Showdown: Trump Vs Haley. Bitcoin betting on the 2024 US Presidential Election

[Gyfts]

Let's not forget, guys, that we are talking about bets here, it's not the Politics&Society section, is it?

I personally don't like Trump and a big part of the GOP, but I would place ten bucks on Trump with the current odds



if I was sure he wins the election. But actually I won't bet a cent on him, because he's not gonna win. Not in this universe, anyway.

I'd be interested in taking the odds historical charts and comparing them to the press releases of how much money each candidate raised every cycle. Right now those odds seem agreeable, DeSantis not being the longshot candidate and far from favored.

Comparable to the 2020 election -- incumbent Trump was always up in the markets for the majority of the election cycle. And we see how well that went: https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insight/specials/politics/20200624-2020-us-presidential-election-odds-and-betting

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[Sandra_hakeem]

Trump doesn't still wanna quit?? He's got a dream whose reality is statued in ambivalence.... honestly.
Sometimes, things aren't meant to even workout as planned... If they had really wanted him back, then they would have voted him into power instead of Biden. It's usually funny that the people make lame choices and end up complaining that the govt ain't working in Thier favour... "We all know the devil cannot change right?? So what's the point of preaching to him?? Lmao
Ron has got a upper hand since he's the newest contestants and I personally think he stands a better chance too. It's left for everyone to exercise Thier franchise peacefully while they also grab some few bucks should Thier predictions cut.

Sandra 🧑‍🦰

[Wakate]

Let's not forget, guys, that we are talking about bets here, it's not the Politics&Society section, is it?

I personally don't like Trump and a big part of the GOP, but I would place ten bucks on Trump with the current odds



if I was sure he wins the election. But actually I won't bet a cent on him, because he's not gonna win. Not in this universe, anyway.

I'd be interested in taking the odds historical charts and comparing them to the press releases of how much money each candidate raised every cycle. Right now those odds seem agreeable, DeSantis not being the longshot candidate and far from favored.

Comparable to the 2020 election -- incumbent Trump was always up in the markets for the majority of the election cycle. And we see how well that went: https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insight/specials/politics/20200624-2020-us-presidential-election-odds-and-betting

Going through historical charts could also help us to make a better decision since we can make accurate prediction through that depending on what the over all outcome would be. Next year American presidential election is going to be competitive because Donald Trump is coming back to contest and I know a lot of people would have missed him and his policies to make America great again. There are also other contestants too that will be trying there luck this time to make things work for themselves making the election to be more of a competition.

[Hispo]

Trump doesn't still wanna quit?? He's got a dream whose reality is statued in ambivalence.... honestly.
Sometimes, things aren't meant to even workout as planned... If they had really wanted him back, then they would have voted him into power instead of Biden. It's usually funny that the people make lame choices and end up complaining that the govt ain't working in Thier favour... "We all know the devil cannot change right?? So what's the point of preaching to him?? Lmao
Ron has got a upper hand since he's the newest contestants and I personally think he stands a better chance too. It's left for everyone to exercise Thier franchise peacefully while they also grab some few bucks should Thier predictions cut.

Sandra 🧑‍🦰

I think you may be overestimating the chances of Ron De Santis of actually getting to the White House.
Let us be honest: he is certainly afraid of Trump and the way he has more charisma than he does, not even mentioning the huge amount of material Trump has to attack De Santis.

Have you taken a look at the advertisement of Ron teaching his baby son about Donald Trump (from the time of his FL candidacy) ? It is just cringe...
At this point, whether we like it or not, we may be dealing with a political cult which is willing to vote for their leader even he is in jail.

[Sithara007]

I think you may be overestimating the chances of Ron De Santis of actually getting to the White House.
Let us be honest: he is certainly afraid of Trump and the way he has more charisma than he does, not even mentioning the huge amount of material Trump has to attack De Santis.

Have you taken a look at the advertisement of Ron teaching his baby son about Donald Trump (from the time of his FL candidacy) ? It is just cringe...
At this point, whether we like it or not, we may be dealing with a political cult which is willing to vote for their leader even he is in jail.

Well.. I think Ron DeSantis is actually aiming for the VP post. But the problem is that Trump doesn't trust this guy and doesn't need him as well. Ron doesn't bring any additional votes to Trump. The best thing for DeSantis to do would be to do his campaigning without much noise and try to unite all the anti-Trump factions within the GOP. In the end, both the sides will be forced to make a compromise (and it will be easy in case Trump is behind bars). LOL.. the 2024 is also turning out to be similar to 2022 midterms. GOP started with a lot of expectations, but in the end they lost their momentum as a result of infighting and poor candidate selection.

[Hispo]

I think you may be overestimating the chances of Ron De Santis of actually getting to the White House.
Let us be honest: he is certainly afraid of Trump and the way he has more charisma than he does, not even mentioning the huge amount of material Trump has to attack De Santis.

Have you taken a look at the advertisement of Ron teaching his baby son about Donald Trump (from the time of his FL candidacy) ? It is just cringe...
At this point, whether we like it or not, we may be dealing with a political cult which is willing to vote for their leader even he is in jail.

Well.. I think Ron DeSantis is actually aiming for the VP post. But the problem is that Trump doesn't trust this guy and doesn't need him as well. Ron doesn't bring any additional votes to Trump. The best thing for DeSantis to do would be to do his campaigning without much noise and try to unite all the anti-Trump factions within the GOP. In the end, both the sides will be forced to make a compromise (and it will be easy in case Trump is behind bars). LOL.. the 2024 is also turning out to be similar to 2022 midterms. GOP started with a lot of expectations, but in the end they lost their momentum as a result of infighting and poor candidate selection.

I do not think that Ron is actually going for the position of Vice President, does not make sense. Because if he wanted to go for it, he would have not announced for the presidencial run, but rather he should have gone with a low profile and try to talk to Trump under the table and away from the eye of the public, so he could convince him of his utility to him and his own presidencial aspirations.

As soon as Ron did not make clear he did not want to be president he completely severed all chances he has to ally with Trump as VP.

[Sithara007]

I do not think that Ron is actually going for the position of Vice President, does not make sense. Because if he wanted to go for it, he would have not announced for the presidencial run, but rather he should have gone with a low profile and try to talk to Trump under the table and away from the eye of the public, so he could convince him of his utility to him and his own presidencial aspirations.

As soon as Ron did not make clear he did not want to be president he completely severed all chances he has to ally with Trump as VP.

Yeah.. makes sense. Right now DeSantis is termed as one of the arch-enemies of Donald Trump, and there isn't much chance that he will be named as the VP candidate. But then, Trump needs someone who can attract the moderate vote, especially from the suburbs and the rust belt. Mike Pence is as lunatic as Trump and is incapable of doing this. I would be really surprised if Trump retains Pence as the VP nominee. Anyway, the next few weeks of polling will show whether DeSantis can stay competent in the race or not. If he remains at 15%-25%, then no one will take him seriously.

[slapper]

Trump doesn't still wanna quit?? He's got a dream whose reality is statued in ambivalence.... honestly.
Sometimes, things aren't meant to even workout as planned... If they had really wanted him back, then they would have voted him into power instead of Biden. It's usually funny that the people make lame choices and end up complaining that the govt ain't working in Thier favour... "We all know the devil cannot change right?? So what's the point of preaching to him?? Lmao
Ron has got a upper hand since he's the newest contestants and I personally think he stands a better chance too. It's left for everyone to exercise Thier franchise peacefully while they also grab some few bucks should Thier predictions cut.

Sandra 🧑‍🦰

I think you may be overestimating the chances of Ron De Santis of actually getting to the White House.
Let us be honest: he is certainly afraid of Trump and the way he has more charisma than he does, not even mentioning the huge amount of material Trump has to attack De Santis.

Have you taken a look at the advertisement of Ron teaching his baby son about Donald Trump (from the time of his FL candidacy) ? It is just cringe...
At this point, whether we like it or not, we may be dealing with a political cult which is willing to vote for their leader even he is in jail.

It's a trip, ain't it, watching De Santis doing the political cha-cha with The Trumpster? The man's walking on eggshells around Trump's yuge persona, instead of going in all guns blazing. Have you seen that ad? His kiddo and Trump in the spotlight, ain't that a billboard of his jitters about out-Trumping Trump himself?

Perhaps he should've slid under the radar, kept his POTUS dreams on the down-low, and slid into Trump's DMs for a friendly chat. Announcing his run for the big office could be a real buzzkill for his VP dreams with Trump. Looks like De Santis has yeeted his whole hand of cards onto the table a bit too early. Thoughts?

[Doan9269]

Let's not forget, guys, that we are talking about bets here, it's not the Politics&Society section, is it?

I personally don't like Trump and a big part of the GOP, but I would place ten bucks on Trump with the current odds



if I was sure he wins the election. But actually I won't bet a cent on him, because he's not gonna win. Not in this universe, anyway.

I'd be interested in taking the odds historical charts and comparing them to the press releases of how much money each candidate raised every cycle. Right now those odds seem agreeable, DeSantis not being the longshot candidate and far from favored.

Comparable to the 2020 election -- incumbent Trump was always up in the markets for the majority of the election cycle. And we see how well that went: https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insight/specials/politics/20200624-2020-us-presidential-election-odds-and-betting

Literally if you look at the odds placed on each candidate, the higher the odds the lower the chances of winning for the candidate, but i still wonder why Donald Trump's is more optimistic about winning this time if he had made the very first slerk in the opportunity he had to win over Biden during his administration, i want to believe also that Biden cannot afford to let that same mistake got over him, i also believe the power of incubency to help Biden along the race only if he did not relent just the way Donald Trump did during his tenure.

[Hispo]

Trump doesn't still wanna quit?? He's got a dream whose reality is statued in ambivalence.... honestly.
Sometimes, things aren't meant to even workout as planned... If they had really wanted him back, then they would have voted him into power instead of Biden. It's usually funny that the people make lame choices and end up complaining that the govt ain't working in Thier favour... "We all know the devil cannot change right?? So what's the point of preaching to him?? Lmao
Ron has got a upper hand since he's the newest contestants and I personally think he stands a better chance too. It's left for everyone to exercise Thier franchise peacefully while they also grab some few bucks should Thier predictions cut.

Sandra 🧑‍🦰

I think you may be overestimating the chances of Ron De Santis of actually getting to the White House.
Let us be honest: he is certainly afraid of Trump and the way he has more charisma than he does, not even mentioning the huge amount of material Trump has to attack De Santis.

Have you taken a look at the advertisement of Ron teaching his baby son about Donald Trump (from the time of his FL candidacy) ? It is just cringe...
At this point, whether we like it or not, we may be dealing with a political cult which is willing to vote for their leader even he is in jail.

It's a trip, ain't it, watching De Santis doing the political cha-cha with The Trumpster? The man's walking on eggshells around Trump's yuge persona, instead of going in all guns blazing. Have you seen that ad? His kiddo and Trump in the spotlight, ain't that a billboard of his jitters about out-Trumping Trump himself?

Perhaps he should've slid under the radar, kept his POTUS dreams on the down-low, and slid into Trump's DMs for a friendly chat. Announcing his run for the big office could be a real buzzkill for his VP dreams with Trump. Looks like De Santis has yeeted his whole hand of cards onto the table a bit too early. Thoughts?

I agree with you, I have got the impression he has little or nothing left to show which could impress the average Republican voter, all he has shown has been the so called culture wars and in the end, those kinds of news do not go along with the economics, the security and other factors which could be affecting the life quality of the average american citizen.

De Santis, if he plans to stay in this race he will have to frontally attack Trump sooner or later and he seems not to be ready to do so, perhaps he should have talked to Trump so he could have run as his VP and then once Trump is officially gone, he could have run as President on the next election, however that may mean he would need to face other very tough people like Tucker Carlson and company.

[Betwrong]

~
The odds have changed drastically over the past few months. A couple of months back, Trump was having much more favorable odds when compared to Biden. But now he seems to have fallen behind. This has to do something with Ron DeSantis announcing his candidacy last week. None of the opinion polls are having DeSantis with more than 20% of the support for GOP primaries. But the sportsbooks maybe assuming that he will be able to consolidate the anti-Trump section within the GOP in the coming months. And at the same time, Biden doesn't face any challenge within the Democrat Party.

But from what I see, gamblers give DeSantis less chance than a week ago



Actually, the chances of all of them above have dropped a little bit since a week ago. Do people think that someone else apart from the trio will have more chances eventually?

Let's not forget, guys, that we are talking about bets here, it's not the Politics&Society section, is it?

I personally don't like Trump and a big part of the GOP, but I would place ten bucks on Trump with the current odds



if I was sure he wins the election. But actually I won't bet a cent on him, because he's not gonna win. Not in this universe, anyway.

Well, it's a bit both isn't it? I mean it's a betting topic, but also the betting is about politics, which means that anything any politician does impacts the odds as well. ~

You know, I agree with you. I don't want to be the guy shouting "Digression!". No. Sometimes, what seems like a digression is actually relevant. Let's not just go purely political here, that's what I mean.

[Sithara007]

But from what I see, gamblers give DeSantis less chance than a week ago



Actually, the chances of all of them above have dropped a little bit since a week ago. Do people think that someone else apart from the trio will have more chances eventually?

I am not surprised. Ron DeSantis is unable to gain any momentum so far in the race. Even the launch of his campaign in Twitter got botched up (due to some technical issues from the part of Twitter). His numbers are more or less the same before and after the announcement. In short, he didn't got any boost after he launched his campaign. It was expected that he will be able to rally the anti-Trump faction within the GOP. But that hasn't happened. That faction is still split, with Haley, Scott, Ramaswamy and Pence still polling numbers that are not too insignificant.

[FanEagle]

The fact that Biden is increasing his odds even after the "fall" is something good looking for him. It is once again clear to me that Americans do not care if Biden is too unfit to be a president, they rather see a bucket of ice there instead of Trump, that's what we are facing right now.

As someone who is not American I can't really say what they are thinking as a whole, and to be fair looking at the polls and how they have been wrong before I bet that they can't really say that neither, it looks like they are mostly wrong themselves as well. I believe that it is not going to be easy to bet on this, I feel like the odds are one thing but we have seen odds be a bit different at the same time but I think it is quite important to see something changing, we need different actors for sure.

[Hispo]

The fact that Biden is increasing his odds even after the "fall" is something good looking for him. It is once again clear to me that Americans do not care if Biden is too unfit to be a president, they rather see a bucket of ice there instead of Trump, that's what we are facing right now.

As someone who is not American I can't really say what they are thinking as a whole, and to be fair looking at the polls and how they have been wrong before I bet that they can't really say that neither, it looks like they are mostly wrong themselves as well. I believe that it is not going to be easy to bet on this, I feel like the odds are one thing but we have seen odds be a bit different at the same time but I think it is quite important to see something changing, we need different actors for sure.

I would not directly associate the increase or decrease of the odds of some candidate with their actual chances to win the presidential run. I would rather to take a look as the poll and do some investigation on the average feeling of the American citizen.

Besides the recent fall he suffered, his increase of odds may have something to do with the apparent second arrest Trump could be facing, in relation to the holding of classified documents he was not supposed to have.

There are already people suggesting he could still run from home arrest and actually pardon himself of any federal crimes he may alledgely committed. Crazy times we are seeing.

[Sithara007]

I would not directly associate the increase or decrease of the odds of some candidate with their actual chances to win the presidential run. I would rather to take a look as the poll and do some investigation on the average feeling of the American citizen.

Besides the recent fall he suffered, his increase of odds may have something to do with the apparent second arrest Trump could be facing, in relation to the holding of classified documents he was not supposed to have.

There are already people suggesting he could still run from home arrest and actually pardon himself of any federal crimes he may alledgely committed. Crazy times we are seeing.

The 2024 POTUS elections are going to be really interesting. Voters from both sides of the political spectrum are going to vote for a candidate not because they like them, but because they dislike the other candidate more. And regarding the charges that Trump is facing, I am not very sure. If someone from the Democrat party was in his place, then in all probability there will be no charges at all. Bill Clinton sexually abused several women while being the POTUS, and yet he never spent a single day behind bars. There seems to be different set of rules for different people within the United States.

[LUCKMCFLY]

That is correct. People tend to believe that the donors are those who decide who is going to be the Republican candidate, not anymore those days have finished from now since Donald Trump became a politician.

Even if De Santis starts to get more backing from donors, the donors cannot contest against the base, the Republican voters. They may not be rich or be huge contributors to the campaign but in the end, they matter.

What is the point of spending millions of dollars in a person lacking of charisma like Ron if someone like Trump can turn the tides with even less money thanks to his power over the voters. ? Eventually, if things go bad for De Santis, he will be also abandoned by those who give him the money.

Trump himself is a billionaire and can easily spend a few hundreds of millions from his own wealth (he already did that in 2016). And the donors will be cautious in giving their funds to DeSantis, because in case Trump wins the POTUS elections in 2024, then there will be repercussions. Also, for DeSantis the chances are not looking good. He is constantly polling somewhere between 15% and 25% for republican primaries, and Trump is at approx. 60%. Unless he can prove that he can give a good challenge to Trump, the donors will not take him seriously.

I am personally quite skeptical on the status of Trump as a billionaire, my reason is the fact he (for some reason) continues to brand his image in form of NFTs, personal meetings and souvenirs for the purpose of getting more money. He is either not an actual billionaire or just likes to get money out his political base.

Also, I agree on your points on DeSantis, some donors may have been waited for him to formally announce to see whether his polling improved in order to evaluate whether he was worth some support. Unfortunately for him, it seems that the announce did not help at all.

At this point I am almost certain I won't bet a penny in DeSantis favor.

From all here, something must be recognized, Trump is a person who has a high intellect, that is not to be discussed, it is known, and I think that many of us take it very much into consideration, but Trump is a figure that yes, he is a billionaire, he has multiple businesses, that he does not skimp on achieving what he proposes and that is something that we all know, what I really like about Trump is that he is not a politician, he is a businessman, he knows about management and he does not have a political thought that even It sounds harsh to me, all politicians have a rotten mind, on the other hand, a general doesn't see things like a politician, and besides , a country is for a manager, not a politician , don't you think?

[Hispo]

That is correct. People tend to believe that the donors are those who decide who is going to be the Republican candidate, not anymore those days have finished from now since Donald Trump became a politician.

Even if De Santis starts to get more backing from donors, the donors cannot contest against the base, the Republican voters. They may not be rich or be huge contributors to the campaign but in the end, they matter.

What is the point of spending millions of dollars in a person lacking of charisma like Ron if someone like Trump can turn the tides with even less money thanks to his power over the voters. ? Eventually, if things go bad for De Santis, he will be also abandoned by those who give him the money.

Trump himself is a billionaire and can easily spend a few hundreds of millions from his own wealth (he already did that in 2016). And the donors will be cautious in giving their funds to DeSantis, because in case Trump wins the POTUS elections in 2024, then there will be repercussions. Also, for DeSantis the chances are not looking good. He is constantly polling somewhere between 15% and 25% for republican primaries, and Trump is at approx. 60%. Unless he can prove that he can give a good challenge to Trump, the donors will not take him seriously.

I am personally quite skeptical on the status of Trump as a billionaire, my reason is the fact he (for some reason) continues to brand his image in form of NFTs, personal meetings and souvenirs for the purpose of getting more money. He is either not an actual billionaire or just likes to get money out his political base.

Also, I agree on your points on DeSantis, some donors may have been waited for him to formally announce to see whether his polling improved in order to evaluate whether he was worth some support. Unfortunately for him, it seems that the announce did not help at all.

At this point I am almost certain I won't bet a penny in DeSantis favor.

From all here, something must be recognized, Trump is a person who has a high intellect, that is not to be discussed, it is known, and I think that many of us take it very much into consideration, but Trump is a figure that yes, he is a billionaire, he has multiple businesses, that he does not skimp on achieving what he proposes and that is something that we all know, what I really like about Trump is that he is not a politician, he is a businessman, he knows about management and he does not have a political thought that even It sounds harsh to me, all politicians have a rotten mind, on the other hand, a general doesn't see things like a politician, and besides , a country is for a manager, not a politician , don't you think?

I have heard that reasoning before, here in Venezuela as well, that for a country to recover for any crisis, it does not need military in power or politicians hunger for power, but a businessman and manager. Someone who knows how to keep a business or enterprise afloat. After all, to some people a country is rather a big administration and business.

On Trump, I am not sure about his intellect, because he continues to talk more than he should, making his legal defense harder and a nightmare to his lawyers. Though, I cannot argue about the immense charisma and sense of money he has stockpiled since became a public figure. Let us see what happens.

[Sithara007]

I have heard that reasoning before, here in Venezuela as well, that for a country to recover for any crisis, it does not need military in power or politicians hunger for power, but a businessman and manager. Someone who knows how to keep a business or enterprise afloat. After all, to some people a country is rather a big administration and business.

On Trump, I am not sure about his intellect, because he continues to talk more than he should, making his legal defense harder and a nightmare to his lawyers. Though, I cannot argue about the immense charisma and sense of money he has stockpiled since became a public figure. Let us see what happens.

Trump's motormouth harms his own party more than anyone else. But he doesn't care much. GOP rank and file have by now resigned to the idea of having Trump as their presidential nominee in 2024, especially after the flopped campaign announcement from Ron DeSantis. Now the X factor is going to be the candidacy from Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. There is a real chance that he will run as an independent candidate. But if that happens, IMO his candidacy will have a negative impact on Donald Trump much more than Joe Biden. And a few days back he got the endorsement from Jack Dorsey.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Ron DeSantis to announce Presidential bid in Twitter space with Elon Musk, follow the link to the announcement: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1661498079386931206

Unique way to announce. Compare that to Trump's announcement: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hsVS8EVH1c

Usually announcements of any serious scale for Presidency come from a large rally, back dropped with the U.S. flags and large speech. DeSantis is the first to take it digital. Watch betting markets closely, the tone gets set from here once he officially announces.

On a side note, DeSantis has the financial backing of major Republican donors to take on Trump. His avenue to the nomination exists.

This is Elon playing around politics like his new toy besides crypto. And he had DeSantis supporting BTC too. Which this election is bringing crypto on the table for discussion which Trump may have no say. He is no fan of crypto.

Media was furious of DeSantis for using twitter instead of them. He definitely made some enemies already as much as Trump.  Tides may change and Ron rising above the rank may be a loss for Trump.

It is a fact that now Trump will become much stronger with the policies that Biden implemented on migrants from other countries, but what matters here is that neither Biden nor any other candidate see him as strong as Trump, in terms of As far as I'm concerned, I think that these things can happen like a few years ago where Trump swept, of course this is what I think, not according to what I've seen, for me what they are doing is something totally different, but if the politicians want to disqualify Trump with false accusations As they have done, they are going to unleash Trump to be Stronger and stronger, that is my Perception because Politicians are like that.

[nullama]

~snip~
The 2024 POTUS elections are going to be really interesting. Voters from both sides of the political spectrum are going to vote for a candidate not because they like them, but because they dislike the other candidate more. And regarding the charges that Trump is facing, I am not very sure. If someone from the Democrat party was in his place, then in all probability there will be no charges at all. Bill Clinton sexually abused several women while being the POTUS, and yet he never spent a single day behind bars. There seems to be different set of rules for different people within the United States.

I think most of the latest elections have been like that in a way.

Basically people voting for "the other" candidate because they simply dislike the alternative, instead of voting for specific people.

It's a divided country, and every year it gets more and more polarized. I hope they can see some sense from the other side because at the end of the day there are more similarities than differences.