[XMR] Monero Speculation

[americanpegasus]

I will.  Intermediate goal is to save up and reach the 10,000 Monero mark (almost there).  I'm pretty sure that should put me in/around the top 100 current holders.  
  
I mean, it's at 50 cents parity before we even have a solid graphical wallet (which sounds juicy from what the devs are saying), and we're only on one reputable exchange.  
  
I like these odds.  I'll poke around and learn more about it over the coming weeks.  I'm still in the first chapters of my "Mathematical Introduction to Cryptography" so I probably won't be able to contribute much technically.  I have other talents though.

[binaryFate]

I will.  Intermediate goal is to save up and reach the 10,000 Monero mark (almost there).  I'm pretty sure that should put me in/around the top 100 current holders.  
  
I mean, it's at 50 cents parity before we even have a solid graphical wallet (which sounds juicy from what the devs are saying), and we're only on one reputable exchange.  
  
I like these odds.  I'll poke around and learn more about it over the coming weeks.  I'm still in the first chapters of my "Mathematical Introduction to Cryptography" so I probably won't be able to contribute much technically.  I have other talents though.

Indeed. Naysayers constantly complain at the lack of things *they* consider as fundamental (which truly are not), like GUI. They don't realize that the fact it's not there yet is part of the "investment", if you come to Monero as an investment. A gigantic potential value lays completely unrealized yet.

[celestio]

I've grown sentimentally attached to this currency even though all my $ is currently in fiat. Kind of ironic I know, but goes to show that you can have faith in things without any personal selfish financial goal in mind.

[jehst]

Americanpegasus, was it you that caused the big bitcoin dump today?

[americanpegasus]

Americanpegasus, was it you that caused the big bitcoin dump today?

Dude, I know I spit a tight game, but I'm small potatoes.  I don't own anywhere near the 3000 coins that were involved in today's dump.

[GingerAle]

Americanpegasus, was it you that caused the big bitcoin dump today?

Dude, I know I spit a tight game, but I'm small potatoes.  I don't own anywhere near the 3000 coins that were involved in today's dump.

well its bitcoin. We could trace the coins if we really cared. Or hire "XYZ blockchain analytics" to trace them for us.

[ArticMine]

I will.  Intermediate goal is to save up and reach the 10,000 Monero mark (almost there).  I'm pretty sure that should put me in/around the top 100 current holders.  
  
I mean, it's at 50 cents parity before we even have a solid graphical wallet (which sounds juicy from what the devs are saying), and we're only on one reputable exchange.  
  
I like these odds.  I'll poke around and learn more about it over the coming weeks.  I'm still in the first chapters of my "Mathematical Introduction to Cryptography" so I probably won't be able to contribute much technically.  I have other talents though.

Welcome. Your are not the only one because there was an over 20,000 XMR spike just over an hour ago.

[Bassica]

I will.  Intermediate goal is to save up and reach the 10,000 Monero mark (almost there).  I'm pretty sure that should put me in/around the top 100 current holders.  
  
I mean, it's at 50 cents parity before we even have a solid graphical wallet (which sounds juicy from what the devs are saying), and we're only on one reputable exchange.  
  
I like these odds.  I'll poke around and learn more about it over the coming weeks.  I'm still in the first chapters of my "Mathematical Introduction to Cryptography" so I probably won't be able to contribute much technically.  I have other talents though.

Welcome. Your are not the only one because there was an over 20,000 XMR spike just over an hour ago.

Indeed, that was a solid marketbuy, and a smart one for that matter. Some of the bidwall action is moving forward already. It's looking good technically.

[rpietila]

Indeed. Naysayers constantly complain at the lack of things *they* consider as fundamental (which truly are not), like GUI. They don't realize that the fact it's not there yet is part of the "investment", if you come to Monero as an investment. A gigantic potential value lays completely unrealized yet.

What I mentioned some time ago, but got sidetracked, The Monero Investment Group and its associated website, it is now coming to fruition. I found a new partner and the idea is to make an introduction/resource website for XMR investment, not at all focused on the technical side of things, such as the blockchain, wallets, security or anything that is important, but is already covered very much by the existing resources.

What we aim to present, is already existing in this thread and the Monero Economics thread, mainly in my own posts. The guiding idea is that a new asset class is being born, and may become as important as the existing ones: precious metals, land and its derivatives (agriculture, mining, industry, habitation), business and its derivatives (stocks), and obligations (cash, bonds, funds etc.). If the change indeed happens, , the ramifications for XMR valuation are nothing but astounding. A 1000-fold increase in price in the long run can be considered a failure.

[DaveyJones]

Indeed. Naysayers constantly complain at the lack of things *they* consider as fundamental (which truly are not), like GUI. They don't realize that the fact it's not there yet is part of the "investment", if you come to Monero as an investment. A gigantic potential value lays completely unrealized yet.

What I mentioned some time ago, but got sidetracked, The Monero Investment Group and its associated website, it is now coming to fruition. I found a new partner and the idea is to make an introduction/resource website for XMR investment, not at all focused on the technical side of things, such as the blockchain, wallets, security or anything that is important, but is already covered very much by the existing resources.

What we aim to present, is already existing in this thread and the Monero Economics thread, mainly in my own posts. The guiding idea is that a new asset class is being born, and may become as important as the existing ones: precious metals, land and its derivatives (agriculture, mining, industry, habitation), business and its derivatives (stocks), and obligations (cash, bonds, funds etc.). If the change indeed happens, , the ramifications for XMR valuation are nothing but astounding. A 1000-fold increase in price in the long run can be considered a failure.

looking forward to that

[Anon136]

woah. this thread just randomly died. never seen it quiet so long.

[Anon136]

shit's about to get real.

the quiet before the storm?

[explorer]

shit's about to get real.

the quiet before the storm?

Just look at that bid mountain 

[rpietila]

Crosspost for the paramount importance:

hard fork of Monero to incorporate the bitcoin ledger as well

And an impossible one without breaking trust in both currencies.  It is tremendously more likely to see the value of one of these coins shift into the other than for them to merge.  In the short term that value will want to go into bitcoin.  But in the long term, if XMR does not shift ALL its value in that direction the probability of the opposite shift rises continuously.

+1.

Bitcoin is the King of crypto, commanding 93% of the total marketcap. It's nice to be a king, but it has the downside that you can only be dethroned, never advance

Of course I believe that BTC has a great possibility to go up in purchasing power, even by a factor of 1,000 (after all it's my biggest holding, would not be if I did not think so ) but in terms of relative market share, it can only go down (or 7% up if all the other current and future cryptos are abandoned, which is unlikely).

The sway that Bitcoin holds in cryptosphere is so great that it is very difficult for an altcoin to gain traction. But if any of them does to a sufficient degree, I take it as a strong indication that the market is making a shift.

If any one of the altcoins gains a 20% share of the total cryptocoin marketcap, the value in Bitcoin will likely move to that coin.

Caveats:
- No gimmicks. Short-term volatility is excluded. Sufficient trading volume.
- Marketcap must be calculated from the free-trading amount, leaving some room for total planned issuance (future mining) to be taken into account.

It does not take more than 10-25% of the value in Bitcoin to decide to migrate, to trash the Bitcoin remaining value, and make the value of the alt mushroom. For historical reference, Bitcoin marketcap went from about $1M to $200M in 2010-2011 in less than a year. During that period, only about $10M was invested into bitcoins. The rest was wealth effect. The same mechanism applied to the potential migration situation can make the contender quite valuable if only 2% of the wealth in Bitcoin decides to move (and inflict a proportional loss to the remaining bitcoin holdings).

I repeat in bold, because the issue is important: Not every Bitcoin holder needs to sell all their bitcoins for the value to plummet and the alt to take over. It is enough that 10-25% do it, then the ones who migrated will gain the value (as appreciation of the new coin) which was stored in the 75-90% of bitcoins (whose value has plummeted), while the coins still belong to the bagholders. If this were not true, there would be no change in the world, and Bitcoin itself would never have had any traction whatsoever.

I am not always correct, and even when I am, I tend to be ahead of the time. Don't sell your bitcoins, but make sure you have at least the same proportional amount of coins in every alt that has the slightest chance of making it. (It costs basically nothing but your bitcoin maximalism pride).

This is what I have done. And Monero is the only one I believe has the chance currently. I will tell when the situation changes.

[nakaone]

I do not share ristos insight on the transfer of value. neither do I think that bitcoin will be dethroned, I'd rather assume that it will not only be king but also pope by the adoption of TPTB. It will lose its libertarian and unregulated status and lots of people here will get a proper compensation for that the most proper argumentation regarding losing his first mover advantage was given  by peter r in the altcoin observer: he argues that you do not invest in technology (of bitcoin) but in the ledger - I think he is right.

Nevertheless I do not think that bitcoin can or will adopt moneros specifications and monero will probably be what many people think bitcoin ist - the libertarian wet dream

[rpietila]

I do not share ristos insight on the transfer of value. neither do I think that bitcoin will be dethroned, I'd rather assume that it will not only be king but also pope by the adoption of TPTB. It will lose its libertarian and unregulated status and lots of people here will get a proper compensation for that the most proper argumentation regarding losing his first mover advantage was given  by peter r in the altcoin observer: he argues that you do not invest in technology (of bitcoin) but in the ledger - I think he is right.

Nevertheless I do not think that bitcoin can or will adopt moneros specifications and monero will probably be what many people think bitcoin ist - the libertarian wet dream

^ I fully agree that this is one, and very possible scenario.

(while asserting that it's good to watch the 20% line since it will trigger the scenario I outlined.. )

[macsga]

I share the same rumination with Rpietila regarding the significance of the "rival" coin. I too believe that XMR will have its chance of becoming the "new kid in town" after a certain time period (BTW: I think we're nowhere near that point right now). We all intimately know what's at stake with XMR; and I tend to concur with nakaone's prediction for the future of BTC.

IMHO, TPTB are already on track of the accumulation phase and I think within the next couple of years only a fraction of coins will be held by the original believers. We witnessed many old timers here abandoning their positions when they were convinced that the consolidation period will last forever (with the price declining even further).

There's a saying for when you don't understand something in full. "When in doubt, follow the money". The evidence is out there; so are the options. I prefer being on board instead of leaving myself behind. My position on XMR is not significant (regarding my BTC holdings) but it's something that I'm willing to sacrifice if it goes to 0, or be very happy that I got in with those, if it goes 1:1 with BTC.

[cAPSLOCK]

Thanks Risto, naka, mac.  These are good thoughts.  They remind us why we are here.

At the very beginning of my interest in Monero one lightbulb went on which led me to take a stake.  It was the idea that Monero offered the cleanest version of a solution to bitcoins privacy problem.   Or put another way Monero offered a utility that bitcoin could never really offer and remain bitcoin.

My first impressions of Monero's utility were not as the currency of the black markets as some have seemed to think, but as a private store of value.  Monero offered the potential of a private store of value that bitcoin has difficulty doing, and arguably cannot do.  I thought of Monero in the anaolgy of being a "private offshore account".  A place people could find the freedom of privacy with finances in the realm of crypto currency.

If anyone can guess how many monero I hold at a specific address I will give them all of it.

Good luck.

I liked that the devs saw Monero addresses as "accounts" as opposed to wallets since I think it better implies this functionality.

The other key aspect for me has been the fact that Monero is not "feature rich".  It does not try to add a bunch of whiz-bang features to the bitcoin base.  It just implements simple, strong, peer reviewed cryptography.  A kind of cryptography which offers functionality that, like I said, bitcoin probably never will.

[rangedriver]

If anyone can guess how many monero I hold at a specific address I will give them all of it.
 

88,422

[camu6]

Looks like there were almost no <0.002 moneroj for sale. The bidside looks strong, up we go.