

Most of the people were surprised by the decision which England did in the first innings. Now England team has nothing to do except regretting their decision of declaring the innings.

That looked different, but it was like favouring the England team as they took wickets the last few overs and increased the pressure on Australia. However none could've predicted those two wickets will serve to regret the decision.

[LDL]

Osman Khawaja batted 5 days as a Row

It is surprising how a batsman bats for five days in a five-day Test. Australian batsman Osman Khawaja recorded 5 days of batting in today's Test. However, in the past, many batted five days in a row.

Osman Khawaja's 5 days batting records

Day1 Osman Khawaja 4* (1st innings)
Day2 Osman Khawaja 126* (1st innings)
Day 3 Osman Khawaja 141 (1st innings)
Day 4 Osman Khawaja 34* (2nd innings)
Day 5 Osman Khawaja 65 (2nd innings)

[Sithara007]

I still believe that if England had a quality spinner (someone who can take wickets, not like the useless Jack Leach) they would have won the match yesterday. Joe Root was troubling the Australian batsmen and if another spinner operated from the other end then it could have got really difficult for Australia. Anyway, we need to admit that Australia knows how to pull wins from adverse circumstances. Yesterday they needed 54 runs to win when Nathan Lyon came to bat. But still the partnership between Lyon and Cummins took them home.

[LDL]

Yesterday they needed 54 runs to win when Nathan Lyon came to bat. But still the partnership between Lyon and Cummins took them home.

The turning point in England's defeat yesterday was Stuart Board's second ball of the 83rd over when Nathan Lyon hitted a catch and Ben Stokes missed the catch by palming it with one hand. Had that catch not been missed, a remarkable partnership between Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon could have been enough to lift Australia's victory in tomorrow's match.

[onecall123]

Yesterday they needed 54 runs to win when Nathan Lyon came to bat. But still the partnership between Lyon and Cummins took them home.

The turning point in England's defeat yesterday was Stuart Board's second ball of the 83rd over when Nathan Lyon hitted a catch and Ben Stokes missed the catch by palming it with one hand. Had that catch not been missed, a remarkable partnership between Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon could have been enough to lift Australia's victory in tomorrow's match.

The outcome could have been different if Stokes had managed to pull off that crucial catch. It was such a close result and an intense run chase. England's bazball vs Australia's traditional gameplay were contrasting but adding extra excitement. Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon both did an incredible job, achieving what seemed like an impossible task at sometimes. Kudos to Aussie for their impressive performance.

[JSRAW]

The outcome could have been different if Stokes had managed to pull off that crucial catch. It was such a close result and an intense run chase. England's bazball vs Australia's traditional gameplay were contrasting but adding extra excitement. Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon both did an incredible job, achieving what seemed like an impossible task at sometimes. Kudos to Aussie for their impressive performance.

It was a very tough chance tho but yeah in the context of the game, it would've been one of the great catches if he had managed to hold onto it and match winning catch.

I also felt that the pitch was easy to bat on and didn't deteriorate at all, except for a couple of balls and that too for Root. The new ball hardly misbehaved as well, that's why the Aussie tail wagged in such a manner.

[Sithara007]

Yesterday they needed 54 runs to win when Nathan Lyon came to bat. But still the partnership between Lyon and Cummins took them home.

The turning point in England's defeat yesterday was Stuart Board's second ball of the 83rd over when Nathan Lyon hitted a catch and Ben Stokes missed the catch by palming it with one hand. Had that catch not been missed, a remarkable partnership between Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon could have been enough to lift Australia's victory in tomorrow's match.

I don't agree with this. It was an extremely difficult chance and Stokes did his best. But luck was not with England yesterday. Also, why only target Stokes? If I am not wrong, the keeper (Bairstow) also dropped a chance of the bowling of Joe Root. Anyway, Stokes need to be blamed for something else. He declared the innings with a lead of just 393 runs. They had two wickets in hand and Ollie Robinson and Joe Root were batting quite confidently at that point. England could have easily added another 20-30 runs (or even more).