Harris Vs Trump - Bitcoin betting on the 2024 US Presidential Election

[nelson4lov]

Don't forget to watch J.D. Vance's debate if it gets to it. He's pretty good at shutting down reporters and IMO going to destroy Walz if it comes to that.
When it comes to the main debate they both have a lot of dirt on each other so it's going to be a good show. I'd watch for the laughs and Trump is good at throwing dirt so unless she can think of something better than calling him a convicted criminal and a pervert, he's also going to destroy her.

Trump is always going to unload the entire dogshit whenever he gets the opportunity to do so that's why I won't be surprised if he does it against Kamala. Against Biden, he was fierce, he'd probably take it easy on Kamala. All in all, I'm lookin forward to the debate because it's going to be much more lively than the Trump vs Biden debate as the odds and pools should that when there's going to be a winner, it's going to be real tight.

[Sithara007]

Trump is always going to unload the entire dogshit whenever he gets the opportunity to do so that's why I won't be surprised if he does it against Kamala. Against Biden, he was fierce, he'd probably take it easy on Kamala. All in all, I'm lookin forward to the debate because it's going to be much more lively than the Trump vs Biden debate as the odds and pools should that when there's going to be a winner, it's going to be real tight.

Kamala is not that good in debates, unlike some of the other Democrat politicians. And she has already refused to debate Trump once. A debate was set for 4th September, with Fox News being the hosts. Kamala pulled out of it, since she was afraid of facing Trump. But at some point she need to take him heads on. Recent national polls have put Kamala ahead by a whisker (latest one is from ABC News/Ipsos). But that advantage can be lost in a moment, if she refuses to participate in the debates.

[TwitchySeal]

A debate was set for 4th September, with Fox News being the hosts. Kamala pulled out of it

No.  Trump literally just made that up and then repeated it a bunch of times and so the pro Trump media followed the lead and boom, millions of right wing media consumers now believe it to be true.  But it's not.  She never agreed to anything on fox and would be an idiot if she ever does after what Fox pulled after last election.

I don't see the debate having that big of an impact.  The billionaires will say Trump won bc taxes.  The people that believe Trumps lies or don't care about his lies will think Trump won because they've already been conditioned to believe that its gods will or something and the only two possible outcomes are Trump victory or democrat fraud.  (looking at you Sithara)

The rest will be more happy about voting for Kamala if she does well, and less happy about voting for her if she bombs.   All she has to do is not tell a bunch of obvious lies and she will win the debate by default according to any reasonable debate scoring system.

[nullama]

~snip~
Kamala is not that good in debates, unlike some of the other Democrat politicians. And she has already refused to debate Trump once. A debate was set for 4th September, with Fox News being the hosts. Kamala pulled out of it, since she was afraid of facing Trump. But at some point she need to take him heads on. Recent national polls have put Kamala ahead by a whisker (latest one is from ABC News/Ipsos). But that advantage can be lost in a moment, if she refuses to participate in the debates.

I just searched for the current polls summary from Wikipedia and it looks like this:



It seems to have a massive advantage to Harris.

But the thing with polls is that they can change at any time, as you can also see in the same graph.

[coolcoinz]

I just searched for the current polls summary from Wikipedia and it looks like this:



It seems to have a massive advantage to Harris.

But the thing with polls is that they can change at any time, as you can also see in the same graph.

The latest polls say it's 50.8 vs 49.2 for Harris. Also, the same poll says expected error is 3%, so this could as well be 49 vs 51 for Trump.
https://www.activote.net/harris-lead-significantly-reduced/

The voters are so biased towards one or the other candidate it gets ridiculous. For instance the majority of Black people vote for Harris, even though she's not black, but tells them that she is. Tell me that isn't stupid. Also, most high income people want Harris, even though she wants to raise taxes.

Also. There seems to be whole 4% of people who claim they're right in the political spectrum but will vote for Harris, who is totally on the left. Like why would anybody vote for someone who has completely opposite opinions on everything?

Anyway, the way I see it Trump will eventually win unless they kill him or arrest him for something.

[nullama]

~snip~
The latest polls say it's 50.8 vs 49.2 for Harris. Also, the same poll says expected error is 3%, so this could as well be 49 vs 51 for Trump.
https://www.activote.net/harris-lead-significantly-reduced/

The voters are so biased towards one or the other candidate it gets ridiculous. For instance the majority of Black people vote for Harris, even though she's not black, but tells them that she is. Tell me that isn't stupid. Also, most high income people want Harris, even though she wants to raise taxes.

Also. There seems to be whole 4% of people who claim they're right in the political spectrum but will vote for Harris, who is totally on the left. Like why would anybody vote for someone who has completely opposite opinions on everything?

Anyway, the way I see it Trump will eventually win unless they kill him or arrest him for something.

Yeah, I'm not sure about what is going to happen in the US in this upcoming election, because frankly speaking, it seems to be quite random.

It seems that a lot of people in the US simply vote for whatever ideals they have in their minds instead of actual plans.

I think it's becoming more and more of a TV show kind of thing were it's all just a game kind of thing.

Even only about a decade ago it was actually quite different. Now it's all just insults and trash talking the other party.

No one really talks about the way forward.

[Dave1]

After Trump was shot, I and all my friends thought that he would definitely be elected as the new president. But when Biden withdrew from the presidential race and Harris announced her candidacy, everything became completely unclear. She has a good chance of winning, because she decided to continue supporting Ukraine. And I think many people sympathize with this. Trump is in no hurry to assure everyone that he will do the same.

Yeah. I felt the same way. Trump got a big boost thanks to that failed assassination attempt, but he probably never anticipated Biden voluntarily giving up and letting Harris take his position.

The odds are bouncing back and forth between Trump and Harris these days which is why this race will go right down to the wire at the end. Crazy times.

Yes, he had build a momentum with the failed assassination and then he showed up in the Bitcoin conference and I think that was also a boost for him for crypto enthusiast. But I guess Biden had to make the right decision, and so he steps down and let Kamala Harris face Trump.

And guess what, the Dems are very happy that Biden did that. Now, we have seen Kamala Harris leading the poll with like 2-3 points now. It was a swing for here, nevertheless it ain't over for Trump. He had history of making a huge comeback just like what he did against Hillary Clinton.

It’s all just nonsense. The deciding factor will likely be how many voter identification laws are able to be passed before the election. So long as illegals are able to vote, democrats have themselves a pretty good situation at the polls. In the end though Harris is a nut and her policies are idiotic. I hope for the sake of our country that Don gets a second crack at it.

So everything is still up I guess, and that's why Trump has a chance because he had done it before. And although Harris is leading (depending on our source), still not enough to say that she will win the election.

If Trump was able to get a lot of votes because of his policies on illegals and what not, then maybe that is the swing that he needed.

And then we have pro-crypto as well that might go with him because of his positive stance.

[kro55]

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s support was only 3% before, but him leaving the campaign and siding with Trump cannot guarantee that 3% of the vote will go to Trump because we all know that the RFK family is a Democrat and he himself is a Democrat. His support for Trump also faced strong opposition from his own family, who voted for Harris.

Harris had been outperforming Trump in previous polls, but the situation suddenly changed when her statements on taxes and the economy failed to win over voters. That put Trump's support far ahead of hers, but now their odds are almost even.

https://polymarket.com/elections

Thanks for the link.
I thought that the percentage figures represented the popular votes from the polls, but they actually represent forecasted results accounting for the electoral votes, which is way better.
Do we know if the Polymarket uses their own polls or do they use combined results from multiple different polls, which is generally considered the best and most accurate way of making predictions?

As far as I know this is a decentralized betting site that is used by many organizations and companies and relies on its data. But in my opinion, most of the figures from surveys or online betting platforms are just popular votes. Meanwhile, the election results depend entirely on the electoral votes, so there is nothing reliable about these surveys.

I remember in 2016, most polls showed that Clinton would win, but in the end, Trump won by a large margin.
I believe that politics in the United States like in other countries is always more manipulated and complicated than we think. The president may have been elected instead of giving all the decision-making power to the people as we think, IMO.

[NotATether]

I remember in 2016, most polls showed that Clinton would win, but in the end, Trump won by a large margin.
I believe that politics in the United States like in other countries is always more manipulated and complicated than we think. The president may have been elected instead of giving all the decision-making power to the people as we think, IMO.

Because nobody liked Clinton from all of her opinions from long before Trump entered politics. So Trump was viewed more favorably at the time. Now it is the reverse situation, but with Harris.

[dzungmobile]

I remember in 2016, most polls showed that Clinton would win, but in the end, Trump won by a large margin.
I believe that politics in the United States like in other countries is always more manipulated and complicated than we think. The president may have been elected instead of giving all the decision-making power to the people as we think, IMO.

Trump was considered as an outsider in USA. politics in 2016 and people felt tired of traditional politicians and their lies so they felt a fresh air from Trump, then picked him as their President in that Election. Now with four years of border chaos and violence from illegal immigrants, it seems Trump has another great chance to beat his opponent from the Democratic Party in November 2024 President Election.

Because nobody liked Clinton from all of her opinions from long before Trump entered politics. So Trump was viewed more favorably at the time. Now it is the reverse situation, but with Harris.

I think it is not fair to compare Trump and Harris in two elections. Harris is a politician for many years but Trump was not before the 2016 Election. He only joined political community in the nation around 2016, not like Harris. People in the USA probably knew about Harris in politics more than what they knew of Trump before 2016.

[Haunebu]

Because nobody liked Clinton from all of her opinions from long before Trump entered politics. So Trump was viewed more favorably at the time. Now it is the reverse situation, but with Harris.

Agreed. Clinton just wanted power because she knew what it felt like thanks to her husband and didn't give two shits about the people due to which she got screwed big-time while Trump surprisingly won. Harris is a way better candidate than her in comparison.

I think it is not fair to compare Trump and Harris in two elections.

Trump is a businessman and politics is just another form of business which is why your reasoning makes zero sense here.

[cabron]

I remember in 2016, most polls showed that Clinton would win, but in the end, Trump won by a large margin.
I believe that politics in the United States like in other countries is always more manipulated and complicated than we think. The president may have been elected instead of giving all the decision-making power to the people as we think, IMO.

Trump was considered as an outsider in USA. politics in 2016 and people felt tired of traditional politicians and their lies so they felt a fresh air from Trump, then picked him as their President in that Election. Now with four years of border chaos and violence from illegal immigrants, it seems Trump has another great chance to beat his opponent from the Democratic Party in November 2024 President Election.

Because nobody liked Clinton from all of her opinions from long before Trump entered politics. So Trump was viewed more favorably at the time. Now it is the reverse situation, but with Harris.

I think it is not fair to compare Trump and Harris in two elections. Harris is a politician for many years but Trump was not before the 2016 Election. He only joined political community in the nation around 2016, not like Harris. People in the USA probably knew about Harris in politics more than what they knew of Trump before 2016.

Harris may be around for years in politics but I don't think she is well-liked after she became a vice president and a border czar. Biden put her in that position for her to be blamed for the illegal migration and she willingly accepted it. And she even supported defunding the police. With all the stupid policies she supported, I doubt she has the advantage over Trump.

If there ever is a debate, that's when people see this lady is not black. They know it's her downfall and could be the reason for the no debate for Kamala. But Trump may still be exposing her sooner.

[Sithara007]

Harris may be around for years in politics but I don't think she is well-liked after she became a vice president and a border czar. Biden put her in that position for her to be blamed for the illegal migration and she willingly accepted it. And she even supported defunding the police. With all the stupid policies she supported, I doubt she has the advantage over Trump.

If there ever is a debate, that's when people see this lady is not black. They know it's her downfall and could be the reason for the no debate for Kamala. But Trump may still be exposing her sooner.

Well.. she doesn't need to worry about it. It is really easy to fool the American people. Especially if you have the media with you. Kamala will issue a few statements against illegal aliens and violence and a lot of stupid neutral voters are going to trust her and vote blue on November. Entire social media world (except Twitter) is with Kamala, and mainstream media is also 99% with her. On top of that, there will be industrial scale vote rigging and fraud by Democrats during the presidential elections. Given all this, Kamala doesn't need to worry.

[yahoo62278]

Harris may be around for years in politics but I don't think she is well-liked after she became a vice president and a border czar. Biden put her in that position for her to be blamed for the illegal migration and she willingly accepted it. And she even supported defunding the police. With all the stupid policies she supported, I doubt she has the advantage over Trump.

If there ever is a debate, that's when people see this lady is not black. They know it's her downfall and could be the reason for the no debate for Kamala. But Trump may still be exposing her sooner.

Well.. she doesn't need to worry about it. It is really easy to fool the American people. Especially if you have the media with you. Kamala will issue a few statements against illegal aliens and violence and a lot of stupid neutral voters are going to trust her and vote blue on November. Entire social media world (except Twitter) is with Kamala, and mainstream media is also 99% with her. On top of that, there will be industrial scale vote rigging and fraud by Democrats during the presidential elections. Given all this, Kamala doesn't need to worry.

I think there are a few morons in the American culture but no more than every other race in the world. That doesn't mean they're all dumb as hell though. Most people know that all Politicians are full of shit. They just tell 1 lie after another trying to get votes, make empty promises that they cannot get done, and hope that noone remembers on the next election.

Trump(as long as he stays out of prison) is likely going to win this election and we will see the nutso media crucify him for the next 4 years along with the Democrats help.

[redsun114]

I just searched for the current polls summary from Wikipedia and it looks like this:



It seems to have a massive advantage to Harris.

But the thing with polls is that they can change at any time, as you can also see in the same graph.

The problem with polls is not the fact that it will change, but the electoral college state calculations. This just shows who will win the popular vote, and even Trump himself along with every republican politician and voter in the world would agree that Kamala Harris will get more votes, everyone knows that. What does these polls do? They call and ask people who they will vote for, and that means you can learn a few thousand peoples votes, but not the states.

You would have to call few thousand people from every single state to make this calculation, and that would cost a lot and nobody is paying that much money to these poll companies to make it worth doing that. So that is why I believe that we are going to see poll calculations mean nothing. As long as we do not know all states all at once, most places have state by state, but they are very small in scale because of that, we need one company to do all states, and then share state by state, that would be a lot better.

[Sithara007]

I think there are a few morons in the American culture but no more than every other race in the world. That doesn't mean they're all dumb as hell though. Most people know that all Politicians are full of shit. They just tell 1 lie after another trying to get votes, make empty promises that they cannot get done, and hope that noone remembers on the next election.

Trump(as long as he stays out of prison) is likely going to win this election and we will see the nutso media crucify him for the next 4 years along with the Democrats help.

Well.. let's see. If media was at least partially fair, then Kamala would be one of the most hated human beings in entire United States. But American media is good in hiding truth. Trump is unlikely to go to prison. By now the Democrats have realized that it will create further sympathy waves for Trump, especially after the assassination attempt which was directed at him. Now their focus will be on vote rigging, using the millions of illegals whom they imported to the United States during the last four years.

[Pokapoka124]

Harris may be around for years in politics but I don't think she is well-liked after she became a vice president and a border czar. Biden put her in that position for her to be blamed for the illegal migration and she willingly accepted it. And she even supported defunding the police. With all the stupid policies she supported, I doubt she has the advantage over Trump.

If there ever is a debate, that's when people see this lady is not black. They know it's her downfall and could be the reason for the no debate for Kamala. But Trump may still be exposing her sooner.

I hardly watch the news anymore because it’s full of propaganda. It’s incredible how Politicians can look into a camera and lie to the people. Joe Biden had no business being the President of the United States, there was a three and half years coverup of Joe Biden’s memory loss.  And after that first debate— the democrats knew Biden’s days were over.

 Kamala Harris was pushed up the ladder due to she’s a woman & a woman of color. You can google her parents. None of them are Black. The Democrats are pushing the narrative that she’s black to win over the black community and minority groups.

[Akbarkoe]

I think there are a few morons in the American culture but no more than every other race in the world. That doesn't mean they're all dumb as hell though. Most people know that all Politicians are full of shit. They just tell 1 lie after another trying to get votes, make empty promises that they cannot get done, and hope that noone remembers on the next election.

Trump(as long as he stays out of prison) is likely going to win this election and we will see the nutso media crucify him for the next 4 years along with the Democrats help.

The democratic system with elections by the whole community, political nonsense is indeed a culture in such countries, such as my own country here, and fools will believe and feel that they will get something in the future if they vote for people who make promises in front of their eyes, fools are easily manipulated and finally they complain and argue due to many problems that occur, hahaha the usual cycle in such politics.

[sompitonov]

I think there are a few morons in the American culture but no more than every other race in the world. That doesn't mean they're all dumb as hell though. Most people know that all Politicians are full of shit. They just tell 1 lie after another trying to get votes, make empty promises that they cannot get done, and hope that noone remembers on the next election.

Trump(as long as he stays out of prison) is likely going to win this election and we will see the nutso media crucify him for the next 4 years along with the Democrats help.

The democratic system with elections by the whole community, political nonsense is indeed a culture in such countries, such as my own country here, and fools will believe and feel that they will get something in the future if they vote for people who make promises in front of their eyes, fools are easily manipulated and finally they complain and argue due to many problems that occur, hahaha the usual cycle in such politics.

Of course, they have some indirect influence on our lives. But I realized that the most important thing for me is to develop and not stand still, because 90 and more depends on what we do today. You can choose to sit at home on the couch and criticize candidates, but it is better to do your favorite thing that brings profit and start looking at life from a different angle. We must take control of our destiny, and we should not forget to go and vote in elections, but I would call it secondary, at least for me. Of course, there are those who spend all their free time and energy on this, but I think for them there will be a small positive result.

[Wakate]

Harris may be around for years in politics but I don't think she is well-liked after she became a vice president and a border czar. Biden put her in that position for her to be blamed for the illegal migration and she willingly accepted it. And she even supported defunding the police. With all the stupid policies she supported, I doubt she has the advantage over Trump.

If there ever is a debate, that's when people see this lady is not black. They know it's her downfall and could be the reason for the no debate for Kamala. But Trump may still be exposing her sooner.

I hardly watch the news anymore because it’s full of propaganda. It’s incredible how Politicians can look into a camera and lie to the people. Joe Biden had no business being the President of the United States, there was a three and half years coverup of Joe Biden’s memory loss.  And after that first debate— the democrats knew Biden’s days were over.

 Kamala Harris was pushed up the ladder due to she’s a woman & a woman of color. You can google her parents. None of them are Black. The Democrats are pushing the narrative that she’s black to win over the black community and minority groups.

This election is actually going to be hot as hell because their might be a lot of rigging which had been planned by the current administration to make sure that Kamala Harris take the lead position in this election. This will be very difficult for the the Democrats because everyone is watching and waiting to see the outcome of this election. Trump inw already prepared and after the assassination, the world could see that there is something going underground that has not been revealed to the general public. I hope to see the debate between the two opposition party and know their plans for the United States citizens at large.