Harris Vs Trump - Bitcoin betting on the 2024 US Presidential Election

[GigaBit]

I believe Trump was a slight underdog on many betting websites until Robert F. Kennedy Jr's endorsement (I could be wrong though), now most odds are set at 50/50 for Trump/Kamala, so it seems the endorsement did make some impact.
According to YouGov's poll cited by the Independent, before RFK pulled out, 1% of declared Democrats intended to vote for him:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/rfk-jr-trump-harris-polls-endorsement-b2601082.html
I don't expect that 1% of the votes will now go to Trump, but Trump will surely get a decent portion of RFK voters who declare themselves as independent or Republican-leaning.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s support was only 3% before, but him leaving the campaign and siding with Trump cannot guarantee that 3% of the vote will go to Trump because we all know that the RFK family is a Democrat and he himself is a Democrat. His support for Trump also faced strong opposition from his own family, who voted for Harris.

Harris had been outperforming Trump in previous polls, but the situation suddenly changed when her statements on taxes and the economy failed to win over voters. That put Trump's support far ahead of hers, but now their odds are almost even.

https://polymarket.com/elections

this sort of close margine between trump and Harris kamala makes the race of getting who eventually takes charge of the white house more interesting. Though Robert. F Kennedy has joined trump and naturally, it's supposed to give Trump some advantage but his 3% supporters can't make much difference and can easily get suppressed into the same range of margin Trump and Kamala still shares. The events playing out ever since Biden stepped out of the way for Kamala and how it has boosted the hope of the democrat in wining at the pools come November is a reflection of what difference the individual flag bearer plays in an electionary setting like this have on the outcome of an election. At this point where the margin between Trump and Kamala is this close, every factor that gives you some added relevance over your rival really counts big time.

A survey conducted in swing states by Emerson College Polling, The Hill and WOOD TV8 found that there was a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Harris is leading there by a small margin. 50 percent of voters there will support Harris and 47 percent think Donald Trump is qualified and will vote for him. But 3 percent of people are still not sure who they will support. In this situation, I think it will not make a big difference in the election. Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump could have a tough race. Chances are there won't be much of a gap. However, there is no way to compare other places in the US with any specific population numbers. Different places will have different statistics.

[bubilas]

After Trump was shot, I and all my friends thought that he would definitely be elected as the new president. But when Biden withdrew from the presidential race and Harris announced her candidacy, everything became completely unclear. She has a good chance of winning, because she decided to continue supporting Ukraine. And I think many people sympathize with this. Trump is in no hurry to assure everyone that he will do the same.

[3kpk3]

After Trump was shot, I and all my friends thought that he would definitely be elected as the new president. But when Biden withdrew from the presidential race and Harris announced her candidacy, everything became completely unclear. She has a good chance of winning, because she decided to continue supporting Ukraine. And I think many people sympathize with this. Trump is in no hurry to assure everyone that he will do the same.

Yeah. I felt the same way. Trump got a big boost thanks to that failed assassination attempt, but he probably never anticipated Biden voluntarily giving up and letting Harris take his position.

The odds are bouncing back and forth between Trump and Harris these days which is why this race will go right down to the wire at the end. Crazy times.

[Dave1]

After Trump was shot, I and all my friends thought that he would definitely be elected as the new president. But when Biden withdrew from the presidential race and Harris announced her candidacy, everything became completely unclear. She has a good chance of winning, because she decided to continue supporting Ukraine. And I think many people sympathize with this. Trump is in no hurry to assure everyone that he will do the same.

Yeah. I felt the same way. Trump got a big boost thanks to that failed assassination attempt, but he probably never anticipated Biden voluntarily giving up and letting Harris take his position.

The odds are bouncing back and forth between Trump and Harris these days which is why this race will go right down to the wire at the end. Crazy times.

Yes, he had build a momentum with the failed assassination and then he showed up in the Bitcoin conference and I think that was also a boost for him for crypto enthusiast. But I guess Biden had to make the right decision, and so he steps down and let Kamala Harris face Trump.

And guess what, the Dems are very happy that Biden did that. Now, we have seen Kamala Harris leading the poll with like 2-3 points now. It was a swing for here, nevertheless it ain't over for Trump. He had history of making a huge comeback just like what he did against Hillary Clinton.

[OgNasty]

After Trump was shot, I and all my friends thought that he would definitely be elected as the new president. But when Biden withdrew from the presidential race and Harris announced her candidacy, everything became completely unclear. She has a good chance of winning, because she decided to continue supporting Ukraine. And I think many people sympathize with this. Trump is in no hurry to assure everyone that he will do the same.

Yeah. I felt the same way. Trump got a big boost thanks to that failed assassination attempt, but he probably never anticipated Biden voluntarily giving up and letting Harris take his position.

The odds are bouncing back and forth between Trump and Harris these days which is why this race will go right down to the wire at the end. Crazy times.

Yes, he had build a momentum with the failed assassination and then he showed up in the Bitcoin conference and I think that was also a boost for him for crypto enthusiast. But I guess Biden had to make the right decision, and so he steps down and let Kamala Harris face Trump.

And guess what, the Dems are very happy that Biden did that. Now, we have seen Kamala Harris leading the poll with like 2-3 points now. It was a swing for here, nevertheless it ain't over for Trump. He had history of making a huge comeback just like what he did against Hillary Clinton.

It’s all just nonsense. The deciding factor will likely be how many voter identification laws are able to be passed before the election. So long as illegals are able to vote, democrats have themselves a pretty good situation at the polls. In the end though Harris is a nut and her policies are idiotic. I hope for the sake of our country that Don gets a second crack at it.

[arwin100]

After Trump was shot, I and all my friends thought that he would definitely be elected as the new president. But when Biden withdrew from the presidential race and Harris announced her candidacy, everything became completely unclear. She has a good chance of winning, because she decided to continue supporting Ukraine. And I think many people sympathize with this. Trump is in no hurry to assure everyone that he will do the same.

Yeah. I felt the same way. Trump got a big boost thanks to that failed assassination attempt, but he probably never anticipated Biden voluntarily giving up and letting Harris take his position.

The odds are bouncing back and forth between Trump and Harris these days which is why this race will go right down to the wire at the end. Crazy times.

Yes, he had build a momentum with the failed assassination and then he showed up in the Bitcoin conference and I think that was also a boost for him for crypto enthusiast. But I guess Biden had to make the right decision, and so he steps down and let Kamala Harris face Trump.

And guess what, the Dems are very happy that Biden did that. Now, we have seen Kamala Harris leading the poll with like 2-3 points now. It was a swing for here, nevertheless it ain't over for Trump. He had history of making a huge comeback just like what he did against Hillary Clinton.

It’s all just nonsense. The deciding factor will likely be how many voter identification laws are able to be passed before the election. So long as illegals are able to vote, democrats have themselves a pretty good situation at the polls. In the end though Harris is a nut and her policies are idiotic. I hope for the sake of our country that Don gets a second crack at it.

Update from latest poll https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

Still questioning how it end up like that. Trump got a big lead before but now as fast as that they already gain momentum to surpass Trumps dominance? Feels like there's something wrong with the poll but let see if Harris could really convert it to real votes since if it happens that Trumps win that means they are manipulating polls to be in favor with them. Also for what Biden did I guess its really better for Americans to vote for another President and they don't let their country handled by politicians who might continue the mess created by their past President.

[Haunebu]

It’s all just nonsense. The deciding factor will likely be how many voter identification laws are able to be passed before the election. So long as illegals are able to vote, democrats have themselves a pretty good situation at the polls. In the end though Harris is a nut and her policies are idiotic. I hope for the sake of our country that Don gets a second crack at it.

Harris might be a nut indeed, but Trump is a bigger nut than her and has proven that time and time again. Illegals will keep voting in droves most probably. Hope Harris somehow wins and kicks that fat fool to the curb once and for all.

Also for what Biden did I guess its really better for Americans to vote for another President and they don't let their country handled by politicians who might continue the mess created by their past President.

Biden was a bad president, but Trump was just as worse. Both of these jokers never really deserved the presidential position in the first place.

[TwitchySeal]

After Trump was shot, I and all my friends thought that he would definitely be elected as the new president. But when Biden withdrew from the presidential race and Harris announced her candidacy, everything became completely unclear. She has a good chance of winning, because she decided to continue supporting Ukraine. And I think many people sympathize with this. Trump is in no hurry to assure everyone that he will do the same.

Yeah. I felt the same way. Trump got a big boost thanks to that failed assassination attempt, but he probably never anticipated Biden voluntarily giving up and letting Harris take his position.

The odds are bouncing back and forth between Trump and Harris these days which is why this race will go right down to the wire at the end. Crazy times.

Yes, he had build a momentum with the failed assassination and then he showed up in the Bitcoin conference and I think that was also a boost for him for crypto enthusiast. But I guess Biden had to make the right decision, and so he steps down and let Kamala Harris face Trump.

And guess what, the Dems are very happy that Biden did that. Now, we have seen Kamala Harris leading the poll with like 2-3 points now. It was a swing for here, nevertheless it ain't over for Trump. He had history of making a huge comeback just like what he did against Hillary Clinton.

It’s all just nonsense. The deciding factor will likely be how many voter identification laws are able to be passed before the election. So long as illegals are able to vote, democrats have themselves a pretty good situation at the polls. In the end though Harris is a nut and her policies are idiotic. I hope for the sake of our country that Don gets a second crack at it.

Funny claim when you consider the only evidence of fraud at a level that had any possibility of influencing the outcome of the last election resulted in Trump being indicted by 3 grand juries.

Example:





If you're worried about election integrity, don't vote for the guy that lost the last one and then committed fraud to try and steal it!

[khiholangkang]

After Trump was shot, I and all my friends thought that he would definitely be elected as the new president. But when Biden withdrew from the presidential race and Harris announced her candidacy, everything became completely unclear. She has a good chance of winning, because she decided to continue supporting Ukraine. And I think many people sympathize with this. Trump is in no hurry to assure everyone that he will do the same.

Indeed, Trump's shooting incident was a very surprising thing in this US election, it was unexpected and it happened, which made many people sympathize with Trump and from there Trump had increased electability because all the media told about him.

However, Biden's withdrawal from the nomination made Kamala Harris have more support because the votes attached to Biden switched to Kamala, and today it is a tight competition between Kamala and Trump, actually not because of the issue of Ukraine alone, but many other factors as a sentiment Harris became the best option for citizens.

[Sithara007]

Indeed, Trump's shooting incident was a very surprising thing in this US election, it was unexpected and it happened, which made many people sympathize with Trump and from there Trump had increased electability because all the media told about him.

However, Biden's withdrawal from the nomination made Kamala Harris have more support because the votes attached to Biden switched to Kamala, and today it is a tight competition between Kamala and Trump, actually not because of the issue of Ukraine alone, but many other factors as a sentiment Harris became the best option for citizens.

A lot of speculation is going on, but I normally just trust the opinion polls. And today, EPIC-MRA published opinion polls for the state of Michigan. Trump is leading Harris by 1 point (the poll shows Kennedy still at 3%). If Trump is leading in a light-blue state such as Michigan, then things are going to get a lot worse for Kamala. Even in 2016 and 2020, polls showed Democrat candidate well ahead in this state. BTW, in RCP no-tossup map Kamala is now leading Trump (270 vs 268) after the crucial state of Pennsylvania flipped.

[Baofeng]

After Trump was shot, I and all my friends thought that he would definitely be elected as the new president. But when Biden withdrew from the presidential race and Harris announced her candidacy, everything became completely unclear. She has a good chance of winning, because she decided to continue supporting Ukraine. And I think many people sympathize with this. Trump is in no hurry to assure everyone that he will do the same.

Yeah. I felt the same way. Trump got a big boost thanks to that failed assassination attempt, but he probably never anticipated Biden voluntarily giving up and letting Harris take his position.

The odds are bouncing back and forth between Trump and Harris these days which is why this race will go right down to the wire at the end. Crazy times.

Yes, he had build a momentum with the failed assassination and then he showed up in the Bitcoin conference and I think that was also a boost for him for crypto enthusiast. But I guess Biden had to make the right decision, and so he steps down and let Kamala Harris face Trump.

And guess what, the Dems are very happy that Biden did that. Now, we have seen Kamala Harris leading the poll with like 2-3 points now. It was a swing for here, nevertheless it ain't over for Trump. He had history of making a huge comeback just like what he did against Hillary Clinton.

It’s all just nonsense. The deciding factor will likely be how many voter identification laws are able to be passed before the election. So long as illegals are able to vote, democrats have themselves a pretty good situation at the polls. In the end though Harris is a nut and her policies are idiotic. I hope for the sake of our country that Don gets a second crack at it.

And I also doubt that Kamala Harris will make the same mistakes as Hillary does. So it's going to be a very tight race for the Presidency here. And Trump is not going to be a easy candidate to defeat even if Harris is so called leading the polls.

So it's going to be interesting on their planned debate. American voters could really see and might have the conclusion on who they are going to win. So far as the polls suggested, the numbers are very close.

[Hispo]

...

Actually, when seen through the optics of the democrat party, Joe Biden dropping out the race is one of the best things which could have happened to them, as it increased the chances of their party to coming back to the game and have an actual chance to win against Trump,.much people indeed sympathized with Trump after he got shot, democrats knew that and pressured Biden to stepping aside.
Even though things seems to be going good for the democracy party with Kamala, I am still not sure whether the United States is ready to elect a non-white woman as their maximum federal leader, there is still much sexism and racism within USA society.
People may end up voting for Kamala Harris not for her directly but rather because her running mate, Waltz has shown to hold much charisma and good political energy..

[khiholangkang]

...

Actually, when seen through the optics of the democrat party, Joe Biden dropping out the race is one of the best things which could have happened to them, as it increased the chances of their party to coming back to the game and have an actual chance to win against Trump,.much people indeed sympathized with Trump after he got shot, democrats knew that and pressured Biden to stepping aside.
Even though things seems to be going good for the democracy party with Kamala, I am still not sure whether the United States is ready to elect a non-white woman as their maximum federal leader, there is still much sexism and racism within USA society.
People may end up voting for Kamala Harris not for her directly but rather because her running mate, Waltz has shown to hold much charisma and good political energy..

Image source

It seems that there are indeed many positive things approaching Harris from those who are approaching him which makes all this even more so that he is supported by the citizens and his electability peaks after deciding to join Weltz.

I don't know why but it might happen like the Simpsons prophecy, in their episode Kamala leads the US, but yes this is out of the nalaar and cannot be logicalized, because it might just be a prediction, but if true, this will be quite interesting in US politics, time continues and the election is getting closer, Trump if he wants to regain the position of President then there needs to be an uproar that can make him have a great possibility of winning.

[Sithara007]

InsiderAdvantage has published a few polls today. And in general they have been good for Donald Trump. This is a pollster who is considered as neutral (i.e not right or left leaning). They published state-level results for Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona. In Georgia it is a tie between Trump and Kamala (48% vs 48%), however Trump is leading everywhere else. The Republican leaning Trafalgar Group also published a few opinion polls. According to them, it is a tie in Michigan and Trump is leading in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

[tygeade]

And I also doubt that Kamala Harris will make the same mistakes as Hillary does. So it's going to be a very tight race for the Presidency here. And Trump is not going to be a easy candidate to defeat even if Harris is so called leading the polls.

So it's going to be interesting on their planned debate. American voters could really see and might have the conclusion on who they are going to win. So far as the polls suggested, the numbers are very close.

Seems like she is doing one very important thing right, which is the most important part; she is going to the swing states and giving speeches every single day. Hillary never thought Trump could win, Hillary actually thought that was the easiest election that could ever happen, because nobody ever gave Trump a chance at all and it looked like it was a done deal without much difficulty at all which is why she didn't go to any swing states and she only went to fundraisers for billionaires and nothing more, which made people pissed and that's how Trump won.

Now Kamala is going everywhere, she is working hard, she is at every swing state and even multiple cities in those states as well, trying to get as many people to vote as possible. That may make a huge difference.

[bitgolden]

After Trump was shot, I and all my friends thought that he would definitely be elected as the new president. But when Biden withdrew from the presidential race and Harris announced her candidacy, everything became completely unclear. She has a good chance of winning, because she decided to continue supporting Ukraine. And I think many people sympathize with this. Trump is in no hurry to assure everyone that he will do the same.

Yeah. I felt the same way. Trump got a big boost thanks to that failed assassination attempt, but he probably never anticipated Biden voluntarily giving up and letting Harris take his position.

The odds are bouncing back and forth between Trump and Harris these days which is why this race will go right down to the wire at the end. Crazy times.

The smartest thing the DNC ever did was pull Biden out. Imagine if Biden was still around as the candidate, I mean after the assassination, just like a week later or so Biden got out and Kamala got it, and that changed the topic very quickly.

We could have Trump talk about his assassination attempt for months if this didn't happen. Hell dude is acting as if he hasn't been to every part of the country without much help, and now he is doing his speeches behind some glass, a glass that covers basically just one to three sides sort of, anyone behind him could still be armed, and if not armed then where is the second amendment speech that he gives? Will NRA stop supporting him?

It's so obvious that this was something Trump would have used for winning, thankfully DNC just moved Biden out and Kamala news took over and Trump has no tool to use left, he doesn't even go around, he doesn't even debate, it's sort of like he might actually stopped trying even.

[EarnOnVictor]

After Trump was shot

Who shot Trump? Or do you want to say when his shooting was stage-managed? I still don't believe the whole episode.

I and all my friends thought that he would definitely be elected as the new president. But when Biden withdrew from the presidential race and Harris announced her candidacy, everything became completely unclear. She has a good chance of winning, because she decided to continue supporting Ukraine. And I think many people sympathize with this. Trump is in no hurry to assure everyone that he will do the same.

Of course, that incident helped him to gain more sympathy and obviously more virtual poll scores than Biden. This coupled with the nonsense debate by Biden which totally exposed some of his inadequacy to continue as the US president. But everything changed when a woman was now contesting against him, and not only a woman but a woman of colour. A lot would use the two factors to vote her in even as white women who are feminists in particular might change their mind just to support their fellow women.

Above all, I don't know how would eventually win, but Trump will certainly lose the undue advantage he would have gained when contesting against Biden and Harris's support for Ukraine may hint a little also as Trump is always silent about that injustice.

[el kaka22]

Five Thirty Eight still has Harris polling 3.2% higher than Trump right now, but because of the electoral college that is not big enough to make it a win for her just yet, it depends on the states that she is ahead.

I mean just because she is ahead, doesn't mean she is ahead at right places, she could win the popular vote, well not "could", we all know that more Americans will vote for Kamala Harris than Donald Trump, there is no scenario ever that Donald comes even a million near her, he will get much much much less votes, probably a few million at least, but because of EC, states matters. And if Kamala gets a ton of votes thanks to places like California or New York, and lose swing states, that doesn't mean she will win.

So, there is still a lot of work to do left to her. She keeps going around at swing states, which is nice, she doesn't waste time on Texas or Florida type of places at all, which many democrats made a mistake of doing, no democrat will win there, so it's clear that she is doing fine with just focusing on swing states at all times. Momentum is still with her, it is going to take a lot of work, but it's possible and it's there and it can be done, this election seems way too close right now.

[STT]

I agree, believe the polls if you like thats fair enough but a Democrat needs more of an advantage for a win then just a few percent.   If thats all she rolls into the election with I would be thinking Trump can actually win and I spent this whole year arguing he most probably wont.

The debate forthcoming is where I'll take more interest, if that can produce some move in the numbers then it might just become an easy bet.  Pay attention on that day and obviously the reaction nationwide, it wont profitable for long it will just become a forgone conclusion.

  The last election was the ideal because of how extreme the party support for Trump is but equally obvious was a recession and all those covid deaths no way he could win that, now its a better chance.

[darkangel11]

The debate forthcoming is where I'll take more interest, if that can produce some move in the numbers then it might just become an easy bet.  Pay attention on that day and obviously the reaction nationwide, it wont profitable for long it will just become a forgone conclusion.

Don't forget to watch J.D. Vance's debate if it gets to it. He's pretty good at shutting down reporters and IMO going to destroy Walz if it comes to that.
When it comes to the main debate they both have a lot of dirt on each other so it's going to be a good show. I'd watch for the laughs and Trump is good at throwing dirt so unless she can think of something better than calling him a convicted criminal and a pervert, he's also going to destroy her.