Showdown: Trump Vs Haley. Bitcoin betting on the 2024 US Presidential Election

[Sithara007]

I think most of the latest elections have been like that in a way.

Basically people voting for "the other" candidate because they simply dislike the alternative, instead of voting for specific people.

It's a divided country, and every year it gets more and more polarized. I hope they can see some sense from the other side because at the end of the day there are more similarities than differences.

There is no doubt that the American society is extremely polarized at this point. And if the candidates are from the two opposite poles of the political spectrum, then it will polarize the voters even further. Trump, without any doubt is considered to be many as far-right. Biden was considered as a moderate (or centrist) back in 2020, but now his reputation has changed as a result of policies related to immigration and climate change. So once again in 2024, it is going to be a deeply divided society voting for its president, and the loser is not going to accept the defeat.

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[bittraffic]

Candidates does have different priorities to promote to the public. Biden is totally different from Trump. While Trump wants to build walls down the borders, Biden keeps it open and welcome people from there and give rewards.

Both have supporters, divided. If Biden lost supporters for opening borders, he definitely got support from those guya who just crossed. It may not just lies to how many millions of them.

[Gyfts]

Trump indicted federally: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-twice-impeached-trump-now-faces-his-second-criminal-indictment-as-he-looks-to-recapture-white-house/ar-AA1cjDKQ

The aggregate betting market data isn't yet available, so it isn't clear how people will factor this news into their predictions.

Looking back to April, Trump's indictment in New York actually helped him a bit and he had a slight bump in his odds at winning the Presidency: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/

I fail how to see how any of these indictments are anything but a liability for Trump in a general. Rather surprised the odds shifted marginally in Trump's favor momentarily after his NY indictment. Trial dates will bet set up in 2024, the Biden administration knows what it's doing. If Trump wins the Republican nomination and then goes to trial post primaries and gets a convicted, it will automatically guarantee a Biden win in November.

Seems to be me anyone betting on Trump is betting on a liability.

[flipme]

The world has always gone through chaotic periods and there are some chaotic situations today, but I think we are in a quiet period in general. We are also gradually reducing the negative effects of the pandemic period. I think everything is a little better than a few years ago. Therefore, maybe the democrats can continue to win. With his polarizing language, Trump still manages to get a good percentage of votes, but I don't think he can win the elections. My guess is that the democrats will win the elections again. However, Biden seems to have health problems. If there is another candidate to replace Biden, I think it would be a more comfortable choice for the Democrats.

[Hispo]

Now that Trump is getting officially indicted on federal charges in relation to his withholding of sensitive and classified material, I can easily see how he will try to capitalize this attention to play the victim and increase his advantage over DE Santis and other irrelevant Republican candidates.

If this continues to happen, Trump almost has the Republican nomination in the bag and he would likely face Joe Biden again. It is going to be a very close race between Biden and Trump, unless something unexpected happened, like suddenly De Santis becoming more charismatic and likeable or Tucker Carlson announcing his run for the presidency under the promise of pardoning all of the people allegedly prosecuted in a unfair way by the Biden administration, including Trump and those arrested due to participation in Jan 6th.

Next year is going to be the craziest.

[wiss19]

The 2024 POTUS elections are going to be really interesting. Voters from both sides of the political spectrum are going to vote for a candidate not because they like them, but because they dislike the other candidate more. And regarding the charges that Trump is facing, I am not very sure. If someone from the Democrat party was in his place, then in all probability there will be no charges at all. Bill Clinton sexually abused several women while being the POTUS, and yet he never spent a single day behind bars. There seems to be different set of rules for different people within the United States.

The topic of Clinton has been given by republicans a lot as an example but there is absolutely no correlation at all, it can't be further from the truth all this much and they have absolutely zero connection. What happened was, what Bill Clinton did was consenting two adults, he did what he did and she did what she did and they were both agreeing to the situation and they didn't end up with any assault charges at all, for it to be assault you need one of them to say it was assault, and yet both were consenting to the situation. Unlike Trump that just "grabs them by the ..." which IS sexual assault.

On the other hand, one of the main reasons why Trump is getting prosecuted is because he used campaign funds to silence a porn star about their sex, it is not sexual assault case, nobody says why he had sex with a porn star, he can, he is allowed to if he wants to, it's him using the campaign funds to do it, which is the main problem. So what Clinton had and Trump had are totally different cases. At the same time, Clinton wasn't even impeached because he had relations, he was impeached because he lied about it.

[Betwrong]

But from what I see, gamblers give DeSantis less chance than a week ago



Actually, the chances of all of them above have dropped a little bit since a week ago. Do people think that someone else apart from the trio will have more chances eventually?

I am not surprised. Ron DeSantis is unable to gain any momentum so far in the race. Even the launch of his campaign in Twitter got botched up (due to some technical issues from the part of Twitter). His numbers are more or less the same before and after the announcement. In short, he didn't got any boost after he launched his campaign. It was expected that he will be able to rally the anti-Trump faction within the GOP. But that hasn't happened. That faction is still split, with Haley, Scott, Ramaswamy and Pence still polling numbers that are not too insignificant.

Ron DeSantis is still referring to the Ukraine-Russia war as a "territorial dispute". That's one big mistake of his that I can see, but it's very likely that there are more. American people support Ukraine in their majority, and they want Ukraine to succeed in its war against Russia, meaning, taking its territories back. Nikki Haley, a member of the Republican Party, criticizing DeSantis for his stance on the matter, may start getting more sympathy from Republicans in the future, so I place a small bet on her while the odds are still pretty good

[dezoel]

I have a theory and maybe some of you would agree with me, seeing the posts here I am sure that there are a lot of people who would. I think it is quite clear that we are not going to see a big change and it will be close. Well, I believe that if you make me the candidate from one of the parties and you (whoever reading this at this moment) the candidate for the other party, we would be still pretty close, like we don't even need to do campaign. Hell we could do just a piece of paper for both, doesn't even need to be human.

Just a blank piece of paper, or just colored for the color of the party. It is not even about the candidates anymore, it just doesn't feel like it is about the candidates, it is totally different from that level at this point, it is going to be close no matter who is the candidate.

[nullama]

~snip~
Ron DeSantis is still referring to the Ukraine-Russia war as a "territorial dispute". That's one big mistake of his that I can see, but it's very likely that there are more. American people support Ukraine in their majority, and they want Ukraine to succeed in its war against Russia, meaning, taking its territories back. Nikki Haley, a member of the Republican Party, criticizing DeSantis for his stance on the matter, may start getting more sympathy from Republicans in the future, so I place a small bet on her while the odds are still pretty good

So how is it going to be?, are they going to have a pre-election for Trump vs De Santis?, or are they going to run both for president at the same time against Biden?

Are they both representing the republican candidate?

[LUCKMCFLY]

But from what I see, gamblers give DeSantis less chance than a week ago



Actually, the chances of all of them above have dropped a little bit since a week ago. Do people think that someone else apart from the trio will have more chances eventually?

I am not surprised. Ron DeSantis is unable to gain any momentum so far in the race. Even the launch of his campaign in Twitter got botched up (due to some technical issues from the part of Twitter). His numbers are more or less the same before and after the announcement. In short, he didn't got any boost after he launched his campaign. It was expected that he will be able to rally the anti-Trump faction within the GOP. But that hasn't happened. That faction is still split, with Haley, Scott, Ramaswamy and Pence still polling numbers that are not too insignificant.

Ron DeSantis is still referring to the Ukraine-Russia war as a "territorial dispute". That's one big mistake of his that I can see, but it's very likely that there are more. American people support Ukraine in their majority, and they want Ukraine to succeed in its war against Russia, meaning, taking its territories back. Nikki Haley, a member of the Republican Party, criticizing DeSantis for his stance on the matter, may start getting more sympathy from Republicans in the future, so I place a small bet on her while the odds are still pretty good

This is interesting, here I would like to see if everything that is also being implemented against Trump with the incredible attack that they have on him, when it is not the women who attack him suing him for harassment, then it is the same government that wants to disqualify him, the the war between Ukraine and Russia, it is well known that it is convenience, there are many things there, and they must have their interests very well guarded in the USA, that is why a government as radical as Trump's can make a difference, I see that it also There are many levels of inflation in the USA , and that is something that Biden has not been able to control, it is worrying, not because of politics, politicians are always saved from everything, they do not experience inflation, it is the people.

[wheelz1200]

But from what I see, gamblers give DeSantis less chance than a week ago



Actually, the chances of all of them above have dropped a little bit since a week ago. Do people think that someone else apart from the trio will have more chances eventually?

I am not surprised. Ron DeSantis is unable to gain any momentum so far in the race. Even the launch of his campaign in Twitter got botched up (due to some technical issues from the part of Twitter). His numbers are more or less the same before and after the announcement. In short, he didn't got any boost after he launched his campaign. It was expected that he will be able to rally the anti-Trump faction within the GOP. But that hasn't happened. That faction is still split, with Haley, Scott, Ramaswamy and Pence still polling numbers that are not too insignificant.

Ron DeSantis is still referring to the Ukraine-Russia war as a "territorial dispute". That's one big mistake of his that I can see, but it's very likely that there are more. American people support Ukraine in their majority, and they want Ukraine to succeed in its war against Russia, meaning, taking its territories back. Nikki Haley, a member of the Republican Party, criticizing DeSantis for his stance on the matter, may start getting more sympathy from Republicans in the future, so I place a small bet on her while the odds are still pretty good

She has a strong foreign policy history as well.  The country could steer itself into getting a women in charge as well as most want to see change and there is yet another drastic change to see if it will change things.  Not a bad bet right now her name will definitely heat up as this gets going.

[Hispo]

But from what I see, gamblers give DeSantis less chance than a week ago



Actually, the chances of all of them above have dropped a little bit since a week ago. Do people think that someone else apart from the trio will have more chances eventually?

I am not surprised. Ron DeSantis is unable to gain any momentum so far in the race. Even the launch of his campaign in Twitter got botched up (due to some technical issues from the part of Twitter). His numbers are more or less the same before and after the announcement. In short, he didn't got any boost after he launched his campaign. It was expected that he will be able to rally the anti-Trump faction within the GOP. But that hasn't happened. That faction is still split, with Haley, Scott, Ramaswamy and Pence still polling numbers that are not too insignificant.

Ron DeSantis is still referring to the Ukraine-Russia war as a "territorial dispute". That's one big mistake of his that I can see, but it's very likely that there are more. American people support Ukraine in their majority, and they want Ukraine to succeed in its war against Russia, meaning, taking its territories back. Nikki Haley, a member of the Republican Party, criticizing DeSantis for his stance on the matter, may start getting more sympathy from Republicans in the future, so I place a small bet on her while the odds are still pretty good

Sadly, Nikki does not stand much of a chance to win the nomination, though. Even if she had the support of the party and more ideas which the common people could identify with, it is a long standing tradition for the President of the United States to be a man. The closest that country went to get a woman as president as Hillary and she had much more in her favor. She had the support of the base, the support of the party and ideas which many people agreed on.

The Republican party is likely to continue the tradition of only men within the White House, just by inertia and the traditionalism which is a key piece of the conservatism ideology of part of the Republican base.  Still, I do not doubt there will be someone who will bet on her favor, just for fun and the sake of it.

[o48o]

-cut-
 or Tucker Carlson announcing his run for the presidency under the promise of pardoning all of the people allegedly prosecuted in a unfair way by the Biden administration, including Trump and those arrested due to participation in Jan 6th.
-cut-

Right, guy is a proven liar and have been two facing Trump. There's no way that people see him as more charismatic than any existing candinate. I mean the guy always looks annoyed like he sat on a pole or something. There's no way people would believe him or like him, his main think is to worry and mock others. Trump at least smiles while he does that.

At the start DeSantis looked like a winning candidate but he sure has a way to distant himself from the public.
I might be biased as my politics are total opposite of him, but the side of me who wants to make money via betting on this doesn't believe him winning either.

[Sithara007]

~~~
At the start DeSantis looked like a winning candidate but he sure has a way to distant himself from the public.
I might be biased as my politics are total opposite of him, but the side of me who wants to make money via betting on this doesn't believe him winning either.

Even I thought that Ron DeSantis had a good chance of winning the GOP nomination in 2024. But he floundered his chances. He couldn't garner courage to attack Trump, and then he delayed announcing his candidature for too long. And when finally he announced his candidacy, it got botched up due to some technical issues in Twitter. Also, momentum swung in favor of Trump due to the ongoing criminal proceedings. DeSantis's candidacy was dead even before it was launched. Unless there is going to be some miracle in the next few months, I would advise him to drop out of the race.

[nullama]

~snip~
Even I thought that Ron DeSantis had a good chance of winning the GOP nomination in 2024. But he floundered his chances. He couldn't garner courage to attack Trump, and then he delayed announcing his candidature for too long. And when finally he announced his candidacy, it got botched up due to some technical issues in Twitter. Also, momentum swung in favor of Trump due to the ongoing criminal proceedings. DeSantis's candidacy was dead even before it was launched. Unless there is going to be some miracle in the next few months, I would advise him to drop out of the race.

I've seen quite a few photos of DeSantis flags next to literal nazi flags, I'm not sure why they're becoming so popular in the US, but if anything, it's not a sign of a peaceful time to come next year.

[TwitchySeal]

I've seen quite a few photos of DeSantis flags next to literal nazi flags, I'm not sure why they're becoming so popular in the US

I imagine the whole "anti-woke, anti diversity, racists aren't a real problem, it's the people calling out racists that are the problem" platform is very attractive to Nazis. 

[electronicash]

~snip~
Even I thought that Ron DeSantis had a good chance of winning the GOP nomination in 2024. But he floundered his chances. He couldn't garner courage to attack Trump, and then he delayed announcing his candidature for too long. And when finally he announced his candidacy, it got botched up due to some technical issues in Twitter. Also, momentum swung in favor of Trump due to the ongoing criminal proceedings. DeSantis's candidacy was dead even before it was launched. Unless there is going to be some miracle in the next few months, I would advise him to drop out of the race.

I've seen quite a few photos of DeSantis flags next to literal nazi flags, I'm not sure why they're becoming so popular in the US, but if anything, it's not a sign of a peaceful time to come next year.

isn't Trump still GOP so the reason why DeSantis not attacking Trump as he is also Republican right?

in the latest CBS poll, Trump has 61% while Desantis got 23%. the indictment of Trump isn't dragging his rating down for the people know its all political. seem like they can't fool the public anymore with all these diversions. the more they do it. the more Trump will prevail.

[o48o]

isn't Trump still GOP so the reason why DeSantis not attacking Trump as he is also Republican right?

in the latest CBS poll, Trump has 61% while Desantis got 23%. the indictment of Trump isn't dragging his rating down for the people know its all political. seem like they can't fool the public anymore with all these diversions. the more they do it. the more Trump will prevail.

It isn't really matter of public what they think, even if he would be guilty in one of the 37 felony counts Trump got would technically get jail time. I am not certain if he would do the time in reality, but if he is, he is going to have to campaign from prison. These are federal charges and seriousness of these charges are totally on a different level then other charges trump has faced.

No lawyer even wants to represent him as they know it's not a winning case, but total nightmare. I would say that it would be easy money to bet on democrats if republicans can't get their act together.

[STT]

We're seeing the ultimate test of any publicity is good publicity.   Thats supposed to be about showbiz mostly not so much 'serious' politics but is there a discernable difference at this point ?
  Will Trump gain or lose more votes by this trial is a serious question, Im biased towards thinking he must lose most of his votes from the 2016 winning run because quite a few of those votes were from the central body of political opinion.   Trump may have increased his core voters or right wing support some but he will have lost more the central section that is vital in quite a few states.  
  Today Im moving towards more wanting to lay the Trump bets then bet it myself personally.

[Hispo]

We're seeing the ultimate test of any publicity is good publicity.   Thats supposed to be about showbiz mostly not so much 'serious' politics but is there a discernable difference at this point ?
  Will Trump gain or lose more votes by this trial is a serious question, Im biased towards thinking he must lose most of his votes from the 2016 winning run because quite a few of those votes were from the central body of political opinion.   Trump may have increased his core voters or right wing support some but he will have lost more the central section that is vital in quite a few states.  
  Today Im moving towards more wanting to lay the Trump bets then bet it myself personally.

I'd wish I could agree with you, it is true that Trump have turned away the support of the moderate wing of the Republican party, but he has also made the support of the rest of the base stronger as time passes by. For him, these indictments are just more fuel for his narrative of political prosecution and the base is willing to go for it.

I am afraid the United States has long ago abandoned the territory of normal or orthodox politics, the kind of populism Trump is using in his favor reminds to what one could expect from the so called banana republics . The reason does not matter anymore, nor does the consistency. He was against an increase in the debt ceiling when he was asked why it was done quickly when he was in the White House, he replied "I was the president".

There is no need to hide the hypocrisy anymore, now it has become part of "normal" politics.