Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[jimbobway]

ok, i'm going to have to refine my conspiracy theory on the BearWhale.  he is a distraction.  i now think the main benefactor of a manufactured selloff was economic actor Pantera Capital.

...

Super duper speculation.  Congratulations.  You win jimbobway's award for most speculative post for identifying the BearWhale! ;-)

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[Luxasd]

ok, i'm going to have to refine my conspiracy theory on the BearWhale.  he is a distraction.  i now think the main benefactor of a manufactured selloff was economic actor Pantera Capital.

So crazy that it might actually be true.

[justusranvier]

3.  i think since June, Pantera used it's known considerable BTC resources obtained in the early days of Bitcoin, to sell/short down the market with a bot and occasional 1000 BTC chunks, keying off known bulls like myself to knock the market down with the goal of causing a whale or whales to finally capitulate, at which time they'd buy back the sold coins or cover shorted coins back at a cheaper price, at what turned out to be in this case @$300.  i doubt they had a specific price point; they were simply hunting for a large selloff source from a weak whale.

4.  a large economic actor like Pantera could afford to hire forum and Reddit trolls to help talk down the price.  no matter what anyone says, this type of trolling is effective in destroying confidence.  it is also well known that when there are big price moves either way ppl come to these meeting places to find out what's going on.  the fact that Severro, antibitcoinconsortium, falllling, etc. have all abruptly disappeared since Sunday indicate to me they were on hire by someone with substantial resources to manipulate the market.

5.  Pantera Capital is the major investor in Bitstamp and clearly has a close relationship with its founders.  only they would have the resources and confidence to leave large amounts of BTC and fiat on an unregulated exchange awaiting opportunities, manufactured or otherwise, considering what happened to mtgox clients.  

now it's time for them to talk the price up with bullish reports.

i welcome any thoughts or criticisms.

How could they guarantee a positive ROI, and by that I mean how sure could they be that paying the hired trolls and selling off on the exchange would result in them holding more bitcoins than before?

I suppose they'd be in a position to know of anyone else had substantial USD reserves on Bitstamp who could buy the coins in front of them.

[cypherdoc]

3.  i think since June, Pantera used it's known considerable BTC resources obtained in the early days of Bitcoin, to sell/short down the market with a bot and occasional 1000 BTC chunks, keying off known bulls like myself to knock the market down with the goal of causing a whale or whales to finally capitulate, at which time they'd buy back the sold coins or cover shorted coins back at a cheaper price, at what turned out to be in this case @$300.  i doubt they had a specific price point; they were simply hunting for a large selloff source from a weak whale.

4.  a large economic actor like Pantera could afford to hire forum and Reddit trolls to help talk down the price.  no matter what anyone says, this type of trolling is effective in destroying confidence.  it is also well known that when there are big price moves either way ppl come to these meeting places to find out what's going on.  the fact that Severro, antibitcoinconsortium, falllling, etc. have all abruptly disappeared since Sunday indicate to me they were on hire by someone with substantial resources to manipulate the market.

5.  Pantera Capital is the major investor in Bitstamp and clearly has a close relationship with its founders.  only they would have the resources and confidence to leave large amounts of BTC and fiat on an unregulated exchange awaiting opportunities, manufactured or otherwise, considering what happened to mtgox clients.  

now it's time for them to talk the price up with bullish reports.

i welcome any thoughts or criticisms.

How could they guarantee a positive ROI, and by that I mean how sure could they be that paying the hired trolls and selling off on the exchange would result in them holding more bitcoins than before?

I suppose they'd be in a position to know of anyone else had substantial USD reserves on Bitstamp who could buy the coins in front of them.

of course this is all conjecture but who would be in a better position to attempt something like this?  yes, it is risky, but that is how major gains are made.  and they've been around for a long time so we know they have lots of BTC.

one of the big questions flying around during the selloff was who would keep all this fiat on Bitstamp to buy the wall?  i think it's a good question and can only be answered by assuming a related entity like Pantera.

[Adrian-x]

3.  i think since June, Pantera used it's known considerable BTC resources obtained in the early days of Bitcoin, to sell/short down the market with a bot and occasional 1000 BTC chunks, keying off known bulls like myself to knock the market down with the goal of causing a whale or whales to finally capitulate, at which time they'd buy back the sold coins or cover shorted coins back at a cheaper price, at what turned out to be in this case @$300.  i doubt they had a specific price point; they were simply hunting for a large selloff source from a weak whale.

4.  a large economic actor like Pantera could afford to hire forum and Reddit trolls to help talk down the price.  no matter what anyone says, this type of trolling is effective in destroying confidence.  it is also well known that when there are big price moves either way ppl come to these meeting places to find out what's going on.  the fact that Severro, antibitcoinconsortium, falllling, etc. have all abruptly disappeared since Sunday indicate to me they were on hire by someone with substantial resources to manipulate the market.

5.  Pantera Capital is the major investor in Bitstamp and clearly has a close relationship with its founders.  only they would have the resources and confidence to leave large amounts of BTC and fiat on an unregulated exchange awaiting opportunities, manufactured or otherwise, considering what happened to mtgox clients.  

now it's time for them to talk the price up with bullish reports.

i welcome any thoughts or criticisms.

How could they guarantee a positive ROI, and by that I mean how sure could they be that paying the hired trolls and selling off on the exchange would result in them holding more bitcoins than before?

I suppose they'd be in a position to know of anyone else had substantial USD reserves on Bitstamp who could buy the coins in front of them.

they don't, they risked real BTC - and I now have some   but in the Bitcoin world if they are wrong they are out, unlike the fiat world where you get to reset and play again.  

[cypherdoc]

who says the the Fed and the FOMC don't watch the stock mkt?  today's dovish statement has to be a related to this:

[Melbustus]

...<pantera manipulation theory>...

Maybe you can merge that theory with my OTC-buy theory?

Didn't he first put the wall up at $280, take it down for an hour or two, then put it back at $320? And it was getting nibbled at $320 too. Then it disappeared and came back at $300, where it obviously got eaten until gone. I really don't understand why he moved it from $320 to $300 given that it was getting action at $320...*iff* he was (even poorly) rationally trying to price-maximize.

Obviously tossing up a single 30k wall doesn't make too much sense for someone who's primary objective was rationally selling that stash. But I can maybe buy the theory of an irrational/undisciplined/freaked-out holder *except* for the move from $320 to $300, since there was indeed stable action at $320.

The only fully rational motivation I can see is if he was trying to achieve a low but stable price for a period of hours during which to secure an OTC deal in the other direction. He tried $280, but it was unstably crashing the price, so he tried $320. He got good interest there with a stable price, so he decided to see if he could do better and keep things stable at $300. Price pegged right up against the wall without crashing, so he stuck with it, and priced a bigger buy deal on OTC based on a stable price of $300. ...

Who knows... Not all players are rational, so it could be anything. Whatever; even the big trades are insignificant noise in the long run.

[blaaaaacksuit]

ok, i'm going to have to refine my conspiracy theory on the BearWhale.  he is a distraction.  i now think the main benefactor of a manufactured selloff was economic actor Pantera Capital.

let me further say, this type of analysis is purely in fun and based on anecdotes. i am not accusing them of anything and will be happy to be corrected.  if i'm right, i don't necessarily have anything against them for manipulating the market like i'm theorizing.  i just find this one of the more interesting events in Bitcoin history and find it fun to theorize how and why it happened:

developments since the selloff that have occurred after my original theory about it being a non-economic actor:

1.  Dan Moorehead @dan_pantera, the day after the selloff, comes out with a detailed series of tweets focusing attention on the movements of address 159SCycgn8weAy2XGUEhD6V1RTFni7E3iq convincing me that the 30K dumper was indeed a whale who simply capitulated to the selloff pressure:

https://twitter.com/dan_pantera

2.  Pantera Capital, 2 days after the selloff, issues not only one but two uber bullish reports on Bitcoin.  its Bitcoin vs Gold report unapologetically and unabashedly forecasting $4.3M/BTC.  they don't normally publish this frequently:

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Bitcoin-vs-Gold.pdf

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-September-2014.pdf

associated data and assumptions:

1.  @PanteraCapital & @RonGlantz popped up as my Twitter followers since spring/summer and i know they follow this thread.  here's the tinfoil stuff and it's truly not meant to feed my ego but since June, i've had the funny feeling that very often when i would put up a bullish post, it was immediately met with a selloff.  it got so bad that @kLee1977 told me "you bring bad luck!" to which i replied:

"@kLee1977 actually, u know wht? i bet those ask wall manipulators key off bulltards like me. long term tho, i'd bet on me "

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/510080984243765248

2.  the day of the selloff, Oct 5, i sent this tweet to @PanteraCapital @BitstampUSD @damijanmerlak & @nejc_kodric:

"hey @PanteraCapital. u guys r invested in @BitstampUSD. y don't u ask @damijanmerlak & @nejc_kodric whats goin on with the huge wall?"

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/518969201814683648

never got a response from any of them.  i would have expected at least a denial.

3.  i think since June, Pantera used it's known considerable BTC resources obtained in the early days of Bitcoin, to sell/short down the market with a bot and occasional 1000 BTC chunks, keying off known bulls like myself to knock the market down with the goal of causing a whale or whales to finally capitulate, at which time they'd buy back the sold coins or cover shorted coins back at a cheaper price, at what turned out to be in this case @$300.  i doubt they had a specific price point; they were simply hunting for a large selloff source from a weak whale.

4.  a large economic actor like Pantera could afford to hire forum and Reddit trolls to help talk down the price.  no matter what anyone says, this type of trolling is effective in destroying confidence.  it is also well known that when there are big price moves either way ppl come to these meeting places to find out what's going on.  the fact that Severro, antibitcoinconsortium, falllling, etc. have all abruptly disappeared since Sunday indicate to me they were on hire by someone with substantial resources to manipulate the market.

5.  Pantera Capital is the major investor in Bitstamp and clearly has a close relationship with its founders.  only they would have the resources and confidence to leave large amounts of BTC and fiat on an unregulated exchange awaiting opportunities, manufactured or otherwise, considering what happened to mtgox clients.  

now it's time for them to talk the price up with bullish reports.

i welcome any thoughts or criticisms.

If this we're the case I would think that 30K wall would have been eaten much faster (by pantera), but as far as I can tell it was chipped away by many "smaller" buyers.  I can't help but think pantera would have just panic bought the whole block if all this was the case.

[cypherdoc]

...<pantera manipulation theory>...

Maybe you can merge that theory with my OTC-buy theory?

Didn't he first put the wall up at $280, take it down for an hour or two, then put it back at $320? And it was getting nibbled at $320 too. Then it disappeared and came back at $300, where it obviously got eaten until gone. I really don't understand why he moved it from $320 to $300 given that it was getting action at $320...*iff* he was (even poorly) rationally trying to price-maximize.

Obviously tossing up a single 30k wall doesn't make too much sense for someone who's primary objective was rationally selling that stash. But I can maybe buy the theory of an irrational/undisciplined/freaked-out holder *except* for the move from $320 to $300, since there was indeed stable action at $320.

The only fully rational motivation I can see is if he was trying to achieve a low but stable price for a period of hours during which to secure an OTC deal in the other direction. He tried $280, but it was unstably crashing the price, so he tried $320. He got good interest there with a stable price, so he decided to see if he could do better and keep things stable at $300. Price pegged right up against the wall without crashing, so he stuck with it, and priced a bigger buy deal on OTC based on a stable price of $300. ...

Who knows... Not all players are rational, so it could be anything. Whatever; even the big trades are insignificant noise in the long run.

i think you have to back up one step and explain the inexplicable selloff since June in the face of all this good news.  and as someone who follows price quite closely using btccharts as well as other tools, much of the selling has seemed unnatural, forced, and timed.  it really looked like someone looking to force a capitulation.

the abrupt appearance and now disappearance of the trolls needs explaining as well.

[neilol-real]

...<pantera manipulation theory>...

Maybe you can merge that theory with my OTC-buy theory?

Didn't he first put the wall up at $280, take it down for an hour or two, then put it back at $320? And it was getting nibbled at $320 too. Then it disappeared and came back at $300, where it obviously got eaten until gone. I really don't understand why he moved it from $320 to $300 given that it was getting action at $320...*iff* he was (even poorly) rationally trying to price-maximize.

Obviously tossing up a single 30k wall doesn't make too much sense for someone who's primary objective was rationally selling that stash. But I can maybe buy the theory of an irrational/undisciplined/freaked-out holder *except* for the move from $320 to $300, since there was indeed stable action at $320.

The only fully rational motivation I can see is if he was trying to achieve a low but stable price for a period of hours during which to secure an OTC deal in the other direction. He tried $280, but it was unstably crashing the price, so he tried $320. He got good interest there with a stable price, so he decided to see if he could do better and keep things stable at $300. Price pegged right up against the wall without crashing, so he stuck with it, and priced a bigger buy deal on OTC based on a stable price of $300. ...

Who knows... Not all players are rational, so it could be anything. Whatever; even the big trades are insignificant noise in the long run.

My thoughts were around a pre-agreed contract resolving on that day for the weighted average bitstamp price for the day.. could have been a large bet / futures contract / OTC trade. They wouldn't have been able to secure many coins on Bitstamp  under the $300 wall so idk about the manipulation idea.

[cypherdoc]

If this we're the case I would think that 30K wall would have been eaten much faster (by pantera), but as far as I can tell it was chipped away by many "smaller" buyers.  I can't help but think pantera would have just panic bought the whole block if all this was the case.

that's a good point.  in fact, i was right there with everyone encouraging a group effort to knock it down.

of course, it's possible that Pantera was in fact buying it in small, medium, and larger chunks along with the final takedown.

[cypherdoc]

how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?

[N12]

how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?

What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely.

[blaaaaacksuit]

If this we're the case I would think that 30K wall would have been eaten much faster (by pantera), but as far as I can tell it was chipped away by many "smaller" buyers.  I can't help but think pantera would have just panic bought the whole block if all this was the case.

that's a good point.  in fact, i was right there with everyone encouraging a group effort to knock it down.

of course, it's possible that Pantera was in fact buying it in small, medium, and larger chunks along with the final takedown.

I thought about this too, it would be ballsy not to just panic buy the whole block, if I were running pantera, I would be too afraid of some other bullwhale scooping up the cheap coins I had worked so hard to extract from the market all month.

[brg444]

2.  Pantera Capital, 2 days after the selloff, issues not only one but two uber bullish reports on Bitcoin.  its Bitcoin vs Gold report unapologetically and unabashedly forecasting $4.3M/BTC.  they don't normally publish this frequently:

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Bitcoin-vs-Gold.pdf

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-September-2014.pdf

I'm gonna have to correct this part of your theory.

The Bitcoin vs Gold report was originally published in their September Investors letter.

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-August-2014-31.pdf

[cypherdoc]

2.  Pantera Capital, 2 days after the selloff, issues not only one but two uber bullish reports on Bitcoin.  its Bitcoin vs Gold report unapologetically and unabashedly forecasting $4.3M/BTC.  they don't normally publish this frequently:

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Bitcoin-vs-Gold.pdf

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-September-2014.pdf

I'm gonna have to correct this part of your theory.

The Bitcoin vs Gold report was originally published in their September Investors letter.

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-August-2014-31.pdf

i'm aware of that.  so why republish it 2d after the selloff?

[cypherdoc]

If this we're the case I would think that 30K wall would have been eaten much faster (by pantera), but as far as I can tell it was chipped away by many "smaller" buyers.  I can't help but think pantera would have just panic bought the whole block if all this was the case.

that's a good point.  in fact, i was right there with everyone encouraging a group effort to knock it down.

of course, it's possible that Pantera was in fact buying it in small, medium, and larger chunks along with the final takedown.

I thought about this too, it would be ballsy not to just panic buy the whole block, if I were running pantera, I would be too afraid of some other bullwhale scooping up the cheap coins I had worked so hard to extract from the market all month.

maybe they thought they might be able to get the seller to drop the wall price down even further and then when it didn't budge, they pulled the final trigger to take it all down and call it quits.

the main thing here is, Pantera essentially controls the #1 exchange that the whole community keys off of.  and they probably can see the internal order books.  why not manipulate it for the chance to make extraordinary life changing profits?

[600watt]

imho, when someone is about to sell a major btc chunk (more than tens of thousands of btc in one go) and it was agreed to do this deal on a specific date, and since we talking about a 10 month downtrend, it is hard to imagine that this person would not insist on some -at least weekly- average price.

[cypherdoc]

i put this up an hour ago.  no backlash yet:

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/519908666670329857

[cypherdoc]

imho, when someone is about to sell a major btc chunk (more than tens of thousands of btc in one go) and it was agreed to do this deal on a specific date, and since we talking about a 10 month downtrend, it is hard to imagine that this person would not insist on some -at least weekly- average price.

my theory doesn't depend on a cooperative 30K BTC seller.  i think Pantera forced the price down since June looking for a weak hand whale to capitulate so that they can pick up cheap coins.