Showdown: Trump Vs Haley. Bitcoin betting on the 2024 US Presidential Election

[FanEagle]

First of all, we are not on official campaign period, so all these talks about who would be the nominee doesn't really make sense yet, nobody even officially declared yet.

Secondly, Trump is a former president and beating a former president on the reelection nomination is as hard as it gets. Sure dude lost and that is a terrible thing for the party, and they would rather have someone who could win, and last time Trump was in an election, that made democrats vote for their candidate a record amount, so that is a trouble but that doesn't mean that we are going to see the same thing again. Let's see how it will be after 4 years of Trump vs 4 years of Biden faces each other.

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[Hispo]

First of all, we are not on official campaign period, so all these talks about who would be the nominee doesn't really make sense yet, nobody even officially declared yet.

Secondly, Trump is a former president and beating a former president on the reelection nomination is as hard as it gets. Sure dude lost and that is a terrible thing for the party, and they would rather have someone who could win, and last time Trump was in an election, that made democrats vote for their candidate a record amount, so that is a trouble but that doesn't mean that we are going to see the same thing again. Let's see how it will be after 4 years of Trump vs 4 years of Biden faces each other.

It is actually relevant to talk about the future nominations, have you checked out the political climate in the United States these months?
Things are heating up, besides there already some people who are campaigning for the Republican party and there is enough data for the polls to work with.

The problem with Trump is that he is too unconventional for the establishment and at the same time that is why he is so appealing to the base of the party.

After this indictment, there is much more to talk about.

[nullama]

First of all, we are not on official campaign period, so all these talks about who would be the nominee doesn't really make sense yet, nobody even officially declared yet.

Secondly, Trump is a former president and beating a former president on the reelection nomination is as hard as it gets. Sure dude lost and that is a terrible thing for the party, and they would rather have someone who could win, and last time Trump was in an election, that made democrats vote for their candidate a record amount, so that is a trouble but that doesn't mean that we are going to see the same thing again. Let's see how it will be after 4 years of Trump vs 4 years of Biden faces each other.

The thing is that the United States is a really divided country. Anything can happen, as roughly 50% of the people hate the other half and think they are right and the others are wrong.

Not sure what's going to happen, but it will be close.

[Betwrong]

Recently I found a new poll, and now I'm not so sure that Trump has good chances to become the next president. Here it is:

https://i.imgur.com/O39wPck.png

Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/

I personally think that Trump is going to lose more of his popularity in the nearest future, and so I wouldn't bet a dime on him to become the next president.

Imo, it's either Ron DeSantis or Joe Biden, but also Kamala Harris and Michelle Obama are worth some consideration regarding betting on them.

Biden's poll numbers are similar to Trump. Neither candidate is very popular. Kamala Harris is doing even worse. US elections are no longer about which policies you support but which candidate you hate enough to go cast a vote against them.

Fair enough. Yet we, bettors, can take all those things into account, and make our bets today. Early bets are good because of the odds, in the first place. When one of the main contenders is in jail and another is out for some reason, and the third decides to not run for president at all, you won't get as good as 51.00 for someone like Mike Pence, for example.

[KTChampions]

Fair enough. Yet we, bettors, can take all those things into account, and make our bets today. Early bets are good because of the odds, in the first place. When one of the main contenders is in jail and another is out for some reason, and the third decides to not run for president at all, you won't get as good as 51.00 for someone like Mike Pence, for example.

A good choice, but seeing the situation with Trump (who is obviously very popular among ordinary people and has the best chances among Republicans), I do not believe that the Democrats will give up power. Biden's victory was very doubtful and it seems to me that if the "fair" results of the next election are not in favor of the Democrats, then we will see something similar again (like a huge percentage of votes in favor of a certain candidate using mail-in voting).
In general, it is better to refrain from betting on manipulated events.

[Hispo]

The poll differences since Trump was indicted seem to start to appear, according to some news media,in this case Yahoo.
What most of us expected is happening, Trump is leaving De Santis behind and this recent and unprecedented indictment has only accelerated and increased the gap between two candidates, in favor of Trump.

If I was De Santis, I would start to get more aggressive and try to appeal the base even harder, otherwise just drop any presidential aspirations already, things aren't looking good for him and anyone who dare to bet in this favor.

Post-indictment poll: Trump surges to largest-ever lead over DeSantis

Source: Yahoo News

A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll — one of the first conducted after former President Donald Trump was indicted Thursday for his role in paying hush money to a porn star — shows Trump surging to his largest-ever lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his likely 2024 GOP primary challenger, as Republican voters rally around the only president in U.S. history to face criminal charges.

But the new, post-indictment poll suddenly finds Trump lapping DeSantis by 26 percentage points — 57% to 31% — in a one-on-one contest. The former president even attracts majority support (52%, up from 44% previously) when pitted against a wider, 10-candidate field of declared and potential GOP challengers, while DeSantis plummets to 21% (down from 28%).

[SquallLeonhart]

The poll differences since Trump was indicted seem to start to appear, according to some news media,in this case Yahoo.
What most of us expected is happening, Trump is leaving De Santis behind and this recent and unprecedented indictment has only accelerated and increased the gap between two candidates, in favor of Trump.

If I was De Santis, I would start to get more aggressive and try to appeal the base even harder, otherwise just drop any presidential aspirations already, things aren't looking good for him and anyone who dare to bet in this favor.

I guess this has to explain the politics on republican side and that's enough of a situation isn't it? Trump got money from voters, as a way of donations, used that donation not to run for president alone, but also to keep pornstars silent, and that's illegal, and the voters are saying he can use my money to have sex with any pornstar he wants and pay them hush money illegally and I am fine with this.

This is exactly what happens, not that this should be illegal, obviously people can vote to whoever they want, but when people ask me why I think republicans are not smart people, at least we have a clear proof in our hands about why they are not really as bright as they come...

[Cookdata]

First of all, we are not on official campaign period, so all these talks about who would be the nominee doesn't really make sense yet, nobody even officially declared yet.

Secondly, Trump is a former president and beating a former president on the reelection nomination is as hard as it gets. Sure dude lost and that is a terrible thing for the party, and they would rather have someone who could win, and last time Trump was in an election, that made democrats vote for their candidate a record amount, so that is a trouble but that doesn't mean that we are going to see the same thing again. Let's see how it will be after 4 years of Trump vs 4 years of Biden faces each other.

The thing is that the United States is a really divided country. Anything can happen, as roughly 50% of the people hate the other half and think they are right and the others are wrong.

Not sure what's going to happen, but it will be close.

Trust me when I say that racism is dividing them politically. The fight for black freedom and police brutality is something I don't see ending anytime soon in the United States, it was a weapon used by Democrats since the appointment of Barack Obama as President of America, they lost against Trumph the republican with Clinton in 2016 and then the Corona period came, they upgraded this time and used NO to police brutality against blacks because Trump didn't say anything about those abuses, the opposition saw the opportunity and Biden used that again to remove incumbent Trump but they are not having this time with his government. Lord knows what will happen next between the Democrat war and the Republican.

[Hispo]

The poll differences since Trump was indicted seem to start to appear, according to some news media,in this case Yahoo.
What most of us expected is happening, Trump is leaving De Santis behind and this recent and unprecedented indictment has only accelerated and increased the gap between two candidates, in favor of Trump.

If I was De Santis, I would start to get more aggressive and try to appeal the base even harder, otherwise just drop any presidential aspirations already, things aren't looking good for him and anyone who dare to bet in this favor.

I guess this has to explain the politics on republican side and that's enough of a situation isn't it? Trump got money from voters, as a way of donations, used that donation not to run for president alone, but also to keep pornstars silent, and that's illegal, and the voters are saying he can use my money to have sex with any pornstar he wants and pay them hush money illegally and I am fine with this.

This is exactly what happens, not that this should be illegal, obviously people can vote to whoever they want, but when people ask me why I think republicans are not smart people, at least we have a clear proof in our hands about why they are not really as bright as they come...

If I am correct, the fact he paid that money to a porn star for her silence is not the serious part of the indictment, it is more about the efforts done to hide the transaction in a unlawful way.  In the United States, confidentiality agreements are not illegal, forgery of documents is.

Also, the fact Trump has a good chance to go back into the White next year is quite remarkable, specially after the things he have done as president in his first period.

Democrats are yet to announce anyone running for the presidency, aren't they?

[bittraffic]

The poll differences since Trump was indicted seem to start to appear, according to some news media,in this case Yahoo.
What most of us expected is happening, Trump is leaving De Santis behind and this recent and unprecedented indictment has only accelerated and increased the gap between two candidates, in favor of Trump.

If I was De Santis, I would start to get more aggressive and try to appeal the base even harder, otherwise just drop any presidential aspirations already, things aren't looking good for him and anyone who dare to bet in this favor.

I guess this has to explain the politics on republican side and that's enough of a situation isn't it? Trump got money from voters, as a way of donations, used that donation not to run for president alone, but also to keep pornstars silent, and that's illegal, and the voters are saying he can use my money to have sex with any pornstar he wants and pay them hush money illegally and I am fine with this.

This is exactly what happens, not that this should be illegal, obviously people can vote to whoever they want, but when people ask me why I think republicans are not smart people, at least we have a clear proof in our hands about why they are not really as bright as they come...

If I am correct, the fact he paid that money to a porn star for her silence is not the serious part of the indictment, it is more about the efforts done to hide the transaction in a unlawful way.  In the United States, confidentiality agreements are not illegal, forgery of documents is.

Also, the fact Trump has a good chance to go back into the White next year is quite remarkable, specially after the things he have done as president in his first period.

Democrats are yet to announce anyone running for the presidency, aren't they?

I think it's Biden still. There is no one else from Dems unless they put Kamala there which I don't think people will vote for her. The current admin is not establishing anyone. There's a year for Biden to prepare but seems a strategy already to let the economy fall and see whether any Republican will take his position in such a situation.

But because Trump is such obsessed with revenge, the Dems will give it to him for free. All blame will be on Trump once he is there.

[Hispo]

The poll differences since Trump was indicted seem to start to appear, according to some news media,in this case Yahoo.
What most of us expected is happening, Trump is leaving De Santis behind and this recent and unprecedented indictment has only accelerated and increased the gap between two candidates, in favor of Trump.

If I was De Santis, I would start to get more aggressive and try to appeal the base even harder, otherwise just drop any presidential aspirations already, things aren't looking good for him and anyone who dare to bet in this favor.

I guess this has to explain the politics on republican side and that's enough of a situation isn't it? Trump got money from voters, as a way of donations, used that donation not to run for president alone, but also to keep pornstars silent, and that's illegal, and the voters are saying he can use my money to have sex with any pornstar he wants and pay them hush money illegally and I am fine with this.

This is exactly what happens, not that this should be illegal, obviously people can vote to whoever they want, but when people ask me why I think republicans are not smart people, at least we have a clear proof in our hands about why they are not really as bright as they come...

If I am correct, the fact he paid that money to a porn star for her silence is not the serious part of the indictment, it is more about the efforts done to hide the transaction in a unlawful way.  In the United States, confidentiality agreements are not illegal, forgery of documents is.

Also, the fact Trump has a good chance to go back into the White next year is quite remarkable, specially after the things he have done as president in his first period.

Democrats are yet to announce anyone running for the presidency, aren't they?

I think it's Biden still. There is no one else from Dems unless they put Kamala there which I don't think people will vote for her. The current admin is not establishing anyone. There's a year for Biden to prepare but seems a strategy already to let the economy fall and see whether any Republican will take his position in such a situation.

But because Trump is such obsessed with revenge, the Dems will give it to him for free. All blame will be on Trump once he is there.

It is rather silly people of the democrat party would not step forward and challenge Biden, just because they want to be formal and do not create "division", democracy is supposed to be about challenging the leaders anytime there is a chance, in a pacific and organized way, and when it is perceived to be necessary for the common good.

In my opinion, if the democrat party nominates Biden without celebrating debates and primaries among them, it would look like a step forward to a model we already see in countries like China, where the members of the party do not dare to question the capabilities of the current leader. 

Biden is not perfect and people of his own party must say it to his face in a fearless way, perhaps if the nominee ends up being a young person, they may have a chance against Trump.

[STT]

Dont challenge him unless you really want to implement a different policy and have the backers to do so.  A person alone cannot stand without the support to go with it, so is there enough of a challenge to Biden; apparently not.

As for Trump he once was a member of the democrat party I think.  To say the country is 50/50 I think would be wrong, many will change vote to the other party if that candidate is able to support their jobs, livelihood, town or sector of the economy in a way that is valid and not currently supported.  My only point about Trump is he had his chance, do we really think he garners greater support in a future election.  The high tide mark is set, I dont see that as likely to be exceeded.

[bbc.reporter]

Well, guys. It seems that the run of De Santis is already losing steam against Trump and he is yet to announce he is officially running for the position.

I have seen some videos on Youtube suggesting that the gap in the polls between the two politicians is opening wide in favor of Trump. If this continues to be the case, we could see a scenario where he decides not to run for office and remain as a governor instead. This is one example of those articles, pointing out the position of De Santis these days.

I am expecting the gap to grow more even if Trump ends up getting charged in the state of New York.

As for Mike Pence, he would not be even running, as he stands no chance in this race.

Fox poll shows Trump’s lead over DeSantis growing

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/29/fox-poll-trump-desantis-00089593

A new Fox News poll released Wednesday showed former President Donald Trump widening his lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical GOP primary race.

Trump was the top pick for 54 percent of respondents, who were asked to choose from a list of potential 2024 Republican presidential nominees. DeSantis — who has yet to declare his candidacy, though he is widely expected to — came in as a distant second pick, with 24 percent of the vote. It’s a slight drop in support for the Florida governor, who nabbed 28 percent to Trump’s 43 percent in a Fox poll conducted late last month.

The month-to-month gain for Trump comes at a time when some Republicans fear support for Trump’s expected leading challenger is faltering.

If the Republicans want to win the next presidential election on 2024, they will have no other choice and nominate Trump as their candidate. I am quite certain that after 4 years of Biden's administration, more people would be voting anyone but whoever the Democrates nominate as their next candidate. Kamala Harris or Michelle Obama? Both of them would not have a chance to win in a presidential debate against Trump. This is the reason why the Democrats are using everything in their power to put him in prison hehehe.

Also, Trump has not yet announced that he is officially running? There were articles saying that he did, if I am not mistaken

[Sithara007]

Dont challenge him unless you really want to implement a different policy and have the backers to do so.  A person alone cannot stand without the support to go with it, so is there enough of a challenge to Biden; apparently not.

As for Trump he once was a member of the democrat party I think.  To say the country is 50/50 I think would be wrong, many will change vote to the other party if that candidate is able to support their jobs, livelihood, town or sector of the economy in a way that is valid and not currently supported.  My only point about Trump is he had his chance, do we really think he garners greater support in a future election.  The high tide mark is set, I dont see that as likely to be exceeded.

I don't think that Trump was ever associated with the Democrat party. He was a member of the Libertarian party in the past (if I am not wrong) and he shifted his loyalties to the GOP just before the 2016-elections, because the US is having a 2 party system. But all that said, Trump lost the elections once and I don't think that it will be a good move from the GOP to re-nominate someone who was rejected by the voters once (and that too by a huge margin). Personally I would love to see Kamala vs DeSantis in 2024. That's going to be much more exciting than Biden vs Trump (2.0).

[SirLancelot]

Fair enough. Yet we, bettors, can take all those things into account, and make our bets today. Early bets are good because of the odds, in the first place. When one of the main contenders is in jail and another is out for some reason, and the third decides to not run for president at all, you won't get as good as 51.00 for someone like Mike Pence, for example.

A good choice, but seeing the situation with Trump (who is obviously very popular among ordinary people and has the best chances among Republicans), I do not believe that the Democrats will give up power. Biden's victory was very doubtful and it seems to me that if the "fair" results of the next election are not in favor of the Democrats, then we will see something similar again (like a huge percentage of votes in favor of a certain candidate using mail-in voting).
In general, it is better to refrain from betting on manipulated events.

Manipulation is possible in all games but I think it's more prone here in politics because there is much money flowing in here. Each candidate is very eager to win some spots as it gives them power. Losing the bet because of manipulation is pretty annoying so it would be better to just avoid them unless if you have insider information and you are sure that the candidate that you will pick is going to win.

Being popular in the public can give a candidate an edge but I think people who place their votes should not only based on it but they must also based on what is the contribution of that candidate and research further if that candidate is not corrupt.

[Hispo]

Well, guys. It seems that the run of De Santis is already losing steam against Trump and he is yet to announce he is officially running for the position.

I have seen some videos on Youtube suggesting that the gap in the polls between the two politicians is opening wide in favor of Trump. If this continues to be the case, we could see a scenario where he decides not to run for office and remain as a governor instead. This is one example of those articles, pointing out the position of De Santis these days.

I am expecting the gap to grow more even if Trump ends up getting charged in the state of New York.

As for Mike Pence, he would not be even running, as he stands no chance in this race.

Fox poll shows Trump’s lead over DeSantis growing

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/29/fox-poll-trump-desantis-00089593

A new Fox News poll released Wednesday showed former President Donald Trump widening his lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical GOP primary race.

Trump was the top pick for 54 percent of respondents, who were asked to choose from a list of potential 2024 Republican presidential nominees. DeSantis — who has yet to declare his candidacy, though he is widely expected to — came in as a distant second pick, with 24 percent of the vote. It’s a slight drop in support for the Florida governor, who nabbed 28 percent to Trump’s 43 percent in a Fox poll conducted late last month.

The month-to-month gain for Trump comes at a time when some Republicans fear support for Trump’s expected leading challenger is faltering.

If the Republicans want to win the next presidential election on 2024, they will have no other choice and nominate Trump as their candidate. I am quite certain that after 4 years of Biden's administration, more people would be voting anyone but whoever the Democrates nominate as their next candidate. Kamala Harris or Michelle Obama? Both of them would not have a chance to win in a presidential debate against Trump. This is the reason why the Democrats are using everything in their power to put him in prison hehehe.

Also, Trump has not yet announced that he is officially running? There were articles saying that he did, if I am not mistaken

Trump is officially running, actually, he was the first candidate to formally do so. I meant that there has not been anyone from the democrat party willing to challenge Joe Biden, which I do not like.

Republicans of course want to win the next election, but if they wanted they could have dished Trump long ago if they wanted, they are just afraid of the charisma Trump has and the way he managed to cast a spell over the base. Do you remember the mob breaking into the Capitol 2 years ago, even the most pro-Trump republicans denounced it as unacceptable and called out Trump and his supporters, nowadays those same people do not want to talk about what happened or what they said, to avoid making Trump angry at them.

[STT]

A common enemy unites, its possible all these legal machinations are helping to bring more support then they deter.  I dont think Trump gets the swing voters especially but for people who already vote Republican the fact that they can see the prosecution as political and in opposition actually could reduce apprehension about voting for Trump again.  So not too surprised about the swing back away from De Santis though it was always up to him to gain a larger argument and genuine support from all sides.  He has no chance otherwise.

[nullama]

A common enemy unites, its possible all these legal machinations are helping to bring more support then they deter.  I dont think Trump gets the swing voters especially but for people who already vote Republican the fact that they can see the prosecution as political and in opposition actually could reduce apprehension about voting for Trump again.  So not too surprised about the swing back away from De Santis though it was always up to him to gain a larger argument and genuine support from all sides.  He has no chance otherwise.

I find it interesting that all over the world we hear more about Trump than the actual current US president.

I think Trump is doing his campaign this way actually, no publicity is bad publicity.

[Sithara007]

I find it interesting that all over the world we hear more about Trump than the actual current US president.

I think Trump is doing his campaign this way actually, no publicity is bad publicity.

I am not sure whether all this is going to work. Trump has gained a lot of bad publicity for sure. But in the end, a majority of the people think that he is the one who should be blamed. There is hardly any sympathy for him. And although Biden has announced his intention to run for the 2024 elections, I don't think that it will ever happen. His health is in a very poor state and in all probability Kamala or someone else from the left-wing spectrum will be the Democrat nominee for 2024. So in this way, the lack of publicity is not going to harm Biden in a big way.

[bbc.reporter]

A common enemy unites, its possible all these legal machinations are helping to bring more support then they deter.  I dont think Trump gets the swing voters especially but for people who already vote Republican the fact that they can see the prosecution as political and in opposition actually could reduce apprehension about voting for Trump again.  So not too surprised about the swing back away from De Santis though it was always up to him to gain a larger argument and genuine support from all sides.  He has no chance otherwise.

I find it interesting that all over the world we hear more about Trump than the actual current US president.

I think Trump is doing his campaign this way actually, no publicity is bad publicity.

Agreed hehe. These continuous attacks being done against him from the Democrats are causing him to become something similar to a martyr.

A good storyline can be created for Trump based on what the senior Democrats have done in the past. They are charging Trump with misdemeanors as felonies, however, Bill Clinton's lying under oath and Hilary Clinton's obstruction of justice when she deleted emails from her server brought no charges. This is very head shaking but the people have become more aware of this.