Showdown: Trump Vs Haley. Bitcoin betting on the 2024 US Presidential Election

[Hispo]

I watched a documentary on Kamala Harris and I truly think that she would make a better president than Biden, but I do not think the US are ready for a female president.  

I would like to see a clash between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence for the next presidential election.... and Trump should go back to celebrity TV shows, where he is better equip to blow his own horn.  

The rush on the US Capital and Trump's contribution to that, should never be forgotten, even if he were acquitted from that.  

I do not see Harris giving a good fight against whoever the Republican candidate may be, even if she goes against Pence she would not have much chances, because in spite of the bad blood many republican voters have against Pence (since what happened between Trump and him on Jan 6th), those in the base still would rather to vote for Pence than giving their vote to Harris.

Heck, they would even vote for him after the things he recently said against Trump, the capitol attack and the plan to overturn the election.

Mike Pence: history will hold Donald Trump accountable over Capitol attack

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/12/mike-pence-donald-trump-was-wrong-history-will-hold-him-accountable

“What happened that day was a disgrace,” Pence told the Gridiron audience. “And it mocks decency to portray it any other way. For as long as I live, I will never, ever diminish the injuries sustained, the lives lost, or the heroism of law enforcement on that tragic day.”

A Trump spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Pence’s remarks came a few days after the Fox News host Tucker Carlson aired highly selective, misleading security footage of the Capitol attack, in an attempt to claim many rioters were “orderly”.

Carlson’s depiction was sharply criticised by Democrats and Senate Republicans. Many other Republicans, particularly in the House of Representatives, shrugged off the episode.

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[Betwrong]

~.... and Trump should go back to celebrity TV shows, where he is better equip to blow his own horn.  

The rush on the US Capital and Trump's contribution to that, should never be forgotten, even if he were acquitted from that.  

This is what I'm totally agree with you on. It was just a miracle that things didn't turn out much worse. The attack on the United States Capitol, I mean. In a less Democratic country Trump would go to jail for his contribution to that. But unfortunately many Americans, I feel like almost half of them, but I would be happy to be wrong about this, many Americans support Republicans. And among Republicans around 60% want see Donald Trump as the president.

[FanEagle]

Mike Pence: history will hold Donald Trump accountable over Capitol attack

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/12/mike-pence-donald-trump-was-wrong-history-will-hold-him-accountable

“What happened that day was a disgrace,” Pence told the Gridiron audience. “And it mocks decency to portray it any other way. For as long as I live, I will never, ever diminish the injuries sustained, the lives lost, or the heroism of law enforcement on that tragic day.”

A Trump spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Pence’s remarks came a few days after the Fox News host Tucker Carlson aired highly selective, misleading security footage of the Capitol attack, in an attempt to claim many rioters were “orderly”.

Carlson’s depiction was sharply criticised by Democrats and Senate Republicans. Many other Republicans, particularly in the House of Representatives, shrugged off the episode.

This Mike Pence thing feels like a cheap shot if you ask me. Trump is a terrible person, I am not even talking about how he was as a president, that was horrible as well but not just that, he was also a terrible human being, lack of empathy and lack of respect is proof that a person could do things that are beyond what normal humans are capable of because empathy is a thing that holds most of us back from being terrible.

Mike Pence put a big confirmation and support on that, and did 4 years of vice presidency under him, and now he talks about Trump did something wrong? Where were you for 4 years when he was a terrible person? Hiding behind your new powerful position?

[Sithara007]

This is what I'm totally agree with you on. It was just a miracle that things didn't turn out much worse. The attack on the United States Capitol, I mean. In a less Democratic country Trump would go to jail for his contribution to that. But unfortunately many Americans, I feel like almost half of them, but I would be happy to be wrong about this, many Americans support Republicans. And among Republicans around 60% want see Donald Trump as the president.

From where did you got this 60% figure? Because most of the opinion polls I have seen give 40% to 45% support for Donald Trump, with DeSantis trailing him with support from 25% to 35%. DeSantis is still unknown to many of the GOP voters outside Florida. And in due course of time, I would expect him to attract most of the anti-Trump support within the GOP. In case Trump is polling below the 50% mark, it is a red flag for him. Because he is a known figure and it means that a majority of the GOP voters don't want him to be the Republican nominee.

[nullama]

~snip~
From where did you got this 60% figure? Because most of the opinion polls I have seen give 40% to 45% support for Donald Trump, with DeSantis trailing him with support from 25% to 35%. DeSantis is still unknown to many of the GOP voters outside Florida. And in due course of time, I would expect him to attract most of the anti-Trump support within the GOP. In case Trump is polling below the 50% mark, it is a red flag for him. Because he is a known figure and it means that a majority of the GOP voters don't want him to be the Republican nominee.

It's hard to be convinced with any poll because at the end of the day they're just samples.

Also, many people will never say they vote for X then they go and do exactly that at voting day.

So, it will probably be a close call, with anyone able to win really. It will be controversial as usual in the US these days.

[Sithara007]

It's hard to be convinced with any poll because at the end of the day they're just samples.

Also, many people will never say they vote for X then they go and do exactly that at voting day.

So, it will probably be a close call, with anyone able to win really. It will be controversial as usual in the US these days.

In the US, opinion polls are usually very reliable. One notable exception was during the 2016 election, when the polls went completely wrong. And the reason was the last minute decision by several of the Sanders supporters to stay at home, which reduced the overall turnout, and helped Donald Trump to virtually sweep the rust-belt states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. However the pollsters adjusted their methodology in 2020 and the opinion polls closely matched the actual results for POTUS elections that year.

[Hispo]

Mike Pence: history will hold Donald Trump accountable over Capitol attack

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/12/mike-pence-donald-trump-was-wrong-history-will-hold-him-accountable

“What happened that day was a disgrace,” Pence told the Gridiron audience. “And it mocks decency to portray it any other way. For as long as I live, I will never, ever diminish the injuries sustained, the lives lost, or the heroism of law enforcement on that tragic day.”

A Trump spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Pence’s remarks came a few days after the Fox News host Tucker Carlson aired highly selective, misleading security footage of the Capitol attack, in an attempt to claim many rioters were “orderly”.

Carlson’s depiction was sharply criticised by Democrats and Senate Republicans. Many other Republicans, particularly in the House of Representatives, shrugged off the episode.

This Mike Pence thing feels like a cheap shot if you ask me. Trump is a terrible person, I am not even talking about how he was as a president, that was horrible as well but not just that, he was also a terrible human being, lack of empathy and lack of respect is proof that a person could do things that are beyond what normal humans are capable of because empathy is a thing that holds most of us back from being terrible.

Mike Pence put a big confirmation and support on that, and did 4 years of vice presidency under him, and now he talks about Trump did something wrong? Where were you for 4 years when he was a terrible person? Hiding behind your new powerful position?

We are not here to discuss whether politicians in the United States crave for power or not. At this point of the game, I would dare to say it is a confirmed fact and that applies to Mike Pence, otherwise he would not be running for the Presidency. Back then, the cost of the power he had was to remain silent and play along.

The weird part of Mike's situation now is that he is not even sure what the price to come back to power is nowadays. He does not want to attack Trump (to avoid upsetting the base), but he does not want to be kept in the record as someone in favor of Trump's anti-democratic policies and attempts.


In other News, Trump is now blaming what happened in the capitol to Mike Pence.

Trump Blames Mike Pence For Jan. 6 Violence For Not Going Along With His Coup Attempt

Source: https://news.yahoo.com/trump-blames-mike-pence-jan-221444807.html

WASHINGTON ― Donald Trump, whose coup attempt on Jan. 6, 2021, put his vice president’s life at risk as a mob of his supporters attacked the U.S. Capitol, on Monday blamed Mike Pence for the violence that day because he didn’t go along with the scheme.

“Had he sent the votes back to the legislators, they wouldn’t have had a problem with Jan. 6,” the former president told reporters on a flight to an Iowa campaign stop. “So in many ways, you can blame him for Jan. 6.”

[FanEagle]

It's hard to be convinced with any poll because at the end of the day they're just samples.

Also, many people will never say they vote for X then they go and do exactly that at voting day.

So, it will probably be a close call, with anyone able to win really. It will be controversial as usual in the US these days.

In the US, opinion polls are usually very reliable. One notable exception was during the 2016 election, when the polls went completely wrong. And the reason was the last minute decision by several of the Sanders supporters to stay at home, which reduced the overall turnout, and helped Donald Trump to virtually sweep the rust-belt states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. However the pollsters adjusted their methodology in 2020 and the opinion polls closely matched the actual results for POTUS elections that year.

This has been refuted a million times already, but for some reason it is talked about like it's a fact to this day, even 7 years later.

Bernie Sanders voters didn't stay at home, not in a bulk movement type of way at least, of course individuals could have stayed at home there is no argument there, but there was no "stay at home" movement by bernie sanders groups, they all went to vote and they all voted for Hillary, even though Hilary Clinton obviously cheated the system to get it, people wanted Bernie to be nominated and Clintons just used their political power to strong arm and get the votes from a few special key people, that's why she lost in the end as well.

[Sithara007]

This has been refuted a million times already, but for some reason it is talked about like it's a fact to this day, even 7 years later.

Bernie Sanders voters didn't stay at home, not in a bulk movement type of way at least, of course individuals could have stayed at home there is no argument there, but there was no "stay at home" movement by bernie sanders groups, they all went to vote and they all voted for Hillary, even though Hilary Clinton obviously cheated the system to get it, people wanted Bernie to be nominated and Clintons just used their political power to strong arm and get the votes from a few special key people, that's why she lost in the end as well.

I don't know how accurate this is. Else what would explain such large difference between the actual results, and the opinion polls? For example, In Wisconsin, Donald Trump managed to defeat Hillary Clinton by a margin of around 0.8%. But opinion polls taken just before the elections had Hillary leading by a margin of up to 8 points. Same with Michigan and Pennsylvania as well. If Sanders supporters actually went to vote for Hillary, what would explain this sharp difference between the actual and predicted results?

[FanEagle]

I don't know how accurate this is. Else what would explain such large difference between the actual results, and the opinion polls? For example, In Wisconsin, Donald Trump managed to defeat Hillary Clinton by a margin of around 0.8%. But opinion polls taken just before the elections had Hillary leading by a margin of up to 8 points. Same with Michigan and Pennsylvania as well. If Sanders supporters actually went to vote for Hillary, what would explain this sharp difference between the actual and predicted results?

Because, it has been parroted by Hillary Clinton a million times before and that is who people listen to and not the reality. I know that you may not want to believe this, and I know that this will be something EVERYONE in the world will go against, but you are aware that news lie to you, either A channel or B channel, but the reality is that all of them do, and you hear something from the one you like and you tend to believe that.

Bernie not only supported Hillary openly, literally campaigned for her, went to state by state everywhere she needed votes, he tweeted about her, she donated to her campaign, and not only that but he literally was eating all the lies she told about him. She said she won by landslide when in fact Bernie won the voters and Hillary only won the superdeletages and that's it, regular people like you and me? ALL of them voted for Bernie, and Hillary just greased the hands of a few super delegates to win it, that's it, a few people over millions and that's how she won and EVEN with that, Bernie still toured all the states and campaigned for her and yet she said Bernie voters stayed at home to find a reason.

What was she suppose to say, people hated me? Of course not, she would not say that, so she had to find a lie, and her lie was that Bernie supporters didn't vote for her out of spite, which is an obvious lie. The difference in the polls wasn't just there, polls never found Trumps right place, they gave him 1% chance to be republican nominee too, and he got it, polls mean nothing at all.

[LUCKMCFLY]

DeSantis continues with with evasion tactic

He isnt going to win if he never represents, he cant win on just being known in Florida clearly so he has to fight somewhere and apparently saw no gain in doing so early in this venue.  I wonder if DeSantis is waiting for Trump to lose before he tries to win.   The biggest events in that race might be entirely 3rd party such as legal proceedings or other measures if any though I actually think there isnt any real case to bear especially.  People rioted and they shouldn't have, Trump should have admitted defeat and conceded but you cant try people for not agreeing with you or bad faith in a democratic system.
   Im not a fan of any of these guys but I think any prosecution against Trump would only be biased and appear malicious and interfering with democracy which makes it a completely ironic and self defeating attempt at justice.  They tried him twice as President and it didn't pass just like the attempt on Clinton in the 90's was mostly fuss with no real gain possible.
  People and the mainstream are almost completely separate to the undercurrents of politics which is probably a good thing, I'll wait for the crowd to weigh in but at present the precedent is with any serving president to continue.

If things are like this,then where is politics headed in the USA?The political currents in this country seem to be out of control, I don't know what the people of North America are looking for,but apparently they don't have anything clear, there are many candidates who are quite radical, others who seek political currents that seek to improve on the one hand but to make it worse for another,these things in the most emblematic country in the world is quite curious, because if we compare it with any other country, politics is very different,it goes very much in the direction of simple things,but in the USA there is a lot at stake,even decisions for wars.

[Sithara007]

I don't know how reliable this is, but a poll from Emerson for Florida on Republican Presidential Primary, puts Donald Trump ahead of Ron DeSantis by a 3 point margin (47-44). If this trend holds, it can be huge for Trump. But they released one more poll, on 2024 POTUS election. Trump is tied with Biden (44-44), while DeSantis leads Biden by a 3 point margin (46-43). Just shows that DeSantis is a better candidate representing the GOP for 2024. But if he can't get enough support for his nomination in his home state, how can he win the primaries?

[Hispo]

I don't know how reliable this is, but a poll from Emerson for Florida on Republican Presidential Primary, puts Donald Trump ahead of Ron DeSantis by a 3 point margin (47-44). If this trend holds, it can be huge for Trump. But they released one more poll, on 2024 POTUS election. Trump is tied with Biden (44-44), while DeSantis leads Biden by a 3 point margin (46-43). Just shows that DeSantis is a better candidate representing the GOP for 2024. But if he can't get enough support for his nomination in his home state, how can he win the primaries?

Perhaps that difference of points can be due to the fact DeSantis is not officially running yet and some of the base is expecting him to announce his run before supporting him explicitly, but as I already said, his advertisements on TV and the recent endorsements are those of someone who is indeed running, instead someone who is not.

In other News, today I have seen videos that Mr.Trump could get indicted very soon in relation to the affair he had with the porn Star and the money he had to pay to keep her from talking about it during his 2016 presidential campaign.

Ironically, if the indictment happens, Trump could be able to use it on his favor to ignite his base and further to push his narrative of a political witch-hunt against him. In some normal circumstances, a candidate being indicted would be almost a game-over in the run, but these are not normal circumstances, at all.

[slapper]

I don't know how reliable this is, but a poll from Emerson for Florida on Republican Presidential Primary, puts Donald Trump ahead of Ron DeSantis by a 3 point margin (47-44). If this trend holds, it can be huge for Trump. But they released one more poll, on 2024 POTUS election. Trump is tied with Biden (44-44), while DeSantis leads Biden by a 3 point margin (46-43). Just shows that DeSantis is a better candidate representing the GOP for 2024. But if he can't get enough support for his nomination in his home state, how can he win the primaries?

Perhaps that difference of points can be due to the fact DeSantis is not officially running yet and some of the base is expecting him to announce his run before supporting him explicitly, but as I already said, his advertisements on TV and the recent endorsements are those of someone who is indeed running, instead someone who is not.

In other News, today I have seen videos that Mr.Trump could get indicted very soon in relation to the affair he had with the porn Star and the money he had to pay to keep her from talking about it during his 2016 presidential campaign.

Ironically, if the indictment happens, Trump could be able to use it on his favor to ignite his base and further to push his narrative of a political witch-hunt against him. In some normal circumstances, a candidate being indicted would be almost a game-over in the run, but these are not normal circumstances, at all.

The Republican Party nomination contest is, therefore, becoming increasingly intense. Who knew a simple poll could cause so much speculation and drama? The beauty of politics, my friends, is that nothing is decided until every vote is counted.

And Trump, of course, could utilize the whole situation to his advantage. He might mobilize his most devoted supporters by declaring that he is being targeted by a biased system. It's a tried-and-true strategy that has benefited numerous leaders throughout history. But I have to wonder if it's ever a good idea to constantly claim helplessness. Perhaps, as a collective, we need to stop fretting over individual matters and give our attention to societal issues. Here are a few considerations.

[Sithara007]

Perhaps that difference of points can be due to the fact DeSantis is not officially running yet and some of the base is expecting him to announce his run before supporting him explicitly, but as I already said, his advertisements on TV and the recent endorsements are those of someone who is indeed running, instead someone who is not.

In other News, today I have seen videos that Mr.Trump could get indicted very soon in relation to the affair he had with the porn Star and the money he had to pay to keep her from talking about it during his 2016 presidential campaign.

Ironically, if the indictment happens, Trump could be able to use it on his favor to ignite his base and further to push his narrative of a political witch-hunt against him. In some normal circumstances, a candidate being indicted would be almost a game-over in the run, but these are not normal circumstances, at all.

Last month, there was a poll from Univ. of North Florida, which put DeSantis ahead of Trump by a 52-27 margin. So the latest poll is an issue for DeSantis, in case the numbers are accurate. Still, nation-wide, DeSantis commands much better approval ratings when compared to Trump. His net favorability rating is +4.0%, while for Trump it is -13.7%. I still have a feeling that the only obstacle that lies between the president post for Ron DeSantis is Donald Trump. GOP will win POTUS 2024 if they are able to get Trump disqualified to run elections.

[Hispo]

Perhaps that difference of points can be due to the fact DeSantis is not officially running yet and some of the base is expecting him to announce his run before supporting him explicitly, but as I already said, his advertisements on TV and the recent endorsements are those of someone who is indeed running, instead someone who is not.

In other News, today I have seen videos that Mr.Trump could get indicted very soon in relation to the affair he had with the porn Star and the money he had to pay to keep her from talking about it during his 2016 presidential campaign.

Ironically, if the indictment happens, Trump could be able to use it on his favor to ignite his base and further to push his narrative of a political witch-hunt against him. In some normal circumstances, a candidate being indicted would be almost a game-over in the run, but these are not normal circumstances, at all.

Last month, there was a poll from Univ. of North Florida, which put DeSantis ahead of Trump by a 52-27 margin. So the latest poll is an issue for DeSantis, in case the numbers are accurate. Still, nation-wide, DeSantis commands much better approval ratings when compared to Trump. His net favorability rating is +4.0%, while for Trump it is -13.7%. I still have a feeling that the only obstacle that lies between the president post for Ron DeSantis is Donald Trump. GOP will win POTUS 2024 if they are able to get Trump disqualified to run elections.

Well, let us see how polls behave once Trump is indicted on Tuesday (who himself has already declared is going to happen).
I suspect this will be first of multiple indictments that are going to follow and for even more serious charges which may have to do with January 6th and the classified documents he had in his home in Florida.

My prediction is that polls will turn even more in Trump's favor once he steps into court. He likes to fight, so does his base.

[nullama]

~snip~
Well, let us see how polls behave once Trump is indicted on Tuesday (who himself has already declared is going to happen).
I suspect this will be first of multiple indictments that are going to follow and for even more serious charges which may have to do with January 6th and the classified documents he had in his home in Florida.

My prediction is that polls will turn even more in Trump's favor once he steps into court. He likes to fight, so does his base.

I wonder if there's somewhere where you could bet if Trump goes to jail or not, or gets indicted or not, etc.

You can basically bet on everything these days, so he mentioned it could happen on Tuesday, we'll have to wait and see if it happens. Wonder what the odds for that are...

[redsun114]

It's true that Clinton was one of the worst ever candidates democrat party showed but it was also before Trumps presidency as well, that was the main reason why she lost.

I would wager that if you put Biden as the nominee in 2016 and put Hillary Clinton in 2020, then after 4 years of Trump, everyone would have voted for Hillary as well, they would have elected her with ease, because seeing how Trump was for 4 years was enough to give the biggest ever voting to Biden ever seen in history of voting, to be fair Trump got a lot of votes too but Biden got record shattering one, nearly what 15 million or more votes than the closest before that election? This is why Hillary lost in 2016, people weren't sure about Trump just yet then.

[STT]

A bet on Pence seems the most viable vs the outsider odds he would garner.   The only reason not to is the unlikely prospect he actually bothers to run, maybe its too soon and he would rather attempt a run in 4 years when the dust has settled.
  Typically the mid term election of a sitting president is not the ideal time to run as opposition to that, you should not expect to win against even a fairly unpopular president.  I think Clinton in the 90's famously managed to break into office despite the bias against it mostly because of the economy being especially bad in the early 90's.   Do we have that effect now I dont think its quite as a bad, so the bias towards a win has to go with Biden and Pence or any other candidate knows this much.
  2020 was a bad economic year, Trump lost.  No finer inspection of detail is required more then that; could be done on a spreadsheet over a century to illustrate a strong trend alignment for these factors.

[Betwrong]

This is what I'm totally agree with you on. It was just a miracle that things didn't turn out much worse. The attack on the United States Capitol, I mean. In a less Democratic country Trump would go to jail for his contribution to that. But unfortunately many Americans, I feel like almost half of them, but I would be happy to be wrong about this, many Americans support Republicans. And among Republicans around 60% want see Donald Trump as the president.

From where did you got this 60% figure? Because most of the opinion polls I have seen give 40% to 45% support for Donald Trump, with DeSantis trailing him with support from 25% to 35%. DeSantis is still unknown to many of the GOP voters outside Florida. And in due course of time, I would expect him to attract most of the anti-Trump support within the GOP. In case Trump is polling below the 50% mark, it is a red flag for him. Because he is a known figure and it means that a majority of the GOP voters don't want him to be the Republican nominee.

Polls are never 100% accurate. I don't remember where did I get that 60% figure, but I just googled it right now, and here's the latest The NY Times article on the matter(clickable):



Looks like Trump is getting more and more popular these days(among Republicans, of course), and it's possible that the odds on gambling sites for him to be the Republican presidential nominee will be lower in the future.