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Author Topic: Harris Vs Trump - Bitcoin betting on the 2024 US Presidential Election  (Read 8091 times)
jossiel
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August 25, 2024, 11:44:22 PM
 #1261

I just based it on the odds and that's why I've said that she's the front liner. While with the news and sentiments of the people, I think that Trump is really likely to win after that assassination attempt happened.

Thanks, I understand that despite with all of these ratings that they're getting now, it's still the electoral college that shall proclaim the winner of this poll.

The very first thing that we need to understand is that the outcome of the POTUS elections in the United States is not decided by all the 50 states. The outcome is dependent on a handful of "swing" states. So it doesn't matter how much support Kamala or Trump can garner in deep-blue or deep-red states such as New York, New Jersey, Oklahoma or Alabama. The election will be decided by the voters in states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia. The problem with nation-wide opinion polls is that they take the full picture by taking all 50 states into account.
And that's why it seem that I have understood it as if by the majority through 50 states. Anyway, the interesting part is with these swings, it's really unpredictable.

3 months to go and a few days and we'd see who's the real winner on this election for the POTUS. While the discussion keeps going on, the political thoughts really are overwhelming.

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Today at 02:09:49 AM
 #1262

It appears that Robert Kennedy's declaration on his support on the Donald Trump did not pump Trump's ratings hehehe. Polymarket appears to have this 50% for each candidate.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1724637895511

This might be on 50-50 until the last 2 weeks before November 5. The candidate who will have a pump in ratings during this last 2 weeks will certainly have the victory.

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