That figure does NOT support the underlying thesis as both ARK and Buffett claim to invest long term, he is just better at it (so far), that's all.
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Finally saw Avatar 2: The Way of Water. Pretty great. Top Gun Maverick is still probably my favourite movie of 2022, but this came very, very close. Super enjoyable. I agree.. with just one suggestion...DO NOT watch it in 3D...looks a bit cartoonish a first few minutes before you get used to it, but then everything is smooth. Looking forward to A3...was reading some rumors about the plot...in short, it might go beyond Pandora. How? It remains to be seen.
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Happy and prosperous New Year, WO!
side note: be like M. Saylor...take those tax losses against the gains (if you have those).
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Bull runs occur every 4 years :
I'm actually kind of hoping for two red years in a row just to shut these fucking retarded hand-wavy analytics down. if only we could "shut them down'' without a second red handle, it would be cool too, but i totally get the wish. OT: it occured to me that ChartBuddy "burned" at least 1 bil addresses for that "vanity". Kind of wasteful.
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Glad I didn't buy any Tesla shares. Fuck sake. It's in a total death spiral now. America likes to build someone up and then tear them down....and some years later (if they are still around)...rebuild them again. So many examples.
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Glad I didn't buy any Tesla shares. Fuck sake. It's in a total death spiral now. starts to looks like a shitcoin chart META, NFLX and TSLA all did about 75% drop from the highs. Considering that two of those had the market cap more than a tril, it is quite astonishing. The question is, what they are going to do going forward? People don't want to look back too much, but about 50-60 years ago (I wasn't investing back then, just read books about it more recently), there were nifty fifty (50 large caps in US) in the 60ies and 70ies. They were as "untouchable" as the FAANG stocks were before. Those nifty fity were up even when others were down. Finally, the 1973-1974 bear market dropped them hard (75% or more)-and most never recovered their prior outperformance (Walmart was the exception). The point is that it is unlikely that most of the top techs would outperform from the middle of this decade going forward. Both AAPL and MSFT were founded in the mid-late seventies...we shall find new stonks like this at or after 2025-2026 (apart from btc, which should be the center of the portfolio).
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I typically think that bitboy is a bit obnoxious, pushing s-tcoins, yada, yada, but here is a pretty good summation of, basically, three possibilities for bitcoin in 2023 and going forward: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SN1aowWFA2UI happen to agree with a conventional "cycle" scenario as being the most likely. We shall see. without actually watching the video (don't wanna contribute by giving him a view) ....let me guess... 3 possibilities.... is it up, down, and sideways ?? nope
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I typically think that bitboy is a bit obnoxious, pushing s-tcoins, yada, yada, but here is a pretty good summation of, basically, three possibilities for bitcoin in 2023 and going forward: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SN1aowWFA2UI happen to agree with a conventional "cycle" scenario as being the most likely. We shall see.
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‘Hey LFC_Bitcoin, tell us again about that time you went all in on BTC when everyone else laughed & called it a ponzi. I love that story, you absolute fucking Chad, especially at Christmas after a few wines’ 🎄🎅🧡 your GF? Nice... Merry Christmas!
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Something is up:
<snip>So this really looks like a major mining capitulation.
Of course it is Christmas and a lot of people are off work but this is a big diff shift.
Very often large difficulty drops if sustained push the price down.
Be ready to a price drop into the 15k range. maybe the elusive 13/14k is in sight.
you get it exactly backwards, imho. difficulty drop does not affect the price, it's the other way around. why your thesis is incorrect: if difficulty drops cause price to decrease, then difficulty rise would have to cause price to increase, but we have almost 3X difficulty in comparison with Nov 2021 when bitcoin was at about 70K (more than 4X higher). Once the price is "too low" the dificulty temporarily drops because marginal/unprofitable miners disconnect. Once thing is right, though...typically two periods (or more) of significant difficulty drops indicate a price bottom (going forward).
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<snip>..sorry it was becoming too long to quote
How the fuck do you write so much ? Not complaining as I post like a mofo but not with the precise writing that you try to do. I tend to write like James Joyce just let it rip. Stream of consciousness style. I have a USA based theory of why the gov does these games with interest. I base it on the Long Island railroad retirement system. see below: My step dad is 90 years old. He worked for the Long Island Railroad from the age of 22 to 52 he has been in retirement for 38 years. 8 years longer than he worked. his son my stepbrother is 60 he got a job in 1984 or 1985 with the long Island railroad he was 22 or 23. He retired at 55 he is on pension for 7 years. his son is 25 he is working at the Long Island railroad for 3 years. The model above does not work cannot work if every family in the USA was setup the way they are it all falls apart. So the feds play pendulum with war ,interest rates ,unemployment . In an effort to keep it all from imploding. Now I would argue it has not fully imploded since 1929-1939 which they fixed with WWII. I am hoping they avoid the next full implosion better than they did back then. We will have a much better idea by 2024 Nov just how fucked the USA will be. You are definitely on to something here. Soc sec is 20 tril "in the hole", yet more than 50% seniors depend on it and they paid into it...calling it a "benefit' is a bit disingenuous. I have no idea how they will "fix" this. At least soc sec has COLA, many regular pensions don't have it, so payment streams slowly dwindle (in value). Peeps would have to think hard how to finance their potential longevity and bitcoin should be a big part of that. For those who are interested, here is something about some US states attitude toward educators: 1. You cannot bargain for salary/benefits increase through work stoppage (by law). 2. You cannot pay into social security. Instead, you are obligated to pay to a pension fund, which does not provide COLA (cost of living adjustment). 3. Once you get that pension, you are being deducted half of the pension yearly amount from your soc sec (called WEP). Some complicated rules might make it less expensive, but you need to clock more than 30 years outside to be free of the WEP. For some, it probably wipes out their social security entirely. 4. My state is 49th in both salary and benefits for educators, but see point#1. It's not that i complain about the situation, it's the fact that, unless you leave education altogether, you cannot change your situation and once you logged 5 years in education, you cannot prevent that value subtraction. You can ask: why bother to work in education? My personal answer is: For most part, I didn't, but my work career is coming to a close (I hope to decide this on my own, though), so it does not matter much, I am just commenting on the situation. In addition: my IRAs and bitcoin would, hopefully, provide the bulk of the future cash flows.
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Houston (TX, USA) weather:
Dec 15: 71F (21.7C). Dec 23: 17.6F (-8C). A crazy temp drop during just 12 hr, multiple power outages, but no system-wide outage this time. My home lost power for about 12hr (I cannot install nat gas automatic generator due to some bs with zoning requirements-will try to force next year regardless, screw warranty). Dec 28: 77F (25C)<-predicted
This is the CRAZIEST weather ever. I don't know what is causing it, but if it continues, it would be trouble.
Re early 2023 in bitcoin: we shall see if it would develop like in 2018 to 2019 OR 2014 to 2015 or something new entirely. Imho, chances are 45%, 35%, 20%, respectively.
Right, what could it be, its like happening worldwide, almost like global something something or some such thing? Guess its just too complicated for anyone to figure out, really wish someone had warned us this was coming I am aware of the global warming suggestions and even data, but it would be kind of crazy to say that global warming is causing a freeze in all 50 (maybe 49) states. if you would call it global climate disturbance (instead of 'warming"), then I might agree. Yes, the warming is inevitable...and in 1 bil years, all water would evaporate (due to an increase in Sun's radiance), but, intermittantly, ice ages are also possible, humans being here or not. @jjg...taking your sayings at a face value...man, you were looking for me in H-town? ha, don't know if it is interesting or disturbing..maybe both.
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Houston (TX, USA) weather:
Dec 15: 71F (21.7C). Dec 23: 17.6F (-8C). A crazy temp drop during just 12 hr, multiple power outages, but no system-wide outage this time. My home lost power for about 12hr (I cannot install nat gas automatic generator due to some bs with zoning requirements-will try to force next year regardless, screw warranty). Dec 28: 77F (25C)<-predicted
This is the CRAZIEST weather ever. I don't know what is causing it, but if it continues, it would be trouble.
Re early 2023 in bitcoin: we shall see if it would develop like in 2018 to 2019 OR 2014 to 2015 or something new entirely. Imho, chances are 45%, 35%, 20%, respectively.
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If someone wants to listen to a macro story: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EI_M4o2mrs8F. Zulauf is amazing, I wish i listened more to him at the end of last year. He used to be Barron's round table member for decades. However, they did not discuss bitcoin, just stonks and bonds. From their discussion: Fed will probably pivot in Q2 and it will be risk-on in the second half of 2023, but before that-recession and earnings decline. I figure, end of Q1-early Q2 might be a perfect time to buy pretty much everything, including bitcoin. However, they predict that this would be just a cyclical rally with more interest rates jump in 2024 into 2025.
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Oh I see you met. PENIS I'm no legend but I got it correctly. correct, but it's like a middle school level humor, sorry.
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Government passes a hugely inflationary spending bill and we're heading down? Logic.
people want high fed rates for their bonds. If you have $$$ and get a five year bond at 3.71% they are betting rates go up and they will stagger up. Ie buy a five year today at 3.71 buy a 5 year in six weeks at 4.20 buy a 5 year in 12 weeks at 4.71 buy a 5 year in 18 weeks at 5.21 then hope for pivot. you are loaded up for next 5 years with rates between 3.71 and 5.21 and the USD is the best dollar token there is. This does not attract a guy without $$$ but if you have $$$ it looks like a good play. Or...you have rates at 10% in 5 years and you did not do as good as you expected. I think shorter duration, like 2 years is a better bet once we get to 5% short term rates, but I already allocated enough for something like that. Right now, I am positioning to buy a few things/assets in the next 3-6 mo, including bitcoin. Stonks are cratering, what a market: more than 1000 points up and down in two days.
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@OP (Santa poster) and WO gays...sorry, I have no idea what "muscled" Santa manifested, lol. Perhaps, I can guess, though.
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Do we even "need" alts? : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwplJmMWSHoInvestAnswers "James" has a discussion of 15 points given by a bitcoin maximalist 'Airstyles'. Apparently, James is 80% in btc...but not 100%. He tries to defend some alt usage, but not aggressively. Some interesting graphs and points ensued...and I learned something new about decentralization, wallet #, etc.
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