Showdown: Trump Vs Haley. Bitcoin betting on the 2024 US Presidential Election

[TwitchySeal]

Whether we like it or now, it is obvious Trump is going to get away with this and take the Republican nomination for himself. People was hyped for De Santis at first, getting some donators, even. But looking are the recent polling it is obvious that somehow the guy managed to spoil his own chances.

I am not an American, but I believe that Donald Trump is the protagonist of one of the biggest institutional constraints of democracy in the United States due to the fact that he is the first former American president to be criminally accused in the history of the country.

In addition to the accusations in the case of secret documents taken from the White House, which is certainly the most serious case that weighs against him, Trump was still summoned to appear in court yesterday to answer for four other crimes.
1. conspiracy against the country;
2. conspiracy to violate civil rights;
3. conspiracy to attempt to obstruct official proceedings; It is
4. Obstruction of an official procedure, in the case of non-recognition of elections in the process.

You know what's worse than all of this? It's just that if he manages to launch his candidacy and be accepted, which certainly should happen... it's very likely that he will win the elections. Or my vision as a foreigner is very distorted!?

Mind keeping your ai generated spam in sig spam threads?

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[bbc.reporter]

Why are you angrily forcing people to bet on Trump? No one in this thread knows anything better than what we read from the news and speculate what might really be happening. Also, the smart bettors would only place their bets after each of the political parties have declared their nominees. Trump presently with those odds is certainly not a very good bet considering that he is also being indicted with various cases.

I hate to say this, but I can't find another alternative to Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. As far as Democrat nomination is concerned, there is minimal resistance from Kennedy. But Trump is not facing any opposition so far within the GOP. Obviously Ron DeSantis announced his candidature with much hype and fanfare, but he sank without any trace. Others like Vivek Ramaswamy are polling 1-2% of the primary vote. One thing is sure. 2024 will be one of the shittiest ever presidential elections in the history of the United States.

If the Republican cannot find another alternative for Trump, I reckon they should wish the Democrats nominate Joe Biden as their presidential candidate hehehe. He might be easier to beat. Biden after 4 years has much political failures that any candidate from the Republicans can use to blame for the present situation in their country and economy.

In any case, the Democratic party presidential primaries is on August 2024. There is much time for Robert Kennedy to gather support for his campaign while the people witness more failures from the Biden administration. There are some people in this forum who consider Robert Kennedy a loser because of his low ratings today, however, he should not be underestimated.

[Sithara007]

If the Republican cannot find another alternative for Trump, I reckon they should wish the Democrats nominate Joe Biden as their presidential candidate hehehe. He might be easier to beat. Biden after 4 years has much political failures that any candidate from the Republicans can use to blame for the present situation in their country and economy.

In any case, the Democratic party presidential primaries is on August 2024. There is much time for Robert Kennedy to gather support for his campaign while the people witness more failures from the Biden administration. There are some people in this forum who consider Robert Kennedy a loser because of his low ratings today, however, he should not be underestimated.

Well.. I am not sure whether I can agree with you 100%.

Obviously Kennedy is more electable when compared to Biden. But then, the chances of Kennedy winning the Democrat nomination is near-zero. Other options such as Harris and Klobuchar are likely to lose against Trump by a bigger margin. Biden is always hailed as someone who is capable of attracting the moderate votes and it is claimed that his policies are more towards the center (although I disagree with that opinion). And from what I have seen in the recent opinion polls, Trump is leading the independent and moderate vote.

[bittraffic]

They can only hope Trump will be jailed since obviously the evidence will not lie. The Shaman-horned guy was seen in the video being escorted by riot police as he walks around the corridors of the Capitol. According to the footage, the police clearly makes effort to stop him.

They've been trying that Jan6 capitol siege to indict Trump over and over when it was already debunked. It's not working on Trump and its only making him rank up on polls.

[Hispo]

At this point, I don't even know why people like Pence and other Republican runners even try to win if they know how strongly Trump has influenced on the American people.

It's simply for vanity. Even though they have no chances and are aware about it, it's still an opportunity to appear on the media with some frequency, what means people will talk about them and recognize their faces with more importance on an eventual senate or government's run futurely. Most of these potential candidates appearing on the media are there for marketing reasons solely, as they know to not have any chances in a dispute for presidency, although they are also aware to appear right now can be a worthful boost for their personal businesses and professional careers...

Besides of it, perhaps they could actually pocket some money from donors. De Santis initially managed to stockpile a good amount of financial support (it is quite less now) and I assume both Pence and Halley have a attracted some Republican businesspeople with some spare money for political antics.

I won't matter anyways, as we get closer to voting day the donors will realize who the actual Republican nominee will be. At this point, It would take something extraordinary to happen for Trump to be unable to secure his place in 2024.

Though, I have said before that Judges and prosecutors won't dare to go as far as exclude him from the race, that would certainly unleash much unrest in USA and the civil society, one does not need to be a political analist to guess that.

It’s definitely to pocket money from donors. Period. These politicians hire their families to work on their campaigns and they use their friends’ businesses as vendors for anything their campaign needs. It’s like getting a hundred million dollars to hand out to friends, family, and business associates. Obviously Mike Pence knows he doesn’t have any chance at all of winning. It’s all about the money.

It is a bit confusing though, because if he is aware he is does not have a realistic chance to defeat Trump, where are the donors who believe in him come from?

Because we are obviously talking about people or organizations which contribute with money. Is it possible they really think a candidate can win, even if the candidate does not think so?

It is kind of an interesting way to monetize one's own political position without actually bothering to win...

[LUCKMCFLY]

Biden is going to lose the race as Trump is really moving up fast gaining lots of supporters from each state. The media is starting to change its reporting which the people obviously wouldn't vote the old man who can't even remember where to go after speaking in a conference.

Really. There is no way people would vote someone who would lead a war at such state of mind. Let the old man rest and just MAGA.

At 77 years old, I wouldn't call Trump young

Both candidates are pretty old to be honest, and most probably one of them will be the next president.

I wonder if any country has a maximum age for their elected leaders, they do have a minimum age though.

Well, as for the maturity of a person, I think it is the age where you have a greater understanding of all the experiences you have lived, normally the greatest wisdom is already acquired at those ages, of course it is taken into account when doing a close up to each candidate, Biden for me is a man who has and knows many things, on the other hand, Trump is a person who has a very high financial education, and that is what I like about this being, who has no training background politics, while Biden is a complete politician, consequently when we take stock between each of them, each character has their pros and cons.

I have always thought that to take the reins of a country as big and prominent as the USA, you have to know a lot about management, have the greatest control of everything, politics alone is not enough, the best thing is that a country is directed by a manager because he has experience about it.

There are people who think that a politician knows a lot about management and no, it is not like that, for me the people who have to run a country are similar to what businessmen do, I see it that way, because a country is like Es a large company, because many resources are managed, many departments, you have to know a lot about that, because there it is very easy to be wrong, on this issue Trump has a great advantage over Biden, of course each president has his advisers, the ones who make things happen. Things are on the right track, that in that country and in any country.

In part, my opinions are very much based on a type of politics where things move in different ways, but I see that now the age of power in the USA is evident, there are many interests in staying in power, and I don't know what it is. the reason, money? but we know that Donald Trump is not interested in money, he is a person who can live very well with what he has, that is, there is no need there, I don't know if what Trump wants is to access other types of information that this nation possesses and make them known, that if that's it, it doesn't seem bad to me, however, here the USA is copying many policies that some other countries have, like throwing punches to get them out of the way, is my perception.

[Captain Corporate]

The problem with your understanding of politics is the fact that Trump took over a huge dynasty that his father built and ruined it with horrible business management and now in bigger debt that he could ever pay back. Which is why people are worried that he had secrets, literally national secrets, such as nuclear weapons information, stashed in his condo. You may think that it was nothing and they are attacking Trump, but the fact is that Trump did in fact got nuclear weapon information out of white house and into his own home, that doesn't scare you? I think it would scare any American, I am not American so I do not care, but I also would understand why that's illegal. You think ANY nation in the world would let anyone take their nuclear information? Everyone would jail anyone who did that. So between him factually known criminal for stealing those, proven, literally indicted, and also ruining the great business his father left, your defense of him falls down short of being logical. You may have to rethink why Trump could be better. Meanwhile Biden has been doing this for over 40 years, I am sure he has some illness so he should be not running, but even with his illness, he would be a better president (and has been) than trump easily, a tash can would be a better president to be fair.

[Hispo]

The problem with your understanding of politics is the fact that Trump took over a huge dynasty that his father built and ruined it with horrible business management and now in bigger debt that he could ever pay back. Which is why people are worried that he had secrets, literally national secrets, such as nuclear weapons information, stashed in his condo. You may think that it was nothing and they are attacking Trump, but the fact is that Trump did in fact got nuclear weapon information out of white house and into his own home, that doesn't scare you? I think it would scare any American, I am not American so I do not care, but I also would understand why that's illegal. You think ANY nation in the world would let anyone take their nuclear information? Everyone would jail anyone who did that. So between him factually known criminal for stealing those, proven, literally indicted, and also ruining the great business his father left, your defense of him falls down short of being logical. You may have to rethink why Trump could be better. Meanwhile Biden has been doing this for over 40 years, I am sure he has some illness so he should be not running, but even with his illness, he would be a better president (and has been) than trump easily, a tash can would be a better president to be fair.

It may be wishful thinking, but I am inclined to think Trump wanted to keep those documents close to him.because he wanted to keep his own illusion of still being the president of the country, instead of using those documents to sell them for a good amount of money from Iran or Russia, in order to revive his financial situation, etc.

In his very own eyes he may see itself as a patriot, even though he clearly has the personally of a person who do not care of the well being of others (who he does not consider to be useful for his own agenda).

This is still a case in development, I would personally be kind of surprised if it can be proven he indeed intended to sell all those papers for pure economical gain.

[Sithara007]

A few hours back Emerson released opinion poll numbers for the state of Michigan. For the POTUS poll, Biden and Trump are tied, at 44% apiece. But when Cornel West is added as the Green Party candidate, Trump is leading Biden by 2 points (43% vs 41%). In the end, most of the Green party supporters will do tactical voting or just sit at home, and West will secure only a fraction of the votes. But it is clear that he is gaining a lot of traction. BTW, for the senate elections it looks as of Democrat candidate (Elissa Slotkin) is comfortably ahead of those from the GOP.   

[bbc.reporter]

If the Republican cannot find another alternative for Trump, I reckon they should wish the Democrats nominate Joe Biden as their presidential candidate hehehe. He might be easier to beat. Biden after 4 years has much political failures that any candidate from the Republicans can use to blame for the present situation in their country and economy.

In any case, the Democratic party presidential primaries is on August 2024. There is much time for Robert Kennedy to gather support for his campaign while the people witness more failures from the Biden administration. There are some people in this forum who consider Robert Kennedy a loser because of his low ratings today, however, he should not be underestimated.

Well.. I am not sure whether I can agree with you 100%.

Obviously Kennedy is more electable when compared to Biden. But then, the chances of Kennedy winning the Democrat nomination is near-zero. Other options such as Harris and Klobuchar are likely to lose against Trump by a bigger margin. Biden is always hailed as someone who is capable of attracting the moderate votes and it is claimed that his policies are more towards the center (although I disagree with that opinion). And from what I have seen in the recent opinion polls, Trump is leading the independent and moderate vote.

I very much disagree that Robert Kennedy's nomination is near zero. The Democtratic party's primaries is 1 year from today. There is enough time for RFK and his campaign team to work and get more supporters behind him. Joe Biden might also be helping him by just being sleepy Joe Biden hehehehe. The American economy is suffering because of Bidenomics. This is an example where putting your name with the word economics might not be a very good idea hehehe.

[Hispo]

A few hours back Emerson released opinion poll numbers for the state of Michigan. For the POTUS poll, Biden and Trump are tied, at 44% apiece. But when Cornel West is added as the Green Party candidate, Trump is leading Biden by 2 points (43% vs 41%). In the end, most of the Green party supporters will do tactical voting or just sit at home, and West will secure only a fraction of the votes. But it is clear that he is gaining a lot of traction. BTW, for the senate elections it looks as of Democrat candidate (Elissa Slotkin) is comfortably ahead of those from the GOP.   

Got any idea if the information used for that poll was gathered before or after the third indictment of Donald Trump?

I have felt curious of whether actually people is willing to go further with the support for Trump beyond a second arrest, into a third one and a possible 4th one.

If flip states actually react positively for Trump after consecutive indictments, then I would expect to see the Left wing media to push forward with a more aggressive narrative against him.

[Sithara007]

I very much disagree that Robert Kennedy's nomination is near zero. The Democtratic party's primaries is 1 year from today. There is enough time for RFK and his campaign team to work and get more supporters behind him. Joe Biden might also be helping him by just being sleepy Joe Biden hehehehe. The American economy is suffering because of Bidenomics. This is an example where putting your name with the word economics might not be a very good idea hehehe.

Kennedy is also close to 70 years old. He is not that young, although when compared to Joe Biden he seems to be in good health. From what I have seen so far, he lacks a dedicated demographic group which would propel him to the nomination among Democrat voters. Sanders back in 2016 had the youth rallying behind him (and still lost the nomination because of super-delegates). Kennedy's position is much weaker when compared to that of Sanders in 2016. But as you mentioned, a lot of time remains and Kennedy may spring a surprise.

[Betwrong]

~

Odds that are so rounded like that 10.0 always look a bit suspicious to me. It's like they know it's off, but they don't know exactly how unlikely that event is, so they put a round number, like 10 in this case.

The closer it is to actually happen, the more detail they add, like Biden and Trump odds in this case for example.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it's not like this: "Just some bloke hired to do the job, to set the odds as he sees fit. Robert Kennedy? OK, I'll make them odds rounded for him, like 10.00, just for the fun of it. Let's see what happens." No. No way it's like that. The odds are set by an algorithm that takes into account how much money was bet on this or that candidate. Those "10.00" was just a coincidence. It's just so happened that they were exactly 10.00 that day I took the screenshot. Actually, on the same platform they are different now:



See?

~

To be honest, there is a very real possibility of Trump getting elected again.
People thought that Trump running for president was a joke, and he winning was even a bigger joke. But it happened and it can happen again.

There are bettors who count on it, though, in my personal opinion Trump's chances of winning could decrease as he moves from the Republican inner struggle for power towards a general election where more moderate people participate.

I am curious what would happen to his odds if he ends up running from prison.

His odds will be 20.00 then, I predict.

~

They can't really comment on that as majority see him more fit then trump. Haters are just going to hate and obviously keep seeing him unfit. I find it weird that there are young, and actually capable people in US then any of the favorites. Pete Buttigieg for example would be highly capable presidental candinate. He is smart and quick as hell. But people keep voting for dinoraurs for some reason.

They may have their reasons, but for us here that is of minor importance. What's important is to decide whose chances of being elected are the best.

~

Why are you angrily forcing people to bet on Trump? No one in this thread knows anything better than what we read from the news and speculate what might really be happening. Also, the smart bettors would only place their bets after each of the political parties have declared their nominees. Trump presently with those odds is certainly not a very good bet considering that he is also being indicted with various cases.

You are joking, right? I'm not. I'm definitely not forcing anyone to bet on Trump.

[tusandii]

Kennedy is also close to 70 years old. He is not that young, although when compared to Joe Biden he seems to be in good health. From what I have seen so far, he lacks a dedicated demographic group which would propel him to the nomination among Democrat voters. Sanders back in 2016 had the youth rallying behind him (and still lost the nomination because of super-delegates). Kennedy's position is much weaker when compared to that of Sanders in 2016. But as you mentioned, a lot of time remains and Kennedy may spring a surprise.

I don't see that Kennedy will be better than Biden, even when compared, the way they both work in government is almost the same, although it is true that Kennedy may still be better in terms of health.
If Kennedy did run for the democratic election, would there be a chance for him to win the election?
I think it was difficult even as a mere person throwing money away when Kennedy decided to run as a candidate for election.
He now has peace so what else is expected to run for office?

[Hispo]

I very much disagree that Robert Kennedy's nomination is near zero. The Democtratic party's primaries is 1 year from today. There is enough time for RFK and his campaign team to work and get more supporters behind him. Joe Biden might also be helping him by just being sleepy Joe Biden hehehehe. The American economy is suffering because of Bidenomics. This is an example where putting your name with the word economics might not be a very good idea hehehe.

Kennedy is also close to 70 years old. He is not that young, although when compared to Joe Biden he seems to be in good health. From what I have seen so far, he lacks a dedicated demographic group which would propel him to the nomination among Democrat voters. Sanders back in 2016 had the youth rallying behind him (and still lost the nomination because of super-delegates). Kennedy's position is much weaker when compared to that of Sanders in 2016. But as you mentioned, a lot of time remains and Kennedy may spring a surprise.

Funnily enough, Bernie Sanders was the closest the United States was from becoming a socialist country, and yet I am sure he could have not change the capitalist system which rules over all the country. He managed to get the support of the youth and even a good percentage of the Hispanic-American population and black people.

Kennedy does not only lack of a demographic support, his ideas and political speech is more appealing to Republicans than Democrats, he is pretty much out of place. If he is even allowed to debate Joe Biden in live national TV, it would be a mess for him, keeping in mind the public would be mostly Democrat voters.

[Sithara007]

Funnily enough, Bernie Sanders was the closest the United States was from becoming a socialist country, and yet I am sure he could have not change the capitalist system which rules over all the country. He managed to get the support of the youth and even a good percentage of the Hispanic-American population and black people.

Kennedy does not only lack of a demographic support, his ideas and political speech is more appealing to Republicans than Democrats, he is pretty much out of place. If he is even allowed to debate Joe Biden in live national TV, it would be a mess for him, keeping in mind the public would be mostly Democrat voters.

If Kennedy is more appealing for Republican voters, then it means that Democrat party has swung too far to the left. What would have made core Democrat voter base two decades ago will be labelled as far-right by the Democrat establishment right now. I would love to see Kennedy debating Biden. You may assume that it maybe a disaster for Kennedy. But IMO, it is going to be the other way around. Biden is going to make some blunder (despite bias from the moderators) and then his support base is going to get really shaky. 

[Hispo]

Funnily enough, Bernie Sanders was the closest the United States was from becoming a socialist country, and yet I am sure he could have not change the capitalist system which rules over all the country. He managed to get the support of the youth and even a good percentage of the Hispanic-American population and black people.

Kennedy does not only lack of a demographic support, his ideas and political speech is more appealing to Republicans than Democrats, he is pretty much out of place. If he is even allowed to debate Joe Biden in live national TV, it would be a mess for him, keeping in mind the public would be mostly Democrat voters.

If Kennedy is more appealing for Republican voters, then it means that Democrat party has swung too far to the left. What would have made core Democrat voter base two decades ago will be labelled as far-right by the Democrat establishment right now. I would love to see Kennedy debating Biden. You may assume that it maybe a disaster for Kennedy. But IMO, it is going to be the other way around. Biden is going to make some blunder (despite bias from the moderators) and then his support base is going to get really shaky.  

Kennedy is appealing to some Republican voters because of the rethoric he lately uses during interviews, which is similar to some beliefs from the far right. There are punctual coincidences, not enough for Kennedy to have much influence over the average Republican voter.

On the other hand, If Somehow Kennedy actually went on debating Biden and managed to weaken the current support the latter has, that would only help Trump to win the race easily, because it would make people from the political center to reconsider his vote for Biden and decided to either not vote or find another alternative within independent candidates.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Looking at the odds, I noticed two things - Biden's odds have worsened, and surprisingly Kennedy is now a very serious contender. I am a bit perplexed. Opinion polls are not showing a downward trend for Biden, or an upward trend for Kennedy. That said, for the greater good of world peace, I would love to see Kennedy as the POTUS in 2024, and he is much more preferable than either Biden or Trump. And in case he manages to secure the Democrat nomination, then he will be able to beat either Trump or DeSantis relatively easily.

No way Kennedy is a serious contender with the nonsense he has been caught red handed saying both in private and in public. It is disappointing he is the only Democrat nominee who people is talking about (besides Biden), because I actually expected some able politician to step up and democratically challenge Joe in a debate, but Kennedy is rather a distraction, it is a circus.

His supporters are very likely to be Republicans from the MAGA branch who believe vaccines are poison...

Apart from Kennedy, who is the other serious contender to Democrat nomination? Harris dropped out after Biden made it clear that he will be running again. Marianne Williamson is the only other Democrat who has announced the candidature so far, and I haven't even heard about her before. There are rumors that Joe Manchin and Dean Phillips may jump in to the fray, but these two have almost zero chances of securing the nomination. And trust me, if it's between Biden and Kennedy, then I would chose the latter at any time of the day.

I am not fully aware of your political standing but why are the reasons someone would prefer to vote for Kennedy instead Biden. If one looks at the statistics Biden is actually working okey on the economy, it was said even on channels like Fox.

One of the things I definitely do not like about him is how he treats certain groups of people within the USA. The government is supposed to treat all of us in the same way.

There still chance some surprise candidate within the Democrat party takes us all by surprise, very much like Obama did back in the day.

Well, that is something very important and that can produce whether or not a president wins, in erosnal terms, when a government is more biased towards a certain type of public, or let's call it a certain part of the "people", the other part will react, that's lao very obvious, but it is not known how it is, perhaps the most common and that he has seen are harsh protests, that is what occurs mostly, some protests are quite radical, I don't know if you remember the time that Trump supporters took the White House, to me these things seemed unusual for them to happen in the USA, well I am not saying anything that this happens in third world countries, because I already see that as normal, but in the USA , where security is the main reason for your country , at that time I did not see a security body that could have requested that entry in that way, which seemed somewhat grotesque to me.

Now seeing that there are people who are in the USA and it is seen that they have not been treated in the same way as others because they are of a type X , the president or his policies go against those people, I think that is something that is not He is very professional, it is also the USA where the laws are always Complied with, in fact if we start to see many countries copied the US system of laws and that is or was their pattern at that time, what happens is that with the amendments and all those things that have been said because the laws have changed, that is why it seems incredible to me that partialisms exist and more so in this era where opticians have to win the affection of many, a bad face, or a praxis in the Treatment of a person is not Good.

In these times I have seen that world politics has been in constant change, it is no longer the same as a few years ago, I have seen that now politicians have more power, they need to have the power to make decisions almost in favor of their Own interests, and that's when it's bad, when they seize power to obtain their own benefits, and I don't know , something tells me that these Candidates currently want to be in Power for that.

[nullama]

~snip~
If Kennedy is more appealing for Republican voters, then it means that Democrat party has swung too far to the left. What would have made core Democrat voter base two decades ago will be labelled as far-right by the Democrat establishment right now. I would love to see Kennedy debating Biden. You may assume that it maybe a disaster for Kennedy. But IMO, it is going to be the other way around. Biden is going to make some blunder (despite bias from the moderators) and then his support base is going to get really shaky. 

I don't think there's any chance for Kennedy to be honest.

The options will simply be Trump and Biden.

The US is extremely polarized, and I just don't see any third party being remotely close to those two.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I don't think there's any chance for Kennedy to be honest.

The options will simply be Trump and Biden.

The US is extremely polarized, and I just don't see any third party being remotely close to those two.

I think the same. And I think Trump as a candidate is the best thing that can happen to Biden and the Democrats, because Trump is going to make a lot of undecided and Democratic-minded people go vote against him, who would otherwise stay at home as a punishment for the management of these years.