Showdown: Trump Vs Haley. Bitcoin betting on the 2024 US Presidential Election

[Sithara007]

What I meant was that there are sites, sportsbet.io is one of them, accepting bets on the nominees:





Maybe somewhere we can bet on who comes for second and third, but I don't know such places. Those opportunities, imo, would also be attractive.

I am quite surprised to see such strong odds for Biden and very unfavorable ones for Kamala Harris. Given the fact that the next POTUS elections are 1.5 years away, there is a good chance that Biden's health deteriorating further making him incapable of participating in the elections. At the same time, odds for Ron DeSantis look too favorable for me. His ratings have gone down like a falling knife over the past 2-3 months and even in Florida he is trailing in opinion polls. But then, I need to admit that he has plenty of time to recover.

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[348Judah]

Despite the betting we are going to give on who will win the presidential race, one single candidate will emerge a winner, irrespective of the betting or stake made on any of them, in gambling, it takes a bold step in giving a particular candidate that trust to deliver and this kind of scenario happens because we know they can present the people with what they want from them, this make some proof that this candidates has all it takes to deliver.

[Sithara007]

Latest opinion polls just confirm the trend. Trump is having the advantage, both for the Republican nomination, and for the 2024 POTUS election. The poll from Economist/YouGov puts him ahead of Biden by 1% (44% vs 43%). Now this may look like a narrow lead, but remember that Trump actually trailed popular vote by 3% in the 2016 POTUS election which he won. So a 1% lead would translate to a landslide win at the electoral college. And Ron DeSants continues to lose support. None of the polls in any of the states have him ahead (or even close to) of Donald Trump. 

[nullama]

Latest opinion polls just confirm the trend. Trump is having the advantage, both for the Republican nomination, and for the 2024 POTUS election. The poll from Economist/YouGov puts him ahead of Biden by 1% (44% vs 43%). Now this may look like a narrow lead, but remember that Trump actually trailed popular vote by 3% in the 2016 POTUS election which he won. So a 1% lead would translate to a landslide win at the electoral college. And Ron DeSants continues to lose support. None of the polls in any of the states have him ahead (or even close to) of Donald Trump. 

I think Trump is doing a great job in terms of advertising/marketing.

You hear more about him than the actual current president of the United States, and he continues to make headlines all around the world.

I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the next election.

[STT]

So a 1% lead would translate to a landslide win at the electoral college.

Whats happened here is the dynamics have swapped around.  He did win against all predictions because of that special breadth of support spanning the states which helps win in a unique way.   I do think he has damaged that diversity in state wins and votes, he has more votes because he has a greater fame now as the former President then he even managed via tv shows and the whole red cap policies etc.    So its become ironic more votes but less depth within the electoral college will not allow him to win overall I think is a problem.   
  Of course things can change, every economic report is a plus or minus towards the next opponent to Biden so we dont know exactly yet.

[tusandii]

I think Trump is doing a great job in terms of advertising/marketing.

You hear more about him than the actual current president of the United States, and he continues to make headlines all around the world.

I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the next election.

Trump has a warm name since he was president and after his fall, Trump still continues to create sensational news to continue to make his name stand out all over the world.
Of the several candidates, no one can beat Trump in terms of campaigning, even on his TV channel, or his activities are always in the spotlight and material for discussion by all US citizens.
But even though Trump has a more prominent name and better campaign than the other candidates, I'm still not sure if Trump can win this election.

[Gyfts]

Latest opinion polls just confirm the trend. Trump is having the advantage, both for the Republican nomination, and for the 2024 POTUS election. The poll from Economist/YouGov puts him ahead of Biden by 1% (44% vs 43%). Now this may look like a narrow lead, but remember that Trump actually trailed popular vote by 3% in the 2016 POTUS election which he won. So a 1% lead would translate to a landslide win at the electoral college. And Ron DeSants continues to lose support. None of the polls in any of the states have him ahead (or even close to) of Donald Trump. 

I think Trump is doing a great job in terms of advertising/marketing.

You hear more about him than the actual current president of the United States, and he continues to make headlines all around the world.

I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the next election.

That advertising is to his detriment, though. It's why he lost the 2020 election despite his opponent campaigning from his basement.

The core Biden campaign strategy was to let Trump enjoy his media fame because it would cost him with suburban white women voters. There's a voting shift in the U.S., seemingly, where the "wine moms" can't help but vote democrat which is giving them the margin of victory in contested races.

Trump will win the Republican primary and will probably do so in a landslide. Ron DeSantis would perform better in a general election and for that reason, the Biden administration would much rather have Trump to face.

Even against someone as unlikeable as Hillary Clinton, Trump won by <100k votes scattered among some swing states. He doesn't perform well in the general even though Trump himself thinks he's good at marketing.

[Sithara007]

That advertising is to his detriment, though. It's why he lost the 2020 election despite his opponent campaigning from his basement.

The core Biden campaign strategy was to let Trump enjoy his media fame because it would cost him with suburban white women voters. There's a voting shift in the U.S., seemingly, where the "wine moms" can't help but vote democrat which is giving them the margin of victory in contested races.

Trump will win the Republican primary and will probably do so in a landslide. Ron DeSantis would perform better in a general election and for that reason, the Biden administration would much rather have Trump to face.

Even against someone as unlikeable as Hillary Clinton, Trump won by <100k votes scattered among some swing states. He doesn't perform well in the general even though Trump himself thinks he's good at marketing.

A very important reason why Trump lost the 2020 POTUS election was the SCOTUS ruling on abortions. It energized the suburban educated women (including white women) and they voted for Biden in droves. And the ideological situation hasn't changed much since then. GOP has not managed to win back this section of the voters and it will never happen if Trump remains as the face of the Republican party. Ron DeSantis is a moderate face who is capable of doing this, but at this point he simply doesn't have enough support from within the GOP.

[FanEagle]

There is no third really, Kamala will not be nominated considering Biden will be basically the only nominee. Trump on the other hand seems like the only candidate after 4 years of Biden, people are fed up with basically nothing at all. Biden didn't do many wrong things, but he didn't do any right things neither, to be fair he seems like the president who did the least possible actions ever.

Some people like that, the system works without a president as well, they do not really need one aside from joining some parades and meeting with foreign presidents, no need for him to make a decision. Sad that USA will have to decide between two old people who shouldn't run a nation. They really need someone younger to be in charge if you ask me.

[wheelz1200]

What I meant was that there are sites, sportsbet.io is one of them, accepting bets on the nominees:





Maybe somewhere we can bet on who comes for second and third, but I don't know such places. Those opportunities, imo, would also be attractive.

I am quite surprised to see such strong odds for Biden and very unfavorable ones for Kamala Harris. Given the fact that the next POTUS elections are 1.5 years away, there is a good chance that Biden's health deteriorating further making him incapable of participating in the elections. At the same time, odds for Ron DeSantis look too favorable for me. His ratings have gone down like a falling knife over the past 2-3 months and even in Florida he is trailing in opinion polls. But then, I need to admit that he has plenty of time to recover.

I'm surprised at the trump odds more so than anything.  I think there are some die hands that will lay money on him but I can't see 2024 with him having any real shot at POTUS. I wish we can bet the other way and bet on who we think WONT be the next POTUS. wonder what the odds on trump would be for that.  Would be very telling what people really think.

[Hispo]

Have you guys taken a look at the recent Trump's appearance at the NRA convention this week? He still have a good percentage of the republican base, no doubt.
Mike Pence was booed in his home state and De Santis did not even dare to appear in person, probably out of fear he feels of Trump crushing him in front of the attendees. 

At this pace he may get the nomination, for God's sake. No one is fighting back.

It was also interesting he mentioned that Mike Pence is a good person, after the public booed him, I would have guessed he was going to take the chance to finish him, I assume he did not so maybe can keep Pence from testifying under oath before prosecutor Jack Smith. One of the most serious legal cases which Trump could face this year or next one. 

[STT]

Trump on the other hand seems like the only candidate after 4 years of Biden

In a progressive way moving on with a candidate like DeSantis  I think most likely but it depends on the body of support in the party either way.   The mistake we could make at this point is judging merely the most vocal elements of the party and of course its Trump plus fans but has that yielded any great advantage or likely future path to power.   I'd like to bet on DeSantis or similar candidate with high odds as a kind of outsider who get the nomination, really not sure he can win past that so after I might cash out before the main election.
  Also not every candidate wants to line themselves up for the inter term of the election, ie. the best chances of winning comes with the end of a 2nd term so say if Kamala Harris tried to run for President this is what some in politics will wait for imo, they are canny like crocodiles waiting for the best chances to snatch victory.


https://us.cnn.com/2023/04/16/politics/robert-f-kennedy-family-biden-2024/index.html

[Betwrong]

What I meant was that there are sites, sportsbet.io is one of them, accepting bets on the nominees:





Maybe somewhere we can bet on who comes for second and third, but I don't know such places. Those opportunities, imo, would also be attractive.

I am quite surprised to see such strong odds for Biden and very unfavorable ones for Kamala Harris. Given the fact that the next POTUS elections are 1.5 years away, there is a good chance that Biden's health deteriorating further making him incapable of participating in the elections. At the same time, odds for Ron DeSantis look too favorable for me. His ratings have gone down like a falling knife over the past 2-3 months and even in Florida he is trailing in opinion polls. But then, I need to admit that he has plenty of time to recover.

Good observation. Is it worth betting on Kamala Harris now, in your opinion? I mean the odds are even better for us gamblers today, around 12.00, but closer to the elections they may drop significantly. Her chances of being nominated are less than 50% imo, but not less than 10%.

[Sithara007]

Good observation. Is it worth betting on Kamala Harris now, in your opinion? I mean the odds are even better for us gamblers today, around 12.00, but closer to the elections they may drop significantly. Her chances of being nominated are less than 50% imo, but not less than 10%.

That's what I am saying. There is a very high chance (IMO) that Biden won't be healthy enough to run for election in 2024. 18 months is very long time, and lot of things can happen. And in case Biden can't run for POTUS, then who will be the alternate choice? At this point I can't think of anyone other than Kamala. And this is the reason why I am saying that Kamala's odds look crazy at this point. They should be much more favorable. But then always remember that winning the Democrat nomination is a lot different from winning the POTUS elections in 2024.

[Hispo]

Today I have seen news on one of the billionaire donors for Ron de Santis campaign to backup and stop support, allegedly because how much steam and momentum the governor has lost in his presidential run.
Also the Make America Great Again has recently released a campaign advertisement taking advantage of the rumor of Ron De Santis eating pudding using his fingers instead a spoon, in the ad MAGA argues about the past attempts of the governor of Florida to try to cut social security and Medicaid.

The ad is very creative and a little bit disgusting at the same time, the man has not even announced his run and he is getting crushed already. 

[nullama]

~snip~
That's what I am saying. There is a very high chance (IMO) that Biden won't be healthy enough to run for election in 2024. 18 months is very long time, and lot of things can happen. And in case Biden can't run for POTUS, then who will be the alternate choice? At this point I can't think of anyone other than Kamala. And this is the reason why I am saying that Kamala's odds look crazy at this point. They should be much more favorable. But then always remember that winning the Democrat nomination is a lot different from winning the POTUS elections in 2024.

Biden is eighty years old, which is old, but I don't think there's a massive risk he wouldn't be able to get to the next 18 months based on his age.

Trump is 76 so it's a bit in the same age group really.

Worth noting that neither of them drink alcohol, so they might be healthier than average.

[STT]

He'll run 2024 barring his own party making the judgement that he is unable, I dont think his health will prevent it except via perception.   Theres been presidents who have literally died in office but won the election before that, I dont see that he is that ill to really rule him out on that point.    The bigger factor is still the economy, he wont win if people feel worse off under his administration.  Old or not is not as important, its not a baseball game he has to win.

[Sithara007]

Biden is eighty years old, which is old, but I don't think there's a massive risk he wouldn't be able to get to the next 18 months based on his age.

Trump is 76 so it's a bit in the same age group really.

Worth noting that neither of them drink alcohol, so they might be healthier than average.

There may not be a "massive" risk, but there is a significant risk. We are debating in this topic whether the odds that are being provided are accurate or not. And I have made it very clear that the odds for Biden (1.30) and Kamala (9.80) looks out of touch with reality. Kamala's odds should be at least in the 3.00-4.00 range. A lot of things can go wrong for Biden in the next 18 months (just saying about the possibilities). And it's not just the health. The economy is not doing very good, and there is always a chance of another COVID wave.

[nullama]

~snip~
There may not be a "massive" risk, but there is a significant risk. We are debating in this topic whether the odds that are being provided are accurate or not. And I have made it very clear that the odds for Biden (1.30) and Kamala (9.80) looks out of touch with reality. Kamala's odds should be at least in the 3.00-4.00 range. A lot of things can go wrong for Biden in the next 18 months (just saying about the possibilities). And it's not just the health. The economy is not doing very good, and there is always a chance of another COVID wave.

Yeah, it looks like COVID is making a come back these days, probably a new wave in the horizon.

The thing is that most countries kinda decided to not care about it really as they saw the devastating effects of closing down businesses. Plus also there's lots of vaccination done already which should keep things a bit more under control than before.

[Sithara007]

Yeah, it looks like COVID is making a come back these days, probably a new wave in the horizon.

The thing is that most countries kinda decided to not care about it really as they saw the devastating effects of closing down businesses. Plus also there's lots of vaccination done already which should keep things a bit more under control than before.

Back in 2020-2021, even the scientists were not sure about the mortality rates from COVID. Now we know that COVID rarely results in death for healthy young people without comorbidities. On top of that, almost everyone has been vaccinated with at least 2-3 doses. But poor handling of COVID was one of the main reasons why Donald Trump lost the elections in 2020. Before the pandemic had its impact in the United States, he was leading in most of the opinion polls against Biden. But his controversial statements regarding the pandemic polarized the voters back then.