Showdown: Trump Vs Haley. Bitcoin betting on the 2024 US Presidential Election

[348Judah]

The hush money issue is lighting up the American political scene. Yesterday one of the appeals courts asked Stormy Daniels to pay $121,000 to Donald Trump to reimburse the legal fees, for a defamation suit which she lost in 2018. At the same time, Trump is being charged with a 34-count felony, for falsifying business record to camouflage the business records in order to hide the hush money payment. From what I can see, Trump is losing a lot more than what he is gaining, and this should officially put an end to his 2024 ambitions.

I also have a doubt in Trump's presidential ambition this second term, he has been on a lot track records of allegations on different levels, sone have statee from their perspective that he looses memory atimes when giving speech, the fisrt mistake he made was by loosing the past presidential race and once that opportunity is gone, it may not be recoverable anymore, there's no more attempts from people showing interest in his second coming, he would have just join and tean up a candidate in other to build up a resistant for the party he support than coming out for the race himself because i don't think people will have interest much in him.

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[Betwrong]

~ But, in practice, I doubt that Trump will still get that many votes in order to be elected president again.
His popularity is not what it used to be and his actions after the last defeat made Trump lose a lot of credibility.

That might be true, but who then? Who do think will be nominated by the Republican Party?

As we can see, most gamblers think it will be Trump



And as for the Democrats



most gamblers think it will be Joe Biden.

I personally think that right now it is more appropriate for us gamblers to think about betting on the nominees, rather than on the next president. What do you guys think?

[virasisog]

The hush money issue is lighting up the American political scene. Yesterday one of the appeals courts asked Stormy Daniels to pay $121,000 to Donald Trump to reimburse the legal fees, for a defamation suit which she lost in 2018. At the same time, Trump is being charged with a 34-count felony, for falsifying business record to camouflage the business records in order to hide the hush money payment. From what I can see, Trump is losing a lot more than what he is gaining, and this should officially put an end to his 2024 ambitions.

I also have a doubt in Trump's presidential ambition this second term, he has been on a lot track records of allegations on different levels, sone have statee from their perspective that he looses memory atimes when giving speech, the fisrt mistake he made was by loosing the past presidential race and once that opportunity is gone, it may not be recoverable anymore, there's no more attempts from people showing interest in his second coming, he would have just join and tean up a candidate in other to build up a resistant for the party he support than coming out for the race himself because i don't think people will have interest much in him.

His lost on the previous election is proof that people aren't contented and satisfied with his leadership and governance. He already has the opportunity and edge against his previous opponents but he still lost which simply means that he has lots of controversies and allegations which ruined his reputation. Once you lost the opportunity to win onur second term, it will be hard for you to regain your spot again because people might have lost their trust in you.

[o48o]

-cut-
I personally think that right now it is more appropriate for us gamblers to think about betting on the nominees, rather than on the next president. What do you guys think?

Wait what do you mean by this? Shouldn't we bet for a winner to win ourselves? Or are you talking about betting the order on who gets most votes and who comes for second and third? I haven't seen an option for that but i would be very much interested on that. Or have i completely missed your point? Could you elaborate more.

[Hispo]

Actually, in the United States there are several registered parties, from both the right and the left of the political spectrum and they have only been able to win one or two seats in the House or senate in the past.

What happens is that in America, both the Republican party and the Democrat Party share most of the power, influence, money from donors and attention from the media. If a third party wanted to have attention from the media to increase their votes, it would be very difficult to achieve so, since the channels are biased in favor of those parties and it would not be convenient for them if an outsider won.

It is a very disadvantageous system to independents.

When was the last time a party other than the Democrats and Republicans won any of the senate races? Please don't give the examples of independent candidates, because I don't think that any of them could have won without the support from the two mainstream parties. At this point, there are 3 independent senators - Angus King of Maine, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Sanders of Vermont. But all three of them are aligned with the Democratic Party. And as far as I know there are no independent or third party members in the House.

I tried to find some history on the performance of the other parties but for now I have not had any luck. I recall some members of those independent parties winning some seat in the house of representatives in the past, but it seems that in this occasion both the house and the senate are completely blue/red.

Again, that is a pity, because it does not help to build a better democracy in the united States, as both dominant parties continue to fight each other instead solving issues. I'll ask some of my friends from there and see if they can provide me with more sources to check the Green party and the Libertarian party.

The Cannabis party, I would not take them so seriously nowadays, because the public perception on weed has changed in comparison to the early 2000s.

[nullama]

~snip~
Wait what do you mean by this? Shouldn't we bet for a winner to win ourselves? Or are you talking about betting the order on who gets most votes and who comes for second and third? I haven't seen an option for that but i would be very much interested on that. Or have i completely missed your point? Could you elaborate more.

I think you can bet about anything, not only who ends up winning.

You can bet on who gets second, third, etc, just like in a horse race for example.

[LUCKMCFLY]

The funny thing is that the media covers more Trump than the actual president.

It's a weird thing to be honest.

That may work in different ways, depending on the circumstances. But at this point, there is a lot of anger against Biden due to high inflation and faltering economy. And all the negative publicity for Trump may work in to his advantage because of this fact. Already opinion polls are putting Trump ahead of Biden by 4%. Remember that he never enjoyed this advantage before, even during the peak of his campaigning in 2016 and 2020. Even in the 2016 POTUS election, he trailed Hillary Clinton by 2.1% vote. This is the first time that polls are showing him significantly ahead in nation-wide vote.

I think that they cover Trump more so that Trump gets much more attention, he is one of the beings that attracts the most, the speeches, what he wants to indicate are things that not all the candidates dare to say, maybe that's why it is that he is so popular, and I have seen a lot of information where they emphasize that Trump will return to the presidency, I don't know if the common Citizen of the USA likes Trump's style, in his previous Term did they like what he did? although the wall was never built and that is something that really took away a lot of popularity and weight from his mandate.

On the other hand, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding his situation, it is not known how it will turn out, he pleaded not guilty to the charges that accused him,it remains to be seen how he comes out of all this.

[STT]

His prospect as a candidate doesnt get negated by any conviction, the hard core supporters will just say whatever and wait on the appeal and so on.  He might even do better for the publicity, does he even care about somebody objecting to his accounting I doubt it was his first rodeo just they are persistent this time in trying to throw him from his ride; my main doubt in fallout is from the swing voters.   The main reason Trump wont win is he already got a chance to deliver on his promises and fine ideas, so do people think he can pull a rabbit from the hat if given an encore; I would guess not enough support from those who can vote for either party and are required for an overall winning election run.

[Hispo]

I took a look at Trump's speech after attending to his indictment in New York and it is quite remarkable that he did not mostly talked about the crimes he was just indicted for but started to talk about the documents he took to his home from the White House and also on the Georgia case against him for trying to interfere on an election.

This may suggest that he knows that NY has taken the first step and broke the ice, the rest of prosecutors may feel more comfortable to indict him further and with cases which are far more serious than what he will face in New York.

At this point, getting Presidential immunity may be the only thing which could save him from getting convicted as a felon.

[Timelord2067]

At this point, getting Presidential immunity may be the only thing which could save him from getting convicted as a felon.

Which would require a Republican President to be in office which isn't even on the radar at this point.  No Democratic President (in their right mind) would pardon Trump.  The whole point of all of this is to keep Trump out of the White House.

I also saw on of the sit down interviews with Stormy Daniels over the week-end.  No hesitation in giving answers.

[Sithara007]

I think that they cover Trump more so that Trump gets much more attention, he is one of the beings that attracts the most, the speeches, what he wants to indicate are things that not all the candidates dare to say, maybe that's why it is that he is so popular, and I have seen a lot of information where they emphasize that Trump will return to the presidency, I don't know if the common Citizen of the USA likes Trump's style, in his previous Term did they like what he did? although the wall was never built and that is something that really took away a lot of popularity and weight from his mandate.

On the other hand, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding his situation, it is not known how it will turn out, he pleaded not guilty to the charges that accused him,it remains to be seen how he comes out of all this.

I don't necessarily agree with any of this. Back in 2016, Trump was relatively unknown and he needed whatever publicity he gets. And that worked to his advantage. Media channels such as MSNBC and CNN constantly targeted him, creating a sympathy wave in favor of Trump among the white working class. But the situation changed in 2020. Trump was well known, and his radical views polarized the voters. And unfortunately for him, the number of voters who opposed him remained much higher than those supporting him, and this situation remains to this day.

[nullama]

~snip~
I don't necessarily agree with any of this. Back in 2016, Trump was relatively unknown and he needed whatever publicity he gets. And that worked to his advantage. Media channels such as MSNBC and CNN constantly targeted him, creating a sympathy wave in favor of Trump among the white working class. But the situation changed in 2020. Trump was well known, and his radical views polarized the voters. And unfortunately for him, the number of voters who opposed him remained much higher than those supporting him, and this situation remains to this day.

It is surprising that Trump is shown on TV and discussed on multiple platforms more than the current sitting president of the US.

I can see how the US might end up voting for Trump, because at the end of the day the presidential elections are kinda just like a celebrity contest.

[Hispo]

At this point, getting Presidential immunity may be the only thing which could save him from getting convicted as a felon.

Which would require a Republican President to be in office which isn't even on the radar at this point.  No Democratic President (in their right mind) would pardon Trump.  The whole point of all of this is to keep Trump out of the White House.

I also saw on of the sit down interviews with Stormy Daniels over the week-end.  No hesitation in giving answers.

Actually I did not mean some Republican president pardoning Trump, I meant Trump being president for other 4 years which would grant him immunity. in the meantime, he could use the power to make sure he won't get prosecuted once he is a private citizen again.

He may even try to push one of his sons as president.

Also, as far as I know American presidents can only pardon Federal crimes which people have been judged and sentenced for, and since some of the cases against Mr.Trump are at a state-level, no Republican president could pardon him.

Federal pardons issued by the president apply only to federal offenses; they do not apply to state or local offenses or private civil offenses. Federal pardons also do not apply to cases of impeachment. Pardons for state crimes are handled by governors or a state pardon board

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_pardons_in_the_United_States#Limitations

[tygeade]

Actually I did not mean some Republican president pardoning Trump, I meant Trump being president for other 4 years which would grant him immunity. in the meantime, he could use the power to make sure he won't get prosecuted once he is a private citizen again.

He may even try to push one of his sons as president.

Also, as far as I know American presidents can only pardon Federal crimes which people have been judged and sentenced for, and since some of the cases against Mr.Trump are at a state-level, no Republican president could pardon him.

I would guess that there would be some states that would not even let him run on the count that he is a criminal. I mean the court has to decide that he committed a crime fair and square before we could see that but if they can speed this up and make a decision before the voting starts, that means he will not be considered eligible to run in some places. Even if a few states do not allow him, that would guarantee that he will not win.

This is the type of guy who would make a big scene out of that as well but there won't be anything to do. How did DeSantis got this much attention? I feel like if Republicans looked harder, they could actually find a decent human to go against Biden and win anyway.

[Sithara007]

It is surprising that Trump is shown on TV and discussed on multiple platforms more than the current sitting president of the US.

I can see how the US might end up voting for Trump, because at the end of the day the presidential elections are kinda just like a celebrity contest.

We still have another 18 months to go for the next POTUS elections, but Trump is leading Biden by a big margin in most of the recent opinion polls. And remember that Trump doesn't need to win the popular vote to become next president. Even in 2016, he won 3 million less votes when compared to the Democrat candidate and yet he received a majority of the electoral votes. That is how the system works in the United States. GOP do have an advantage, because there are a lot of deep-blue states where the Democrat votes are concentrated.

[Hispo]

It is surprising that Trump is shown on TV and discussed on multiple platforms more than the current sitting president of the US.

I can see how the US might end up voting for Trump, because at the end of the day the presidential elections are kinda just like a celebrity contest.

We still have another 18 months to go for the next POTUS elections, but Trump is leading Biden by a big margin in most of the recent opinion polls. And remember that Trump doesn't need to win the popular vote to become next president. Even in 2016, he won 3 million less votes when compared to the Democrat candidate and yet he received a majority of the electoral votes. That is how the system works in the United States. GOP do have an advantage, because there are a lot of deep-blue states where the Democrat votes are concentrated.

In the United States they have the electoral college as a system allegedly designed to keep the power over the country distributed among all the states and their counties. The more electoral colleges a state has, the more power over the presidential election.

That is one of the reasons states like California and Texas are viewed as of big importance to Democrats and Republicans, since they have a significant quantity of electoral college power.

If that system was replaced by direct elections where the popular vote was the only thing that mattered, things would be very different in USA politics.

[nullama]

~snip~
We still have another 18 months to go for the next POTUS elections, but Trump is leading Biden by a big margin in most of the recent opinion polls. And remember that Trump doesn't need to win the popular vote to become next president. Even in 2016, he won 3 million less votes when compared to the Democrat candidate and yet he received a majority of the electoral votes. That is how the system works in the United States. GOP do have an advantage, because there are a lot of deep-blue states where the Democrat votes are concentrated.

Yes, the US electoral system is quite complicated, I guess there might be also bets on individual states as well as the whole election.

It will be very close I think, at least in some states.

[LUCKMCFLY]

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As to Kamala Vs Michelle (Obama)... My money would be on Kamala given her VP credentials.

Huh? If that would be true and Michelle Obama ran for precidency, Michelle would win by a landslide. In fact she could have even more votes then Barack Obama, but she won't be running. Fox news is just making stuff up as they always do. I would definitely like to see her running, but being a president is a consuming job if taken seriously. And i totally understand why she wouldn't want to take the job. I wouldn't want that job if i could just live comfortably instead without being in under constant pressure and every move being under a microscope. That sounds like hell to me.

LOL... are you sure about this? There is no doubt that Barack Obama was one of the most popular presidents in the history of the United States. And he was very much qualified for that job. But what about Michelle Obama? What are her qualifications? If we take experience in to account, then Kamala Harris is ahead by a big margin. And if you are assuming that Michelle will mobilize the colored voters, then don't forget the fact that she and Kamala belong to the same racial category. The probability of Michelle Obama becoming the Democrat nominee is as large as Elon Musk becoming the nominee of the GOP.

Well clearly that is something that seems to be very difficult, but couldn't you use the Popularity of Barack Obama to boost your wife?I don't know,maybe the wife receives very good information and strategy from her Husband and has an enviable alignment, apart from her preparation is with an expert, then all these things maybe the Americans will see her ,and well if this goes to another plane, where Possibly Trump is a great candidate, it Would be good to see the confrontations or debates,because Trump has to know that Michelle Obama is not Hilary Clinton ,and that the way to Address her can and should be done with much more restraint.

[Sithara007]

Yes, the US electoral system is quite complicated, I guess there might be also bets on individual states as well as the whole election.

It will be very close I think, at least in some states.

Both the systems have their own advantages and disadvantages. Electoral college system ensures that smaller states such as Wyoming and New Hampshire do have a significant role to play in the elections. On the other hand, it makes elections irrelevant in states where one of the parties dominate (such as Oklahoma or California). It also undermines minority party support in deep-red or deep-blue states. Democrat voters mostly stay at home in Oklahoma, and GOP voters do the same in California, as it is a foregone conclusion about who is going to win in these states.

[Betwrong]

-cut-
I personally think that right now it is more appropriate for us gamblers to think about betting on the nominees, rather than on the next president. What do you guys think?

Wait what do you mean by this? Shouldn't we bet for a winner to win ourselves? Or are you talking about betting the order on who gets most votes and who comes for second and third? I haven't seen an option for that but i would be very much interested on that. Or have i completely missed your point? Could you elaborate more.

What I meant was that there are sites, sportsbet.io is one of them, accepting bets on the nominees:





Maybe somewhere we can bet on who comes for second and third, but I don't know such places. Those opportunities, imo, would also be attractive.