Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod]

[laurenB7742]

~snip~

WTC is not holy grail but its best possible solution to address test cricket's existing problems.

Before WTC, Bilateral test series had no relevance and no one was interested in tests, unless it's their team (Ashes, BT Trophy, Freedom Trophy and Ind vs Eng were outliers -Eyeballs +Revenue-) but due to WTC point system every series has some weightage and it play big part because now fair amount of fans keep an eye on the point table/random series because other teams can also dent their fav team's standing.

Even ICC know that it has many flows but its a more like WIP kind of situation for them and could take time to mature, given they keep updating the format or learn something from each WTC cycle. If not then i believe Relegation & Promotion Proposal is the solution.

But still, it doesn't seem like the popularity of test cricket has changed a lot. yes, a few more people are concerned about test cricket right now and they are looking at the points table from time to time. but it doesn't mean test cricket is progressing as a whole.  there is no denying that test cricket is just too old and it's not for this generation. and honestly even I don't have any idea how to make it interesting again.

[1715303837]

1715303837

[jostorres]

still, it doesn't seem like the popularity of test cricket has changed a lot. yes, a few more people are concerned about test cricket right now and they are looking at the points table from time to time. but it doesn't mean test cricket is progressing as a whole.  there is no denying that test cricket is just too old and it's not for this generation. and honestly even I don't have any idea how to make it interesting again.

No one got any magic to bring back golden days of test cricket now they need to do something for results like good and supportive pitches and nothing else is possible because as you already mention new generation is having no interest in this game because of its nature and surely it's marketing is stand on as we have few years back even now T10 and T20 Leagues are doing very good but still few countries love this and enjoying, so now it's time for ICC to have some rules about this and stop this for new countries with current teams better chances for having some entertaining results and work on other formats which can generate good finances for them hopefully this will survive for some more decades with his this bore and dead system.

[Minecache]

Pakistan really trying hard to keep this test match interesting, some fine and very unexpected collapse i would say on batter friendly track. Aussie pacer are picking up some tricks about how to bowl on flat track - Reverse swing-. Unfortunately this was the Pakistan's main weapon in good ol' days when likes of Wasim Akram-Waqar Younis used to run riots in opposition batting line up.

We have 2 full days left, no major delay so 180 overs ( let's say 170-ish overs due to small break etc). Australia lead is 134 runs so they might want to bat at least 60 more overs and if by any chance they manage to add 180-200 runs, given they keep run rate of 3 rpo then we are looking at 314-334 range. If they are on offensive mode then we could also see 350ish range.

If this scenario pans out then final day is going to be very exciting  or what if Australia also face some sort of collapse tomorrow? After all Pakistan bowlers are not dummy.

I think a score of 350 is going to be really good for Australia to defend. But whatever happens, I really want both teams to go for the win in this test match because if this is also a draw I am going to really lose my mind. 

I really hate it when the test cricket does not produce a result. in my mind, I think,  ok all this happening and all this money just to be wasted?

I think if ICC can find a way to eliminate draw from test results test cricket might be e interesting again. but it certainly has to be done in a fair way.

[BALIK]

If this scenario pans out then final day is going to be very exciting  or what if Australia also face some sort of collapse tomorrow? After all Pakistan bowlers are not dummy.

People are mostly criticising pitch but no one ignoring that these are two top teams of the current era.

If we're going by the norms then top teams definition is dominating at home and more or less competitive when playing away from home

So atm Pakistan is hardly a top team in the Red ball cricket. They have a long way to go if they want to be a top tier team, ingredients and signs are there to reach the top but they have to play at least 3-4 years of good cricket against top ranking teams.

In future if they manage to conquer at least 2 SENA countries and start dominating at home then i would say yeah they are strong team, till then this sort of statement doesn't hold any weightage IMO. 

I think that gets that Australia will need to set for Pakistan is going to be a little bit tricky because if Australia wants to win I think this time they will have to set up bait for Pakistan and give a relatively achievable score. and I think that could be 300.

That might make the Pakistan players think that they can go for the win and in that process lose quick wickets, but it is going to be a risky play. and obviously, if they want to be in a safe position they can always go for 350 or more.

[Sithara007]

Two days of play remain. Australia will be cautious, because Pakistan made big totals during second innings in the previous matches. My guess is that they will not declare, unless the lead gets to 400 plus. And that would mean another boring draw in the horizon and the series will end at 0-0 even after three matches. And right now Usman Khawaja is at the crease along with David Warner. While Warner is having a good strike rate, Khawaja is just the opposite. I am not expecting Pakistan to start their second innings before today's tea-break.

[blatchcorn]

That's not dominating record looks like imo.

Pak vs SA,   series draw 1-1 (2013-2014)
Pak vs SL,   series draw 1-1 (2013-2014)
Pak vs Aus,  Pak won 2-0 (2014-2015)
Pak vs NZ,   series draw 1-1 ( 2014-15)
Pak vs Eng,  Pak won 2-0 (2015-16)
Pak vs WI,   Pak won 2-1 (2016-17)
Pak vs SL,   SL won 2-0 (2017)
Pak vs Aus,  Pak won 1-0 ( 2018-19)
Pak vs NZ,   NZ won 2-1 ( 2018-19)

So they beat twice Australia and once England, these stats clearly indicates Pakistan stand among top teams IMO. If someone says that after all these wins Pakistan is a weak team then I would not involve in arguments since that will be of no use.
Yes I do agree that India is unbeaten at home and very strong when they play on there own pitches. But there dilemma is they can't produce same results when touring countries like Aus, NZ IMO.

[UmerIdrees]

Are you sure Pakistan is weak team? They have one of the best boys these days. They don't play IPL that doesn't mean they are weak. Pakistan these days is as good as any best team these days. So far 11 wickets have been fallen and seems like we are having a result for this match. Trust me no one is interested in WTC, you yourself always criticise test cricket.

IF Pakistan was not a weak team, then they would have prepared good pitches and attempted to defeat Australia. Afterall, they were having the home advantage and some very good bowlers like Shaheen Shah. What have they done here? They prepared substandard pitches and tried to make sure that all of the matches ends up in draw. If they are not a weak team, then what is the need for this? If this is the way test cricket is being played, then within a few decades it will exist only in the archives of the Wisden magazine.

The pitches are not so bad as you are trying to comprehend. Looks like you have never seen a five days test match and want to see the result on the third day  

The last match in Karachi was so entertaining as the Pakistani team fought back in the last five sessions and this test match is also in an interesting phase. but not interesting for those who have an IPL mindset.

I can understand the frustrations from the Indians as they are unable to sleep seeing Australia's full squad team playing in Pakistan with no mishaps happenings.

[coinism]

The pitches are not so bad as you are trying to comprehend. Looks like you have never seen a five days test match and want to see the result on the third day  

The last match in Karachi was so entertaining as the Pakistani team fought back in the last five sessions and this test match is also in an interesting phase. but not interesting for those who have an IPL mindset.

I can understand the frustrations from the Indians as they are unable to sleep seeing Australia's full squad team playing in Pakistan with no mishaps happenings.

Exactly that's what I was thinking. The frustration has gone upto an extent that they have started calling Pakistan a weak team like West Indies. When Australia score 400 runs they say they are world top team but when Pakistan score 400 they say pitch is flat. Pakistan has right to make pitch of his own choice, then why this criticism?

[JSRAW]

~snip~.

Most chances they will try to go through for 400 but 350 is also good target for Pakistani batting line up which can collapse again on this pitch.

So far everything is going according to script. Most interesting thing would be Australian collapse, this test match could produce excellent cricket if Aussie get bowled out quickly and Pakistan chasing under 280-300 run target. It would be interesting to see Pakistani approach, so far in this series they didn't show any intent to win the match with the bat, hope this might change in the final inning of decider game.

But there dilemma is they can't produce same results when touring countries like Aus, NZ IMO.

Arey bhai, why are you using Australia example? May be use SA as an example but not Australia. India just won 2 back 2 test series in Australia.

Yeah Indian record is bad in NZ and they didn't won any series in NZ in this decade but that's what happen when you play in alien condition after 6 years gap. They've toured only 2 times there in last decade, i like to believe that if India team start touring them regularly and start playing long series then this record might improve drastically.

And no i don't think Pakistan is weak team, i've mentioned this countless time that Pakistan has every ingredient to become a top team in red ball cricket but ATM no, they are not top team. They rank 6 and we have only 10 test playing nation who play regularly (Not counting AFG/IRE).

WTC is not holy grail but its best possible solution to address test cricket's existing problems.

Before WTC, Bilateral test series had no relevance and no one was interested in tests, unless it's their team (Ashes, BT Trophy, Freedom Trophy and Ind vs Eng were outliers -Eyeballs +Revenue-) but due to WTC point system every series has some weightage and it play big part because now fair amount of fans keep an eye on the point table/random series because other teams can also dent their fav team's standing.

Even ICC know that it has many flows but its a more like WIP kind of situation for them and could take time to mature, given they keep updating the format or learn something from each WTC cycle. If not then i believe Relegation & Promotion Proposal is the solution.

But still, it doesn't seem like the popularity of test cricket has changed a lot. yes, a few more people are concerned about test cricket right now and they are looking at the points table from time to time. but it doesn't mean test cricket is progressing as a whole.  there is no denying that test cricket is just too old and it's not for this generation. and honestly even I don't have any idea how to make it interesting again.

Group system seems good solution imo. Reposting old discussion.

Two divisions are needed, because the gap between the pig 3 sides and smaller nations such as Sri Lanka are increasing. I would rather prefer three divisions of test cricket. It will be as follows:

Division 1: India, Australia, New Zealand, England and Pakistan
Division 2: South Africa, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and West Indies
Division 3: Zimbabwe, Ireland, Netherlands, Scotland and Nepal.

Ind-Pak are not going to play so they might end up playing with only SENA countries in this system.

Guess we discussed this topic couple of times here, anyway IMO it would be better if they could divide teams into 2 group according to their ranking. As of now we have 12 tests playing nations.

Group A  : Top 1-6 ranking team
Group B  : Bottom 7-12 ranking team

[coinism]

So far everything is going according to script. Most interesting thing would be Australian collapse, this test match could produce excellent cricket if Aussie get bowled out quickly and Pakistan chasing under 280-300 run target. It would be interesting to see Pakistani approach, so far in this series they didn't show any intent to win the match with the bat, hope this might change in the final inning of decider game.

Australia have already got lead of 300 runs and they still have 8 wickets left and 40 overs of play left. That match well draw or Australia win if Pakistan collapsed just like they collapsed in first innings. If Australia declare innings by stumps today with 400 runs target then Pakistan surely will go for draw.

[galambo]

The third test match has entered in a very interesting situation, as Australia have declared there innings on 227. Now Pakistan have to chase a target of 350. Highest target ever chased Pakistan was of 382 against Sri Lanka. It can be anyone game from this point. Hopefully by stumps today we have better positions of both teams.

[JohnBitCo]

~snip~.

Most chances they will try to go through for 400 but 350 is also good target for Pakistani batting line up which can collapse again on this pitch.

So far everything is going according to script. Most interesting thing would be Australian collapse, this test match could produce excellent cricket if Aussie get bowled out quickly and Pakistan chasing under 280-300 run target. It would be interesting to see Pakistani approach, so far in this series they didn't show any intent to win the match with the bat, hope this might change in the final inning of decider game.

Australians didn't collapse but didn't they did suicide by declaring the innings a bit too early?

The problem is that we have a Pakistan team in front who are unpredictable. Pakistan could go on making 200-0 but then can collapse in 100 runs or so. If India or England were the opponents, they would have never missed this opportunity given by the overconfident declaration.
Anything could happen tomorrow, didn't thought the match would turn out to be that interesting.

[onecall123]

~snip~.

Most chances they will try to go through for 400 but 350 is also good target for Pakistani batting line up which can collapse again on this pitch.

So far everything is going according to script. Most interesting thing would be Australian collapse, this test match could produce excellent cricket if Aussie get bowled out quickly and Pakistan chasing under 280-300 run target. It would be interesting to see Pakistani approach, so far in this series they didn't show any intent to win the match with the bat, hope this might change in the final inning of decider game.

Australians didn't collapse but didn't they did suicide by declaring the innings a bit too early?

The problem is that we have a Pakistan team in front who are unpredictable. Pakistan could go on making 200-0 but then can collapse in 100 runs or so. If India or England were the opponents, they would have never missed this opportunity given by the overconfident declaration.
Anything could happen tomorrow, didn't thought the match would turn out to be that interesting.

I'm looking forward to tomorrow's final round of play! Australia's captain made a bold decision by declaring early. Pakistan's opener has given a valiant start to the team, needing another 278 runs to reach its target. We hope the team continues to show the same attitude tomorrow. Pakistan should not think about a draw but should instead go for a victory. It's a match that can be won by either team. A thriller is expected on the last day of the test and series decider? However, Pakistan stands a good chance of winning.

[JSRAW]

~snip~

Australians didn't collapse but didn't they did suicide by declaring the innings a bit too early?

The problem is that we have a Pakistan team in front who are unpredictable. Pakistan could go on making 200-0 but then can collapse in 100 runs or so. If India or England were the opponents, they would have never missed this opportunity given by the overconfident declaration.
Anything could happen tomorrow, didn't thought the match would turn out to be that interesting.

That "Aussie collapse" was my wishful thinking only to spice things up.

I don't know if Aussie were over confident or banking on volatile pak batting line-up but for me this was brave declaration on good batting wicket and I grudgingly admit that arguably Australia is the only cricketing team in the world who always try to win the game. In contrast if it was India or any other team then declaration was possible only when they were in safe positions.

Pakistan has excellent chance to win this historic series, let's see.

[Minor Miner]

Australia VS Pakistan

Australia declared their second innings at 228 runs. And they gave a target of 351 runs. Is it enough to win? In the previous Test match too, Pakistan batted very well in the second innings. Pakistan's collection is now 73 runs without losing a wicket. Pakistan needed only 278 runs to win on the fifth day. They need 3.1 runs per over to win. No big goals. And I think Pakistan will win this match. Australia should have given more than 400 targets.

[galambo]

That "Aussie collapse" was my wishful thinking only to spice things up.

I don't know if Aussie were over confident or banking on volatile pak batting line-up but for me this was brave declaration on good batting wicket and I grudgingly admit that arguably Australia is the only cricketing team in the world who always try to win the game. In contrast if it was India or any other team then declaration was possible only when they were in safe positions.

Pakistan has excellent chance to win this historic series, let's see.

The match is in very interesting phase now. Pakistan has not lost any wicket so far but they can collapse at any moment. In first innings they are 169/1 and the whole team was out on 268. If Pakistan chase this up then it will be highest target chased at Lahore Cricket Stadium. Credit goes to Australians for making this bold decision.

[BALIK]

Australia VS Pakistan

Australia declared their second innings at 228 runs. And they gave a target of 351 runs. Is it enough to win? In the previous Test match too, Pakistan batted very well in the second innings. Pakistan's collection is now 73 runs without losing a wicket. Pakistan needed only 278 runs to win on the fifth day. They need 3.1 runs per over to win. No big goals. And I think Pakistan will win this match. Australia should have given more than 400 targets.

The chances of both teams winning this match are now equal. As we saw in the first innings, Pakistan started very well but the middle order did not play well. Their performance was poor. As a result, they lost all their wickets for just 26 runs. They may have started in the second innings and have not lost a wicket yet. Still, I doubt if they will be able to play well tomorrow.

[galambo]

The chances of both teams winning this match are now equal. As we saw in the first innings, Pakistan started very well but the middle order did not play well. Their performance was poor. As a result, they lost all their wickets for just 26 runs. They may have started in the second innings and have not lost a wicket yet. Still, I doubt if they will be able to play well tomorrow.

Thats why Australians have took this bold decision of declaring innings when target is 350. They know if they can get 2 to 3 quick wickets then whole Pakistani batting line up will get panic. Secondly Pakistan don't have that much depth in there batting like Aussies have. I think chances of Aus are more then Pakistan.

[laurenB7742]

England   -   West Indies

Watch the Test match between West Indies and England. I never imagined that England would be in such a bad situation. West Indies won the toss and elected to bowl. And England lost 7 wickets for 67 runs. No one expected England's batsmen to play so badly. However, England scored 85 runs in 40 overs. And my guess is they will lose all their wickets in 120 runs. West Indies batsmen have to play carefully today. Only then will they have an easy win against England.

-snip

Group system seems good solution imo. Reposting old discussion.

Two divisions are needed, because the gap between the pig 3 sides and smaller nations such as Sri Lanka are increasing. I would rather prefer three divisions of test cricket. It will be as follows:

Division 1: India, Australia, New Zealand, England and Pakistan
Division 2: South Africa, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and West Indies
Division 3: Zimbabwe, Ireland, Netherlands, Scotland and Nepal.

Ind-Pak are not going to play so they might end up playing with only SENA countries in this system.

Guess we discussed this topic couple of times here, anyway IMO it would be better if they could divide teams into 2 group according to their ranking. As of now we have 12 tests playing nations.

Group A  : Top 1-6 ranking team
Group B  : Bottom 7-12 ranking team

It could be a great option because in that way the lower teams will also have the chance of moving forward to the next stage.

But, I am also doubtful about this. because it seems like whatever is done, test cricket might not just get back the popularity that it once had.
it doesn't obviously look like a good idea but when there are no other ideas, the bad idea becomes a great idea.

[LittleBitFunny]

England   -   West Indies

Watch the Test match between West Indies and England. I never imagined that England would be in such a bad situation. West Indies won the toss and elected to bowl. And England lost 7 wickets for 67 runs. No one expected England's batsmen to play so badly. However, England scored 85 runs in 40 overs. And my guess is they will lose all their wickets in 120 runs. West Indies batsmen have to play carefully today. Only then will they have an easy win against England.

Perhaps your guess is going to be correct. England lost one more wicket. They lost 8 wickets and collected 97 runs. It was unimaginable that the performance of England's players would be so bad against an inexperienced team like the West Indies. I know England have been out of form for some time now, but I never thought I would see such a poor performance against the West Indies.