Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[Ivanhoe]

this is interesting.  falllling registers here on the forum May 27, 2014 with last post Oct 4, 2014.

i didn't even notice this until now but it happens to match my theory that a coordinated selloff enabled by trolls started at the peak in June:

Here's another one.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=159160

little harder to explain his register date but quite suspicious that he stops posting on Oct 4.  they just disappeared (were dismissed).

There are lot's of account for sale, maybe this was one of those.
It's far fetched, but a possibility.

[cypherdoc]

here's the BearWhale address, which suggests to me the seller wasn't involved in a conspiracy:

[solex]

Well, my theory is just pointing out that placing the wall originally at 280 (where it was destabilizing the market), then moving to 320 (where it was getting action), then to 300 isn't rational *unless* you're trying to set up some OTC trade in the other direction and need a "stable" multi-hour average on Bitstamp as a pricing reference for the OTC trade. So to fit that with your theory, you could still argue that it was Pantera executing the final load-up via such an OTC trade, and the 30k wall was theirs and simply necessary for the price-fix. Still fits with your point asking who would trust an unregulated Slovenian exchange with 30kBTC...

Anyway, I honestly don't know what to think. I don't really understand moving the wall from $320 to $300 outside of the price-fix OTC-buy theory which seems a little complicated for my usual liking. But, as I repeatedly say, I'm not a trader, so I have little instinct for how much shenanigans like that actually happen. Maybe it's more common than I think.

6 hours on a Sunday is not enough time, nor even a possible time, to set up an OTC trade of that magnitude. 

those things take days, if not weeks to negotiate and setup for that amount.

if you look at the address and read Dan Moorehead's tweets, the 30K BTC were transferred to Bitstamp just before the wall went up on Sunday and the coins originating from that address were accumulated from April 2013.

That 30k sell looked like it was a panicked one-off decision, by a non-trader who was suffering from seeing a paper holding of $30m decrease steadily to $10m. Greed and fear all over again. The decline to $300 had a lot of people thinking that $200 or even $100 was imminent. It is reasonable that at least one of those people had a large holding and acted accordingly.

[N12]

this is interesting.  falllling registers here on the forum May 27, 2014 with last post Oct 4, 2014.

i didn't even notice this until now but it happens to match my theory that a coordinated selloff enabled by trolls started at the peak in June:

https://i.imgur.com/n4w5iuZ.png

Here's another one.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=159160

little harder to explain his register date but quite suspicious that he stops posting on Oct 4.  they just disappeared (were dismissed).

No offense, but you're such a conspiracy nut often times.

He was banned on that date. That's why he pops up with new accounts all the time. He's actually still posting, but he and his new posts just get nuked from the forum.

[Peter R]

This is the most plausible theory I've heard to date, Cypher.

But let me get this straight: you're suggesting that the 30k wall belonged to a panicking early adopter and was in fact the "dessert" that Pantera was after the entire time.  Correct?

So, basically, they got as much cheap coins as they could hope for, fired the trolls, and are now talking the price back up (hah maybe now that you posted this they'll do the opposite and take us down one more time.  Perhaps they'll scare some coins out of you next time )

[N12]

So, basically, they got as much cheap coins as they could hope for, fired the trolls, and are now talking the price back up (hah maybe now that you posted this they'll do the opposite and take us down one more time.  Perhaps they'll scare some coins out of you next time )

You did read my post, yes? It serves nothing to ignore reality (or at least an important piece of it) to uphold the narrative for a preconceived and wished for idea.

Time to move the goalposts.

[Ivanhoe]

Blitz is part of it

[N12]

Blitz is part of it

Exactly, and to make it more believable, I even created this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=809325.0

I just noticed that cypherdoc actually posted there. So he actually already knows that the most notorious of bearish trolls is actually still posting. Then again, perhaps the conspirator(s) still let that account post to maintain minimum plausibility. Right?

[Peter R]

So, basically, they got as much cheap coins as they could hope for, fired the trolls, and are now talking the price back up (hah maybe now that you posted this they'll do the opposite and take us down one more time.  Perhaps they'll scare some coins out of you next time )

You did read my post, yes? It serves nothing to ignore reality (or at least an important piece of it) to uphold the narrative for a preconceived and wished for idea.

Time to move the goalposts.

Yes I did read your post Blitz, in fact, I believe most of us knew that fallllling had been banned.  Cypher's point still stands, for there's been a sharp drop in the intensity of trolling since the 30k wall was eaten.  

Regardless of the trolls, what I like about the theory in particular (that I didn't know until now) are the details regarding Pantera's relationship with BitStamp.  This make two things more believable: (1) Pantera may have had some knowledge of the fiat balances that weekend on BitStamp as well as the propensity of the account holders to use them (giving Pantera confidence to nibble the wall rather than gulp it in a single bite thereby exposing their strategy), (2) Pantera would be more confident holding large balances on BitStamp than other investors.  

[N12]

Trolls are pro trend, they will always follow the price rather than lead. I don't believe in a big activity of paid actors on this forum. Trolls are typically just minor sadists who enjoy irritating others.

I also like the Pantera part. It's very believable to me that they had the ability to bite the wall on Sunday night/early Monday because they are investors in the exchange. However, Loaded made a post to the effect that his fiat had arrived around the time of buy. I'm too lazy to check the exact time of post and buy because I just don't much care who bought it. And again, don't forget that more than 2/3 of the 30k have likely not been eaten by a single actor, at least not in a single trade. 1) It was bought, 2) We can infer why it was bought, that's enough for my purposes.

[cypherdoc]

Blitz is part of it

Exactly, and to make it more believable, I even created this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=809325.0

I just noticed that cypherdoc actually posted there. So he actually already knows that the most notorious of bearish trolls is actually still posting. Then again, perhaps the conspirator(s) still let that account post to maintain minimum plausibility. Right?

just b/c you present a small piece of evidence about a certain ban i wasn't aware of, doesn't make the whole theory go out the window.

there has been a NOTICEABLE drop in the trolling posts since Sunday.  sure, there are a few guys floating around but they could just be altscam or POS proponents, who knows.

[N12]

Blitz is part of it

Exactly, and to make it more believable, I even created this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=809325.0

I just noticed that cypherdoc actually posted there. So he actually already knows that the most notorious of bearish trolls is actually still posting. Then again, perhaps the conspirator(s) still let that account post to maintain minimum plausibility. Right?

just b/c you present a small piece of evidence about a certain ban i wasn't aware of, doesn't make the whole theory go out the window.

there has been a NOTICEABLE drop in the trolling posts since Sunday.  sure, there are a few guys floating around but they could just be altscam or POS proponents, who knows.

More evidence? I forgot, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=159160 was also banned (temporarily). Name some others that suspiciously discontinued their activity, perhaps they too were banned recently?

PS: fallling is by far the worst spammer of the bunch, so I consider him the prime indicator in this matter.

[cypherdoc]

how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?

What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely.

It appeared to me that the last 12 - 14k of the wall was primarily scooped up by Loaded.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9100535#msg9100535

I watched the wall from the first dump, along with the WO thread, and the timing fit.  With nobody making outright claims, it seems reasonable given his history...

Loaded says this on Monday, the day after the wall got taken down.

Actually it was within a few minutes. 

how does fiat arrive on a Sunday night?  gox wires didn't work that way.  workers were off on weekends.

[cypherdoc]

Blitz is part of it

Exactly, and to make it more believable, I even created this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=809325.0

I just noticed that cypherdoc actually posted there. So he actually already knows that the most notorious of bearish trolls is actually still posting. Then again, perhaps the conspirator(s) still let that account post to maintain minimum plausibility. Right?

just b/c you present a small piece of evidence about a certain ban i wasn't aware of, doesn't make the whole theory go out the window.

there has been a NOTICEABLE drop in the trolling posts since Sunday.  sure, there are a few guys floating around but they could just be altscam or POS proponents, who knows.

More evidence? I forgot, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=159160 was also banned (temporarily). Name some others that suspiciously discontinued their activity, perhaps they too were banned recently?

PS: fallling is by far the worst spammer of the bunch, so I consider him the prime indicator in this matter.

how many of the trolls did you ban?  can you name them?

that doesn't negate falllling's registration date of May 27, 2014, btw.

[blaaaaacksuit]

how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?

What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely.

It appeared to me that the last 12 - 14k of the wall was primarily scooped up by Loaded.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9100535#msg9100535

I watched the wall from the first dump, along with the WO thread, and the timing fit.  With nobody making outright claims, it seems reasonable given his history...

Loaded says this on Monday, the day after the wall got taken down.

Actually it was within a few minutes. 

how does fiat arrive on a Sunday night?  gox wires didn't work that way.  workers were off on weekends.

Maybe it was monday in whatever part of the world he was in at that point.

[klee]

ok, i'm going to have to refine my conspiracy theory on the BearWhale.  he is a distraction.  i now think the main benefactor of a manufactured selloff was economic actor Pantera Capital.

let me further say, this type of analysis is purely in fun and based on anecdotes. i am not accusing them of anything and will be happy to be corrected.  if i'm right, i don't necessarily have anything against them for manipulating the market like i'm theorizing.  i just find this one of the more interesting events in Bitcoin history and find it fun to theorize how and why it happened:

developments since the selloff that have occurred after my original theory about it being a non-economic actor:

1.  Dan Moorehead @dan_pantera, the day after the selloff, comes out with a detailed series of tweets focusing attention on the movements of address 159SCycgn8weAy2XGUEhD6V1RTFni7E3iq convincing me that the 30K dumper was indeed a whale who simply capitulated to the selloff pressure:

https://twitter.com/dan_pantera

2.  Pantera Capital, 2 days after the selloff, issues not only one but two uber bullish reports on Bitcoin.  its Bitcoin vs Gold report unapologetically and unabashedly forecasting $4.3M/BTC.  they don't normally publish this frequently:

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Bitcoin-vs-Gold.pdf

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-September-2014.pdf

associated data and assumptions:

1.  @PanteraCapital & @RonGlantz popped up as my Twitter followers since spring/summer and i know they follow this thread.  here's the tinfoil stuff and it's truly not meant to feed my ego but since June, i've had the funny feeling that very often when i would put up a bullish post, it was immediately met with a selloff.  it got so bad that @kLee1977 told me "you bring bad luck!" to which i replied:

"@kLee1977 actually, u know wht? i bet those ask wall manipulators key off bulltards like me. long term tho, i'd bet on me "

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/510080984243765248

2.  the day of the selloff, Oct 5, i sent this tweet to @PanteraCapital @BitstampUSD @damijanmerlak & @nejc_kodric:

"hey @PanteraCapital. u guys r invested in @BitstampUSD. y don't u ask @damijanmerlak & @nejc_kodric whats goin on with the huge wall?"

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/518969201814683648

never got a response from any of them.  i would have expected at least a denial.

3.  i think since June, Pantera used it's known considerable BTC resources obtained in the early days of Bitcoin, to sell/short down the market with a bot and occasional 1000 BTC chunks, keying off known bulls like myself to knock the market down with the goal of causing a whale or whales to finally capitulate, at which time they'd buy back the sold coins or cover shorted coins back at a cheaper price, at what turned out to be in this case @$300.  i doubt they had a specific price point; they were simply hunting for a large selloff source from a weak whale.

4.  a large economic actor like Pantera could afford to hire forum and Reddit trolls to help talk down the price.  no matter what anyone says, this type of trolling is effective in destroying confidence.  it is also well known that when there are big price moves either way ppl come to these meeting places to find out what's going on.  the fact that Severro, antibitcoinconsortium, falllling, etc. have all abruptly disappeared since Sunday indicate to me they were on hire by someone with substantial resources to manipulate the market.

5.  Pantera Capital is the major investor in Bitstamp and clearly has a close relationship with its founders.  only they would have the resources and confidence to leave large amounts of BTC and fiat on an unregulated exchange awaiting opportunities, manufactured or otherwise, considering what happened to mtgox clients.  

now it's time for them to talk the price up with bullish reports.

i welcome any thoughts or criticisms.

Off topic: I could not RT you, I unfollowed and followed back and now I can! Weird 

[cypherdoc]

how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?

What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely.

It appeared to me that the last 12 - 14k of the wall was primarily scooped up by Loaded.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9100535#msg9100535

I watched the wall from the first dump, along with the WO thread, and the timing fit.  With nobody making outright claims, it seems reasonable given his history...

Loaded says this on Monday, the day after the wall got taken down.

Actually it was within a few minutes. 

how does fiat arrive on a Sunday night?  gox wires didn't work that way.  workers were off on weekends.

Maybe it was monday in whatever part of the world he was in at that point.

who knows how to translate Slovenian time to forum time?

anyways, all this guy Loaded says is that his fiat has arrived.  and from that everyone assumes he is the one who took down the wall?

[explorer]

how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?

What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely.

It appeared to me that the last 12 - 14k of the wall was primarily scooped up by Loaded.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9100535#msg9100535

I watched the wall from the first dump, along with the WO thread, and the timing fit.  With nobody making outright claims, it seems reasonable given his history...

Loaded says this on Monday, the day after the wall got taken down.

Actually it was within a few minutes. 

how does fiat arrive on a Sunday night?  gox wires didn't work that way.  workers were off on weekends.

Midnight PST (my time) is what  9 or 10 AM in Europe?  Entirely plausible, in my book.

[cypherdoc]

Off topic: I could not RT you, I unfollowed and followed back and now I can! Weird 

Stephen Gornick pm'd me this morning and informed me about the retweet problem.  so i figured out how to undo that setting.  sorry!

i vaguely recall someone using the initials "RT" in a message, was that you?  i just realized that means "retweet".

[N12]

anyways, all this guy Loaded says is that his fiat has arrived.  and from that everyone assumes he is the one who took down the wall?

Fine, I'll do it. Loaded posted 07:12:33 UTC

Buy was between 7:05 and 07:10 UTC (too lazy to narrow down further), therefore it isn't proof. Too bad, now we will never know for sure.