Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

I think Miscreanity should start a subscription service.

what happened to the Roadrunner?

I've been reading his posts, not yours. 

then you should put me on ignore.

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[cypherdoc]

I think Miscreanity should start a subscription service.

what happened to the Roadrunner?

I've been reading his posts, not yours. 

then you should put me on ignore.

please?

and i will test you.

[tvbcof]

General Comment: New more compact historic form.  Enjoy!

How about doing a comparison of prices starting from six months ago instead?

Or are you intentionally trolling with your cherry-picked datapoints?

Purposely cherry-picking.  It's something of a trend on this thread.

care to give an example of this so called "cherry picking"?  or just another careless comment?  
...

Been there, done that.  What are you, some sort of a masochist?

[cypherdoc]

General Comment: New more compact historic form.  Enjoy!

How about doing a comparison of prices starting from six months ago instead?

Or are you intentionally trolling with your cherry-picked datapoints?

Purposely cherry-picking.  It's something of a trend on this thread.

care to give an example of this so called "cherry picking"?  or just another careless comment?  
...

Been there, done that.  What are you, some sort of a masochist?

you haven't done anything much less prove anything.  

your problem is that you carelessly throw out criticisms and then are not willing to go back in the record and prove them.  you hide behind your laziness as if that's some sort of excuse.

you can start with my subscription thread and prove those examples as cherry picking if you will.  there are lots of ppl who have been following my posts in detail since last summer and know that in general my calls have been correct.  they aren't stepping up to support you.

i won't always be correct esp. in the calls on Bitcoin but i've got time and am confident those will play out too.

[the joint]

I think Miscreanity should start a subscription service.

what happened to the Roadrunner?

I've been reading his posts, not yours.  

then you should put me on ignore.

I don't dislike you, and I've read many other intelligent posts of yours.

But, you rubbed me the wrong way with your arrogant attitude.  I would much prefer to learn about precious metals from someone who is not arrogant as they will be less likely to concede to confirmation bias and would likely remain more objective in their analysis of the data.

1)  Your thread title is dubious as it does not specify a time-frame and this makes it all the more convenient for you to pick data corresponding to specific time-frames to make it appear as though you know what you're talking about.

2)  You fail to recognize (or at least you underestimate) the interdependence of the Eurozone markets and the American markets in a global economy.  Well, at least that's what I see from the 5-6 pages of this thread that I read.

3)  You haven't even been correct.  Gold and Bitcoin have been performing similarly since the date of this thread's creation.

4)  Gold has, for the past 6,000 years, been THE source of financial refuge for virtually every civilization.  When currencies fail, gold is the next best thing.  Miscreanity hit the nail on the head when he said BTC isn't ready yet.  BTC is holding at $5 purely due to speculation; you know this, I know this.  YOU are speculating, and with respect to gold, you are doing so in stark contrast to history.

5)  You are a stakeholder in that which you advocate.  You put your money in BTC, and it would be just dandy for you if everyone cashed out of PMs and invested in BTC.  AND you have a subscription service!!!  Of COURSE you are going to maintain that you are correct because who the hell wants to buy a subscription service from someone that isn't correct most/all of the time?

6)  This one's a question.  Ask yourself this seriously; it's rhetorical.  By any chance, does the fact that you actually have subscribers give you the impression that you are more correct?

[the joint]

As gold shoots to 1575!!   

I can do it too, see?

[tvbcof]

General Comment: New more compact historic form.  Enjoy!

How about doing a comparison of prices starting from six months ago instead?

Or are you intentionally trolling with your cherry-picked datapoints?

Purposely cherry-picking.  It's something of a trend on this thread.

care to give an example of this so called "cherry picking"?  or just another careless comment?  
...

Been there, done that.  What are you, some sort of a masochist?

you haven't done anything much less prove anything.  

your problem is that you carelessly throw out criticisms and then are not willing to go back in the record and prove them.  you hide behind your laziness as if that's some sort of excuse.

...

It might be worth noting that I made no specific accusations, much less any directed at you specifically.  That was not entirely an accident.  Yet you seem to take it as a personal affront anyway.  Hmmm...  Bit of a guilty conscience peeking out there?

[cypherdoc]

I think Miscreanity should start a subscription service.

what happened to the Roadrunner?

I've been reading his posts, not yours.  

then you should put me on ignore.

I don't dislike you, and I've read many other intelligent posts of yours.

But, you rubbed me the wrong way with your arrogant attitude.  I would much prefer to learn about precious metals from someone who is not arrogant as they will be less likely to concede to confirmation bias and would likely remain more objective in their analysis of the data.

first of all, the "USD shooting up" comment is a regular post i've made before you arrived on the scene and wasn't directed at you.  if you took the time to read the thread you'd have understood this. also, i am old enough to be your father.

also, etiquette demands that you read the thread before asking questions that have been addressed numerous times here already.

1)  Your thread title is dubious as it does not specify a time-frame and this makes it all the more convenient for you to pick data corresponding to specific time-frames to make it appear as though you know what you're talking about.

i know it doesn't specify a time so why does Silverbox hold me to the start date of this thread for his Update comparison?  its a general direction call i started back on 8/9/11 in the "Gold: I smell a trap" thread.

2)  You fail to recognize (or at least you underestimate) the interdependence of the Eurozone markets and the American markets in a global economy.  Well, at least that's what I see from the 5-6 pages of this thread that I read.

no way.  my subscribers know that i talk about that all the time.

3)  You haven't even been correct.  Gold and Bitcoin have been performing similarly since the date of this thread's creation.

gold/silver and the miners are collapsing and i think it will get worse.  

4)  Gold has, for the past 6,000 years, been THE source of financial refuge for virtually every civilization.  When currencies fail, gold is the next best thing.  Miscreanity hit the nail on the head when he said BTC isn't ready yet.  BTC is holding at $5 purely due to speculation; you know this, I know this.  YOU are speculating, and with respect to gold, you are doing so in stark contrast to history.

and i think you're overestimating this.  

5)  You are a stakeholder in that which you advocate.  You put your money in BTC, and it would be just dandy for you if everyone cashed out of PMs and invested in BTC.  AND you have a subscription service!!!  Of COURSE you are going to maintain that you are correct because who the hell wants to buy a subscription service from someone that isn't correct most/all of the time?

my subscription service deals with both stock and Bitcoin investing.  i just took a small survey and got raving results for my call of this stock market top.  

btw, tvbcof, how about my call on this stock mkt top?

[bitcool]

Cool story, but will this happen in our lifetimes?

It seems to me that the intent of the fancy "IT IS ALL MANIPULATED! MARKET IS RIGGED!" stories is about getting people to hold the metal bag when they have no other option than the paper price (where can I sell gold for higher? I would like to take that opportunity up, please), so their wealth is being drained.

So basically, the gold manipulation conspiracy itself is a conspiracy? GC² 

[tvbcof]

...
btw, tvbcof, how about my call on this stock mkt top?

Didn't notice.  As I've said, I don't give two shits about the stock market or any form of paper.  But that you might have suspected the stock market being overbought does not make you a financial wizard in my book.  Seems like one of the bigger no-brainers to me.

[notme]

1)  Your thread title is dubious as it does not specify a time-frame and this makes it all the more convenient for you to pick data corresponding to specific time-frames to make it appear as though you know what you're talking about.

2)  You fail to recognize (or at least you underestimate) the interdependence of the Eurozone markets and the American markets in a global economy.  Well, at least that's what I see from the 5-6 pages of this thread that I read.

3)  You haven't even been correct.  Gold and Bitcoin have been performing similarly since the date of this thread's creation.

4)  Gold has, for the past 6,000 years, been THE source of financial refuge for virtually every civilization.  When currencies fail, gold is the next best thing.  Miscreanity hit the nail on the head when he said BTC isn't ready yet.  BTC is holding at $5 purely due to speculation; you know this, I know this.  YOU are speculating, and with respect to gold, you are doing so in stark contrast to history.

5)  You are a stakeholder in that which you advocate.  You put your money in BTC, and it would be just dandy for you if everyone cashed out of PMs and invested in BTC.  AND you have a subscription service!!!  Of COURSE you are going to maintain that you are correct because who the hell wants to buy a subscription service from someone that isn't correct most/all of the time?

Cyperdoc beat me to a reply, but here's mine anyway... maybe it will mean a little more coming from someone else.

1) Since the beginning of the thread cypherdoc has been consistent that his time frame is many months to years.  It's been two months.

2) You're wrong.  He frequently discusses interdependence of various markets in his newsletter.

3) True, but again, he has been clear about a timeframe on the order of many months to years.

4) USD isn't failing, it's rocketing at the moment.  Sure, other currencies are in trouble, but people trust the USD more than they trust governments/banks to give up their rigged game and return to gold.  Gold rises on USD inflation, not deflation.  I will concede that bitcoin isn't ready and cypher is a little more bullish than I am, but again he speaks from a longer term perspective.

5) Fair point.  It doesn't make him wrong though.

Yes, cypherdoc can be cocky, but I have observed him pick quite a few corners in various markets with amazing accuracy.  He saw them coming with enough time to share the knowledge and present a very convincing case.  His methodology is good, and he's more than willing to teach anyone who can deal with his confidence without being put off.  What does picking on his personality gain you guys?  Embracing it has made me over 20% in the last two months.  Of course, I did my own due diligence and sought other opinions and research.  I wouldn't suggest taking anyone's word as gospel.

[silverbox]

General Comment: New more compact historic form.  Enjoy!

How about doing a comparison of prices starting from six months ago instead?

Or are you intentionally trolling with your cherry-picked datapoints?

Purposely cherry-picking.  It's something of a trend on this thread.

Hey, Silverbox.  Where's your daily report.  It would be interesting to note whether Cypherdoc was 'King for a day'... generously characterizing yesterday's brief performance metrics as 'right'...

Ok, I normally only do it every 2-3 days, but since us gold bugs had such a good day


this thread was started 3/13

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690.


today 5/17

Bitcoin 5.09   (down ~6%)

Gold 1575  (down ~7%)

BTC still isn't up .  Gold is ever so slightly underperforming btc.


AAPL 530  (I'm looking for a fat lady.. and she better be singing..)

[cypherdoc]

...
btw, tvbcof, how about my call on this stock mkt top?

Didn't notice.  As I've said, I don't give two shits about the stock market or any form of paper.  But that you might have suspected the stock market being overbought does not make you a financial wizard in my book.  Seems like one of the bigger no-brainers to me.

then you have no idea how hard it is to call a top or bottom.  and i accept the fact that you might not care.  you yourself said you're not a professional but there are those of us who are.

just b/c you don't care doesn't mean that technical analysis doesn't work or that there can't be ppl who do it well.

there are alot of ppl that do care though b/c the swings in markets can be >50% and a lot of money can be made playing the swings both up and down.

sure, if you just want to buy your gold and go hide in a hole thats fine.  there are those of us though that are more nuanced than you.

[tvbcof]

1)  Your thread title is dubious as it does not specify a time-frame and this makes it all the more convenient for you to pick data corresponding to specific time-frames to make it appear as though you know what you're talking about.

i know it doesn't specify a time so why does Silverbox hold me to the start date of this thread for his Update comparison?  its a general direction call i started back on 8/9/11 in the "Gold: I smell a trap" thread.

Another Score:  08/09/2011 -> 05/17/2012
          then          now       delta mult
BTC    10.00         5.09       + 0.51
Gold    1750         1574      + 0.91

I humbly bow to your greatness, oh wise and powerful one

[the joint]

1)  Your thread title is dubious as it does not specify a time-frame and this makes it all the more convenient for you to pick data corresponding to specific time-frames to make it appear as though you know what you're talking about.

2)  You fail to recognize (or at least you underestimate) the interdependence of the Eurozone markets and the American markets in a global economy.  Well, at least that's what I see from the 5-6 pages of this thread that I read.

3)  You haven't even been correct.  Gold and Bitcoin have been performing similarly since the date of this thread's creation.

4)  Gold has, for the past 6,000 years, been THE source of financial refuge for virtually every civilization.  When currencies fail, gold is the next best thing.  Miscreanity hit the nail on the head when he said BTC isn't ready yet.  BTC is holding at $5 purely due to speculation; you know this, I know this.  YOU are speculating, and with respect to gold, you are doing so in stark contrast to history.

5)  You are a stakeholder in that which you advocate.  You put your money in BTC, and it would be just dandy for you if everyone cashed out of PMs and invested in BTC.  AND you have a subscription service!!!  Of COURSE you are going to maintain that you are correct because who the hell wants to buy a subscription service from someone that isn't correct most/all of the time?

Cyperdoc beat me to a reply, but here's mine anyway... maybe it will mean a little more coming from someone else.

1) Since the beginning of the thread cypherdoc has been consistent that his time frame is many months to years.  It's been two months.

2) You're wrong.  He frequently discusses interdependence of various markets in his newsletter.

3) True, but again, he has been clear about a timeframe on the order of many months to years.

4) USD isn't failing, it's rocketing at the moment.  Sure, other currencies are in trouble, but people trust the USD more than they trust governments/banks to give up their rigged game and return to gold.  Gold rises on USD inflation, not deflation.  I will concede that bitcoin isn't ready and cypher is a little more bullish than I am, but again he speaks from a longer term perspective.

5) Fair point.  It doesn't make him wrong though.

Yes, cypherdoc can be cocky, but I have observed him pick quite a few corners in various markets with amazing accuracy.  He saw them coming with enough time to share the knowledge and present a very convincing case.  His methodology is good, and he's more than willing to teach anyone who can deal with his confidence without being put off.  What does picking on his personality gain you guys?  Embracing it has made me over 20% in the last two months.  Of course, I did my own due diligence and sought other opinions and research.  I wouldn't suggest taking anyone's word as gospel.

1.)  Ok.  If his time frame is "many months to years," then we can't possibly assume that anything that has happened in the past 2 months since this thread's creation is positive correlated with his prediction.

2.)  Fair enough.  As I said, I only read a few pages of this thread.  I understand this makes for uninformed assumptions, but he killed all of my motivation to go back and read it all.  He shouldn't feel bad about this, though.  I'm cocky and stubborn myself so I understand where he's coming from.

3.)  Fair enough.  Time will tell.  I do genuinely hope that he is correct for his own sake and for his subscribers'.

4.)  Rocketing?  That's going overboard.  Rocketing since when?  Gold 'rocketed' 2% overnight.  It's also 'rocketed' ~800% in the last decade.  Besides, if he's speaking from a long-term perspective, that perspective would also indicate that the US dollar has been falling like a brick.  Rocketing in this case is from a short-term perspective.

5.)  True, it doesn't make him wrong.  But I would suggest that it is more likely to make him wrong than if he were not a stakeholder.

[cypherdoc]

6)  This one's a question.  Ask yourself this seriously; it's rhetorical.  By any chance, does the fact that you actually have subscribers give you the impression that you are more correct?

i've had my subscription service for 47 mere days.  go back to the beginning of my subscription thread and go thru the examples of the calls i've made.  all were made way before the subscription service, ok?  it doesn't take subscribers to verify the accuracy of the predictions.

feel free to comb thru my posts to see if i've cherry picked or fudged those calls. i guarantee you that i didn't and would've been called out if i had.  how do i know this?  b/c there are literally hundreds of ppl who were following the "Gold: I smell a trap" thread and are following this one in detail.  go look at the number of views. AND when i take a position i don't vacillate like other analysts; everyone knows what i think and can judge from there.

the subscription service deals with my methodology and teaching it to readers. it forms the basis of what i recommend.  i know they've found it helpful.  i spend most of my efforts there, not here, so it might not be surprising if my analysis here seems incomplete.

[silverbox]

 .. As I said, I only read a few pages of this thread. ..

Aww, you'll miss out on the story of my dog!! lol

I still haven't finished it, lol.

[tvbcof]

...
btw, tvbcof, how about my call on this stock mkt top?

Didn't notice.  As I've said, I don't give two shits about the stock market or any form of paper.  But that you might have suspected the stock market being overbought does not make you a financial wizard in my book.  Seems like one of the bigger no-brainers to me.

then you have no idea how hard it is to call a top or bottom.  and i accept the fact that you might not care.  you yourself said you're not a professional but there are those of us who are.

just b/c you don't care doesn't mean that technical analysis doesn't work or that there can't be ppl who do it well.

there are alot of ppl that do care though b/c the swings in markets can be >50% and a lot of money can be made playing the swings both up and down.

I've never listened to 'financial professionals' and have never regretted it.  The only thing standing between 95% of day-trader types and homelessness is 'time' in my observation, and having been in the middle of the dot-com bubble I've certainly made some observations here.

sure, if you just want to buy your gold and go hide in a hole thats fine.  there are those of us though that are more nuanced than you.

(On a serious note...)

I've stated publicly that I've sunk 5 figures into Bitcoin and hold my position and am currently at about a 20% loss.  Most likely I'll be the first to say so if/when I adjust it since it is not my nature to make shit up for the purposes of influencing the market.  I personally doubt that doing this works very well, but that's only part of the reason.

I would be utterly delighted to see Bitcoin take off both because it would enrich me personally and because I think the general solution has a damn good chance of being a big positive for humanity.

I also have enough of a technical understanding of the Bitcoin implementation to have some serious questions about certain aspects of it.  Thus, even if I do want to see the solution take off, I also would feel uncomfortable pumping it as a primary means of wealth preservation.  It's a side-bet for me, and I earnestly feel that it should be the same for almost everyone else.

Parenthetically, you've never heard me tell anyone that they should be as overweight in PMs as I am.  This is both because I am not qualified to give financial advice and also I don't believe that my strategy is appropriate for most people.

(edit: s/bit/big/ in an important place.)

[notme]

1.)  Ok.  If his time frame is "many months to years," then we can't possibly assume that anything that has happened in the past 2 months since this thread's creation is positive correlated with his prediction.

2.)  Fair enough.  As I said, I only read a few pages of this thread.  I understand this makes for uninformed assumptions, but he killed all of my motivation to go back and read it all.  He shouldn't feel bad about this, though.  I'm cocky and stubborn myself so I understand where he's coming from.

3.)  Fair enough.  Time will tell.  I do genuinely hope that he is correct for his own sake and for his subscribers'.

4.)  Rocketing?  That's going overboard.  Rocketing since when?  Gold 'rocketed' 2% overnight.  It's also 'rocketed' ~800% in the last decade.  Besides, if he's speaking from a long-term perspective, that perspective would also indicate that the US dollar has been falling like a brick.  Rocketing in this case is from a short-term perspective.

5.)  True, it doesn't make him wrong.  But I would suggest that it is more likely to make him wrong than if he were not a stakeholder.

1) Not sure what you mean.  Can you rephrase?
2-3) Nothing to add.
4) That's more my wording than his.  It has been rising for 14 days straight, the longest streak since 1985.  IMO, we will see more rising than falling over the next 8-12 months.  Apple also 'rocketed' over 5500% in the last decade, Bitcoin rocketed several thousand percent last year.  Apple is down 17% from its peak and Bitcoin is down 84% from its peak.  Even with it's counter-trend rally today gold is down 17% from it's peak.  What goes up must come down, especially when it is pumped up with QE.  Now that the free money is drying up, who's going to buy?
5) I would disagree with that.  If he were not a stakeholder he would pay far less attention.

[miscreanity]

Cool story, but will this happen in our lifetimes?

It seems to me that the intent of the fancy "IT IS ALL MANIPULATED! MARKET IS RIGGED!" stories is about getting people to hold the metal bag when they have no other option than the paper price (where can I sell gold for higher? I would like to take that opportunity up, please), so their wealth is being drained.

Yes - it's already in progress.

Blinking takes about a tenth of a second, which is about 2.5 trillion times slower than it takes for graphite to phase transition from solid to plasma. The process for gold to be revalued isn't as temporally extreme relative to our perception, but it is still a generational event on the order of decades (a galactic blink); we just happen to be witnessing the crescendo of this cycle.

'Private' does not mean individuals... In this case it is mostly off-the-books government holdings.

Yes, there is plenty of gold in shadow balances, but not under the direct auspices of governments themselves. Whether organisations, individuals or familial legacies, the giant owners of "old gold" do not allow control of their assets to be held by politicians. That would be too great a liability.  These power bases may pledge support, but they retain control.

So basically, the gold manipulation conspiracy itself is a conspiracy? GC² 

GC² 

It's the difference between seeing a symptom and determining the cause. The gold melodrama is part of an even greater theme involving control (which is itself a paradox).

5) I would disagree with that.  If he were not a stakeholder he would pay far less attention.

Right there - having skin in the game largely negates moral hazard.

I would be making use of cyph's subscription service if I were still doing anything with paper. There's been more than enough of a track record to prove solid results, and that's what matters. For me, it'd be like outsourcing my own trading. I've used other services in the past, and may eventually make use of Bitcoin trading services.

Anyhow, the only thing we really disagree on is physical precious metals.