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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1806590 times)
adamstgBit
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August 22, 2014, 03:03:52 PM
 #10981


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August 22, 2014, 03:12:14 PM
 #10982

Cypherdoc, where do you see gold and silver 1 to 2 years from now?

BTC: 1GtZdBxbNpsLRUPcrHzDjCycEF7rkJ4Agh
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August 22, 2014, 03:14:26 PM
 #10983

Cypherdoc, where do you see gold and silver 1 to 2 years from now?

much lower
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August 22, 2014, 03:42:39 PM
 #10984

What spawned the silver rally in 2011?  And where do you see the silver price by end of 2014?

there's a 9yr cycle in gold.  silver usually moves with it and oftentimes leads.  the last bottom of that cycle was Oct 2008. i used that cycle, along with fundamentals and the Bitcoin phenomenon, to call my personal top in silver in the last week of Apr 2011 and gold in Aug 2011:  Gold: I Smell a Trap.  when a chart blows off like that so early in a cycle, it usually means it's going to end up being L translated and end up lower than it started.

you can see the run up in silver into its top in May 2011 soon after its bottom in Oct 2008. b/c silver often leads gold, to me, it was an obvious blow off top despite what all the silver pumpers were stating at the time, which was "going to 200". it's concerning when a chart blows off like that so early in its cycle b/c it's likely to end up L translated and bearish.  i picked that top @48 by selling 3 junk bags of silver in May and averaging out @44 soon thereafter.  don't get me wrong, there is some luck in doing something like that.  it's not a science.  it's intuition, experience, fundamentals, technicals, all combined.  b/c of the steepness of that blowoff, i can't see it coming back for a long time.  remember the last blowoff was in 1980.



edit: b/c silver leads, and i thought it topped in May 2011, then i was hunting for the gold top soon thereafter, which ended up being Sept 2011.  gold had been in an 10-11 yr bull at that point.
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August 22, 2014, 03:59:09 PM
 #10985

just to prove i'm not BS'ing:

Quote
bit coin needs to  be freely exchanged with silver and gold,so you can store your surplus wealth of bitcoin in the pyisical world of assets, just the same as you securely store them in your electronic wallet.

I couldn't agree more.  Eventually the bitcoin community will figure out that there is no point trading bitcoins for a government sponsored depreciating currency and they will flock to gold and silver.  Bitcoins my have more upside than silver right now but silver is hands down the safer bet.  I'm afraid there are a large number of people here that have overextended themselves with BTC and will get wiped out at the next big pullback.  Better to hold your savings in a couple different forms of hard assets and ride out the volitility.

Glad to see there are at least a couple other silver bugs here as well.  Grin  



before we start this debate of PM's vs. btc, i will say i started investing in gold and silver back in 2005 with gold at $550 and silver at $9.  this week i liquidated 3 bags of junk silver and converted to btc after what amts to a 500% profit in silver.  i still hold over half my holdings in bullion and won't sell any gold.  clearly i am a PM's bull but turning less so and very much a btc bull.  i believe that digital currency is the future.  the question is does it have to be backed by PM's to be successful?  i don't think so.  as a former Goldmoney holder, which i think is the std, i don't see that gold backed digital currency community growing at all esp. in comparison to btc.  why is this so?  1. few ppl can afford PM's at this price in terms of per ounce, 2. even if they could afford they can't transport it to London or Switzerland where their vaults are to then set up a digital acct, 3. u can only transact with other Goldmoney accts, 4.  even if Goldmoney vaults or other vendor vaults were located around the world it becomes impractical to move the stuff around to balance out accts, 5. the digital age demands an easier way to transact.  evidence of this is the M-Pesa in Kenya.  as long as the amt of btc is not allowed to inflate beyond its stated objectives it will grow in value and be a much more effective way to transact than PM's.  i think that todays speed of transaction and efficiency MAY have made PM's impractical.   PM's are a play on armageddon where the whole internet gets junked b/c of severe worldwide depression and deflation.  this would do btc in for sure.  i just don't think we get that bad, altho it IS going to get bad.
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August 22, 2014, 04:15:14 PM
 #10986

^^^^
Thanks for the info! So at what price do you see silver to likely bottom out, and when?  Just curious.
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August 22, 2014, 04:15:18 PM
 #10987

Bitcoin UP, everything else DOWN.

Wrong: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ltcbtc  and https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/ltcusd   Grin Grin Grin

Cypher you know better than to spread misinformation. Come on man.  Roll Eyes

GO smoothie GO!!!

Looks like you quoted it for you to preview before posting it. Thanks for clarifying what "everything" is and isn't. How can one assume it doesn't include Alts when you appear to discuss them on a daily basis in this very thread?  Roll Eyes


and as for "everything", i'd bet 10 USD that i used the term for just those assets as i defined them back when you were subbed to my letter.  there's no inconsistency.  i'll try to be clearer next time.

I can honestly say that I do not remember you defining "everything" to mean only those assets/investments.

I appreciate your willingness to be more clear in the future.

smoothie, here is the context in which i usually use the "everything else down" phrase.  as you can see, it can't possibly include Litecoin:

PM's are a play on armageddon where the whole internet gets junked b/c of severe worldwide depression and deflation.  this would do btc in for sure.  i just don't think we get that bad, altho it IS going to get bad.

I've never quite understood this. If we're talking a Mad Max type situation, is anybody going to want gold, except perhaps for its industrial uses? I think oil, food, or other useful consumables will be in much higher demand.

before btc came along, i was a big believer in Bob Prechter's theory of dollar down, everything else up (incl PM's); dollar up, everything else down.  if u look at mkts u can pretty much see this is exactly what has happened since the advent of the Fed and even more tightly correlated since 1971 when the gold std was revoked.  paradoxically, acc. to Prechter, if we go into a depression (we had a small whiff of this in 2008), the dollar will skyrocket and everything else will crash incl. PM's.  If you look at FerBanke's actions in light of this theory, u clearly see he believes we r on the brink of severe deflation and depression which is why he has pulled out all the stops and more in inflating the money supply.  amazingly he has sparked the greatest stock mkt rally ever since the bottom Mar 2009.  the question is whether we're in another bubble. i think we are.  BTC was spawned by Satoshi precisely b/c of worldwide central bank reflation.  so it is an inflationary phenomenon as far as i'm concerned and certainly will flourish in that environment.  the real question is what happens to BTC if everything goes into reverse and we re enter the deflationary spiral b/c some bubble blows up somewhere like the Middle East or a European default.  it certainly could crash as well as the dollar skyrockets.  why would the dollar skyrocket.  b/c 60% of world debt is USD and would have to be liquidated severely contracting USD money supply and paradoxically increasing its value.  up until recently i believed BTC would crash as well but i'm increasingly leaning against that view.  why?  b/c i think the drive towards BTC popularity will be b/c of its inherent STABILITY.  the problem with the USD is its INSTABILITY with a bias to the downside.  every business owner incl myself hates this volatility making it hard to make longterm business decisions.  the Fed doesn't understand this.  i don't think the 2nd Great Depression takes down the internet or smartphone technology and will be the winner in the end vs gold and USD.
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August 22, 2014, 04:18:02 PM
 #10988

^^^^
Thanks for the info! So at what price do you see silver to likely bottom out, and when?  Just curious.

single digits.
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August 22, 2014, 04:20:31 PM
 #10989

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/502850256984612864
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August 22, 2014, 04:23:12 PM
 #10990

for all my former subs, what do u see here?  answer: a series of L translated cycles:



If it cracks that triple bottom at around 18.5...
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August 22, 2014, 05:19:37 PM
 #10991

@ cypher

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zmi_3Q0w9kE&feature=youtu.be&t=15m49s  (total 6 min)
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2ea79w/at_the_end_of_the_day_currency_language/

The above Naval Ravikant - you-tube, from Reddit I think sums up nicely the common ground that Bitcoin will always be the base reserve and the opportunity for alts or support services like OT.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
rpietila
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August 22, 2014, 05:31:53 PM
 #10992

for all my former subs, what do u see here?  answer: a series of L translated cycles:



If it cracks that triple bottom at around 18.5...

Yeah. All I see is a tremendous support.

Silver is not a stock. It does not go to zero.

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August 22, 2014, 05:33:35 PM
 #10993

for all my former subs, what do u see here?  answer: a series of L translated cycles:



If it cracks that triple bottom at around 18.5...

Yeah. All I see is a tremendous support.

Silver is not a stock. It does not go to zero.
Don't the lower high's worry you then?
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August 22, 2014, 06:26:59 PM
 #10994

http://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/

Ambrose Pritchard Evans @ 44min:

"major, major dollar rally".
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August 22, 2014, 06:32:28 PM
 #10995

Don't the lower high's worry you then?

Well I am in general the type of person that honestly does not care how much things are valued in $hitpaper.

Proudly. Ever since 2006.

adamstgBit
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August 22, 2014, 06:39:22 PM
 #10996

Don't the lower high's worry you then?

Well I am in general the type of person that honestly does not care how much things are valued in $hitpaper.

Proudly. Ever since 2006.

and for that reason i pray for 16$ silver b4 its all said and done.

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August 22, 2014, 06:54:15 PM
 #10997

Don't the lower high's worry you then?

Well I am in general the type of person that honestly does not care how much things are valued in $hitpaper.

Proudly. Ever since 2006.

Paging Melbustus.
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August 22, 2014, 07:05:28 PM
 #10998

no change here.  Bitcoin has devastated this asset:

http://i.imgur.com/dLlQyi1.png

https://www.goldbroker.com/en/news/paper-silver-market-250-times-size-physical-silver-market-526

What would you think happens when the 'tie' breaks, real is real, paper is worthless.

Think of  a scenario, let's say a position of metric ton of pure silver. Will have some value  Smiley
notme
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August 22, 2014, 07:08:26 PM
 #10999

no change here.  Bitcoin has devastated this asset:



https://www.goldbroker.com/en/news/paper-silver-market-250-times-size-physical-silver-market-526

What would you think happens when the 'tie' breaks, real is real, paper is worthless.

Think of  a scenario, let's say a position of metric ton of pure silver. Will have some value  Smiley

They can always paper over the paper with more paper.  Besides, silver is mostly worthless other than as a speculation.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
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August 22, 2014, 07:15:01 PM
 #11000

no change here.  Bitcoin has devastated this asset:

http://i.imgur.com/dLlQyi1.png

https://www.goldbroker.com/en/news/paper-silver-market-250-times-size-physical-silver-market-526

What would you think happens when the 'tie' breaks, real is real, paper is worthless.

Think of  a scenario, let's say a position of metric ton of pure silver. Will have some value  Smiley

They can always paper over the paper with more paper.  Besides, silver is mostly worthless other than as a speculation.

You havent do your homework dude.
https://images.angelpub.com/2014/08/23250/silver-usage-pie-chart.png

Most of the silver used in industry cannot be recycled.
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