[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Anon136]

Sold all my XMR. i will buy back at 0.0020-0.0015

Btw mrkavasaki, this is not an ad hominum, I just think selling in this range isn't a good idea  

But let's see what the market has in store for us.  

He has cojones, you have to give him that. With that kind of trading strategy he will probably be either really wealthy or really poor some day. Not a whole lot of room for in between.

[dEBRUYNE]

Sold all my XMR. i will buy back at 0.0020-0.0015

Btw mrkavasaki, this is not an ad hominum, I just think selling in this range isn't a good idea  

But let's see what the market has in store for us.  

He has cojones, you have to give him that. With that kind of trading strategy he will probably be either really wealthy or really poor some day. Not a whole lot of room for in between.

Agree, I prefer the less risky buy & hold strategy though.

I would not like to see a break of 0.0028 (which is a quadruple bottom at the moment). Breaking this will probably result in a sharp correction and thus a decline in confidence.

I can't wait for the break of that one, and hopefully it will go all the way to 0.0018..

Market...  

That sarcasm? Btw, if I recall correctly, you said it yourself (it could also be ArticMine who said this) that if most people are screaming for it to go down, it will most likely go up.

[dnaleor]

I'll make a bold prediction:

within 60 days, monero will be in the top 5 of the ranking on coinmarketcap.com


Reason? DRK is crashing. Only a few of the whales looking for the best alternative for dash are needed to get us at 12 M USD market cap.
Implosion of DRK will also make people aware of Monero as an alternative. And when they discover the superior tech, it's easy to get there.
Combine this with the current development and we are on the good side of the bet

[Anon136]

I'll make a bold prediction:

within 60 days, monero will be in the top 5 of the ranking on coinmarketcap.com


Reason? DRK is crashing. Only a few of the whales looking for the best alternative for dash are needed to get us at 12 M USD market cap.
Implosion of DRK will also make people aware of Monero as an alternative. And when they discover the superior tech, it's easy to get there.
Combine this with the current development and we are on the good side of the bet

Whats the story with dark crashing? I mean i know it ought to crash. But it ought to have crashed a long time ago and it didn't. So whats different now? Are there any catalysts?

Not really asking you specifically, just anyone who might have some input.

[jehst]

Is DRK "crashing"? Losing 20 or even 50% after a big rally is normal in cryptoland. Normal in precious metals. Not uncommon in equities.

I wouldn't order the casket yet.

XMR vs. DRK is going to be a long, drawn-out battle.

[jehst]

Is DRK "crashing"? Losing 20 or even 50% after a big rally is normal in cryptoland. Normal in precious metals. Not uncommon in equities.

I wouldn't order the casket yet.

again, the only people that are not disturbed by the dash scam still in the top 10 is because they have some stakes in the game, and this is an ad hominem, because you already said you have dash

Did I say I owned DASH or was considering buying some? I don't own any DASH.

[dnaleor]

Is DRK "crashing"? Losing 20 or even 50% after a big rally is normal in cryptoland. Normal in precious metals. Not uncommon in equities.

I wouldn't order the casket yet.

XMR vs. DRK is going to be a long, drawn-out battle.

loosing 50% in a few weeks is normal for coins with a low market cap, it's abnormal for a coin in the top 5. Most of the coins that loose that much who are in the top 5 are doomed.

[dEBRUYNE]

Did I say I owned DASH or was considering buying some? I don't own any DASH.

at least philosophically you own

We shouldn't attack eachother here, jehst is as far as I know a Monero proponent and not a Dash one. Anyway, setting that aside, I don't particulary agree it is crashing (crashing sounds a bit exaggerating in my opinion), but it is tanking though and there is still no bottom in sight (bottoms are usely formed with high volume, v shape bottoms (so sharp retracements)). As you can see when looking at the chart, this isn't the case yet.

@anon136: I try to keep up with their ANN thread and over the last few weeks some unsatisfied people are popping up for a variety of reasons. Also, I think vertoe leaving made some people lose confidence. Furthermore, the statements of gmaxwell (which resulted in toknormal (a big Dash proponent) making a fool of himself), andytoshi and the XMR vs DRK thread in general might have scared away some potential investors who could've sustained the rally.

The replies:

Cryptography has never been a significant part of cryptocurrency - even though it may share the first few letters. It works on a system of digital signatures.

It would seem that you actually do not understand what cryptography is in the modern sense.

A fundamental nature of information is that it wants to be freely copied everywhere to everyone. That any bit is equal and indistinguishable from any other bit of the same value and that any bit is eventually known to all who care.  Cryptography is all that technology by which we hope to confine and constrain the nature of information, to put up fences and direct it to our exclusive purposes, against all attacks and in defiance of the seemingly (and perhaps actually) impossible.  Digital signatures are cryptography by any modern definition and utilize the same tools and techniques (for example, a DSA signature is a linear equation encrypted with an additively homorphic encryption), and suffer from most of the same challenges as the message encryption systems to which you seem to be incorrectly defining cryptography as equivalent.  Moreover, the use of digital signatures isn't the only (or even most relevant) aspect of cryptography in cryptocurrencies-- e.g. the prevention of double spending of otherwise perfectly copyable and indistinguishable information in a decentralized system is a cryptographic problem which we address using cryptographic tools, and-- like all other practical cryptography-- achieve far less than perfect confidence in our solution. As are more modest ends like interacting with strangers but not being subject to resource exhaustion from them.

Far more so than other sub-fields of engineering, cryptographic systems are doing something which is fundamentally at odds with nature and share an incredible fragility and subtly as a result (and perhaps all are failures, we have no proof otherwise).

A failure to understand and respect these considerations has resulted in a lot of harmful garbage and dysfunctional software.

Can you (or Tok) point to a part of a cryptocurrency which isn't cryptography?

the dev team, the website, any part of the wallet not doing a cryptographic function, the buyers, the masternode operators, the network transport, whatever isn't going into a cryptographic function.

This thread is moving pretty quickly (ten pages of mudslinging in half as many hours!) so I'm not sure you'll see this, but there's an important misunderstanding here. You're right that the human beings aren't cryptographic (e.g. the development team, market participants, etc) --- though it's important to observe that this makes them very unsuited to cryptographic functionality. gmaxwell had an elegant description of cryptography as "technology by which we hope to confine and constrain the nature of information" despite information respecting no ownership, borders or morality. He described this as "inherently subtle and fragile", which it is, but this indifference to political and social pressure also make it efficient (human trust is expensive to build and maintain!) and robust against a lot of political and social pressures that human systems are not. This robustness is the cypherpunk motivation for bringing cryptography into everyday life: anything we have the technology to do cryptographically rather than socially ought to be, since social systems can change quickly and unjustly. Nowhere is this more true than finance, so cryptocurrency is a perfect environment for this kind of thing. So cryptocurrencies try to eliminate human decision points wherever possible, and where not they try to set things up so others can't override each others' decisions (hence the value implied by buzzwords like "decentralization" and "censorship resistance" and "public verifiability").

I'm not entirely clear on what masternodes do these days, but I infer that their actions affect users' privacy, i.e. they are "confining and constraining" information. This is a cryptographic function too. Human decisions may factor into their behaviour, but they are still performing a cryptographic function; human involvement does not change this, only changes the failure modes.

All this to say that basically the entirety of cryptocurrency really is cryptography. Even many of the human parts. The network transport is part of the cryptosystem: it needs to be designed to prevent modification of data in transport, authentication of data even when endpoints are anonymous and spoofable, etc. A wallet is part of the cryptosystem: it's responsible for creating verification keys ("scriptPubKeys" in Bitcoin, which are usually abbreviated to addresses) whose corresponding private keys are controlled by the correct parties to the correct extent, and for correctly and securely storing these keys. Wallets are decoupled from the main cryptocurrency cryptosystem, and in particular are not part of the hard part --- consensus code --- but they are certainly cryptographic and are subject to the same sort of subtle missteps as other cryptosystems. (For example, the oft-cited BIP32 "bug" where a party in possession of a public key and chaincode can derive the secret key from a non-hardened child secret key; it would not be hard to come up with a plausible-sounding system which "unintentionally" exposed secret data through this mechanism.)

I'll repeat my above statement: basically the entirety of cryptocurrency really is cryptography. This is important. It's why things are so subtle, why complexity is dangerous, and why changing even trivial-seeming things can have drastic and hard-to-analyze consequences. This is where "a lot of harmful garbage and dysfunctional software" comes from. It's the default for poorly-thought-out systems. And in cryptography, "poorly thought out" means anything less than expert cryptographers spending large amounts of time and effort designing things to be both correct and clearly correct. (Given how few experts there are in the cryptocurrency space, I could tell you that almost all of it is shit just by the pigeonhole principle .)

This is not a cheap standard to hold a system to even if its designers want to; and falsely claiming that something is not cryptographic is an easy way to excuse not wanting to. But such claims do not change reality.

The encryption of data through cryptography is the foundation of cryptocurrencies.

This is simply false.

[mambamanagement]

what is considered a large stash of moneros these days? 

[luigi1111]

what is considered a large stash of moneros these days?  

I would consider anything above 25k moneroj quite large, but if you are a whale it may be nothing.

u r whale ?

[macsga]

what is considered a large stash of moneros these days?  

I would consider anything above 25k moneroj quite large, but if you are a whale it may be nothing.

u r whale ?

A nice stash would be the one that you did not spend so much to own. A perfect stash is (usually) some more than that. I'd say a good number would have been somewhere over 1000 at the moment. At these prices it won't cost you much and I'm sure you're NOT gonna regret having them after a year or so. I said it earlier in this thread; the perfect case is to own as much as possible you can handle to lose and not care; and so much so that if it gets to the moon, you don't blame yourself for not having more.

[luigi1111]

what is considered a large stash of moneros these days?  

I would consider anything above 25k moneroj quite large, but if you are a whale it may be nothing.

u r whale ?

lol I wish I was... i'm but a humble tuna. Im not even close to 25k btw less than 1000 ppl can ever own more than 25k moneroj in this century.

This is very true, and really puts things in perspective.

[smooth]

@anon136: I try to keep up with their ANN thread and over the last few weeks some unsatisfied people are popping up for a variety of reasons. Also, I think vertoe leaving made some people lose confidence. Furthermore, the statements of gmaxwell (which resulted in toknormal (a big Dash proponent) making a fool of himself), andytoshi and the XMR vs DRK thread in general might have scared away some potential investors who could've sustained the rally.

It is no secret that DRK has been propped up by a few whales and the BTC decline while not directly relevant to the DRK/BTC price may be raising some risk-management concern of how much of their wealth they want to dump into it. The same could be said for XMR I suppose, except that XMR has in practice held up better during the recent BTC drop.

[EvanMon]

1 day candle just closed as a green hammer on bitcoinwisdom. That has been a bullish reversal signal multiple times in the past. I think it was rpietila that first pointed that out. About 5000 of the 13500 wall at .00300 got taken out by a single sell. There were about 630 BTC in buy orders that dropped to 407 this afternoon. Volume is very low. I think the question is still open, are we in an uptrend or a downtrend? I think there is btc on the sidelines waiting to find out how this descending triangle plays out.

[Anon136]

1 day candle just closed as a green hammer on bitcoinwisdom. That has been a bullish reversal signal multiple times in the past. I think it was rpietila that first pointed that out. About 5000 of the 13500 wall at .00300 got taken out by a single sell. There were about 630 BTC in buy orders that dropped to 407 this afternoon. Volume is very low. I think the question is still open, are we in an uptrend or a downtrend? I think there is btc on the sidelines waiting to find out how this descending triangle plays out.

Notice something we haven't seen in a long time, resistance.

[explorer]

what is considered a large stash of moneros these days? 

18400 ish  is where I start to call it a large stash (0.1% of total emission before tail inflation begins).  Even still, that's only about $15k today, which is peanuts for many.

There are clearly a number of whales with 10x that out there, but they will diminish as price rises.

[ArticMine]

1 day candle just closed as a green hammer on bitcoinwisdom. That has been a bullish reversal signal multiple times in the past. I think it was rpietila that first pointed that out. About 5000 of the 13500 wall at .00300 got taken out by a single sell. There were about 630 BTC in buy orders that dropped to 407 this afternoon. Volume is very low. I think the question is still open, are we in an uptrend or a downtrend? I think there is btc on the sidelines waiting to find out how this descending triangle plays out.

Notice something we haven't seen in a long time, resistance.

It is a tough call.

Descending triangles are normally considered a bearish pattern more likely to break out on the downside, on the other hand they can break out on the upside and when they do it can be sharp and sudden. I find the changes in the order book also very interesting. Most of the buy orders that have been removed are from below 0.002. This would indicate that these buyers have given up on purchasing XMR below 0.002, have removed their bids in the hope of driving the price down or both. I see also two possible "Swords of Damocles" hanging over the bears in the short term. 1) The database being released. 2) Dash breaking 0.01 on the downside.

This setup is starting to look like a sharp move is coming, the question remains which way.

[oblox]

Holy 30k dump

[tifozi]

@anon136: I try to keep up with their ANN thread and over the last few weeks some unsatisfied people are popping up for a variety of reasons. Also, I think vertoe leaving made some people lose confidence. Furthermore, the statements of gmaxwell (which resulted in toknormal (a big Dash proponent) making a fool of himself), andytoshi and the XMR vs DRK thread in general might have scared away some potential investors who could've sustained the rally.

It is no secret that DRK has been propped up by a few whales and the BTC decline while not directly relevant to the DRK/BTC price may be raising some risk-management concern of how much of their wealth they want to dump into it. The same could be said for XMR I suppose, except that XMR has in practice held up better during the recent BTC drop.

A very big difference is the way BTC whales and prominent Crypto investors and pundits just collect XMR without hyping it up in the media because they see big time potential in XMR. They treat it differently to what LTC and DRK have had to offer and do not want to do a PnD on XMR like they have done to LTC and DRK in the past. It is just a completely different mindset. I have a feeling that people will be shocked when some of the famous names come out in due time. Kudos to the whales who have refused the temptation to PnD even short/mid term and letting everyone be part of XMR and have a grand vision for the future.

[Anon136]

where the heck is this xmr coming from that these whales keep dumping in massive bulk over and over and over again? changes in the price never seem to come from changes in sentiment from the general community, but the unilateral actions of whales. what is the cause of this? when does it end?